In Week 1 of the Alliance of American Football (AAF), home teams, favorites and unders dominated. It was more of the same in Week 2. Home teams and unders both went 3-1. Underdogs did finally break through in the second week, covering two of four games on the betting line. Home teams are now 7-1 through two weeks, with the under cashing in six of eight games.
How do the teams stack up heading into Week 3? We have our power rankings with a new team claiming the top spot.
Editor’s Note: Get in one the action and play fantasy AAF on PrizePicks this weekend.
1. Orlando Apollos
After coming in at No. 2 last week, Orlando is firmly in the top spot, thanks to its impressive comeback win at San Antonio. The Apollos were the betting favorite to win the league at +250 last week. Those odds will be even lower when the new future numbers are released.
In by far the best game of the AAF season to date, the Apollos erased a 29-17 third quarter deficit to beat the Commanders 37-29. It was a bad beat for bettors on San Antonio +5. The Apollos took the lead after a pick-six and two-point conversion with 7:11 remaining in the game, making it the first time all day Orlando was covering the spread. The Apollos held off a late drive by San Antonio for the win and cover.
The reason I have Orlando the heavy favorite to win the AAF title is Steve Spurrier. He’s by far the best coach in the league. The Apollos have a talented roster too but Spurrier will often be the deciding factor in close games like Sunday when he outcoached Mike Riley.
One guy who will be sure to send Spurrier a Christmas card every year is Garrett Gilbert. The Ole’ Ball Coach is a master at developing quarterbacks and he’s making Gilbert some money in the AAF. Gilbert threw for 393 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday. He now has 640 yards and four scores in two games.
Gilbert isn’t only the beneficiary of Spurrier’s coaching, but he also has the best receiving tandem in the league with Charles Johnson and Jalin Marshall. Johnson exploded for 192 yards and a score on seven catches against the Commanders.
An argument can be made for Arizona in the top spot but Orlando has the best win of the season on the road in San Antonio and looks like the league’s top overall team. The Apollos will be double-digit favorites at home versus Memphis in Week 3.
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2. Arizona Hotshots
The Hotshots needed a late-rally to avoid being upset by Memphis as 16-point favorites. Arizona opened -11.5 and got bet up to -16 by kickoff. Memphis surprised everyone by taking a 12-0 halftime lead, only to see quarterback John Wolford and Arizona score 14 fourth quarter points and squeak out a 20-18 win on the road.
Not many people were expecting the game to be close because Memphis quarterback Christian Hackenberg struggled so badly in the opener. Hackenberg played poorly once again in Week 2, completing 14 of 25 passes for 102 yards and just 4.1 yards per attempt.
However, I wrote last week that Memphis wasn’t that bad other than the quarterback position. They showed that against Arizona. The Express have one of the top offensive and defensive lines in the AAF, they just need to find a better quarterback.
Arizona was obviously overvalued after beating Salt Lake easy in the opener. We found out the Stallions just aren’t very good. Arizona did show a lot by coming back in the fourth quarter. After struggling in the first half, Wolford completed 6 of 7 passes for 137 yards and two touchdowns in the second half.
Memphis will prove to be better than its 0-2 record, so I’m not going to be overly critical that the Express gave Arizona fits at home. Arizona should move to 3-0 next week when they travel to Salt Lake to face the winless Stallions.
3. San Antonio Commanders
I put the 1-1 Commanders over 2-0 Birmingham because I view San Antonio as the better team. San Antonio blew a 12-point lead at home but you can make an argument that the Commanders and Apollos are the two best teams in the league after watching that game.
First, let’s look at the positives with San Antonio. They have the best rushing attack in the AAF with the trio of Kenneth Farrow, Aaron Green and David Cobb at running back. Farrow looks like an NFL-caliber running back. After spending time with the Chargers and Patriots, he’s sure to get another shot in the NFL this summer. San Antonio racked up 175 rushing yards on Sunday.
The Commanders have one of the top front sevens in the league. After recording six sacks in the opener, San Antonio managed just one against Orlando. However, they did pressure Gilbert quite a bit throughout he game and forced a fumble that was returned for a touchdown. The Commanders’ pass rush will be too much for most offenses to deal with this year.
Now, the bad. San Antonio’s secondary was absolutely torched by Gilbert. The good news though is most offenses in the AAF won’t be able to challenge the Commanders the same way because they don’t have the coaching and offensive personnel that Orlando possess.
The other thing that concerns me with San Antonio is the play of quarterback Logan Woodside. He completed 20 of 39 passes for 223 yards, one touchdown and an interception. The stats don’t tell the entire story though. For the second straight week. Woodside constantly threw into coverage. He actually should have had five picks in the game. Four were dropped by Orlando defenders.
Marquise Williams played one series at quarterback in the second quarter, rushing for 32 yards on three carries. We could see more of Williams this week against San Diego if Woodside continues to be erratic. He adds another element to the offense with his ability to run the ball.
The Commanders are still a title contender but it should be pointed out they played both games in San Antonio so far, where they have the AAF’s best home-field advantage. We’ll see how the Commanders perform on the road this week in a rematch with the Fleet.
4. Birmingham Iron
The Iron are the toughest team for me to judge right now. Birmingham is 2-0 but they have faced arguably the two worst quarterbacks in the AAF: Hackenberg and Austin Allen. That’s helped the Iron defense to allow just nine points in their first two games.
Despite facing bad quarterbacks, Birmingham’s defense is playing well. The Iron allowed just 3.94 yards per play to Salt Lake. The issue is Birmingham’s offense. The Iron took advantage of mistakes by the Stallions and were lucky to escape with a 12-9 win. The offense put up just 216 total yards and managed only 3.43 yards per play. The Iron failed to cover as 7-point favorites.
Birmingham quarterback Luis Perez has been solid through two games but he’s having trouble getting the Iron offense into the end zone. On Saturday, Perez completed 24 of 38 passes but for only 184 yards. Birmingham will need more out of its offense when it faces the better teams in the AAF like Orlando, Arizona and San Antonio.
The Iron are likely to be 3-0 after facing bottom-feeders Atlanta this week. Even with another impressive win, we won’t know how good Birmingham is until we see its offense go up against San Antonio in Week 4.
5. San Diego Fleet
The Fleet made a quarterback change for Week 2, benching Mike Bercovici in favor of Philip Nelson. Nelson was far from impressive on Sunday but San Diego managed to overcome an early 9-0 deficit to beat Atlanta 24-12. The Fleet covered as a 9.5-point favorite thanks to a field goal with 38 seconds left in the game.
Nelson started out slowly but played better in the second half, finishing 14 of 30 for 142 yards. San Diego receivers certainly didn’t help with four drops in the first half but the bottom line is Nelson needs to get better for San Diego to become a serious playoff contender. He may also want to think twice before doing whatever the heck this is again…
There are some bright spots with the Fleet though, starting with their defense. San Diego has given up just 24 points in two games. After Atlanta jumped out to an early 9-0 lead, San Diego held the Legends to just three points the rest of the way. Atlanta finished with only 222 yards of total offense.
San Diego leaned on its running game Sunday night, gaining 185 yards on 36 carries (5.1 YPC). Ja’Quan Gardner led the way with 104 yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries (6.9 YPC). The Fleet will need more from their passing game against the AAF’s better defenses but they have a formidable 1-2 punch in the backfield with Gardner and Terrell Watson.
San Diego isn’t in the class of the top-4 teams but if the Fleet can somehow get better quarterback play, they’ll compete for the final playoff spot. Nelson will need to start playing better in a hurry, as the San Antonio defense is waiting in Week 3.
6. Memphis Express
As stated above, I thought Memphis was better than it looked after its 26-0 Week 1 loss in Birmingham. The Express defense kept them in the game until fading late and they averaged 4.0 yards per carry. It’s just hard to trust Christian Hackenberg. Memphis played even better at home in Week 2 versus Arizona but once again, the Express couldn’t overcome poor play by Hackenberg.
We know Memphis doesn’t have a quarterback right now and they likely won’t compete for a playoff spot. However, if the Express do find a quarterback, they’ll be dangerous. Memphis may have the best offensive line in the AAF. Zac Stacy rushed for 101 yards on 19 carries against a good Arizona front seven.
Despite playing two of the top defenses in the league, Memphis is averaging a respectable 4.2 yards per carry. That’s even more impressive when you consider how bad Hackenberg has been in the two games.
Memphis showed last week that they are a pretty good team outside of the quarterback position. There will be value betting the Express as underdogs this season. We’ll have a chance to test that theory again this week when Memphis is around a two-touchdown dog in Orlando.
Editor’s Note: Get in one the action and play fantasy AAF on PrizePicks this weekend.
7. Salt Lake Stallions
The one team I was way off on entering the season is Salt Lake. I bet the Stallions at +400 to win the AAF before the start of the year. I couldn’t sell that ticket for 25 cents now. And I will take 25 cents if anyone is interested.
If you’re looking for a silver lining with Salt Lake, they did play the first two games on the road and were without starting quarterback Josh Woodrum Saturday against Birmingham. Austin Allen got the start and was a complete disaster. Allen completed 15 of 31 passes for 114 yards. He averaged just 3.7 yards per attempt and that’s not easy to do at any level. Allen missed wide open receivers throughout the game and despite all of that, Salt Lake had a chance to tie/win late.
The Stallions do have a strong running game with Joel Bouagnon and Branden Oliver. The two combined for 129 yards on 25 carries against a good Birmingham defense.
There’s a chance the Stallions improve once Woodrum returns but to be honest, they have been one of the worst-coached teams through two games. Mistakes and mental errors are killing drives for Salt Lake. Add to that awful quarterback play and it’s easy to understand why the Stallions are 0-2.
Salt Lake plays its first home game of the year when it hosts Arizona Saturday. The Stallions will need an upset as double-digit underdogs to save their season.
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8. Atlanta Legends
There really isn’t much to say about Atlanta. The Legends are clearly the worst team in the AAF, by quite a bit. After jumping out to a 9-0 lead against San Diego in the first quarter, Atlanta got outscored 24-3. In three AAF games (regular season and preseason), the Legends have been outscored 101-26.
Matt Simms actually wasn’t awful against San Diego, completing 17 of 25 passes for 160 yards, one touchdown and an interception. I’m no Simms fan but to be fair, it’s not all his fault. Atlanta currently has my last-ranked offensive line, receivers, defense and coaching staff. Besides that, the team is in good shape.
Atlanta will host Birmingham on Sunday. The Legends may have some value depending on how large the spread is by kickoff, but a win over the 2-0 Iron isn’t likely.