2019 PGA Championship: Line Movement And Line Shopping At Bethpage Black

(USA TODAY Sports)

Golfers tee off at the infamous Bethpage Black course this Thursday for the second major of the year. If you’re new to golf betting, check out our golf betting tips resource to help get your started.

Unlike past years, it’ll be the PGA Championship following the Masters. The PGA of America moved their flagship tournament from August to May, one month ahead of the U.S. Open. The PGA hopes to capitalize on what is hoped to be better weather, course conditions, and tv ratings than the tournament is accustomed to in month of August.

The move couldn’t have come at a better time as sports fans around the world are eager to see if Tiger Woods can go back-to-back in major championships for the first time since 2006. It was just a month ago when Woods put the golf world — and sportsbooks — on notice at Augusta National.

Leading up to the Masters, Woods was anywhere from +1200 to +2000 depending on the time and shop. BetStars (soon to be FOX Bet) ran a super booster that put Woods at +10000 — a $10 bet would have paid out $1,000.  Tiger’s vintage Sunday finish wasn’t great for bookmakers, but the PGA Championship is in prime position to reap the benefits from the Tiger Effect. Meanwhile, sportsbooks just hope to get some of the the money lost on the Masters back.

Following the historic victory, oddsmakers were quick to make Woods the PGA Championship favorite, dropping Woods opening odds from +1800 to +800. Woods isn’t unfamiliar with success at Bethpage Black.  He won the U.S Open there in 2002 to complete the first two legs of the Grand Slam. In 2012, Woods was hobbled be a knee injury, which later required surgery, finishing T38th at The Barclays

Bettors don’t shy away from overpaying on Tiger even when he’s at his worst. Despite his popularity and recent win, several golfers have already moved ahead of Woods as favorites around the industry as of Tuesday afternoon.

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Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy, and Dustin Johnson

At +1000 three-time major champion Brooks Koepka is the odds-on favorite at PointsBet and +950 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Koepka was +1200, sitting behind Woods, Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy before teeing off in Dallas at the Byron Nelson last week.

Koepka looked in form shooting 20-under for a fourth place finish. The Florida State alumnus doesn’t lack confidence. In fact, he says major championships are the easiest to win.

It’s no wonder he feels that way. The 29-year-old has only missed two cuts out of 21 major championship appearances, and both came back in 2012 and 2013. Since then, Koepka has ten top-10 finishes, including a second place finish at the Masters behind none other than Tiger Woods last month.

Both Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson are +1000 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, ahead of Koepka and Woods +1100.

Where to shop:
Tiger Woods +1200 (PointsBet)
Brooks Koepka +1200 (888sport)
Dustin Johnson +1100 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Rory McIlroy  +1200 ( BetStars)

Jason Day
Opening odds +1800
Current/best odds +2300 (888sport)

You never know what you’re going to get from Jason Day, who is sometimes more of a threat to withdraw from a tournament than to win it. That might be why Day opened at +1800 but bettors have been able to grab him as high as +2500 early this week.

Backing Day may not be for the faint of heart, but he’s a world class talent and is a threat to win even when he’s not 100%. Day has five top-10 finishes this season. Since tieing for fifth place at the Masters, Day finished T24 at the Wells Fargo Championship two weeks ago.

Jordan Spieth
Opening odds +2900
Current/best odds +5000 (BetStars)

Spieth has taken a steep fall since dominating the tour with three major championships while spending 26 cumulative weeks as the world’s No. 1 ranked golfer between 2015 and 2017.

A win here would complete the Career Grand Slam for Spieth who finished 2nd place at the PGA Championship in 2015. To no one’s surprise, not many people are betting on Spieth to complete the feat.

Spieth, who is now No. 39 in the Official World Golf Rankings, was +2900 last week at  FanDuel Sportsbook, but that number has risen to +4800, making Tommy Fleetwood, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, among others, more heavily favored to win at FanDuel.

If you think there’s value in the line movement, your best bet is at BetStars where Spieth is +5000.

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Hideki Matsuyama
Opening odds +4800
Current/best odds +4000 (PointsBet)

Patrick Cantlay
Opening odds +4800
Current/best odds +4500 (as low as +3800) (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Phil Mickelson
Opening odds +5500
Current/best odds +8000 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

About the Author

  • Matt Schmitto (schmitto)

  • Matt Schmitto is a staff writer for RotoGrinders Sports Betting. He grew up in Texas, graduating from Texas Tech University. He has played high stakes DFS since 2013, and enjoys betting on golf, basketball and football – and whatever else is put in front of him. Schmitto is an advocate of The Bettor’s Oath.