Utilizing NFL DFS Sims for Week 10 DraftKings Lineups
NFL DFS Sims has arrived in the form of SimLabs. You can learn more about how to utilize SimLabs by reading our DFS Sims FAQ.
Where an optimizer generates lineups via user customization and the user grades the lineups, SimLabs simulates the field and rates the lineups for the user.
Every week, we’ll take a late look at the SimLabs output and briefly discuss any takeaways. For Week 10, there’s a lot of affirmation of the Bengals great chalk, the quality leverage in playing 49ers in abundance, and the absurdity of playing the Cowboys DST very much.
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Bengals Stacks
Editor’s Note: JaMarr Chase is a game-time decision as of Sunday morning, per Ian Rapoport.
The Bengals are a great stack this week. One of the best QBs in the league throwing to one of the best WRs in the league very often.
Joe Burrow projects the best, JaMarr Chase is tied with Amon-Ra St. Brown as the top WR, and the Bengals have the second-highest implied total on the slate (26.75). It’s to be expected that they’ll be heavily owned, but how much should we be using them?
Using SimLabs default settings, I ran a batch of 150 lineups to find that Bengals ratings are overwhelmingly exposing ourselves to them.
- Joe Burrow, 40.67%
- JaMarr Chase, 16.67%
- Tyler Boyd, 38.67%
- Joe Mixon, 30.67%
I’m a bit surprised at Mixon’s exposure, given the wealth of RBs on the slate, but he projects well and it’ll take a lot of lineups to get overweight on him. SimLabs wants to go overweight on the Bengals and that isn’t nuts.
There’s also the notion that the Burrow-Chase stacks go underowned. Probably a mixture of their salaries with the value we have in Boyd and Trenton Irwin.
#Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase, questionable with a back injury, is considered 50-50 at best to play, per me and
MikeGarafolo</a>. While there was no structural damage, he's in pain and it's unclear how functional he'll be. They'll keep the door open until game-time for him.</p>— Ian Rapoport (RapSheet) November 12, 2023
Gold Rushing with the Niners
Geno Smith projects for exactly one mean point more than Brock Purdy and is only $100 more. But Smith is projected for 12.9% ownership and Purdy 6.4%.
I banged the drum for running Purdy ahead of Smith in single-entry this week and SimLabs is rating Purdy lineups far better than Smith’s.
The 150-set is exposed to Purdy in 10.67% of lineups, while only to Smith in 8.67%. The former overweight on the field and the latter slightly underweight. Christian McCaffrey and Kenneth Walker exposure are under 10% for both, but the other Niners eclipse the Seahawks:
- Brandon Aiyuk, 18.00%
- Tyler Lockett, 12.00%
- Deebo Samuel, 9.33%
- DK Metcalf, 4.67%
37.33% of lineups contain 49ers, while 24,67% contain Seahawks.
While we’re on team exposures, the Bengals carry the heaviest exposure at 80.67%, but it’s actually the Cardinals (62.67%), Texans (60.00%), and Jaguars (59.33%) who come in the tightly in the next three spots.
Cowboys DST Perfect Storm of Bad Play
The Cowboys DST is the best DST on the board. The Giants implied total is so small the girls are giggling (11.0, tee-hee-hee) as a result of a third-string QB who is literally living on his parents’ couch and a whole host of other injuries plaguing the squad.
It’s reasonable to want to play this defense in a vacuum, but we don’t play DFS in a vacuum. We live in a world of salary cap, a great DFS mind likes to say, and ownership is a cost.
SimLabs has the Cowboys DST at 17.5% ownership, but only 7.33% of SimLabs lineups are exposed to them.
It’s really hard to find a batch of highly-rated lineups in this universe with $4,400 DSTs. This is an ungodly great spot and we’re seeing the sims go greatly underweight.
It’s in the Syllabus
Visit our SimLabs Discord channel to read the discussions people are having about their experience and raise any question. That said, the SimLabs FAQ is extraordinarily fantastic. A lot of questions can be answered by the FAQ. Please consult it, but feel free to post your questions. Especially the one that you think might seem stupid. We’re all in this together.