2019 NFL Draft Props: Comparing Betting Lines To Mock Drafts
The NFL Draft is two weeks away and PointsBet sportsbook in New Jersey is offering different props for bettors to choose from. Who will go No. 1? Which team will land Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins? We break down some of the most popular prop bets and compare them to mock drafts to see if there is any value for bettors.
PointsBet is already offering 11 different NFL Draft props with even more on the way. Ron Shell, VP of Customer and Insights at PointsBet, told us more props will be offered the week leading up to the draft.
“We plan on having even more props up and we get closer to the event,” said Shell. “Our team is looking at the different markets and deciding which ones will have the most interest to bettors. We already have a lot of bets on the ones we are offering, so we understand this is something people enjoy wagering on.”
I decided to look at two popular mock drafts and compare them to some of the props being offered at PointsBet. I chose mocks from Mel Kiper (ESPN) and Charley Casserly (NFL.com). Some people don’t like Kiper but the fact is his mock drafts are one of the most accurate over the last decade. Casserly is a former NFL GM who still has many sources inside the league.
Player Drafted No. 1
Murray is a huge favorite to go No. 1 to Arizona at -1000. Both Kiper and Casserly agree, and so does virtually every other mock draft on the planet. Murray is visiting the Cardinals this week. That doesn’t always matter but it’s significant in this case. Arizona just selected Josh Rosen in the first round last year, so it’s doubtful they would be hosting another QB unless they were seriously consider drafting him. The Jets took Sam Darnold last year and have no interest in taking another QB early in Round 1.
Last year, the first pick was more uncertain with four highly rated quarterbacks in the draft. I got Baker Mayfield +1000 three days before the draft. By the time the the Browns were on the clock, Mayfield was -400 or more. This year the first pick is easier to predict with the Cardinals reportedly locked in on Murray.
Team to Draft Kyler Murray
As stated above, the Cardinals are the overwhelming favorites to take Murray No. 1. However, one thing to note is the Raiders also appear to be very high on the Heisman Trophy winner. Oakland has a lot of draft capital to work with and it’s not out of the question they could offer Arizona a package to move up to No. 1 that is too good for the Cardinals to turn down. Oakland is the only other team that looks like a realistic possibility to land Murray, so the Raiders +900 is worth a shot with Arizona being priced too high for most bettors.
Team to Draft Dwayne Haskins
Here is where things start to get tricky. It was believed Haskins was a lock to be the second quarterback selected early in the draft process. Now reports are suggesting he may be dropping. It’s draft season, so those reports may be true or they may be teams blowing smoke.
Kiper still has Haskins going No. 6 to the Giants. Casserly also has the Giants taking Haskins but not at six. He mocks Alabama stud DL Quinnen Williams to New York, then has the Giants trading up to 13 with the Dolphins to select Haskins. The move would allow New York to jump ahead of NFC East rival Washington, another team in the market for a quarterback.
It’s interesting that Casserly has the Giants passing on Haskins at six. More mocks seem to be leaning that way and the Redskins’ odds to draft Haskins have shorten. They are down to +250 after being close to +400 a month ago. Don’t be surprised if a team like Washington or Miami tries to trade up ahead of the Giants to grab Haskins.
First RB Drafted
This one is interesting because while most people have Jacobs as the top RB in this class, it’s not unanimous. Some scouts and NFL Draft analysts prefer Sanders to Jacobs. This also isn’t a year where one RB is way ahead of everyone else like an Ezekiel Elliott or Saquon Barkley, making Sanders at +500 an intriguing option for bettors.
Kiper has Jacobs as his top running back but not being drafted until early Round 2 to Oakland. He doesn’t have Sanders going until the third round with Damien Harris and David Montgomery coming off the board in Round 2 after Jacobs.
Casserly only projects the first round and like Kiper, he doesn’t have any running backs going until Round 2. The bottom line is with no sure-fire first round RB in this draft, there is value looking elsewhere than the -400 favorite Jacobs. Running back is the one offensive position where many mocks disagree on which player will be selected first and when. I took a shot on Sanders +500 and Montgomery +850. Jacobs’ odds are just too steep at a position where different teams value different skill sets.
First WR Drafted
The WR position isn’t quite as wide-open as RB with the freakish D.K Metcalf expected to go off the board first. He actually isn’t bad value at -167. I think there’s a much more likely chance that Metcalf is the first receiver taken than Jacobs being the top running back drafted. Still, there are a couple other receivers who could sneak ahead of Metcalf.
Kiper has Metcalf going No. 12 to Green Bay and Marquise Brown No. 26 to the Colts in the first round. Casserly has Metcalf No. 19 to Tennessee, Marquise Brown No. 25 to Baltimore and A.J. Brown No. 26 to Indianapolis in his first-round mock. Kiper doesn’t have A.J. Brown going until the third round, so you can see there is some disagreement after Metcalf.
Another name to watch is Hakeem Butler, who is the second betting favorite at +500. Oddsmakers and scouts seem to like Butler more than draft analysts, so he’s a player who could surprise on draft day. Kiper has Butler going in Round 3 to Seattle. I like Metcalf and Butler here. Metcalf is likely the first receiver off the board but I also believer Butler will go higher than many mock drafts are projecting.