Ethan’s NFL Expert Picks: DraftKings

Written by: ETHAN

The Expert NFL Picks are designed to help you glean insight into the best daily fantasy minds around. Each week, this column will be broken into two sections for each site:

Ethan’s Highlight Picks of the Week: NFL Week 7

Tony Romo – $9200

Romo is the 3rd highest priced QB this week but given the matchup with an Eagles defense allowing 327 passing yards per game to opposing QBs (3rd most in the NFL), his price point seems worth it. With DeMarco Murray out, look for the Cowboys to further utilize the passing game in a game that should be high paced. Romo has thrown 35 or more passes in 4 of 6 games this year and if he approaches that number he should be in store for a big fantasy day.

Tom Brady – $7100

It looks like the Patriots are finally opening up the no-huddle offense, now that rookie wideouts Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson have it figured out. Last week Brady threw 43 passes for 269 yards, his second most pass attempts of the season. The Jets have been stout against the run, but rank just 17th against opposing QBs. And the coup de grace on this pick is the return of tight end Rob Gronkowski. Having him back on the field should open up the entire offense, specifically in the red zone where the Patriots currently rank 3rd worst in TD-percentage.

Matt Forte – $7600

Forte continues to be under-priced compared to Charles, Peterson and McCoy. His upside is somewhat limited since he loses red zone touches to Michael Bush, but his consistency is undeniable. He has posted 15 or more fantasy points in every game this season, making him a lock for H2H and 50/50 rosters. Add in that Washington ranks 29th in the league against opposing running backs and I have Forte penciled in on most of my cash game lineups.

Brandon Jacobs – $3900

Jacobs found the fountain of youth last week, torching the Bears for 106 yards and 2 scores. Most impressive was the 23 touches he saw, and over the last 2 weeks he’s been on the field for an average of 70% of snaps. Minnesota ranks dead last against opposing RBs, allowing just under 28 FPPG. The matchup combined with an extremely reduced price tag makes Jacobs a top value option for GPPs and H2H games in Week 7.

Justin Blackmon – $7300

There’s a reason his price tag has skyrocketed since returning to the field in Week 5. He was targeted 20 times last weekend and caught 14 balls for 190 yards. Even if Cecil Shorts plays, he’ll be hampered by injuries and Blackmon will continue to be the #1 option for QB Chad Henne. The Chargers have been pretty bad against opposing wideouts this year, ranking 27th and allowing over 200 yards receiving per game to WRs.

Mike Wallace – $5500

Buffalo ranks 2nd to last in defense vs. opponent wide receivers, giving Wallace an opening for a huge game. He’s an extreme GPP play, as evidenced by his 2 games over 20 fantasy points and 3 games under 5 fantasy points in 2013. But at home and coming off a bye week, this Miami offense should be ready to go and has the ability to run over a Bills team that’s reeling from injuries.

Rob Gronkowski – $5000

The return of Gronk at this price tag is too good to pass up. For $5K you can get a player with the equivalent upside of Jimmy Graham. One big week from Gronk and his price will return to near untouchable levels so getting him in your lineups now is key. As referenced in the Brady write up, the Patriots rank 3rd to last in the NFL in red zone scoring percentage, so the return of Gronk should mean a ton of red zone targets as New England tries to sure up that aspect of the game.

Timothy Wright – $3800

Since Glennon has taken over as the starter, Wright has been targeted 15 times for 12 receptions and over 130 yards receiving. He’s proven that he can produce and is one big game away from being a well recognized daily fantasy name. Be sure to jump on him before everyone else does as a high-risk, high-reward GPP play this weekend. Atlanta ranks 25th against opposing tight ends and the Bucs could easily be playing catch-up from behind at the Georgia Dome on Sunday.


Ethan’s Tiered DraftKings Expert Picks

Player Salary Tm Opp FP-S FP-3 Ceil% Cons% Max-FP DvP-Rk DvP-FP Vegas
Top Tier Quarterbacks
Tony Romo $9,200 DAL PHI 20.02 23.03 33% 67% 41.94 29 22.40 26.25
Cam Newton $9,000 CAR STL 19.28 18.75 40% 60% 30.68 15 17.00 24.00
Second Tier Quarterbacks
Jay Cutler $7,700 CHI WAS 18.07 20.36 67% 83% 23.02 23 20.26 25.00
Tom Brady $7,100 NE NYJ 13.75 13.56 17% 50% 20.44 17 17.52 23.75
Third Tier Quarterbacks
Mike Glennon $5,400 TB ATL 12.27 12.27 0% 50% 19.92 27 21.34 18.00
Chad Henne $5,500 JAX SD 7.49 7.79 0% 0% 14.54 30 22.66 19.00
Player Salary Tm Opp FP-S FP-3 Ceil% Cons% Max-FP DvP-Rk DvP-FP Vegas
Top Tier Running Backs
Matt Forte $7,600 CHI WAS 20.07 18.43 67% 100% 20.20 29 24.04 25.00
Jamaal Charles $8,500 KC HOU 25.08 25.67 100% 100% 27.30 16 19.38 23.25
Adrian Peterson $8,600 MIN NYG 20.32 18.65 60% 60% 31.10 22 21.74 21.75
Second Tier Running Backs
Giovani Bernard $5,800 CIN DET 14.30 14.13 50% 50% 19.00 25 22.22 22.25
Eddie Lacy $5,700 GB CLE 9.35 12.10 0% 25% 13.00 20 21.13 28.00
Danny Woodhead $5,200 SD JAX 15.17 19.80 17% 33% 23.10 28 23.43 26.50
Third Tier Running Backs
Brandon Jacobs $3,900 NYG MIN 6.94 9.37 20% 20% 23.90 32 27.48 24.75
DeAngelo Williams $4,400 CAR STL 11.56 12.80 0% 40% 14.20 31 26.45 24.00
Joseph Randle $4,800 DAL PHI 3.73 3.73 0% 0% 10.20 13 18.60 26.25
Player Salary Tm Opp FP-S FP-3 Ceil% Cons% Max-FP DvP-Rk DvP-FP Vegas
Top Tier Wide Receivers
Justin Blackmon $7,300 JAX SD 28.80 28.80 100% 100% 26.00 27 34.42 19.00
Dez Bryant $8,800 DAL PHI 18.98 21.60 50% 50% 27.10 32 45.58 26.25
DeSean Jackson $7,700 PHI DAL 20.48 18.67 67% 67% 29.80 19 30.77 28.75
Brandon Marshall $8,600 CHI WAS 19.75 19.87 50% 67% 25.20 28 34.52 25.00
Second Tier Wide Receivers
Vincent Jackson $6,600 TB ATL 15.72 18.55 40% 40% 27.90 29 34.98 18.00
Julian Edelman $5,800 NE NYJ 15.87 11.90 17% 50% 23.40 20 30.90 23.75
Hakeem Nicks $6,000 NYG MIN 11.53 13.50 17% 33% 18.70 25 33.96 24.75
Mike Wallace $5,500 MIA BUF 11.22 11.45 20% 40% 22.00 31 41.82 25.25
Third Tier Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen $4,600 SD JAX 13.64 20.73 40% 40% 21.20 18 29.88 26.50
Jarrett Boykin $3,500 GB CLE 1.06 2.65 0% 0% 4.80 6 22.15 28.00
Kris Durham $4,500 DET CIN 7.25 12.37 0% 17% 12.30 13 26.00 24.75
Player Salary Tm Opp FP-S FP-3 Ceil% Cons% Max-FP DvP-Rk DvP-FP Vegas
Top Tier Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski $5,000 NE NYJ 16 10.08 23.75
Vernon Davis $6,700 SF TEN 19.68 21.87 60% 60% 34.00 23 12.12 22.00
Jordan Cameron $4,900 CLE GB 19.00 14.37 50% 50% 27.60 29 15.22 18.00
Second Tier Tight Ends
Timothy Wright $3,800 TB ATL 5.36 12.60 0% 20% 12.60 25 13.30 18.00
Zach Ertz $3,400 PHI DAL 4.38 4.97 0% 0% 6.80 30 16.72 28.75
Heath Miller $3,600 PIT BAL 11.30 13.70 0% 0% 11.40 21 11.95 21.00

Defenses and Kickers

Player Salary Tm Opp FPPG PtsA D-TD INT FUM O-PPG O-PaRk O-RuRk
Top Tier Defense
Kansas City Chiefs $6,000 HOU 16.0 10.8 0.8 1.7 0.5 25.3 26 12
Second Tier Defense
Carolina Panthers $5,400 STL 12.0 13.6 0.0 1.6 0.8 21.8 27 7
Player Salary Tm Opp FPPG FGA FGM LONG 40+/G FP-Wtd O-FGA/G O-FG%
Top Tier Kicker
Stephen Gostkowski $5,700 NE NYJ 11.3 17.0 0.9 54.0 0.5 12.3 2.0 92%
Second Tier Kicker
Shaun Suisham $5,100 PIT BAL 8.4 10.0 1.0 48.0 0.8 10.3 2.5 88%


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