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2023 Philadelphia Phillies Preview: Futures Odds, Lineup, Rotation, Bullpen Projections

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2023-03-25 02:19:17

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Nick Galaida is here to break down the Philadelphia Phillies’ pitching rotation and lineup as he prepares you for the 2023 MLB season. Follow along for an in-depth preview, along with a look at current odds, projections, and picks. Get a head start on the baseball action with PrizePicks Promo Code GRINDERS for a $100 deposit bonus.

Following a 22-29 start to the 2022 campaign, the front office decided to part ways with Joe Girardi, making Rob Thomson the interim manager. After Thomson took over the team, the Philadelphia Phillies went 65-46 to earn a Wild Card berth before making a Cinderella run to the World Series, where they lost in six games to the Houston Astros. Thomson earned multiple first-place votes for National League Manager of the Year for his efforts.

Ahead of Opening Day in 2023, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has added even more talent to this roster, with the acquisitions of Trea Turner, Craig Kimbrel, Taijuan Walker, Matt Strahm, and Gregory Soto. Bryce Harper will miss the beginning of the year as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, and Rhys Hoskins tore his ACL during Spring Training, but there is still plenty of talent left on the field in their absence.

Below, we take a look at the roster position-by-position, and provide insight into the futures market!

Starting Lineup

Catcher, J.T. Realmuto

In 2022, J.T. Realmuto posted a .240 batting average, .666 OPS, and hit only three home runs from Opening Day to June 22, but still managed to finish seventh in the National League MVP voting thanks to a scorching-hot second half of the season, in which he batted .305 with a .944 OPS and 19 home runs. The net result was the seventh-best season by a catcher in his 30s in the history of Major League Baseball in 2022, measured by fWAR, according to Matthew Gelb.

On top of his strong season at the plate, Realmuto boasted the league’s best pop time for the fifth consecutive year. The last time he didn’t finish number one in that metric, he finished second in 2017, only 0.01 seconds behind Austin Hedges. Since Realmuto’s rookie season in 2015, he has never finished lower than third in average pop time, among catchers with at least 12 attempts.

Heading into his age-32 season, Realmuto has displayed no signs of regression offensively and even improved his zone contact rates from 2021 to 2022. There is little debate as to who is the most valuable catcher in all of baseball. It will be difficult for him to win the league’s overall MVP award, due to the fact that he will never play 150 regular season games as a starting catcher, but he remains an elite option in season-long fantasy and DFS.

First Base, Darick Hall

Earlier this week, Rhys Hoskins suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament, per The Athletic. Though Hoskins was far from an MVP candidate at first base, he had never posted lower than a 10.7% walk rate or hit fewer than 27 home runs in a full season – not exactly easy numbers to replace in his absence. Since his debut in 2017, Hoskins ranks 12th in all of baseball in home runs and third among first basemen.

Following the news of his injury, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski commented that Darick Hall would receive the “majority of playing time” at first base, though it remains to be seen how often he will be deployed against southpaws.

Hall hit 28 home runs in 101 games played at AAA in 2022 while displaying relatively good plate discipline skills. However, he posted a ghastly 31.0% strikeout percentage and an unpalatable 3.5% walk rate in 42 games at the big league level after being promoted. He had only one hit in 12 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. Last year in the minor leagues, Hall had a .980 OPS against lefties, but only a .591 OPS against righties.

Simply, Hall is best served as a platoon option against right-handed pitching. Philadelphia will need to figure out who will be in the lineup card when the team faces a southpaw.

Second Base, Bryson Stott

A former 14th overall draft selection in 2019, Bryson Stott made his MLB debut in 2022, showcasing impressive pitch recognition and plate discipline skills for such a young player. In 466 plate appearances, he ranked in the 89th percentile in Whiff%, 59th percentile in chase rate, and 63rd percentile in K%.

Among 205 hitters with at least 400 plate appearances, he ranked 46th in Z-Contact% and 10th in O-Contact%, making it extremely difficult for opposing pitchers to get him to swing and miss at anything.

The addition of Trea Turner will allow Stott to move to second base defensively this year, which is a position he is better equipped to handle. He is unlikely to ever find much power in his bat, but strong defense, elite speed, and extraordinary contact skills give him a high floor heading into 2023 and beyond. It would not be shocking to see him in the All-Star conversation at second base as a sophomore.

Third Base, Alec Bohm

In 2022, Alec Bohm continued to be unimpressive against fastballs, ranking 153rd out of 229 qualified hitters in slugging percentage, according to Matt Gelb of The Athletic. However, it was a major improvement over his .264 slugging percentage against fastballs in 2021, which ranked dead last out of 224 qualified hitters. Still only 26 years old, Bohm showed signs of improvement last summer, making more contact and hitting the ball air more often.

On the negative side – he continued to chase pitches outside of the strike zone too often, ranking in the 33rd percentile in chase rate and 143rd in O-Swing% out of 205 hitters with at least 400 plate appearances in 2022. Though he hit more balls in the air, he still hit seven percent more ground balls than the league-average hitter, wasting much of his hard contact. He finished the year ranked in the fourth percentile in outs above average, indicating that his defensive contributions were still far from desirable.

Bohm is a former no. three overall draft pick, so there is optimism that he can continue to ascend – but Philadelphia, in win-now mode with an extremely aggressive general manager, will only wait so long on Bohm’s development before exploring an upgrade via free agency or trade.

Shortstop, Trea Turner

This past winter, Trea Turner signed an 11-year, $300 million contract with the Phillies after spending last season with the Los Angeles Dodgers. According to manager Rob Thomson, Turner will bat leadoff on Opening Day and will remain there, at least until Bryce Harper returns from the injured list.

Turner has excelled with the bat from each of the top-three spots in the order throughout his career, but he has been far more aggressive with his legs when hitting leadoff. In 472 career games batting first, he is averaging 0.33 stolen bases per game, compared to 0.20 stolen bases per game batting second, and 0.23 stolen bases per game batting third. Turner’s sprint speed ranked fifth out of 582 players in 2022. He has a league-leading 149 stolen bases across the last five seasons.

In 2022, the Phillies had the fifth-most stolen bases in all of baseball. Expect Turner to frequently have the green light on the basepaths with his new team. He could be in for a historic season if he stays healthy, especially with the bigger bases reducing the distance from first to second base by 4.5”.

Outfield, Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber tied his career-high with 155 games played in 2022, hitting a career-high 46 home runs and driving in a career-high 100 runs in the process. He ranked in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity, 99th percentile in HardHit%, 99th percentile in barrel%, and 93rd percentile in BB%. Only Aaron Judge and Mike Trout had more home runs per plate appearance last summer than Schwarber.

Batting in the leadoff position 123 times for the Phillies last season, Schwarber saw the most first-pitch strikes of his career. Though most of his zone-contact rates remained stable from 2021, the opportunity to see more fastballs early in the count led to previously unreached numbers for the veteran left-handed hitter.

Manager Rob Thomson has indicated that Trea Turner will bat atop the lineup to begin the year, but there are strong arguments to be made that Schwarber should return to that position sooner rather than later if his production falls off in the early portion of 2023.

Outfield, Brandon Marsh

Brandon Marsh will be Philadelphia’s everyday center fielder in 2023. The largest concern for Marsh in this role is how he will fare against left-handed pitching. In 105 plate appearances against southpaws in 2022, Marsh posted a .188 batting average and had only three extra-base hits. He struck out a problematic 41.9% of the time.

As a result, he finished the year ranked in the first percentile in K% and was worse than the league average across the board in HardHit%, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel%, BB%, Whiff%, and chase rate.

His main appeal for the Phillies is his 94th percentile defense in center field, with tremendous speed and a high baseball IQ at one of the most important positions on the diamond. If Marsh can make even marginal improvements in his contact rates, he could collect enough plate appearances to be a qualified hitter for the first time in his career.

Outfield, Nick Castellanos

Per Todd Zolecki, Nick Castellanos said that last season, “baseball wasn’t fun.” In his first year of a five-year, $100 million contract, Castellanos struggled with his consistency at the plate, resulting in his worst season since 2015, excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign.

He posted a career-worst .694 OPS, but there were signs of life late in the season – batting .318 with an .833 OPS from July 25 to September 2, prior to landing on the injured list with a strained right oblique and turf toe. Still, he ranked 200th out of 216 hitters in average exit velocity from August 1st until the end of the postseason, per Matt Gelb. His continued struggles against offspeed offerings as the league continues to throw more of them is a concern. In 2022, pitchers threw breaking balls to Castellanos 41.7% of the time, against which Castellanos had a .255 batting average and a 38.9% Whiff%.

Heading into 2023, Castellanos said that he is “much more prepared this year” and that “last year was last year.” Philadelphia is certainly hoping that they do not have to endure another poor season at the plate from Castellanos, but his struggles against non-fastballs, coupled with declining power metrics and poor plate discipline make him far from a guarantee to bounce back.
Outfield, Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper further solidified his reputation as one of the toughest players in baseball last year, rushing back from a broken thumb and playing through a torn UCL. However, he hit only .227 in 151 plate appearances after returning from the injured list in late August. There will be a temptation to rush him back in 2023 after losing Hoskins for the season, but there are also more than a few reasons to be cautious with a man who is under contract through 2031 as one of the highest-paid players in the league.

When healthy, there are few players more impactful with the bat in their hands. In his first three seasons with the Phillies, Harper had a .958 OPS, averaging 35 home runs and 97 runs batted in per 150 games played. His absence from the lineup will be felt during the first half of 2023.

Bettors have no reason to invest in Harper to win the National League MVP award this season, considering the likelihood that he does not even collect enough plate appearances to be a qualified hitter this summer.

Utility, Edmundo Sosa

Edmundo Sosa is not a name that casual baseball fans are likely to know, but he is far from an afterthought in the Phillies’ organization. The organization likes him a lot and it’s not hard to see why. Following a midseason trade to Philadelphia last year, Sosa batted .315 with a .937 OPS across 59 plate appearances.

Defensively, he finished 2022 ranked in the 97th percentile in outs above average. He has elite speed and athleticism, which makes him an asset at multiple positions with his glove, in addition to making him a weapon on the basepaths.

Though it would be surprising to see Sosa sustain his elite offensive numbers from the final two months of 2022, his floor remains exceptionally high as a utility man for a team that will need a lot of extra innings in the field and a lot of extra at-bats from non-regulars while Harper continues his rehab in April and May. Sosa could also see playing time in the infield with Hoskins being ruled out for the season.

Pitching Staff

Starting Pitcher, Aaron Nola

Across the last six years, no pitcher has thrown more innings in the National League than Aaron Nola. Following an extremely unlucky 2021 campaign in which he had an ERA (4.63) over a full run higher than his xERA (3.35) and FIP (3.37), many people seemingly forgot how much talent the veteran has in his right arm. In 2022, Nola became the first pitcher in 138 years to have more than 230 strikeouts and fewer than 30 walks in the same season, per Matt Gelb. Even still, his 3.25 ERA was over a half run higher than his 2.74 xERA and 2.58 FIP – suggesting that he has the potential to be even better in 2023.

After adding a significant amount of spin to his fastball and curveball from 2021 to 2022, Nola enters his walk year poised to make one final statement before demanding a hefty contract this winter. He has both the durability and skill to contend for the National League Cy Young award this summer. The addition of Trea Turner at shortstop improves the defense behind him as well. He is worth a preseason sprinkle on the futures market.

Starting Pitcher, Zack Wheeler

Zack Wheeler is everything that an organization could ask for from one of their front-end starters. In 2022, he ranked in the 83rd percentile in BB%, 74th percentile in K%, 94th percentile in average exit velocity, 76th percentile in HardHit%, and tossed 153.0 innings.

He has upper-tier velocity, which he combines with upper-tier spin rates and a deep pitch mix to keep both right- and left-handed hitters guessing at the plate. Last season, he had a 2.68 FIP and a 1.03 WHIP against righties, and a 3.11 FIP and a 1.05 WHIP against lefties – making it impossible for opposing teams to stack their lineup in an advantageous way against Wheeler.

Since joining the Phillies in 2020, Wheeler owns a 2.82 ERA and a 2.80 FIP in 69 starts. There is little reason to expect anything different from him in 2023. Durability concerns are enough to warrant staying off of his futures tickets during Spring Training, but he is more than talented enough to win this award. He could be worth a buy-in in June or July if he is on track for close to 175 innings.

Starting Pitcher, Ranger Suarez

There were 409 pitchers who threw at least 40 innings in 2022, but only 29 of them induced a higher ground ball rate than Ranger Suarez. Only five hurlers who threw at least 100 innings allowed less hard contact than Suarez. The result was a 3.65 ERA, 3.78 xERA, and a 3.87 FIP, despite the fact that he lacks elite swing-and-miss offerings.

There is no reason to invest in Suarez to win any hardware in 2023, but the Phillies have found themselves one of the more reliable mid-rotation starters in baseball as long as he can continue inducing weak contact on a regular basis.

If bettors need any additional reasons to stay away from Suarez on the futures market, he returned from the World Baseball Classic with elbow inflammation, which will force him to miss his first turn through the rotation this April. Per Matt Gelb, it is possible that Suarez misses multiple turns through the rotation, though the organization does not anticipate this injury keeping him sidelined for much longer than that.

Starting Pitcher, Taijuan Walker

Taijuan Walker’s fastball usage has decreased each of the last three seasons. In 2022, he threw his fastball 29.5% of the time, compared to 66.7% of the time in 2019. Still, Philadelphia signed him to a four-year, $72 million contract this past winter, a sign that they believe in Walker’s ability to deliver productive results with a heavier emphasis on his other offerings.

Though Walker finished last season with strong overall numbers – 3.49 ERA, 3.94 xERA, 3.65 FIP – it was the second consecutive season in which he performed much better prior to the All-Star break, before regressing sharply in the latter months of the campaign. In 2021, Walker had a 2.66 ERA and a 3.06 FIP across his first 16 starts, compared to a 7.13 ERA and a 6.79 FIP across his last 13 starts. In 2022, Walker had a 2.55 ERA and a 2.97 FIP during the first half of the campaign but struggled to a 4.80 ERA and a 4.59 FIP across his final 13 turns through the rotation. In both seasons, his spin rates decreased drastically during the closing months of the year, showing signs of fatigue.

Teams could do worse than Walker as the fourth man in their rotation, but there are obvious red flags committing this much money to a player who has failed to sustain success for a full season since 2017.

Starting Pitcher, Bailey Falter

The entire Philadelphia fan base would have preferred that Andrew Painter break camp in the big league rotation, but a UCL sprain ended those hopes. Even if Painter was healthy, Bailey Falter, viewed as a “legitimate back-of-the-rotation pitcher” by some people within the organization, was likely to secure the final starter spot for Philadelphia to begin 2023.

Late in the year, Falter increased the usage of his fastball and curveball against right-handed batters, while simultaneously reducing the usage of his sinker and slider, which led to a strong end to the regular season. Falter does not have top-of-the-rotation potential, but he posted a 3.00 ERA and a 3.66 FIP across his final 51.0 innings in 2022 – proving that he is more than capable of keeping his team in the game on a consistent basis as a backend starter.

Bullpen:

Relief Pitcher, Seranthony Dominguez

Ahead of Spring Training, Seranthony Dominguez and the front office agreed to a two-year contract extension. After missing nearly all of 2021, Dominguez returned in 2022 to deliver 51 innings as an integral member of the Philadelphia relief corps on their run to the World Series. His new contract buys out his arbitration years, and a club option for 2025 gives the organization the ability to delay him reaching free agency for one more season.

Dominguez, when healthy, is one of the league’s premier late-inning arms. Manager Rob Thomson will not have a set closer to begin 2023, similar to 2022, but the team’s commitment to Dominguez financially says a lot about their confidence in him for this year and beyond.

Relief Pitcher, Jose Alvarado

In February, the Phillies signed Jose Alvarado to a three-year contract extension, which will take him through the 2025 season and includes a club option for 2026. After being demoted to Triple-A last May, Alvarado returned to the big leagues in June, striking out 43% of the batters he faced during the remainder of the regular season, posting a 1.66 ERA and a 1.19 FIP in the process. According to Matt Gelb, Alvarado “made mental adjustments that allowed him to relax and throw more strikes.”

The primary tangible change he made was ditching his four-seam fastball and curveball in favor of increased cutter usage, which held opposing hitters to a .119 batting average and permitted only three extra-base hits in 87 plate appearances. This is a change that is likely to be sustainable, making him a strong bet to be a reliable late-inning option for the Phillies in 2023.

Relief Pitcher, Gregory Soto

After acquiring Gregory Soto from the Detroit Tigers, the Phillies now have the two hardest-throwing left-handed relievers in baseball. However, they are not equally talented.

Soto has a number of red flags in his profile, following a significant drop-off in his strikeout rate and movement on his slider in 2022. He ranked in the second percentile in walk rate and allowed more hard contact than almost any pitcher in baseball. After back-to-back seasons outperforming his peripherals, regression could finally be in store for 2023.

Relief Pitcher, Craig Kimbrel

“I liked what the Phillies had to offer,” Craig Kimbrel mentioned to the media earlier this year. According to Matt Gelb, Kimbrel appreciated the fact that the Phillies understand that the game of baseball is played between the lines and that they communicated with him in a way that combined this fact with biomechanics and analytics in their free-agent pitch to him.

President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski thinks that Philadelphia will be able to help Kimbrel make adjustments to regain his effectiveness after an extremely poor 2022 campaign. It is also possible that a more modern manager will be able to more appropriately use Kimbrel in late-inning situations, using him primarily against right-handed batters, who had an OPS 202 points lower against him than left-handed batters last year.

Kimbrel’s velocity still ranked in the 83rd percentile last year, but it was down nearly three miles per hour from his peak in 2017. He is far from a guarantee to regain his prior form, but he offers tremendous upside with a reasonably high floor for Philadelphia in 2023.

Relief Pitcher, Andrew Bellatti

Andrew Bellatti did not pitch in an MLB game from 2016 to 2020. He threw 3.1 innings in 2021, delivering a 13.50 ERA in the small sample size. Last year, he made his slider his primary offering, throwing the pitch over 50% of the time. The change in pitch mix resulted in a 3.31 ERA, 3.64 xERA, and a 2.87 FIP across 54.1 innings of work.

According to Matt Gelb of The Athletic, Bellatti had a .580 OPS against in low-leverage situations last year. Expect him to settle into a similar role in 2023, letting Dominguez, Alvarado, Soto, and Kimbrel work in higher-pressure scenarios.

Relief Pitcher, Matt Strahm

Matt Strahm signed a two-year, $15 million contract with the Phillies this past off-season, a price tag that usually means a high-leverage role. However, after the signing of Kimbrel and the trade for Soto, Philadelphia will likely use Strahm more in middle relief – a sign of just how much talent manager Rob Thomson has in his arm barn. Strahm could also see long reliever work in April while Ranger Suarez is on the injured list.

In 2019, Strahm’s fastball averaged 91.4 miles per hour. Opposing hitters batted .294 with a .621 slugging percentage and 13 home runs against the offering in 167 plate appearances. Last year, Strahm’s fastball averaged 94.2 miles per hour. Opposing batters posted a .145 batting average and a .291 slugging percentage against the pitch, hitting only two home runs in 61 plate appearances.

Strahm’s newfound velocity, in conjunction with a strong slider and curveball, gives him a high floor with significant upside heading into the new season.

Relief Pitcher, Connor Brogdon

Connor Brogdon finished 2022 on a high note, striking out 13 of the final 28 batters he faced without a walk. According to Baseball Prospectus, Brogdon made a slight mechanical adjustment, which enabled him to unlock a little bit of extra velocity on his fastball during the postseason. In April, he averaged 94.0 miles per hour on his fastball but was routinely touching 96-plus on his heater in September and October.

Similar to Bellatti, Brogdon is likely to be asked to serve primarily in middle relief in 2023, a role in which he should be able to thrive.

Philadelphia Phillies – Futures Pick & Prediction

First and foremost, the Phillies have one of the most intelligent managers in the league. Since the early 2000s, it has been a well-documented fact that bullpens are managed improperly by the vast majority of managers, who use a designated closer in the ninth inning, without any regard for whether or not that is the highest-leverage point in the ballgame. Heading into 2023, Rob Thomson will once again be going without a traditional closer, instead opting to use Seranthony Dominguez, Jose Alvarado, Craig Kimbrel, and Gregory Soto as matchups and leverage warrants.

Missing Bryce Harper until (likely) July is nothing to gloss over, and the loss of Rhys Hoskins is notable. However, the addition of Trea Turner and the potential re-emergence of Nick Castellanos as a capable bat could be more than enough to keep this offense afloat until their MVP-candidate returns from Tommy John surgery.

The starting rotation is headlined by two Cy Young candidates, and they have high-quality depth with Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, Bailey Falter, and Andrew Painter (if healthy) – each of whom is likely to eat a significant chunk of innings in 2023. It is not going to be easy, but 90 wins are very realistic for this group, with their poor defense in the outfield and likely struggles against left-handed pitching being the main risk factor.

PICK: Over 87.5 wins (+100, Caesars)

2023 Philadelphia Phillies DFS Pick’em

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About the Author

nickgalaida
Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom