Today's Hitter Breakdown: September 9th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2013-09-09 04:57:24

I feel as if baseball has already taken a back seat to football after this weekend, however the real story is that during the week, baseball is still the game with the most action if you want to play Monday-Friday. After a long weekend of sweating football, its time to switch gears a bit and get back to some fantasy baseball and playoff races.

With only a month left in the season, this year’s Park Factors should be very representative of how the parks this year have played. There are still some irregularities, however they should work themselves out in time.

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Today’s Hitters to Target

• Michael Morse is not half as bad as he is playing right now and it does not appear that that change in scenery has immediately changed his season. Morse has a huge power bat and can send one out at any time along with being almost minimum salary. Morse gets a great shot tonight against Sabathia who has been consistently terrible away from home and against righties this year allowing a 5.56 ERA away and 23 homers to right handers.

• The Orioles need to keep getting Danny Valencia at bats against left handers because he is just destroying them. He has hit 4 homers and 1.094 OPS in 72 at bats against them. In the highest over/under game of the night against this year’s version of Sabathia, he makes a very solid play.

• Robinson Cano price is back at the top of the 2nd base charts, but he still makes a sweet play in situations like this. He obliterates left handers and gets to face Tillman who has given up 20 homers at home this year. Tillman is prone to implosions and this Yankees offense has been much better since getting some of their guys back from injury.

• I love Todd Frazier tonight in one of the highest over/under games of the night. Frazier gets to face Travis Wood who he has owned in their history with 2 homers and 6 hits in 14 at bats against the lefty. Wood has given up 4 homers in the last 3 games and has given up 14 homers to righties this year.

• All of the helium has gone out of Leonys Martin popular play balloon recently as he has been terrible in the last month. It appears as if he is getting it together again with 4 straight games with hits and runs and looks like he is making better contact. He should be cheap everywhere and always has the ability to swipe a couple of bags.

• Victor Martinez has cooled in the last week but his numbers in July and August are still incredible and his 9 for 16 career mark against Sale is really solid. Martinez can switch hit so he can get at Sale’s weak side where Martinez has been so strong for years at hitting left handers.

• Mike Trout makes the top play of the day today and should be well worth his price. He faces Pedro Hernandez who has been inept at getting right handers out allowing a 1.001 OPS and 7 homers in 123 at bats. Trout is a stud, and you’ll have to pay to get him so any time he has a pitcher who is asking to be destroyed, you have to consider him.

• I really like Erick Aybar today as a shortstop play as he is playing in one of the 2 most stackable lineups and is going to be an affordable option. As noted above, Hernandez has been horrible against right handed batters and Aybar should be able to put a good game in play.

• Even in Marlins Park today, the Braves could have a solid game as they have the left handers that can do in Alvarez. Alvarez has allowed lefties to hit at a .323 clip and a .868 OPS. Freeman has crushed right handers hitting 17 homers against them and a .936 OPS. Freeman as well has hit well against Alvarez in their short history with 4 hits in 7 at bats and a homer.

• A cheap off the wall pick who could perform well today is Chris Colabello. He has actually been hitting well in the last week save 2 days and has been better against right handers than lefties this year. He has hit 6 homers against his same handed counterparts and Jered Weaver is actually a bit worse against righties. Colabello is my favorite against the grain pick today.

Today’s Hitters to Avoid

• I do not like Ichiro Suzuki today even in what should be the highest scoring game of the night. Ichiro has struggled against Tillman in their careers going 2 for 16 and Ichiro has really struggled against right handers this year only hitting them at a .610 OPS. I do not like him or Soriano on the Yankees tonight.

• I remember at the beginning of last year when Asdrubal Cabrera was the hottest thing on the shortstop market since Derek Jeter, however those thoughts were much too premature. Cabrera has struggled mightily this year and even with Cleveland’s offense picking up a bit Cabrera is still struggling. Santana has owned the Indians in his career, especially Cabrera holding him to 6 for 31 with a .587 OPS.

• I must be crazy recommending sitting Andrew McCutchen right now. Well, even though he is a solid high floor guy who will produce something almost every night, I do not like his potential here against Darvish. Darvish is a high K guy, who when on, is completely dominant. McCutchen hits poorly away from PNC and worse against right handed pitching so tonight is not the time to take advantage of his sky high salary.

• Paul Konerko is having somewhat of a resurgence this month but that still does not make up for his awful season so far against right handed pitching. Konerko has had his worst season so far against righties and has really struggled against Scherzer as well in their careers only getting 8 hits in 37 at bats and striking out 16 times.

• Austin Jackson is one of my least favorite plays of the night even though he has picked up his hitting left handed pitching recently. Jackson has been horrid against lefties on the year with a .669 OPS and has never in his career been good against them. Sale is a solid pitcher who has also gotten the best of Jackson, holding him to 2 for 23 with 9 strikeouts. There are a ton better options in the outfield.

• Call me crazy, but even though Hunter Pence has been tearing it up lately, a game at AT&T against a right hander like Chacin just is not giving me confidence to plug him in. His salary is going to be the highest it has been in a while, and he is hurting against right handers with a .739 OPS. Chacin has been solid away from home and against right handers so do not let Pence’s hot streak influence you here.

• Tonight we get another round of guessing whether we will see Timmy the Trainwreck or the Freak. I am going to venture that we get to see the old Lincecum as he will be facing a Rockies team in a pitcher’s park which is never good for them. Rutledge has been hot lately but owns a 3 for 16 mark off Lincecum in their careers, and those numbers are post-Freak collapse as well. I am not high on the Rockies and think we could see a gem from Lincecum.

• Since coming to the Dodgers it actually appears that Nolasco figured out how to pitch. He has had some really good games lately, and in his bad ones only allows 2 runs. He gets to pitch at home tonight against a team which really has no good righty killers. Gerardo Parra usually does good damage against right handers but he is in a slump and has managed 1 hit off Nolasco in 14 at bats. To make matters worse, Parra hits much better at home, so he could be in line for a poor showing here.

• I am beginning to think how Adrian Beltre goes is how the Rangers go. He is no doubt their most important piece right now, and he is really struggling, so no coincidence they have lost a bunch of games in September. Beltre has been horrid against righies in the last few weeks and he faces Cole tonight who has ploddingly boring with his stats, not imploding, and not striking many out, but holding teams to 1-4 runs. I just don’t like the Beltre upside tonight.

• I long ragged on Alexei Ramirez about how he was a terrible fantasy player because he did not do much with the bat, and then he began to have some really nice games. Well, he is back to being old boring Alexei without power. His matchup against Scherzer is not one I want to test as he has a 4 for 37 history against him and Scherzer has been one of the best in the game lately. The White Sox are my least favorite team to play today.