2019 NFL Win Totals: Will The Patriots Go Over Again?

Patriots Tom Brady(USA TODAY Sports)`

NFL season win totals have been released by sportsbooks like CG Technology and PointsBet, allowing bettors to get money down on their favorite numbers even before the NFL Draft later this month. The New England Patriots have the highest win total at 11, while the Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals are tied for the lowest number at five.

The Patriots have been at the top of this list or near it for pretty much the entire millennium. The defending Super Bowl Champions have the highest preseason win total for the fourth consecutive year. New England finished 11-5 in 2018, making it the ninth straight season New England has recorded 11 or more victories, dating back to 2009.

The Patriots have gone Over their preseason win total 13 times since 2002. The AFC East is slowly improving but no one has gotten rich betting against Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriot. Their historic run has shown no signs of slowing down as the Rams can attest.

Elsewhere, the Cleveland Browns are no longer the laughingstock of the NFL. The Browns went 1-31 from 2016-2017 but Cleveland improved to 7-8-1 last season after firing clueless head coach Hue Jackson in late October. The Browns’ win total increased by three games after closing at six last season; the second-lowest number ahead of only Arizona (5.5). Big things are expected from Baker Mayfield, OBJ and Co. this year. It’s strange to see, but Cleveland is actually the +140 favorite to win the AFC North at the Westgate LV SuperBook.

The Cardinals have new coach in Kliff Kingsbury at the helm but oddsmakers are expecting another long season in the desert. Arizona has the lowest win total for the second straight year and will pick first in the upcoming NFL Draft. It will be interesting to see if the Cardinals’ win total increases slightly, should they select Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray like many are predicting. PointsBet has Murray -842 to be selected first overall by Arizona.

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Here are some other interesting early win totals at CG Technology:

Kansas City Chiefs/New Orleans Saints/Los Angeles Rams 10.5

These three teams all reached the conference championship game last year, along with the Patriots. The NFL changes so much from year-to-year, there could be some value taking an Under here. The Chiefs are overhauling their defense, Drew Brees will be 40, and the Rams must guard against a Super Bowl hangover after losing to New England. It’s tough for teams to consistently win 11 games in the NFL. A lot has to go right.

Philadelphia Eagles 9.5

The Eagles are an interesting team. Alternating backup/starter Nick Foles is now in Jacksonville, so Carson Wentz needs to stay healthy. However, Philadelphia still has one of the most talented rosters in the NFL and the NFC East remains one of the shakier divisions in the NFL with the Giants mired in a quasi-rebuild and the Redskins ever the Redskins. After finishing 9-7 last year, the Eagles are a prime candidate to increase their win total, but Wentz must stay on the field with Foles no longer in Philly as an insurance policy.

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Pittsburgh Steelers 9

Is there a more intriguing team in the NFL this year than the Steelers? Pittsburgh finished a disappointing 9-6-1 last season and missed the playoffs. Gone are WR Antonio Brown and RB Le’Veon Bell, two of the most talented players at their position in the NFL. Will Pittsburgh be a better team without them? Addition by distraction subtraction? Oddsmakers say no. The Steelers’ win total was 10.5 before the start of last season and opens a game and a half lower in 2019.

Green Bay Packers 9

It’s a new era in Green Bay but will that lead to more wins? Mike McCarthy was fired last season after 13 years as Green Bay’s head coach. The Packers made a controversial move when they hired former Titans offensive coordinator, and Sean McVay protege, Matt LaFleur. While being tied to McVay is great, the Titans finished 25th in total offense last year and showed little imagination on that side of the ball under LaFleur. Aaron Rodgers is 35-years-old and the Packers are in win-now mode, but there are a lot of new faces in Green Bay. Winning 10 games in a tough division won’t be easy.

New York Giants 6

On one hand, the Giants appear to be rebuilding. On the other hand, they signed Golden Tate and the ancient Eli Manning is expected to remain the starting quarterback. Big Blue looks like a mess entering the season and oddsmakers agree. The Giants have the second lowest win total at 6, tied with five other teams. New York still has time to improve its roster through the draft but this number isn’t likely to get past 6.5, unless, let’s say half of the Giants’ 12 draft picks turn into decent-average starters to fill a variety of holes, particularly on defense.

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