Yahoo NFL DFS Strategy: Wild Card Round
Hello Grinders. There’s a ton going on over at Yahoo right now, and we wanted to highlight some of their offerings.
One of the best offers in the industry is happening there — if you’re a first-time depositor, you can now use promo code ‘grinders30’ to get $30 worth of free play. They also have a massive $500K prize pool contest for the NFL Wild Card Round, including a $100K prize to 1st place and no management fee. It doesn’t get much better than this.
Before we dig into the slate, I thought it’d be helpful for us to highlight the Yahoo DFS format, how it may differ from some of the other sites, and some plays I’m looking at specifically on Yahoo. Let’s dig in!
SPECIAL OFFER: Use promo code grinders30 on your first deposit to get $30 worth of free play on Yahoo.
What Is Roster Construction Like On Yahoo?
Roster construction is similar to that of FanDuel or DraftKings where you’re selecting nine players: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FLEX and DEF. The FLEX can be either a RB, WR or TE. You’re working within a $200 salary cap, so the average player costs $22.
How Is Yahoo NFL DFS Scoring Different From Other Sites?
Let’s first focus on the offensive scoring, and then we’ll look at the defensive scoring. The scoring most resembles what you’d find on FanDuel. Like FanDuel and DraftKings, rushing and receiving touchdowns are worth +6 points, while passing touchdowns are worth +4 points. And like both sites, Yahoo awards .04 points per passing yard, 0.1 points per rushing yard and 0.1 points per receiving yard. The main difference is that Yahoo and FanDuel only award 0.5 points per reception, while DraftKings awards a full 1 point. In other words, receptions are weighted less heavily on Yahoo.
Another difference is that Yahoo, unlike DraftKings, doesn’t award any bonuses for milestones achieved during the game. On DraftKings, you get 3 points for a 300+ yard passing game, 3 points for a 100+ yard rushing game and 3 points for a 100+ receiving yard game. Yahoo doesn’t offer any of these. This means volume is less important on Yahoo.
Let’s now look at the defensive scoring. The defensive scoring actually aligns with what you’d find on both DraftKings and FanDuel, so if you’re familiar with their scoring, nothing changes.
Example Time
Let’s now dig into an actual example of how the scoring difference on Yahoo compares to DraftKings. As mentioned above, Yahoo is a 0.5 point per reception site while DraftKings is a 1 point per reception site. That means touchdowns are more meaningful on Yahoo and guys who get peppered with targets but never find the end zone aren’t as appealing on Yahoo.
Let’s start with Cole Beasley. I realize there’s a lot going on in this chart but let’s take it step by step what I’m trying to show. We have two columns: on the left side we have Beasley’s actual Yahoo points by week of the season, how much he cost on Yahoo, and what % of the $200 salary cap his salary accounted for that week. On the right side, we have Beasley’s actual DraftKings points by week of the season, how much he cost on DraftKings, and what % of the $50,000 salary cap his salary account for that week.
In every week, he scored more DraftKings points than Yahoo points. This is correct, because the only difference in scoring between the two sites is that DraftKings gives 1 point per reception instead of .5 point. And in Week 6, Beasley had 101 receiving yards, so he also gets the 3 point bonus on DraftKings but not Yahoo. There were three weeks of the season where Beasley actually accounted for more of the salary cap on Yahoo than on DraftKings: Weeks 3, 13 and 14 (I highlighted them in red). You could argue that he was not an optimal play on Yahoo those week and if you really wanted Cole Beasley exposure, you were better getting it via DraftKings.
Notice I highlighted Beasley in red for this week’s Wild Card Round. That’s because he costs $15 on Yahoo (which accounts for 7.5% of your salary cap) but only $3,500 on DraftKings (which accounts for 7% of your salary cap). In other words, he’s a much better play on DraftKings this week than on Yahoo strictly in terms of getting the most bang for your buck.
Favorite Plays
Let’s now dive into five of my favorite GPP plays this week, one at each position:
1. Deshaun Watson ($36) – Watson is the highest priced quarterback but I’m fine with paying up for quarterback given Watson has the highest upside in terms of both passing and rushing touchdowns. He’s in the game with the highest over/under and had fantasy scores of 18.18 and 32.1 when these teams met twice this regular season.
2. Jordan Howard ($20) – I do think it’s a solid spot for Jordan Howard against a crumbling Eagles defense. I hate playing Howard in general, but his style is a better fit on Yahoo than on DraftKings since he doesn’t play in the passing game. I’m expecting the Bears to be in a positive game script, and that would bode well for Howard. The Bears are currently six point favorites and if they get out to an early lead, this could be a spot where they ride Howard, increasing his touchdown upside.
3. Dontrelle Inman ($14) – Inman has a questionable tag so you’ll want to monitor his status, but I think he’s solid for GPPs. Ryan Grant has already been ruled out, leaving T.Y. Hilton, Eric Ebron, Chester Rogers, Zach Pascal and Inman as the receiving corps. Hilton and Ebron will dominate the lion’s share of the volume, but the Colts averaged the second most passing attempts per game this season so there should be plenty of targets to go around. Last week, Inman led the secondary receivers with a 62% snap rate, followed by Rogers’ 58% and Pascal’s 54%. Inman has also caught touchdowns in back-to-back weeks and has come on strong lately.
4. Mo Alie-Cox ($10) / Ryan Griffin ($10) – These are complete YOLO plays, and my obvious first choice would be Eric Ebron. But if you’re paying up for guys like Zeke, Hilton, Hopkins, etc you may not have the funds to pay up at tight end. My guess is that if people pay down, they will chase the three-touchdown game of Blake Jarwin. I have no idea of Jarwin is for real, but he entered Week 17 with no touchdowns all season, so I feel like it’s more fluky than not. I listed two tight end YOLO punt options, and I think it depends who you’re starting at quarterback. If you’re playing Deshaun Watson, Ryan Griffin is interesting given the lack of options in this offense. There’s no more Will Fuller, no more Demaryius Thomas, and Keke Coutee is questionable for this game. Griffin plays on 70%-80% of the snaps each week so he’ll be out there. If you’re playing Andrew Luck and want to pivot off Ebron in large field tournaments, Mo Alie-Cox is interesting. Alie-Cox handles the other 50% of snaps when Ebron is not out there, and Luck spreads the ball out so much that touchdowns can really go anywhere in this offense. Alie-Cox did catch touchdowns in back-to-back weeks earlier this season. Again, these are strictly large-field GPP dart throws.
5. Los Angeles Chargers ($13) – If paying down for a defense, I think the Chargers are my favorite option. The Chargers ranked 10th in both pass and run DVOA, so this is a solid defensive unit. They also had the most success against Jackson in his brief career, holding him to just 39 rushing yards in Week 16. My guess is the Chargers force Jackson to beat them via the air instead of the ground, which has been the Ravens’ bread and butter. Jackson has a 6:3 touchdown to interception so he’s been able to limit the turnovers so far, but I don’t think it’s crazy trying to attack a rookie quarterback making his first ever playoff start and hope he crumbles under the pressure.
Thanks for reading, and good luck this week. May variance be on your side.