NFL Grind Down - Chiefs/49ers Strategy and Picks

by RotoGrinders Last Updated 2020-01-30 14:57:43

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports and sports betting perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

The “Big Game” will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow.

This week, we are going VERY in-depth on every player in the game. For this reason – I am starting the article with a cheat sheet/summary of my favorite plays. If you don’t have time to read through this VERY detailed analysis of the game, I highly recommend using the summary of DFS plays and bets with confidence.

DFS Recommendations – Per My Analysis Below

Optimal DFS Plays:
George Kittle (DK), Jimmy Garoppolo, Patrick Mahomes
Projections for these players make them very low percentage bust candidates.

Next in Line Captain/MVP:
Travis Kelce

Favorite Contrarian Captains:
Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida
They won’t be my highest % CPTs on DK, but used for unique builds (will also target in Flex).

Next Best High Salary Flex Option/CPT:
Damien Williams
Note: On FanDuel, Tyreek Hill is too cheap and belongs here.

Next Best Mid Salary Flex Option/CPT:
Emmanuel Sanders

Low Salary Flex Options to Target, In Order:
Robbie Gould, DeMarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman
49ers DST, Harrison Butker, Kendrick Bourne, Chiefs D

Players I Plan to Be Short on Vs. Ownership:
Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert, Deebo Samuel

Vegas Overview

Betting Quick Guide: I detail below how I expect the 49ers to capitalize on their run game to sustain drives, control the game, and punish the Chiefs’ defense for their overall weakness. If they successfully control the ground attack, it should open up aerial opportunity and help them obtain a lead. If they gain the lead, I see them as capable of sustaining it all the way to 0:00. This should create a shorter game and a decent chance at the under, though I’m not all about that call with two efficient offenses in play.

Spread Recommendation: 49ers +112 on the Moneyline, with 7.5 out of 10 confidence. I’m betting 10 units.

Total Recommendation: Under 54.5. 5 out of 10 confidence. I’m not betting this more than 1 unit.

My Top 5 Projections Props:

Sammy Watkins Receiving Yards – Under 50.5 (-112) – 1 Unit

Emmanuel Sanders – Over 3.5 Receptions (+130) – 1 Unit

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards: Under 30.5 (-109) – 1 Unit

Jimmy Garoppolo – Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-112) – 1 Unit

Deebo Samuel – Under 53.5 Receiving Yards (-112) – 1 Unit

Injury Situations

Injuries to Monitor:

Chiefs:
— DT Chris Jones is questionable (calf) heading into the week.
— Safety Jordan Lucas is questionable (illness) heading into the week.
— Travis Kelce has been limited in practice with a knee injury.

The Chiefs are near full health heading into this game. The 49ers have had few holes all season long, and they’ll need all hands on deck to secure victory.

49ers:
— RB Tevin Coleman (shoulder) is questionable.
— LB Kwon Alexander was limited in bye week practices.
— DL Dee Ford has been limited with a quad in bye week practices.
— S Jaquiski Tartt (ribs) has been limited in bye week practices.

Coleman seems to be progressing positively, but not being able to participate in walkthroughs is not a good sign he’ll be anything close to a workhorse. The fair expectation is a committee approach.

With the shoulder dislocated for 25 minutes, tough turnaround but this is #SB54. Expect him to play. https://t.co/gMYaJg7RqI

— David J. Chao (@ProFootballDoc) January 28, 2020

Other News and Notes:

— The big game will be held at Hard Rock Stadium, home of the Miami Dolphins.

— The weather is expected to be fair as of this writing. Partly Cloudy, and 73 degrees with no rain.

Matchup Factors, Team Identity Metrics, and Game Flow Expectations

Expected Game Pace, Tempo, and High Level Matchup Factors:

Chiefs:
— Chiefs rank 2nd in yds/play, while SF ranks 31st in YPP allowed.
— Chiefs Avg. 60.9 plays/gm. They ran 64 plays vs. Ten, & 57 vs. HOU.
— 49ers have allowed 59.5 plays per game.
— Chiefs ranked 6th in situation neutral pace in 2019.
— Chiefs ranked 25th in rush%, which increased substantially when leading 7+.
— Chiefs faced the 5th easiest schedule of opponents in the regular season.
— 49ers ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency per Sharp Football Stats.

49ers:
— 49ers rank 5th in yds/play, while KC ranks 17th in YPP allowed.
— 49ers Avg. 62.8 plays/gm. They ran 68 plays vs. Min, & 51 vs. GB.
— Chiefs have allowed 65.5 plays per game.
— 49ers rank 20th in situation neutral pace.
— 49ers rank 3rd in rush%. They ran at a ridiculous 55.28% leading 7+.
— 49ers faced the 23rd easiest schedule of opponents in the regular season.
— Chiefs ranked 14th in defensive efficiency per Sharp Football Stats.

Expected Tempo:

Based on the data above, I projected both teams near 62 plays. That is a very average pace.

Expected Game Flows:

The game is projected to be extremely close. The public expects the favored Chiefs to prevail based on betting percentages early in the week. If that is to be the case, that would mean KC found a way to slow down the SF rush attack in combination with a passing game plan that was effective against a tough defense. I am not in agreement with the public betting trend, though I would not call this crazy or unlikely to occur.

My issue with this prediction is that other good teams were largely unsuccessful in stopping the 49ers run game, and they could not generate passing game production against their defense. Patrick Mahomes is a QB you can’t dismiss as being capable of beating any defense, but the data suggests to me that the 49ers are the more likely team to carry the lead in this game.

I think the most likely outcome is that the 49ers win, exploiting a big matchup mismatch I will detail below. San Francisco has strength in the areas where Kansas City has shown weakness throughout the season.

High Level Matchup Factors:

The biggest mismatch I see: 49ers rushing offense vs. Chiefs run defense. Surface level stats indicate the Chiefs have struggled against the run, and a deeper analysis of their performance when trailing reveals even more alarming stats.

Surface Level Stats
— KC ranked 3rd in expected points added: rushing.
— KC ranked 29th in rush DVOA.
— KC ranked 3rd in rush success rate allowed
— KC ranked 2nd in early down success rate allowed
— KC ranked 8th in total rushing yards allowed
— KC ranked 4th in yards per carry allowed

Deeper Analysis:
— KC time spent leading per game: 17:04 (rank 4th).
— KC allowed a league low 306 yards rushing when leading by 1 or more.
— When trailing by 3 or more, KC allowed a league high 1148 rushing yards.
— In neutral spots (-3 to +3), KC led in yards allowed (930) and YPA (5.47)
— In neutral spots, KC rated the worst BY FAR in EPA (29.2, 6x next worst)
— KC strength of rushing opponent: 14th per Sharp Football Stats

The concern here is that the Chiefs spend a lot of time with the lead and in control of weaker foes. If this game is neutral or if the 49ers’ defense helps them get a lead, we know what the 49ers’ rushing offense is capable of against a soft run defense. In scenarios where the Chiefs do not obtain a lead, the pathetic Chiefs’ run defense will be exposed. There also is a possibility that they’ll be exposed no matter the score.

If we were to flip that script and assume Patrick gets the Chiefs ahead, we would need the Chiefs’ passing offense to deliver the goods. This should also concern you by the numbers:

— SF was the 2nd most difficult pass defense in terms of both EPA and DVOA.
— SF rarely allowed explosive passing plays (5.96%, 31st).
— SF allowed the fewest passing yards per game.
— Only Brees, Goff, and Dalton were able to gather 300+ yards in game.
— Kirk Cousins managed just 5.9 YPA and 172 yards in the divisional round.
— Aaron Rodgers was only able to rack up 243 yards last game.
— SF ranks 2nd in adjusted sack % and tallied 9 sacks in the playoffs.

At a high level, I don’t think there is any defense that is totally shutting down Patrick Mahomes. He will make plays in the big game, and I sincerely doubt we see the 49ers run away with it. However, the metrics described above give me confidence in a prediction of a 49ers advantage that relies on the exploitation of the Chiefs’ soft run defense. On the flip side, the 49ers’ strong pass defense should provide just enough production limitation to keep Mahomes from carrying Kansas City to a lead. If the Chiefs don’t carry a lead for most of the game, they are unlikely to stop what the 49ers do best on offense.

Kansas City Chiefs Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

Chiefs Running Game Breakdown

SFO Adj. Fpts Allowed Vs. RB: Rank 31

Rushing Opportunity Metrics of Note:
Mahomes MSRush, Playoffs: 33%, 30%
Williams MSRush, Playoffs: 57%, 63%
SF Last 4 Ru. Att Allowed: 19-30-10-16

Rushing Efficiency Metrics of Note:
SF Yards Game Allowed: 104.7 (11th), 69.3 last 3
SF Ranks 24th in EPA Rushing
SF Ranks 11th in Rush DVOA

Damien Williams Breakdown

39% Expected Ownership (31% Flex, 8% CPT)

Kansas City has concentrated all of it’s rushing production to two players in the post season, and there is a likelihood that Patrick Mahomes is less effective as a runner vs. San Francisco. This would leave Damien Williams as the primary rushing producer, but in a game in which the Chiefs figure to run a low percentage of traditional rushing play.

Other than the run-obsessed Seahawks (who rank 30 rush and 41 pass vs. SF week 17), 49ers’ opponents have not been able to dial up a heavy volume of runs against them lately. So we should project a heavy pass skew. In term of efficiency, Williams has just 3 games over 75 yards rushing this season, and two of them benefitted greatly from explosive plays (they occurred on few attempts). He doesn’t figure to have a high volume of runs or a high rushing yardage total. His prop is currently sitting at just 50.5 yards, and we project just under that at present. He’ll need a short TD for his fantasy value to come on the ground.

If I was betting him at $9800 DK / $14k FD, I would be doing so banking on some passing game production as well. He has target totals of 7, 6, and 6 in his last 3 games. Likewise, the 49ers have surrendered:

5 targets to Travis Homer Week 17
8 targets to Dalvin Cook in the Divisional Round
7 targets to Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams last week

The floor is there for Williams via his passing game work, but at $9,800 I have some trouble envisioning a big enough ceiling for my Captain spot. Big plays probably aren’t happening, and I don’t feel great about an outlier rushing performance to overlay his passing work.

My Planned Exposure: Under the field at CPT/MVP. Over the field in Flex.

Props: (Per SharpSide Lines)

Damien Williams Rec. yards: Over 31.5 (-115) —- NO BET

Damien Williams Receptions: Over 3.5 (-105) —- 2 Units
Update: This line has already moved to 4.5, +159 on the over. This is a NO BET for me at that level, or maybe a 1 unit gamble.

Damien Williams Rushing yards: Under 50.5 (-125) —- NO BET

Darwin Thompson Breakdown

7% Expected Ownership (7% Flex, <1% CPT)

He’s been on the field for 2% of snaps and 16% of snaps so far this post season. He has received 1 target and 1 rush attempt during that time on the field. At a price point of $2,700 DK and $6,000 FD, you are basically demanding that he either sees more playing time without significant warning or breaks a huge play in his 1 to 2 touches. We are generously projecting a reception and two caries, and even at that level he looks fairly unappealing.

My Planned Exposure: Very low or none. I hope to find a higher upside means of differentiation and salary savings.

Props: (Per SharpSide Lines)

Darwin Thompson Rushing Yards: Over 4.5 yards (-115) – NO BET

Chiefs Passing Game Breakdown

SFO Adj. Fpts Allowed Vs. QB: Rank 26
SFO Adj. Fpts Allowed Vs. WR: Rank 26
SFO Adj. Fpts Allowed Vs. TE: Rank 30

Passing Game Opportunity Metrics of Note:
Watkins MS Target Last 3: 8%, 6%, 31%
Hill MS Target/Air Last 3: 20%, 11%, 22%
Kelce MS Target/Air Last 3: 20%, 34%,12%
Hardman Routes Run, Last 2: 10 (DIV), 17 (AFCC)

Passing Game Efficiency Metrics of Note:
SF 42% Positive Pass Play Rate Allowed (2nd lowest)
SF -7.5 Expected Points Added vs. TE (2nd lowest)
SF 21.2 Expected Points Added vs. WR (5th lowest)
KC O-Line: 5% Blown Blocks Last 2
KC O-Line, Season: 16.7% Blown Blocks (4th most)
SF D-Line: 16.4% Blown Created Rate (6th most)

Patrick Mahomes Breakdown

71% Expected Ownership (53% Flex, 18% CPT)

Mahomes is somebody you can’t fully avoid no matter what I say in this section. True elite QBs are matchup independent and liable to produce in spite of the situation in front of them. One of the key measures of a QB’s true performance is their performance from a clean pocket. True stars will shine, while more modest QBs will exhibit signs of struggle despite the lack of pressure. Mahomes delivered 8.92 Yards per attempt and a rating over 111 when clean this season. There is no way to sit here and tell you he can’t get it done and carry the Chiefs to victory. He absolutely can.

That being said, there are some outs for Patrick to underwhelm.

1. Pressure from the 49ers defense: While the Chiefs’ line has blocked well in the postseason (3 sacks, and only 5% blown blocks allowed), they were among the leaders in blown block rate during the regular season. Patrick of course is incredible, and that only translated to a 5% adjusted sack rate. The 49ers were the best at actually reaching the QB though (9.6% adjusted sack rate), and could in fact do some damage if the Chiefs return to their regular season pass blocking form.

2. Minimized Time of Possession: The 49ers have the ability to sustain drives and bleed clock if they obtain a lead. The KC defense has previously shown a distinct run vulnerability, and that presents a distinct opportunity for the 49ers to do what they’ve done the entire post season.

3. Early Down Success Issues: The Chiefs probably aren’t in a position to have great success using traditional early down run plays against the 49ers defense, and would be in a very tough spot should they face long down and distance against the 49ers defense. The 49ers allowed just a 33.98% 3rd down success rate on the season.

The reason for mentioning all of these things isn’t to say “Don’t use Patrick.” You almost have to use him. He’s going to throw two TDs in all probability, and at that point you just aren’t going to have much luck replacing those raw points. What I will say is that using him in your captain spot might not be as brilliant of an idea as usual. He’ll be the highest owned captain, and there are plenty of paths for other players in this game to exceed his CPT value on a per dollar basis.

My Planned Exposure: Under the field at CPT/MVP. Near the field in Flex.

Props: (Per SharpSide Lines)

Patrick Mahomes Passing TDs: Over 1.5 (-235) – NO BET

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards: Under 299.5 (-118) – 1 Unit

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards: Under 30.5 (-109) – 1 Unit

Travis Kelce Breakdown

45% Expected Ownership (34% Flex, 11% CPT)

The expected workload in combination with Kelce’s price make him tremendously appealing on this slate. His ownership will reflect that, but he’s among the Chiefs who will be in the best position for a strong game.

— Workload: Kelce is a lock for 6+ targets, and has been held under 60 receiving yards just 3 times this season. He’s been held under 8 targets just 3 times.

— Matchup: If we expect the 49ers to have Jaquiski Tartt covering Kelce one on one this week with any regularity, then we should like Kelce in that spot. Tartt has been a quality defender this season production wise, but finished ranked 54th out of 85 qualifying safeties per Pro Football focus. Last week, he got torched by an elderly Jimmy Graham for a big play. He’s been bothered by a rib injury since Week 13, and missed the last 4 weeks of the regular season. He aggravated his injury last week. He has been limited in practice up to this point, and it’s fair to say he’s unlikely to be at his peak health for the game. Other potential players who could cover him include Dre Greenlaw, Fred Warner, and Jimmy Ward. Ward graded best of those players this season, but may be more concerned with helping keep the lid on speedster Tyreek Hill than covering the TE.

Kelce is the best TE in pro football, and as result will be the best TE the 49ers have seen. The 49ers’ ability to date to limit the position has been impressive, but Kelce’s talent is transcendent of such considerations. His price point of $9,600 DK / $12,500K FD isn’t high enough to deter me and neither is his early ownership projection.

My Planned Exposure: Near the field at CPT/MVP. Over the field in Flex.

Props: (Per SharpSide Lines)

Travis Kelce – Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-112) – 1 Unit

Travis Kelce – Over 5.5 Receptions (-167) – No Bet
Note: If you can get better than -130, I’d be in favor of the over here

Tyreek Hill Breakdown

40% Expected Ownership (32% Flex, 8% CPT)

Hill will prove to be a make or break decision this week. The workload projection for him will be high as it usually is, but on the single game slate there is very little margin for error if he underwhelms. The macro level matchup is poor, as the 49ers’ pass rush makes it difficult for plays to develop downfield, and the safety plays has been very strong for the majority of the season. The 49ers have been very difficult to beat deep. A lower potential for huge plays will leave us reliant on Hill being dominant in the short and intermediate area. His micro matchup will see him moving around to see coverage from both the inferior Ahkello Witherspoon and PFF top-ranked CB Richard Sherman. Neither player will end up being 100% responsible for Hill on most plays, but it’s fair to say most of the time he’ll be in no better than an average spot.

Hill is very expensive on DK ($11.000), but relatively cheap on FD ($12,000). This makes FanDuel the place where he is more likely to come through on the price. Hill checks the key boxes of projected volume, TD equity, and upside. He fails to check the boxes of price, low ownership, and matchup . I think being price sensitive on him is appropriate given the scenario, and I won’t be going out of my way to make him a centerpiece of my lineups.

My Planned Exposure: Under the field at CPT/MVP. Over the field in Flex playing on FD. Under on DK.

Props: (Per SharpSide Lines)

Tyreek HIll- Under 77.5 Receiving Yards (-130) – No Bet

Tyreek HIll- Under 5.5 Receptions (-155) – No Bet

Sammy Watkins Breakdown

27% Expected Ownership (23% Flex, 4% CPT)

Watkins disappeared for a massive stretch of this season, capping both ends with huge slate-breaking days. Nothing about this matchup suggests he’ll be in a position to double down on the explosive game he had last week. Slot defender K’Waun Williams has been a much improved player this season, grading out highly and limiting opponents in a big way. The overall coverage ecosystem for the 49ers is strong, and Watkins can’t check all that many boxes. He isn’t projected for a team-leading workshare. He’s not in a spot where high efficiency looks likely. He’s not a particularly high TD equity guy. His most appealing box you can check is his ownership. I happen to think his modest ownership is merited, and I am going to try to make lineups that focus on other players in the game.

My Planned Exposure: Under the field at CPT/MVP. Under the field in Flex.

Props: (Per SharpSide Lines)

Sammy Watkins Receiving Yards – Under 50.5 (-112) – 1 Units

Sammy Watkins Receptions – Under 3.5 (-112) – No Bet

Mecole Hardman Breakdown

28% Expected Ownership (26% Flex, 2% CPT)

Hardman played on 40% of snaps last game and saw an increase in routes run over recent weeks. His target share has been minuscule though, as has production, air yards share, and overall offensive involvement. Even at just $2,200 DK / $6,000 FD, the game we want from him has exactly 1 reasonable out: A TD.

His current TD odds are +325 (23.53%), which is not a great value considering we expect something like .16 receiving TDs for him in our projections. Summary: The field will own Hardman more than his TD odds and our expected TD rate. This is not fantastic, but you’ll need to find salary savings and lineup differentiation someplace. He’s somebody you have to consider in single game formats despite the long odds for a successful outcome. I don’t think he’s a strong captain option, but flex away.

My Planned Exposure: Under the field at CPT/MVP. At or slightly above the field in Flex.

Props: (Per SharpSide Lines)

Mecole Hardman Receiving Yards – Over 22.5 (-112) – No Bet

Mecole Hardman Receptions – Over 1.5 (+105) – 1 Unit

DeMarcus Robinson Breakdown

10% Expected Ownership (10% Flex, <1% CPT)

You can basically copy and paste the analysis of Mecole Hardman here. He’s in a similar range of snaps, route run, targets, and expected production. Oh, and your lineup won’t be worth any real money unless he finds the end zone, something our projection expects 17% of the time as compared to the Sharpside odds of 18% (+450). If the ownership and fantasy points projection is “correct,” he’s basically the same play quality as Hardman available at lower ownership and similar price. I’ll reluctantly pivot in his direction when possible, assuming his use gives me better odds at a unique lineup without substantially lowering my production expectation.

My Planned Exposure: Above the field in Flex.

Props: (Per SharpSide Lines)

DeMarcus Robinson Receiving Yards – Over 22.5 (even) – No Bet

Harrison Butker and Chiefs DST Breakdown

26% Butker Expected Ownership (26% Flex, <1% CPT)

Top players tend to include the kicker position in their build strategy for showdown, and this includes our own BigT44 (who’s Showdown record speaks for itself). With the Chiefs being the favored team, it usually makes more sense to get involved with that kicker at a higher rate than an underdog. However, I’ll detail in this piece my preference for the 49ers. I won’t be as high on Butker as I am on Gould.

As for the Chiefs DST (21% Expected Ownership (21% Flex, <1% CPT), I won’t be expecting them to have a ton of opportunity for sacks in this game myself. If you think this game goes differently than I do, by all means grab some leverage on a cheap flex option with lower end ownership. I have a different strategy in mind for my low end spending, and I’ll trust my read when I mostly fade the Chiefs. I think they’ll score something like 4 to 7 fantasy points if the 49ers control the game.

My Planned Butker Exposure: Below the field in Flex.
My Planned KC DST Exposure: Below the field in Flex.

San Francisco 49ers Projections Breakdown

Team Projections

49ers Running Game Breakdown

KCC RB Adj. Fpts Allowed: RB Rank 9

Rushing Opportunity Metrics of Note:
Mostert Snaps%, Playoffs: 34% / 82%
Coleman Snaps%, Playoffs: 46% / 15%
Brieda Snaps%, Playoffs: 17% / 4%

Rushing Efficiency Metrics of Note:
KC Ranked 4th in Zone Block Success rate allowed
KC Ranked 6th in Explosive Run% Allowed
SF Oline Rank 4th Best in Blown Blocks Rate

Raheem Mostert Breakdown

40% Expected Ownership (31% Flex, 9% CPT)

I detailed above how I expect the 49ers to dominate on the ground, and Mostert will have to be a portion of that if it is to come true. However, he’s priced as if he’s the lead back. The reality (based on snap ) is that he’s not if Tevin Coleman will be available and used in this game. His 82 usage last week was clearly a hot hand situation. The last time he played 82% of snaps was never. The field will be compelled to chase the 4 TD performance, and I totally understand why. However, I can’t do it. It’s not in my nature to look at a 3 man backfield that also features a recurring rushing share to WRs and say this is the guy I want to hang my hat on. Mostert has been incredible this season, but I’m afraid this is where I get off the bandwagon. I don’t think he does nothing in this game, but I also don’t think he clears his salary implied expectations to win this Showdown.

My Planned Exposure: Below the field in CPT and Flex.

Props: (Per SharpSide Lines)

Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards – Under 77.5 Yards (-125) – 1 Units

Raheem Mostert Receving Yards – Over 11.5 Yards (-112) – No Bet

Tevin Coleman Breakdown

20% Expected Ownership (18% Flex, 2% CPT)

I currently expect him to play Sunday, and I also expect the field to be light on him in terms of ownership. His injury is a shoulder issue, and thus the concern here is not about his ability to be productive if he plays. So long as he doesn’t cause additional damage, he’ll be full speed. The issue here is how much he plays. Will the 49ers elect to use him more situationally? Will he be used near the goal? These are all fair questions that we probably can’t know the answer to. Currently, I am inclined to use him based on the matchup if I remain confident that he’ll be effective when he plays. After all, he was the 49ers RB that broke the slate in the NFC divisional round. On a single game slate, we don’t need 4 TDs from him to be competitive. We probably only need one.

I won’t beat a dead horse in terms of the matchup here, but in combination with the other backs I expect the 49ers to do a lot of damage. If I think Mostert underwhelms, I must also think the combination of Coleman and Brieda outperforms. I’ll capture enough exposure here to secure and advantage over my opponents, but will stay far away from the lock button.

My Planned Exposure: Over the field in CPT and Flex.

Props: (Per SharpSide Lines)

Tevin Coleman Rushing TDs – +190 – No Bet

Matt Breida Breakdown

13% Expected Ownership (12% Flex, 1% or less CPT)

Recent usage doesn’t favor Breida at all. They’ve been reliant on either Coleman or Mostert fairly often in the back half of the season. Mostert was on the field for almost the entire NFC championship once Coleman went down, and who can blame them? Breida doesn’t fit my narrative perfectly of what happens when the 49ers lead. In that scenario, it will be the lead grinders pounding a soft KC run defense. However: It’s the Super Bowl. Both teams have two weeks to prepare. Kyle Shanahan knows he has an injured stud and an opponent that will be fully game planning against the dude that went berserk in the title game. So with that said, here are two scenarios where Breida could wind up on the winning showdown roster this weekend.

1) Schemed Situational Usage: With Coleman banged up and Breida having a versatile skill set, perhaps we see him vulture a TD by design.

2) Coleman Decoy / Limitation / Reinjury: It’s plausible Mostert would shoulder a workhorse role again if Coleman wasn’t a factor for any of these reasons, but I would bank on Breida being more involved than he was last week if Coleman isn’t full steam.

There is also the complete disappearing act we have seen from Breida’s route participation. He’s only been charted for 15 routes in the last 8 weeks (missed time with an ankle injury), but ran 85 through his first 9 games (Coleman was absent for some of it). Those routes (and potential target opportunities) could return if Breida is over his ankle trouble and the 49ers are thrust into an unfamiliar game environment. Correlating Breida usage with lineups where the Chiefs offense is successful makes sense to me.

My Planned Exposure: Over the field in CPT and Flex – correlated with Chiefs offense.

Props: (Per SharpSide Lines)

Matt Breida Rushing TDs – +285 – No Bet

49ers Passing Game Breakdown

KCC QB Adj. Fpts Allowed: Rank 20
KCC WR Adj. Fpts Allowed: Rank 31
KCC TE Adj. Fpts Allowed: Rank 4

Passing Game Opportunity Metrics of Note:
Garoppolo Attempts, Last 4: 27, 22, 19, 8
Kittle Last 4 MSTar: 30%, 32%, 28%, 13%
Samuel Last 4 MSTar: 22%, 22%, 33%, 38%
Sanders Last 4 MSTar: 22%, 18%, 11%, 12%
Bourne Last 4 MSTar: 11%, 0%, 28%, 13%

Passing Game Efficiency Metrics of Note:
KC Rank 25th in Pass EPA
KC Rank 6th in Pass DVOA
KC Rank 32 in WR Target %, 3rd in TE %
KC Rank 10th in adjusted sack rate

Jimmy Garoppolo Breakdown

47% Expected Ownership (35% Flex, 12% CPT)

If I run a median projection optimal lineup right now, I get Jimmy G as my captain. There is absolutely nothing special about his projected stat line either: 240 Pass yards, 9 rush yards, and 1.5 TDs. He’s just priced extremely cheap for a QB. Of course, this has been very very merited based on his recent opportunity. The 49ers are scoring all of their TDs on the ground, and Jimmy was attempting an absurdly low volume of passes.

We know from my breakdown of this game that I expect the 49ers to find success on the ground. But will they continue to score all of their TDs on the ground? Are there enough outcomes within the range where the 49ers must rely more heavily on the pass? Will they continue to fade big plays in the passing game? Will they simply regress to a more normalized distribution of offense? All of these things are what make his median projection of 16.87 acceptable if answered favorably for passing, and Jimmy G is one of the very best plays on the slate as a result.

Asking for 2 TD passes in a 54 game total isn’t much to ask from an efficient QB with plenty of weapons.

My Planned Exposure: Near the field in CPT, Over in Flex

Props: (Per SharpSide Lines)

Jimmy Garoppolo – Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-112) – 1 Unit

Jimmy Garoppolo – Under 240.5 Passing Yards – No Bet

Jimmy Garoppolo – Over 4.5 Rushing Yards- No Bet

George Kittle Breakdown

48% Expected Ownership (36% Flex, 12% CPT)

Kansas City has surrendered tons of production to the TE position, and Kittle’s recent stretch of low performance has everything to do with game script and nothing to do with him. We can see by his overall share of targets that he’s still actively involved in the offense, but the offense is simply executing fewer passes than normal. Even in the most likely game outcome (by my prediction), I still see Kittle with 5+ targets and a phenomenal opportunity to be efficient on those targets. This includes receiving TDs that haven’t been there in recent games for anyone on this team. Kittle has 12 games of 6 targets or more, and has run poorly with just 5 TDs on 107 targets. His price points on both DK and FD are way too low, and that should lead to high ownership. I still think it should be higher, and he belongs in your most optimal lineup.

My Planned Exposure: Over the field in CPT, Over in Flex

Props: (Per SharpSide Lines)

George Kittle – Under 73.5 receiving yards (-112) – 1 Unit
Note – I like him for DFS, but I expect to get there with a TD catch or two

George Kittle – Over 5.5 Receptions (-155) – No Bet

George Kittle – TD Prop +125 – No Bet
Note – I do see a about +3% gap in our projection vs. the implied odds. Small value here.

Deebo Samuel Breakdown

35% Expected Ownership (30% Flex, 5% CPT)

Deebo has been heavily involved in the offense during the playoffs, and is really emerging as the player they hoped he would be coming out of the draft. He’s productive with the ball in his hands no matter how you can get it to him. He doesn’t make the most optimal DK median build thanks to a price tag of $7,600, but his FD price is silly at $8500. He’s not in optimal #1, but he hits in optimal #2 there.

His matchup with the Chiefs’ outside DBs isn’t a great one, as they have limited WR production all season long. Kansas City has been far more favorable to production from TEs and RBs. There isn’t a lot of passing work to go around in this offense lately, and my expectation is that somebody on the 49ers who is a pretty good player will have to fall short in this game. As of now, I expect Samuel to be a candidate for that.

In terms of his total range of outcomes, he has a high enough ceiling that I wouldn’t suggest following me with 100% certainty. If this game goes differently than I expect, he’ll be a primetime candidate for work in a more pass-centric game script.

My Planned Exposure: Under the field in CPT, Under in Flex (exception: FanDuel)

Props: (Per SharpSide Lines)

Deebo Samuel – Under 53.5 Receiving Yards (-112) – 1 Unit

Deebo Samuel – Under 4.5 Receptions (-167) – No bet

Emmanuel Sanders Breakdown

29% Expected Ownership (24% Flex, 5% CPT)

The targets have not been there for Sanders, and in run heavy situations he hasn’t been out there as much to help block. His price has absolutely collapsed to point that is difficult to avoid, but at this point that is well in line with his usage in the offense. He’s so cheap that he winds up making the DK optimal build, but that doesn’t make me particularly excited one way or the other. I already noted that the WR spot isn’t ripe for big upside games against the Chiefs, and that the run game should be featured yet again for SF. This leaves me staring at Sanders and not knowing exactly what to do with him. In scenarios where I am right about the game script, he’ll probably kill my lineup. In scenarios in which this game is more of a shootout, you might not be able to win without him.

At the end of the day, I want to trust the projections. They are telling me he’s in line for something like 4 receptions in a typical game, and I’m willing at accept a little less if the 49ers wind up controlling things at an unfriendly level for the passing attack.

My Planned Exposure: Over the field on this underpriced player.

Props: (Per SharpSide Lines)

Emmanuel Sanders – Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-125) – No Bet

Emmanuel Sanders – Over 3.5 Receptions (+130) – 1 Unit
Note: The + odds here provide a little value I’m willing to take based on projection.

Kendrick Bourne Breakdown

15% Expected Ownership (14% Flex, 1% or less CPT)

The price point on Bourne puts him in the category of worthy gamble from a salary savings perspective on DK, but the issue is that we aren’t often getting a big game from him. Even if we see more reasonable pass attempt volume for San Francisco in this game, we’re still talking about 2.5 receptions for 27 yards as a most common output. Roughly 17% of the time, he’ll score and you’ll have a nice player on your hands. 83% of the time, he busts your lineup. His projected ownership is right in that general area, and that’s about where I expect I would own him come Sunday.

My Planned Exposure: Near the field.

Props: (Per SharpSide Lines)

Kendrick Bourne – Over 23.5 receiving yards (-112) – No Bet

Kendrick Bourne – Over 2.5 reception (+150) – No Bet

Robbie Gould and 49ers DST Breakdown

21% Gould Expected Ownership (21% Flex, 1% or less CPT)

I want to be over the field on the 49ers kicker in this situation. I do expect them to win the game and put up more points than the Chiefs, and somewhere in their 25+ points we’ll likely find a field goal. If we find 2, we’ll have a pretty decent value on our hands that can glue together a cashing lineup. If we find 3 FGs, now we’re in business.

18% 49ers Expected Ownership (18% Flex, 1% or less CPT)

It’s going to be hard to pull the trigger on a defense against Patrick Mahomes, so I doubt I am going to find any seriously high exposure to SF DST. However, priority number one is finding a unique lineup. With low ownership and some previously detailed paths to defensive success for them, I will force myself to bite the bullet and use them as a means to differentiate.

My Planned Exposure: Over the Field on Both