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2023 Houston Astros Preview: Futures Odds, Lineup, Rotation, Bullpen Projections

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2023-03-31 17:52:52

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Nick Galaida is here to break down the Houston Astros pitching rotation and lineup as he prepares you for the 2023 MLB season. Follow along for an in-depth preview, along with a look at current odds, projections, and picks. Get a head start on the baseball action with PrizePicks Promo Code GRINDERS for a $100 deposit bonus.

Since 2017, the Houston Astros have never ended their season prior to the American League Championship Series in October. In that span, they have four World Series appearances, including two titles. Nearly completely removed from their cheating scandal, the baseball community simply has to acknowledge that this is one of the most well-run organizations in baseball from top to bottom.

This past winter, Houston lost reigning American League Cy Young winner Justin Verlander to the New York Mets, and there are numerous key players battling injuries to begin the year, including “(player-popup #lance-mccullers)Lance McCullers Jr, Jose Altuve, and Michael Brantley.

Below, we take a look at this roster position-by-position, and provide insight into the futures market!

Starting Lineup

Catcher, Martin Maldonado

On Opening Day, Martin Maldonado went 1-for-3 at the dish, finishing the afternoon with a .333 batting average. Though nothing to write home about for most players, Maldonado might find it worth grabbing a pen and paper. In his career, Maldonado owns a .209 batting average and a .634 OPS. He has been even worse in recent seasons, with a .179 batting average and a .586 OPS since the beginning of 2021.

The Astros clearly value him for his skills behind the plate – ranking in the 89th percentile in pop time to second base last year. He also demonstrates good rapport with the pitching staff and is an above-average framer.

Expect his bat to continue to struggle, but for him to continue to get plenty of playing time regardless.

First Base, Jose Abreu

This past winter, Jose Abreu signed a three-year, $58.5 million contract to be the first baseman for the Astros. Abreu’s power numbers have regressed each of the last two seasons, but what he has lost in power, he has made up for by increasing his contact and walk rates. Since 2020, his ISO has regressed from .300 to .141, but his contact rate has improved from 74.8% to 84.6% and his walk rate has increased from 6.9% to 9.1%.

Last year, Abreu had a 20.4% line drive rate, which ranked 86th among 205 hitters with at least 400 plate appearances. He was at least 35% better than the league-average hitter against both right- and left-handed pitching. Expect him to be productive again in 2023.

Second Base, Jose Altuve

According to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, Jose Altuve was not placed on the 60-day injured list prior to Opening Day, meaning that he could still return to the Major League lineup by late May. The move was further supported by comments from general manager Dana Brown, who said “we’re very optimistic he could get back…I’m hoping he’s going to heal faster.”

Altuve’s fractured right thumb, which he suffered during the World Baseball Classic, brings with it a dark cloud for his 2023 forecast. Hand injuries have a tendency to nearly eradicate power production for nearly a year, which is a red flag for a player who ranked in only the sixth percentile in average exit velocity and fifth percentile in HardHit% in 2022 when healthy.

He will remain a disciplined, high-contact hitter upon his return to action, but an ineffective Altuve could be a major blow to Houston’s offensive attack.

Third Base, Alex Bregman

In 2022, Alex Bregman walked in at least 11.0% of his plate appearances for the fifth consecutive season, and he struck out fewer times than he walked for the third time in that span. Despite declining power numbers in recent years, Bregman continued to display one of the most disciplined approaches in baseball – ranking in the 94th percentile in outs above average and the 99th percentile in chase rate.

His quality of contact, similar to Altuve, left much to be desired, but his defense returned to near-elite-level production, which made him one of the most valuable third basemen in the entire league.

On Opening Day, Bregman struck out twice, which is not exactly what we are accustomed to seeing from a player on his birthday. Tonight, and going forward, expect his contact rates to return to normal. He is no longer a threat to win MVP, but the Astros still feel plenty fortunate to pencil him into the lineup each night.

Shortstop, Jeremy Pena

Last year, Jeremy Pena had big shoes to fill, replacing Carlos Correa, who had consistently been one of the premier shortstops in baseball during his tenure in Houston. As a rookie, he hit 22 home runs, stole 11 bases, and played mostly excellent defense at the six – his home run total was exactly equal to Correa’s 2021 number, despite the fact that Pena played 12 fewer games.

If there is anything concerning to note about Pena’s rookie year, it relates to his approach at the plate. Among 205 players with at least 400 plate appearances, Pena ranked 193rd in swing% on pitches outside of the strike zone. He also ranked in the bottom half of the league on contact% on pitches in the strike zone. He whiffed over 40% of the time against breaking balls and offspeed pitches, making him particularly vulnerable to a sophomore slump if he begins seeing more of those offerings in 2023.

Still only 25 years old, the ceiling is still extremely high for Pena. However, the floor is lower than many people realize.

Outfield, Yordan Alvarez

How good was Yordan Alvarez in 2022? He ranked in the 100th percentile in average exit velocity, HardHit%, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel percentage. Incredibly, he maintained a 63rd percentile strikeout rate and chased pitches outside of the zone less often than almost any player in baseball. Among players with at least 400 plate appearances, he ranked fifth in home runs per plate appearance and third in home run to fly ball ratio.

On Opening Day, Alvarez hit his first home run of the new season. In 2022, he had a .570 slugging percentage or higher against fastballs, breaking pitches, and offspeed offerings – leaving him without a major vulnerability at the dish. He was 83% better than the league-average hitter against southpaws and 86% better than the league-average hitter against right-handed pitching – making him immune to platoon splits. Still, he remains 10:1 at FanDuel sportsbook to lead the league in dingers this summer.

In the era of Shohei Ohtani, Alvarez is likely to be punished by voters for not contributing much else beyond his bat. That does not mean you cannot take advantage each day in DFS at places like PrizePicks.

Outfield, Jake Meyers

On Opening Day, Jake Meyers batted seventh, ending the day 0-for-3 with two strikeouts. His 2023 debut was less than inspiring, considering his lackluster 2022 campaign, during which he had only one home run and nine extra-base hits in 52 games played.

Though it is possible that a shoulder injury impacted his performance at the plate last summer, the fact remains that he owns a .241 batting average and a 32.5% strikeout percentage in his 102 MLB games. Against right-handed pitching, he has a .227 batting average, .624 OPS, and a 77 wRC+ – 23% worse than the league-average hitter.

He is far from a safe bat to make any impact at all with the bat on a nightly basis. His minor league track record suggests that there is hope for better results ahead, but poor plate discipline and an inability to hit anything other than fastballs at the major league level leave more than a few doubts about whether or not that potential will ever manifest.

Outfield, Kyle Tucker

In his first two full-seasons in the MLB, Kyle Tucker has averaged 30 home runs, carrying a 9.1% walk rate and a 17.1% strikeout percentage. In 2022, he ranked in the 75th percentile in average exit velocity, 63rd percentile in HardHit%, and 89th percentile in xwOBA. He had good swing decisions and played excellent defense in the outfield. Simply, he was a star.

Still only 26 years old, there is room for Tucker to get even better. He is likely the second-best hitter in this Houston lineup and figures to be a perennial All-Star for the next decade.

Designated Hitter, Michael Brantley

Last year, Michael Brantley played in less than 75% of his team’s possible games for the first time since 2017, due to a shoulder injury that ended his campaign on June 26. Health aside, Brantley remained a disciplined hitter with a rare contact ability, striking out fewer times than he walked for the second time in his career.

In 2023, he opened the season on the injured list, casting doubts as to how much we will see him this upcoming summer. His OPS has declined each of the last two years, but he still hits the ball with authority, making him a strong designated hitter option for Houston if he is healthy.

According to Chandler Rome, manager Dusty Baker said that Brantley will “probably” be on the injured list for longer than 10 days to begin the campaign.

Pitching Staff

Starting Pitcher:

Starting Pitcher, Framber Valdez

Framber Valdez finished fifth in the American League Cy Young voting in 2022 thanks to a 2.82 ERA, 3.31 xERA, and a 3.06 FIP. If the award was given out to the most consistently reliable pitcher, Valdez would have likely finished even higher.

From April 25 to September 18, Valdez posted 25 consecutive quality starts, which set a new Major League record. In that span, he had a 2.41 ERA, 2.97 FIP, and a 1.07 WHIP. He struck out only 23.8% of opposing hitters, but he generated an incredulous 66.0% ground ball rate, which consistently helped him limit the damage done against him, despite not being a maestro for inducing soft contact.

Last season, Valdez’s 66.5% ground ball rate was five percent higher than the next-best pitcher to throw at least 140 innings, and it was an incomprehensible 9.8% better than the next-best pitcher to throw at least 150 innings.

Valdez allows far more hard contact than is desirable, but he forces nearly all of that hard contact into the ground with his devastating sinker. If he can continue to limit line drives and fly balls at the same rate that he has the last two seasons, he has one of the highest floors of any pitcher in the league. A Cy Young award does appear to be out of his reach though, considering voters’ discrimination against players who do not generate many strikeouts.

Starting Pitcher, Cristian Javier

In stark contrast to his teammate Framber Valdez, Christian Javier had the lowest ground ball rate of any pitcher to throw at least 100 innings in 2022. He also had the highest fly ball rate.

Fortunately for Javier, he ranked in the 82nd percentile in HardHit% last year. As a result, he finished 42nd in home run to fly ball rate out of 140 pitchers who tossed at least 100 innings. Keeping the ball in the yard at a respectable rate, he ended with a superb 2.54 ERA, 2.43 xERA, and a 3.16 FIP in 148.2 innings of work.

Javier’s biggest impediment to winning individual accolades is his inability to get efficient outs. In 2022, he ranked 139th in pitches per batter faced out of 140 pitchers who completed at least 100 frames. Last year, both right- and left-handed batters had a .189 batting average or lower against Javier. Immune to platoon splits, Javier is improved command from becoming a bonafide star on the mound. His tendencies as a fly ball pitcher give him a much lower floor than many other starters in the league, but the ceiling is also extraordinarily high.

Starting Pitcher, “(player-popup #lance-mccullers)Lance McCullers Jr

Per Chandler Rome, “(player-popup #lance-mccullers)Lance McCullers Jr threw off of flat ground last weekend but remains without a timetable for throwing off of a mound. He is dealing with a muscle strain in his forearm, which he suffered during a spring training bullpen session.

Beginning the season on the injured list has been a common theme for McCullers Jr. throughout his career. He threw only 47.2 innings in 2022, 55.0 innings in 2020, and never more than 128.1 innings prior to that.

When healthy, McCullers Jr. has been a dependable presence in the rotation, with a 3.48 ERA and a 3.55 FIP. He has flashed brilliance at times, including a 3.16 ERA, 3.39 xERA, and a 3.52 FIP across 162.1 innings in 2021. However, his struggles against lefties and his inability to stay healthy limit his ceiling substantially. We do not know when we will see him in 2023, leaving the Astros unusually thin in their starting rotation to begin the year.

Starting Pitcher, Jose Urquidy

Jose Urquidy was a full-time member of the Houston rotation for the first time in his career last season, finishing with a 3.94 ERA, 4.56 xERA, and a 4.60 FIP. However, his path to those numbers was far from linear – surrendering at least four earned runs in eight starts, but two earned runs or fewer in 15 other turns through the rotation.

Urquidy’s volatility appeared to stem mostly from stark platoon splits. Facing righties, he had a 5.24 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, and gave up 2.0 home runs per nine innings. Against lefties, he was much better, with a 3.89 FIP, 1.03 WHIP, and a 1.2 home run per nine innings rate.

It says a lot that Houston did not trust him with a starting role in last year’s postseason. It’s not difficult to see why, considering the fact that he ranked in the 18th percentile in average exit velocity, 25th percentile in HardHit%, and 16th percentile in barrel rate in 2022. Theoretically, he could generate more whiffs if he elevated his cutter usage against right-handed batters, but he lacks an effective third pitch, which limits his potential heading into 2023.

Starting Pitcher, Luis Garcia

Luis Garcia began last season throwing his cutter 19.3% of the time. By May, he increased that usage to 35.0%, which is where it remained for the vast majority of the summer until he cut back on it slightly in September. In April, Garcia had a 4.15 ERA and a 5.19 FIP. Following the increase in cutter usage, he had a 3.65 ERA and a 3.73 FIP across his final 24 starts.

Garcia ranked in the 73rd percentile in whiff% and the 53rd percentile in chase rate in 2022, but he continued to throw his fastball far too often. His cutter, curveball, and slider each generated a 35.1% whiff rate or better in 2023. There is more upside here if he can figure out how to throw some of his more effective secondary offerings for strikes.

Bullpen:

Relief Pitcher, Ryan Pressly

Since joining the Astros full-time in 2019, Ryan Pressly owns a 2.57 ERA, 2.41 FIP, 33.7% strikeout percentage, 6.1% walk rate, and a 0.97 WHIP. He has lost some of his fastball velocity in recent seasons, but he has compensated by throwing more sliders and curveballs. Opposing batters had a .152 batting average against his slider in 2022 and a .133 batting average against his curveball. The floor remains extremely high for Pressly in 2023 at the backend of this Houston arm barn.

Relief Pitcher, Hector Neris

In 2021, Hector Neris had a 5.23 FIP and a 1.66 WHIP against left-handed batters, compared to a 3.22 FIP and a 0.80 WHIP against right-handed batters. The ghastly WHIP against lefties was driven almost exclusively by an incredulous 17.4% walk rate.

In his first season in Houston, he made his fastball his primary offering against lefties and eliminated his sinker completely. The result was a 1.76 FIP, 5.9% walk rate, and a 0.97 WHIP. He also remained his usually elite level of production against right-handed hitters.

The Neris experience has become far less volatile with his new approach, making him one of the more reliable setup options in the league.

Relief Pitcher, Rafael Montero

Rafael Montero was excellent in 2022, with a 2.37 ERA, 2.70 xERA, and a 2.64 FIP. Increased fastball velocity helped him elevate his strikeout percentage from 18.7% in 2021 to 27.0% last year. His 40th-percentile walk rate remains a concern, and an over-reliance on his fastball makes him slightly riskier against lefties, but he is a high-quality seventh-inning option for manager Dusty Baker.

Relief Pitcher, Ryne Stanek

Ryne Stanek allowed an earned run in only six of his 59 appearances in 2022, per Baseball Prospectus. His 1.15 ERA and 3.02 FIP were both career-best numbers, though his 13.8% walk rate remained among the worst in the game. He has walked more than 10% of opposing batters each of the last six seasons, making it unlikely that we see this trend change in the near future. He is best used in lower-leverage situations.

Relief Pitcher, Bryan Abreu

Opposing hitters had a .163 batting average with only five extra-base hits in 137 plate appearances against “(player-popup #bryan-abreu)Bryan Abreu”:/players/bryan-abreu-814587’s slider in 2022. Abreu ended the year with a 1.94 ERA, 2.96 xERA, and a 2.12 FIP – his best numbers as a professional.

Similar to Stanek, his 10.5% walk rate likely keeps him in the sixth and seventh inning rather than in true high-leverage spots. Improved command would make him a closer on any team in baseball.

Houston Astros – Futures Pick & Prediction

The Houston Astros have won 95 games or more in five consecutive seasons and have made the American League Championship Series in an incredible six straight years. However, heading into 2023, their pitching staff is the worst that it has been in that span. The absence of Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley for the early portion of the season limits the upside for this group offensively, not to mention a number of red flags in “(player-popup #jeremy-pena)Jeremy Pena”:/players/jeremy-pena-3202718’s approach at the dish.

Defensively, Houston projects to be near the league average. Outside of an impressive bullpen, there is not a lot to love about this roster. Houston likely still finds a way to win 90 games as a result of exceptional player development systems and a strong organizational culture. The upside is simply not there – take the under on their regular season win total.

PICK: Under 95 wins (-105, DraftKings)

March 31 – Houston Astros DFS Pick’em

About the Author

nickgalaida
Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom