Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros - Game 1 Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Twins vs. Astros Odds
| Twins Odds | +135 |
| Astros Odds | -155 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Date | Sat, Oct. 7 |
| Time | 4:45 p.m. |
| TV | FS1 |
Fresh off of their first postseason series victory since 2002, the Minnesota Twins will meet the Houston Astros on Saturday to begin their AL Division Series matchup. In stark contrast to the Twins’ recent postseason struggles, the Astros have made it to the American League Championship Series or further each of the last six seasons. First pitch for Game 1 between these two organizations is scheduled for 4:45 p.m. ET on Saturday from Minute Maid Park. The roof will be closed.
Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Astros as -155 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 7.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Minnesota Twins
Bailey Ober gets surprise start to open ALDS
Despite having Joe Ryan available and rested, manager Rocco Baldelli has opted to hand the ball to Bailey Ober to start Game 1 against the Astros. Given that Pablo Lopez has been confirmed for Game 2 and Sonny Gray confirmed as the Game 3 starter, it is more likely than not that Kenta Maeda will be available in relief of Ober on Saturday for multiple innings.
In his last seven turns through the rotation during the regular season, Ober allowed two earned runs or fewer six times. However, he allowed five earned runs to the Texas Rangers on August 27, which was his only matchup against an American League playoff team in that span. Ober will throw strikes, but he ranked in only the 23rd percentile in barrel rate in 2023 and gets fewer ground balls than almost any pitcher in baseball – not exactly a recipe for postseason success against a potent Houston offense.
Do the Twins have the offensive firepower necessary to compete with the Astros?
In two games against the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card round, Minnesota scored only five total runs. Even more alarming, the Twins had only 10 total at-bats with runners-in-scoring-position across the two games. Yet there are reasons to be optimistic about this Minnesota lineup going into their matchup against Houston.
Across their last 22 regular season games, the Twins had the 5th-most home runs of any offense in the big leagues, which is typically a recipe for success in the postseason where the long ball is king. During the final month of the regular season, the Twins ranked 5th in OPS, 5th in ISO, 1st in walk percentage, and 21st in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Facing Verlander in Game 1, a pitcher who has struggled to generate many swings and misses across the last two months, Minnesota’s offense could be in for their best performance yet this postseason.
Minnesota looking to leverage bullpen advantage to get to ALCS
In their first two postseason games this October, Minnesota’s bullpen has covered 7.1 innings without allowing a run. Jhoan Duran, the team’s 100 mph+ flamethrower, is the headliner of this relief corps, but his dominance should not overshadow the excellence of guys like Louie Varland and Griffin Jax – each of whom posted a 27.4% strikeout rate or better across the final two months of the regular season. If Caleb Thielbar can keep the ball in the yard in this series, it will go a long way in keeping this unit from overtaxing their high-leverage options. Manager Rocco Baldelli has plenty of swing-and-miss options to choose from in this unit – depth depends largely on how well they can limit home runs.
Houston Astros
Justin Verlander gets the ball in Game 1 for Houston
On Saturday, Justin Verlander will make his 36th career postseason appearance. Since debuting in the early 2000s, Verlander has compiled a 16-11 postseason record, posting a 3.64 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 27.2% strikeout rate, and 8.0% walk percentage. He has been at his best in the ALDS, with an 8-1 record in 14 career starts.
However, it is worth noting that the Verlander of old is not the same Verlander who will be on the bump for tomorrow’s series opener. After being reacquired by the Astros at the deadline this summer, Verlander posted a 3.31 ERA, 3.92 FIP, and 1.12 WHIP across 11 turns in the rotation. His strikeout numbers and swing-and-miss ability were both rather pedestrian compared to his numbers from the second half of last season. His velocity is down a tick in 2023, which has led to more hard contact, more overall contact allowed, and far fewer swings from opposing batters on pitches outside of the strike zone. There are legitimate reasons to fade Verlander here, especially at the current moneyline price for Houston in Game 1.
What to expect from the Houston offense
Consistent with previous seasons, this Houston offensive attack is one of the most dangerous of any team in the playoffs. In September, the Astros’ offense ranked 2nd in OPS, 4th in ISO, 25th in walk percentage, and struck out less frequently than every other offense in the American League. Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, and Yordan Alvarez are unquestionably the best top-of-the-order left playing baseball in the American League. If this lineup can get any meaningful contributions from Jose Abreu, Michael Brantley, Chas McCormick, or Jeremy Pena, they will be tough to beat.
Astros’ bullpen lacking familiar depth
Across the final two months of the 2022 regular season, Houston had seven different relievers throw at least 16.1 innings while posting a 3.00 FIP or better. During that same stretch in 2023, Houston had only two relievers meet that criteria. Expanding the criteria, the Astros had only five relievers post a sub-4.00 FIP with at least 16.0 innings of work across August and September this season. Simply, manager Dusty Baker does not have the same level of depth at his disposal that he had last year when he led this organization to a title.
Twins vs. Astros – Picks & Predictions
Bailey Ober is not an ideal candidate to start Game 1 of any playoff series, but he finished 2023 with a respectable 3.48 FIP and 1.06 WHIP on the road. Assuming Ober is on a short leash in this contest, the combination of Kenta Maeda and the rest of Minnesota’s high-leverage bullpen arms give the Twins good value in the series opener against an overvalued Justin Verlander and a surprisingly thin Houston arm barn. If The Twins’ offense can exhibit a patient approach and get into the Astros’ bullpen prior to the seventh inning, there is a decent chance we see the underdog come away with a win in this spot.
PICK: Twins Moneyline (+135, Fanatics Sportsbook)