Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds, Picks & Prediction — Wednesday, September 29
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds
| Yankees Odds | +108 |
| Blue Jays Odds | -126 |
| Over/Under | 9 |
| Date | Wednesday, Sept. 29 |
| Time | 7:07 p.m. |
| TV | YES |
On Wednesday night, the New York Yankees and the Toronto Blue Jays will engage in an intra-division showdown as these two franchises battle for a Wild Card position in the American League playoff picture. New York enters play on Wednesday on a seven game winning streak. Toronto is only 5-5 in their last 10 contests. With their season arguably on the line this evening, the Blue Jays will send Jose Berrios to the hill, who will be opposed by Gerrit Cole. Oddsmakers are expecting New York’s hot streak to continue, pricing the Yankees as -116 road favorites.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
New York Yankees
Through 29 turns in the rotation in 2021, Cole has been outstanding with a 3.08 ERA, 3.05 xERA, and a 2.83 FIP. Yet, when players sign a contract worth north of 300 million dollars, fans expect more than simply good aggregated numbers for the season—they expect greatness in big games. Cole has made four starts against the Blue Jays this year, posting a 2.70 ERA across 23.1 innings of work. Since June 10, Cole owns a 3.33 ERA and a 2.50 FIP, but has been unimpressive down the stretch with a 4.61 ERA and a 3.46 FIP in September. He will need to bring his good stuff to the ballpark on Wednesday if he hopes to deliver a strong outing against a tough Toronto lineup.
In Giancarlo Stanton’s last four games he is 8-for-16 at the plate with four home runs and 13 RBI. Aaron Judge has seven home runs and 18 RBI in his last sixteen games. These two sluggers have fueled a New York lineup that ranks third in OPS and second in ISO over the last two weeks of action. In that span, the Yankees offense also has a top-10 walk-rate and has even managed to cut down on their strikeouts.
Last night, New York only got 2.1 innings out of starter Jameson Taillon, which threatened to destroy the bullpen. However, Michael King saved the day with 2.2 innings to bridge the gap to the late-inning relievers. The off-day on Monday means that nobody has thrown on consecutive days entering play. Chad Green is perhaps the only arm that could be dealing with some fatigue, considering that he has thrown three of the last five days.
Toronto Blue Jays
On the year, Berrios has a 3.48 ERA, 4.17 xERA, and a 3.55 FIP. He has continued to post similar numbers since being traded to the Blue Jays at the end of July—turning in a 3.50 ERA and a 3.51 FIP in 11 starts for Toronto. In that span, he is striking-out 26.4 percent of opposing batters against a 4.8 percent walk-rate. Still, he has given up more hard-contact than is ideal, surrendering a 10.1 percent barrel-rate on his last 178 balls in play. Berrios could find himself in trouble if he cannot find a way to induce more weak contact this evening.
Since the trade deadline, the Blue Jays have been better than almost any team in the league at the plate—ranking second in OPS and third in ISO, not to mention owning a league-best 18.0 percent strikeout-rate. This offense has cooled off a bit in recent weeks, coming-in only 21st in OPS and 11th in ISO. Yet, a look at their underlying metrics suggests that they have been more unlucky than bad. Expect their .237 BABIP during this stretch to even out sooner rather than later. Toronto is still an offensive juggernaut, but will have a very tough test tonight against Cole.
Similar to the Yankees, the Blue Jays had Monday as a scheduled off-day, meaning that their bullpen had a chance to rest and recoup heading into the final week of the regular season. Toronto used only low-leverage relievers last night in the loss, meaning that none of their top bullpen arms have pitched in two days. Everyone should be available for this group tonight in a must-win contest, if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Picks
Yesterday’s affair totaled only nine runs, despite the fact that Taillon was bounced from the game early, and numerous mediocre pitchers made their way into the ballgame. Tonight, Cole and Berrios are listed as the scheduled starters. Compared to last night, the starting pitching is far better, and each bullpen still has no usage concerns with any of their top relievers.
Thus far in 2021, the Rogers Centre has generated the third-fewest offense of any venue in Major League Baseball in night games—producing six percent less offense than league average, including a home run rate that is 19 percent below league average. The under is a strong play at its current market price.
PICK: Under 8.5 (-110)
Image Credit: Imagn