Week 17 NFL Betting Notes: Futures Sweats, Hedges, Injuries & Picks
The final 16 games of the regular season are just hours away, and though we’ve already made some Week 17 betting picks, there’s been plenty of news and line movement in the last few days. On top of that, several key games will have NFL futures bettors sweating.
2020 NFL Futures Betting Sweats
NFL MVP…Rodgers or Mahomes?
Through the first five weeks of the season, it looked like Russell Wilson might finally add an NFL MVP award to his trophy case. By late October, Wilson was actually the odds-on favorite to win the award, albeit briefly.
As things began to taper off for Wilson and the Seahawks, Kyler Murray and Josh Allen both would make a midseason push. Still, it seemed like Patrick Mahomes would inevitably separate from the rest of the pack.
With heavy -450 odds at online sportsbooks just a few weeks ago, Mahomes would indeed separate himself, but his stronghold on the award wouldn’t last long, thanks to a two-time MVP with a chip on his shoulder up in Green Bay.
Mahomes leads the league in passing—at least for now (more on that race shortly)— but Aaron Rodgers leads the league in touchdowns and passer rating, not to mention a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 44:5. Rodgers has played well from the start, but he caught fire during the final stretch, throwing at least three touchdowns in four of Green Bay’s last five wins.
After a four-touchdown performance Sunday night against the Titans, oddsmakers made Rodgers the MVP favorite for the first time all season, improving his odds from roughly +330 to -350.
A win against the Bears on Sunday would clinch the Packers the top seed in the NFC and, likely, Rodgers a third MVP. Meanwhile, the Chiefs already have a playoff bye wrapped up, so Andy Reid is giving his star quarterback a rest against the Chargers. This will help Rodgers’ chances even if the Packers fail to beat the Bears.
The Hedge: If you already have a good price on Rodgers but aren’t fully convinced he’s a lock to win the award, there are a couple of ways to hedge.
First, you could simply bet Mahomes +380 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
However, my favorite way to hedge this particular bet is to bet on the Bears moneyline +180 or take the points on the Bears +4. The only scenario I picture Rodgers not winning MVP is if the Bears win Sunday, and even then, I think Rodgers bettors are in good shape. The Packers do have to make some adjustments after losing offensive lineman David Bakhtiari to a non-contact injury in practice. Bakhtiari is arguably the league’s best left tackle, and his absence will undoubtedly make Rodgers’ job a little bit tougher in Chicago. By betting the Bears, we get to hedge and play a sort of “middling” opportunity where we can win both bets.
Watson Aims for Passing Title
It looked like Patrick Mahomes would run away with the passing title in 2020, but there was always the threat that he would play too good to play the schedule in its entiriety. That’s exactly what happened as Mahomes led the Chiefs to a 15-1 record through the first 16 weeks of the season. Mahomes, Hill, and a handful of Chiefs starters will watch from the sideline on Sunday, opening a path for Deshaun Watson to lead the NFL in regular-season passing yards.
At 4,458 yards, Watson trails Mahomes’ 4,740-yard mark by only 282 yards. As a Mahomes +600 ticket holder (placed on Sept. 14), the fact that Watson gets to go against Tennessee’s defense isn’t very assuring. The Titans secondary has given up at least that much in half of their games this season. Moreover, Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ projects Watson to throw for 299 yards in his final game — yikes.
The Hedge: I’m not one to bet against THE BLITZ. I’d rather head to William Hill to bet Watson OVER 279.5 Yards. The middling opportunity is slim but it’s better than nothing. WH’s prop line is significantly lower than FanDuel’s 293.5 Yards, so I feel pretty strong that there’s value on the Over regardless.
Another way I’ll hedge is by stacking Watson with Brandin Cooks and TE Jordan Akins in my DFS lineups. If Watson has the passing title on his mind, those two guys should see a bulk of the targets.
[Bet Watson Over 279.5 Passing Yards at William Hill]
Are Herbert ROY Tickets a Lock?
Sharp bettors snagged Herbert at closer to +2000 to win this award in Week 2. I was not very sharp but I was able to grab Herbert -550 about a month ago. Now you have to lay as much as -2000 on Herbert at BetMGM (you can find -1250 at FOX Bet), so even though I was late, I feel pretty good about getting in when I did. Despite a record-breaking rookie season for Herbert, some people think Justin Jefferson still has a case for Rookie of the Year.
The Vikings’ wide receiver has already broken Randy Moss’ franchise rookie record for receptions and needs only 46 yards to break Moss’ rookie record for receiving yards.
Maybe if I had gotten in early on Herbert I’d buy Jefferson’s current +800 price tag at BetMGM, but I don’t see voters voting against the quarterback this year. Instead, I’ll bet Over Jefferson’s Week 17 receiving yards prop, which is 72.5 at PointsBet. It will take a monstrous day for Jefferson to sway voters, and Detroit has a susceptible defense. With Dalvin Cook missing the game for personal reason and Kirk Cousins fully aware of what’s on the line for Jefferson’s purposes, I expect the rookie to be targeted early and often.
[Bet Jefferson Over 72.5 Receiving Yards]
Week 17 News, Injury Updates, & Picks
Steelers vs. Browns
The Browns were initially 7-point favorites before for spread jumped to double digits following the announcement that Mason Rudolph will get the start for Pittsburgh. This line has since dropped a half-point at most shops, but Steelers +10 is still available at PointsBet. That’s a number I’m happy to lock in, considering the Browns practice has been closed for most of the week. Unlike last week, Baker Mayfield will have Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins and Donovan People-Jones to throw to, but the Browns defense will be without cornerback Denzel Ward, who tested positive for COVID. That’s a major blow for an already-struggling defense.
[Bet on the Steelers +10 at PointsBet]
Falcons vs. Buccaneers
The Falcons opened as 4.5-point underdogs but the line has since moved as much as 2.5 points at some sportsbooks. I don’t doubt Tom Brady and the Bucs aim for the 5-seed and first-round matchup against whoever comes out of the NFC East, but +7 seems a bit too generous. Atlanta has played within five points in each of their past four matchups, a stretch that includes games against the Saints, Chiefs, and Bucs. The Falcons have been out of the playoff race for a while, yet they continue to pose a tough test for some of the league’s top Super Bowl contenders.
[Bet on the Falcons +7 at BetMGM]
Saints vs. Panthers
The Saints will not only be without Alvin Kamara, who rushed for six touchdowns on Christmas, but they’ll also miss backup running back Latavius Murray due to coronavirus protocols. That means veteran WR/RB Ty Montgomery will be in for a large workload in the backfield. Since returning against the Chiefs, Drew Brees has thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns. The Panthers defense isn’t anything to be scared of, but I think the Saints are in more trouble without Kamara/Murray than oddsmakers realize. This is another game where I’ll take the points.
[Bet on the Panthers +6 at Unibet]
Image Credit: Imagn