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2023 New York Yankees Preview: Futures Odds, Lineup, Rotation, Bullpen Projections

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2023-03-28 14:36:49

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Nick Galaida is here to break down the New York Yankees’ pitching rotation and lineup as he prepares you for the 2023 MLB season. Follow along for an in-depth preview, along with a look at current odds, projections, and picks. Get a head start on the baseball action with PrizePicks Promo Code GRINDERS for a $100 deposit bonus.

On July 2, the New York Yankees were 58-21, on pace for 119 wins, but then finished 41-42. They still managed to win the American League East division, but they were swept in four games during the ALCS in October, extending their championship drought to 13 years.

Aaron Boone Boone will return in 2023 for his sixth season and he will be joined by Aaron Judge, who was re-signed to a nine-year, $360 million deal this past winter. Carlos Rodon was brought in on another sizable free-agent contract but will begin the year on the injured list.

Below, we take a look at this roster position-by-position, and provide insight into the futures market!

Starting Lineup

Catcher, Jose Trevino

In 2022, Jose Trevino ranked in the 100th percentile for framing behind the plate. He won the platinum glove in the American League for his contributions, becoming the first catcher in either league to win the award since Yadier Molina in 2015.

Trevino leaves much to be desired with the bat and his pop time ranked in only the 32nd percentile, but he is still an asset for the Yankees heading into 2023 at a position that places extreme emphasis on defense first.

First Base, Anthony Rizzo

Prior to last season, we said that the “short porch in left field could help the veteran (Anthony Rizzo) flirt with 30 home runs for the first time since 2017 as he looks to get paid next winter with a new contract.” Rizzo ended up hitting 32 home runs in only 130 games played, posting a career-high .256 ISO and 10.9% barrel percentage in the process.

Rizzo elevated his launch angle nearly five degrees from 2021 to 2022, helping him to hit the ball in the air 49.3% of time, which ranked ninth-highest among players with at least 400 plate appearances.

He signed a two-year, $40 million contract to return to New York this past winter. He is a near-lock for 25 home runs and a sub-20% strikeout rate. Every team in baseball could use a Rizzo.

Second Base, Gleyber Torres

Before discussing anything else about Gleyber Torres in 2022, his defensive improvements need to be addressed. In 2021, Torres played 107 games at shortstop and ranked in the second percentile in outs above average. In 2022, the Yankees finally let him play his natural position at second base, which improved his outs above average to the 42nd percentile – perfectly acceptable, albeit nothing to celebrate.

Equally as important were the gains he made at the plate. He improved from the 15th percentile in average exit velocity to the 76th percentile. He also increased his barrel rate from the 43rd percentile to the 75th percentile thanks to a 3.3-degree elevation in launch angle, which increased his fly ball rate from 36.2% in 2021 to 45.9% in 2022.
Torres still swings through too many pitches and does not draw enough walks, but New York fans would be wise to think twice before automatically including him in trade discussions again this July. There are not many second basemen in the league more productive than Torres.

Third Base, Josh Donaldson

In 2022, Josh Donaldson posted his worst overall numbers since his rookie season in 2012. His average exit velocity, HardHit%, xwOBA, barrel percentage, zone contact rates, and plate discipline regressed across the board.

Most concerning was a 6.4% increase in swings on pitches outside of the strike zone compared to 2021. The driving force behind this problematic plate discipline trend appears to be the result of Donaldson seeing a career-high 36.5% breaking balls last season. Donaldson had a .189 batting average and a .344 slugging percentage against those offerings, whiffing 35.5% of the time.

Simply, the league has figured out that Donaldson cannot hit breaking balls. His defense at third base remains excellent, but it would not be surprising to see Donaldson get fewer and fewer starts this year as the season progresses. His age is also working against him.

Shortstop, Anthony Volpe

Following a torrid spring training, Anthony Volpe earned himself a spot on the Opening Day roster for New York. In 110 games at Double-A last year, he hit .251 with 18 home runs and 44 stolen bases, striking out fewer than 20% of the time. In a small sample size at Triple-A, he struck out north of 30% of the time, batting .236 with three home runs in 99 plate appearances.

Volpe’s swing-and-miss problems near the end of last year are worth monitoring in April, but if he proves early that he can make contact on a regular basis – he is absolutely worth an investment to win American League Rookie of the Year.

Outfield, Aaron Hicks

Since hitting 27 home runs in 2018, Aaron Hicks has 30 home runs across his subsequent 275 games played, spanning four seasons. In that span, he owns a .220 batting average and a .702 OPS. His defensive effort was so poor at certain points last year that he was benched entirely. He could be a DFA candidate if he gets off to another slow start in 2023.

Outfield, Harrison Bader

Harrison Bader will begin the season on the injured list due to a left oblique injury and will miss Opening Day, per amny.com. In 49 plate appearances following his arrival in New York last September, Bader posted a .217 batting average, .528 OPS, and a 30.6% strikeout rate. He did manage to hit five home runs in nine postseason games, offering hope that there is more in the tank for 2023 and beyond. At a minim, Bader will be an elite defender in center field when he returns, which will also allow Aaron Judge to move to a less physically demanding position in right field.

Outfield, Aaron Judge

How good was Aaron Judge in 2022? He hit 62 home runs, the most ever in a single season by a player not linked to performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs). He led all of baseball in WAR, OPS, runs scored, total bases, runs-batted-in (RBI), HardHit%, barrels, and average exit velocity. He was second in walk rate and third in xBA. His 207 wRC+ was 107% better than the league-average hitter. He also ranked in the 85th percentile in outs above average defensively, playing center field as his primary position for the first time in his career – one of the most important defensive positions on the diamond. Anyone who tries to argue that Judge didn’t deserve the American League MVP last year is mistaken.

However, it is highly unlikely that Judge repeats his historic campaign again in 2023, and it’s not likely that he comes particularly close to a lot of those prodigious numbers. Judge played in 157 games last season, which was a career-high and only the third time since debuting in 2016 that he played more than 112 games.

In the early 2000s, Baseball Prospectus documented a significant increase in production for players who were in walk years relative to their subsequent campaign after receiving a new contract. Using a sample of 212 players, they found that players “experience a cumulative performance spike in their walk years.

Judge’s shrewd approach at the plate will continue to make him one of the most impactful hitters in the league for this upcoming season and beyond, assuming he can stay healthy. There is absolutely nothing in his advanced metrics to suggest that he was unreasonably lucky in 2022 or that he is due for major regression in 2023. Simply, he had a historic 2022 season, so regression is inevitable, regardless of talent level. Factoring in the reduced incentive to get a new contract, Judge (and the organization) may be less willing to put him in the lineup when he has a nagging injury – knowing that he is owed significant dollars through 2032.

Expect Judge to hit 40 home runs and bat around .290. It would be shocking if he produces less than top-10 production at the plate, but it would be equally shocking to see him repeat as American League MVP.

Designated Hitter, Giancarlo Stanton

The good: Giancarlo Stanton hit 31 home runs in only 110 games played in 2022. He ranked in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity, 98th percentile in HardHit%, 86th percentile in xwOBA, 98th percentile in barrel rate, and 85th percentile in walk rate.

The bad: Stanton played in fewer than 70% of his team’s total games for the third time in the last four seasons. His 30.3% strikeout percentage ranked in the eighth percentile. Most notably, his in-the-zone contact percentage decreased from 79.7% in 2021 to 74.7% in 2022 – a usual warning sign of decline attributable to aging. Among players with at least 400 plate appearances last year, Stanton ranked 202nd out of 205 players on contact percentage on pitches in the strike zone.

Stanton is under contract through the 2029 campaign, but it is more than likely that his best days are far behind him. His floor is much lower than it should be for a player who is scheduled to make $32 million in 2023.

Utility, D.J. LeMahieu

On the surface, D.J. LeMahieu appeared to have regressed sharply in 2022. However, injuries down the stretch hurt his production significantly.

From April 8 to August 8, LeMahieu walked more times than he struck out, posting a .290 batting average, .827 OPS, and 30 extra-base hits. From August 9 to the end of the regular season, he batted .149 with a .355 OPS and zero extra-base hits in 103 plate appearances. His walk rate plummeted while his strikeout rate increased.

Assuming that LeMahieu is healthy to begin the new campaign, he is a safe bet to turn in high-level production from the New York leadoff spot. He does not have a guaranteed defensive position, but his ability to play first base, second base, and third base at a competent level give manager Aaron Boone plenty of ways to fit him into the lineup card on a daily basis.

Pitching Staff

Starting Pitcher:

Starting Pitcher, Gerrit Cole

Last season, Gerrit Cole finished ninth in the American League Cy Young voting, despite the fact that he posted his worst numbers since his final year with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2017. Simply, there is no pitcher with a higher floor in all of baseball than Cole entering 2023.

Cole possesses some of the most elite raw stuff of any pitcher in the league, finishing 2022 ranked in the 92nd percentile in strikeout percentage, 92nd percentile in Whiff%, and the 80th percentile in chase rate. He also maintained elite velocity and spin rates.

The biggest concern for Cole is his recent inability to avoid giving up back-breaking home runs. Out of 140 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings last season, Cole ranked 125th in barrel percentage, 98th in HardHit%, and 136th in home run/fly ball ratio.

He remains a true ace, with an upside as high as any pitcher in baseball. However, the long ball concerns make it smart to avoid a pre-season investment in him to win any individual accolades.

Starting Pitcher, Carlos Rodon

Carlos Rodon spent only one year with the analytics-savvy San Francisco Giants, but the experience helped him unlock another level on the mound. Across 178.0 innings, he posted a 2.88 ERA, 2.64 xERA, and a 2.25 FIP – his peripherals outperforming his surface-level numbers due to a poor defense behind him.

In San Francisco, Rodon elevated his fastball location and increased his curveball velocity. Opposing hitters posted a .038 batting average with zero extra-base hits against his curveball in 2022.

Unfortunately for New York, Rodon will begin the new campaign on the injured list due to a forearm muscle strain, per the New York Post. His timetable to return to the field is unknown, but he is throwing bullpen sessions as part of his rehab process, offering hope that he takes the mound at some point in late April or early May.

Starting Pitcher, Nestor Cortes

Nestor Cortes was used as a full-time starter for the first time in his career during the 2022 season. He excelled with a 2.44 ERA, 2.70 xERA, and a 3.13 FIP in 158.1 innings of work, which netted him a seventh-place finish in the American League Cy Young voting – a better finish than his $324 million teammate, Gerrit Cole.

Cortes’ fastball spin rate ranked in the 67th percentile, helping to induce weak contact at a higher rate than nearly every other starting pitcher in baseball. His velocity on his fastball and cutter increased over a full mph in 2022 from 2021, leading to much better results.

Cortes made his mark last year by getting ahead early in the count, which forced opposing hitters to swing at tough pitches with two strikes. Among 140 pitchers who threw at least 100 innnigs last year, Cortes ranked 13th in first-pitch strike percentage. If he can work ahead in the count at that frequency again in 2023, he has a safe floor as a middle-of-the-rotation piece for New York. There is the possibility that his ceiling is even higher than what we saw last summer if he can find a way to add any additional velocity.

Starting Pitcher, Clarke Schmidt

Last season, Clarke Schmidt pitched primarily out of the bullpen, posting a 3.12 ERA, 3.51 xERA, and a 3.60 FIP – each of which was the best mark of his young career. Injuries to Carlos Rodon and Frankie Montas have opened up a rotation spot for him to begin 2023 in the rotation.

In 2022, Schmidt was elite against right-handed batters, with a 2.91 FIP, 25.7% strikeout percentage, and a 1.02 WHIP. Nearly all of his troubles came against left-handed hitters, against which he had a 4.68 FIP, 20.8% strikeout percentage, and a 1.48 WHIP.

According to The Athletic, Schmidt has been working on a cutter during spring training, aiming to use it to solve his platoon issues. Pitching coach Matt Blake “believes (it) is a legitimate pitch and not the usual spring training storyline of a player working on something and they never use it in a game,” according to Chris Kirschner.

If Schmidt’s cutter is even somewhat effective, he has the potential to surprise a lot of people in an expanded role in 2023.

Starting Pitcher, Jhony Brito

Jhony Brito reportedly has the lead for New York’s final rotation spot heading into Opening Day after retiring all 16 batters he faced in his last spring training outing. Brito had a 3.31 ERA, 4.03 FIP, and a 1.17 WHIP in 70.2 innings at Triple-A in 2022. He does not offer elite swing and miss stuff, but his ability to get opposing batters to hit the ball into the ground gives him viability as a temporary starter for this team.

Bullpen:

Relief Pitcher, Clay Holmes

From April 9 to July 9 last year, Clay Holmes had a 0.23 ERA and a 1.74 FIP across 38.2 innings of work. During that stretch, he had a 28.0% strikeout percentage and a 4.2% walk rate. From July 12 to the end of the season, Holmes posted a 5.92 ERA, 4.59 FIP, 22.3% strikeout percentage, and a 12.5% walk rate. His WHIP went from 0.67 to 1.48.

Holmes managed to complete six scoreless innings during the postseason, but his command issues during the summer’s latter half are hard to ignore – especially considering his alarmingly-high walk rates during his tenure with the Pittsburgh Pirates from 2018 to 2020.

At his best, Holmes is elite. The problem is that the line between Holmes being elite and Holmes being unwatchable is very thin.

Relief Pitcher, Albert Abreu

Albert Abreu pitched for three teams in 2022, posting a 3.26 ERA, 4.40 xERA, 4.77 FIP, and a 1.47 WHIP. After coming over to the Yankees at the end of June, Abreu had a 3.16 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and a 1.21 WHIP, showing much better command in his return to the Bronx.

The upside is there, but a contending team would like to have a better option than Abreu in high-leverage situations, who owns a 4.46 ERA and a 5.52 in 76.2 innings during his career.

Relief Pitcher, Michael King

Michael King made a permanent move to the bullpen in 2022, leading to a career-best 2.29 ERA, 2.83 xERA, and 2.23 FIP. His season was cut short due to a fractured elbow, but he is firmly entrenched as a reliable option for Boone in this unit heading into 2023 nonetheless. Last year, King had three separate pitches with a 33.7% whiff rate or better.

Relief Pitcher, Ron Marinaccio

Ron Marinaccio’s rookie campaign got off to a rough start in April, surrendering five earned runs in four innings of work. When he returned to the mound in late May, he elevated his changeup usage from 26.8% to 40.7%, which made all the difference in the world. From May 22 to the end of the year, Marinaccio had a 1.13 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 31.3% strikeout percentage, and a 0.95 WHIP. The command is still a work in progress, but he has the potential to be an elite high-leverage reliever.

Relief Pitcher, Jonathan Loaisiga

In 2021, Jonathan Loaisiga delivered a 2.17 ERA, 2.18 xERA, and a 2.58 FIP, seemingly establishing himself as one of the league’s elite late-inning options for manager Aaron Boone. However, in his first 17.1 innings in 2022, Loaisiga posted an 8.31 ERA and a 5.02 FIP, appearing poorly suited for MLB work at all.

His early season numbers turned out to be a result of pitching through an injury. From July 17 to the end of the year, he had a 1.76 ERA and a 2.75 FIP, re-establishing himself as an elite option for this arm barn. Expect him to be dominant once again in 2023, assuming he can stay healthy.

New York Yankees – Futures Pick & Prediction

The New York Yankees may seem bereft of pitching heading into Opening Day, but a team could do worse than having two members in their starting rotation who finished in the top nine in voting for the American League Cy Young award in 2022. Carlos Rodon appears to be progressing well during his rehab process, giving New York three bonafide stars in their rotation. If Clarke Schmidt learns how to record outs against left-handed hitters, this rotation has the potential to become very deep very quickly.

In the bullpen, the Yankees are not elite, but they have quality arms that are capable of recording outs in high-leverage situations. New York has also done a phenomenal job developing relief pitches on the fly in recent seasons, giving this unit a high floor in 2023.

Offensively, the addition of Anthony Volpe is a tremendous boon to a lineup that featured little production outside of Aaron Judge in 2022. A healthy D.J. LeMahieu will be a welcome addition at the top of a batting order that was on pace for well over 100 wins prior to last summer’s All-Star break.

Overall, this is a roster replete with talent, and the front office has the resources to secure more talent at the trade deadline if needed. Take the over on New York’s win total in what should be a highly-competitive American League East division.

PICK: Over 93.5 wins (-104, FanDuel)

2023 New York Yankees DFS Pick’em

About the Author

nickgalaida
Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom