Ethan’s NFL Expert Picks: DraftKings
Written by: ETHAN
The Expert NFL Picks are designed to help you glean insight into the best daily fantasy minds around. Each week, this column will be broken into two sections for each site:
- 1) Highlight Picks – Detailed breakdowns of 2 players at each position who the expert plans on using most in their lineups this week and why.
- 2) Tiered Picks – An expanded selection of plays, based on player value, for different salary tiers on the given site.
Ethan’s Highlight Picks of the Week: NFL Week 7
Tony Romo – $9200
Romo is the 3rd highest priced QB this week but given the matchup with an Eagles defense allowing 327 passing yards per game to opposing QBs (3rd most in the NFL), his price point seems worth it. With DeMarco Murray out, look for the Cowboys to further utilize the passing game in a game that should be high paced. Romo has thrown 35 or more passes in 4 of 6 games this year and if he approaches that number he should be in store for a big fantasy day.
Tom Brady – $7100
It looks like the Patriots are finally opening up the no-huddle offense, now that rookie wideouts Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson have it figured out. Last week Brady threw 43 passes for 269 yards, his second most pass attempts of the season. The Jets have been stout against the run, but rank just 17th against opposing QBs. And the coup de grace on this pick is the return of tight end Rob Gronkowski. Having him back on the field should open up the entire offense, specifically in the red zone where the Patriots currently rank 3rd worst in TD-percentage.
Matt Forte – $7600
Forte continues to be under-priced compared to Charles, Peterson and McCoy. His upside is somewhat limited since he loses red zone touches to Michael Bush, but his consistency is undeniable. He has posted 15 or more fantasy points in every game this season, making him a lock for H2H and 50/50 rosters. Add in that Washington ranks 29th in the league against opposing running backs and I have Forte penciled in on most of my cash game lineups.
Brandon Jacobs – $3900
Jacobs found the fountain of youth last week, torching the Bears for 106 yards and 2 scores. Most impressive was the 23 touches he saw, and over the last 2 weeks he’s been on the field for an average of 70% of snaps. Minnesota ranks dead last against opposing RBs, allowing just under 28 FPPG. The matchup combined with an extremely reduced price tag makes Jacobs a top value option for GPPs and H2H games in Week 7.
Justin Blackmon – $7300
There’s a reason his price tag has skyrocketed since returning to the field in Week 5. He was targeted 20 times last weekend and caught 14 balls for 190 yards. Even if Cecil Shorts plays, he’ll be hampered by injuries and Blackmon will continue to be the #1 option for QB Chad Henne. The Chargers have been pretty bad against opposing wideouts this year, ranking 27th and allowing over 200 yards receiving per game to WRs.
Mike Wallace – $5500
Buffalo ranks 2nd to last in defense vs. opponent wide receivers, giving Wallace an opening for a huge game. He’s an extreme GPP play, as evidenced by his 2 games over 20 fantasy points and 3 games under 5 fantasy points in 2013. But at home and coming off a bye week, this Miami offense should be ready to go and has the ability to run over a Bills team that’s reeling from injuries.
Rob Gronkowski – $5000
The return of Gronk at this price tag is too good to pass up. For $5K you can get a player with the equivalent upside of Jimmy Graham. One big week from Gronk and his price will return to near untouchable levels so getting him in your lineups now is key. As referenced in the Brady write up, the Patriots rank 3rd to last in the NFL in red zone scoring percentage, so the return of Gronk should mean a ton of red zone targets as New England tries to sure up that aspect of the game.
Timothy Wright – $3800
Since Glennon has taken over as the starter, Wright has been targeted 15 times for 12 receptions and over 130 yards receiving. He’s proven that he can produce and is one big game away from being a well recognized daily fantasy name. Be sure to jump on him before everyone else does as a high-risk, high-reward GPP play this weekend. Atlanta ranks 25th against opposing tight ends and the Bucs could easily be playing catch-up from behind at the Georgia Dome on Sunday.
Ethan’s Tiered DraftKings Expert Picks
| Player | Salary | Tm | Opp | FP-S | FP-3 | Ceil% | Cons% | Max-FP | DvP-Rk | DvP-FP | Vegas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top Tier Quarterbacks | |||||||||||||
| Tony Romo | $9,200 | DAL | PHI | 20.02 | 23.03 | 33% | 67% | 41.94 | 29 | 22.40 | 26.25 | ||
| Cam Newton | $9,000 | CAR | STL | 19.28 | 18.75 | 40% | 60% | 30.68 | 15 | 17.00 | 24.00 | ||
| Second Tier Quarterbacks | |||||||||||||
| Jay Cutler | $7,700 | CHI | WAS | 18.07 | 20.36 | 67% | 83% | 23.02 | 23 | 20.26 | 25.00 | ||
| Tom Brady | $7,100 | NE | NYJ | 13.75 | 13.56 | 17% | 50% | 20.44 | 17 | 17.52 | 23.75 | ||
| Third Tier Quarterbacks | |||||||||||||
| Mike Glennon | $5,400 | TB | ATL | 12.27 | 12.27 | 0% | 50% | 19.92 | 27 | 21.34 | 18.00 | ||
| Chad Henne | $5,500 | JAX | SD | 7.49 | 7.79 | 0% | 0% | 14.54 | 30 | 22.66 | 19.00 | ||
| Player | Salary | Tm | Opp | FP-S | FP-3 | Ceil% | Cons% | Max-FP | DvP-Rk | DvP-FP | Vegas | ||
| Top Tier Running Backs | |||||||||||||
| Matt Forte | $7,600 | CHI | WAS | 20.07 | 18.43 | 67% | 100% | 20.20 | 29 | 24.04 | 25.00 | ||
| Jamaal Charles | $8,500 | KC | HOU | 25.08 | 25.67 | 100% | 100% | 27.30 | 16 | 19.38 | 23.25 | ||
| Adrian Peterson | $8,600 | MIN | NYG | 20.32 | 18.65 | 60% | 60% | 31.10 | 22 | 21.74 | 21.75 | ||
| Second Tier Running Backs | |||||||||||||
| Giovani Bernard | $5,800 | CIN | DET | 14.30 | 14.13 | 50% | 50% | 19.00 | 25 | 22.22 | 22.25 | ||
| Eddie Lacy | $5,700 | GB | CLE | 9.35 | 12.10 | 0% | 25% | 13.00 | 20 | 21.13 | 28.00 | ||
| Danny Woodhead | $5,200 | SD | JAX | 15.17 | 19.80 | 17% | 33% | 23.10 | 28 | 23.43 | 26.50 | ||
| Third Tier Running Backs | |||||||||||||
| Brandon Jacobs | $3,900 | NYG | MIN | 6.94 | 9.37 | 20% | 20% | 23.90 | 32 | 27.48 | 24.75 | ||
| DeAngelo Williams | $4,400 | CAR | STL | 11.56 | 12.80 | 0% | 40% | 14.20 | 31 | 26.45 | 24.00 | ||
| Joseph Randle | $4,800 | DAL | PHI | 3.73 | 3.73 | 0% | 0% | 10.20 | 13 | 18.60 | 26.25 | ||
| Player | Salary | Tm | Opp | FP-S | FP-3 | Ceil% | Cons% | Max-FP | DvP-Rk | DvP-FP | Vegas | ||
| Top Tier Wide Receivers | |||||||||||||
| Justin Blackmon | $7,300 | JAX | SD | 28.80 | 28.80 | 100% | 100% | 26.00 | 27 | 34.42 | 19.00 | ||
| Dez Bryant | $8,800 | DAL | PHI | 18.98 | 21.60 | 50% | 50% | 27.10 | 32 | 45.58 | 26.25 | ||
| DeSean Jackson | $7,700 | PHI | DAL | 20.48 | 18.67 | 67% | 67% | 29.80 | 19 | 30.77 | 28.75 | ||
| Brandon Marshall | $8,600 | CHI | WAS | 19.75 | 19.87 | 50% | 67% | 25.20 | 28 | 34.52 | 25.00 | ||
| Second Tier Wide Receivers | |||||||||||||
| Vincent Jackson | $6,600 | TB | ATL | 15.72 | 18.55 | 40% | 40% | 27.90 | 29 | 34.98 | 18.00 | ||
| Julian Edelman | $5,800 | NE | NYJ | 15.87 | 11.90 | 17% | 50% | 23.40 | 20 | 30.90 | 23.75 | ||
| Hakeem Nicks | $6,000 | NYG | MIN | 11.53 | 13.50 | 17% | 33% | 18.70 | 25 | 33.96 | 24.75 | ||
| Mike Wallace | $5,500 | MIA | BUF | 11.22 | 11.45 | 20% | 40% | 22.00 | 31 | 41.82 | 25.25 | ||
| Third Tier Wide Receivers | |||||||||||||
| Keenan Allen | $4,600 | SD | JAX | 13.64 | 20.73 | 40% | 40% | 21.20 | 18 | 29.88 | 26.50 | ||
| Jarrett Boykin | $3,500 | GB | CLE | 1.06 | 2.65 | 0% | 0% | 4.80 | 6 | 22.15 | 28.00 | ||
| Kris Durham | $4,500 | DET | CIN | 7.25 | 12.37 | 0% | 17% | 12.30 | 13 | 26.00 | 24.75 | ||
| Player | Salary | Tm | Opp | FP-S | FP-3 | Ceil% | Cons% | Max-FP | DvP-Rk | DvP-FP | Vegas | ||
| Top Tier Tight Ends | |||||||||||||
| Rob Gronkowski | $5,000 | NE | NYJ | 16 | 10.08 | 23.75 | |||||||
| Vernon Davis | $6,700 | SF | TEN | 19.68 | 21.87 | 60% | 60% | 34.00 | 23 | 12.12 | 22.00 | ||
| Jordan Cameron | $4,900 | CLE | GB | 19.00 | 14.37 | 50% | 50% | 27.60 | 29 | 15.22 | 18.00 | ||
| Second Tier Tight Ends | |||||||||||||
| Timothy Wright | $3,800 | TB | ATL | 5.36 | 12.60 | 0% | 20% | 12.60 | 25 | 13.30 | 18.00 | ||
| Zach Ertz | $3,400 | PHI | DAL | 4.38 | 4.97 | 0% | 0% | 6.80 | 30 | 16.72 | 28.75 | ||
| Heath Miller | $3,600 | PIT | BAL | 11.30 | 13.70 | 0% | 0% | 11.40 | 21 | 11.95 | 21.00 | ||
Defenses and Kickers
| Player | Salary | Tm | Opp | FPPG | PtsA | D-TD | INT | FUM | O-PPG | O-PaRk | O-RuRk | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top Tier Defense | |||||||||||||
| Kansas City Chiefs | $6,000 | HOU | 16.0 | 10.8 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 25.3 | 26 | 12 | |||
| Second Tier Defense | |||||||||||||
| Carolina Panthers | $5,400 | STL | 12.0 | 13.6 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 21.8 | 27 | 7 | |||
| Player | Salary | Tm | Opp | FPPG | FGA | FGM | LONG | 40+/G | FP-Wtd | O-FGA/G | O-FG% | ||
| Top Tier Kicker | |||||||||||||
| Stephen Gostkowski | $5,700 | NE | NYJ | 11.3 | 17.0 | 0.9 | 54.0 | 0.5 | 12.3 | 2.0 | 92% | ||
| Second Tier Kicker | |||||||||||||
| Shaun Suisham | $5,100 | PIT | BAL | 8.4 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 48.0 | 0.8 | 10.3 | 2.5 | 88% | ||
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