MLB Daily Grind Down May 3rd Part 2
Seattle at Toronto
| Seattle | Toronto | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogers Centre | 7:07 PM | ||||||
| Felix Hernandez – (3-2), 1.9 ERA, 9.38 K/9, 0.96 WHIP | Ricky Romero – | ||||||
| PvB | (39-149 H/AB) 0.262 BA-A, 0.25 K%, 0.711 OPS-A | PvB | (33-144 H/AB) 0.229 BA-A, 0.28 K%, 0.667 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (2-1), 1.8 ERA, 1 HRA, 9 K/9, 0.9 WHIP | HOME | NO DATA | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
SEA BvP  | SEA vs L | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7.5
- Favored SEA -127
Pitchers
- Home Ricky Romero has had decent MLB career but do you really want to gamble off a guy coming off of an injury against one of the best pitchers in baseball? It is not impossible for him to pitch well tonight but the risk is too great and he will probably be limited to around 80 pitches, which means if he does not get you the win then he is not a good play. If he is super cheap, he may be worth a gamble on a multiple pitcher site but I think it is best to look away from him today. Avoid
- Away Felix Hernandez is a dominate pitcher. Last year he ran into some troubles on the road, though. He catches a TOR team that is batting .229 at home, .227 vs. right-handers, and .239 over the last 7 days with 10 HRs. They have 236 ks on the season and News Flash King Felix gets a lot of Ks. Target
Batters
- Home If you want to play the fade then I would either use Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion because they have been swinging for power lately and could connect for a nice 3 run shot. No one starting has a BAA higher than .300 versus Hernandez so do not expect too much.
- Away Kendrys Morales went hot when he went on the road last time and he faces a nice lefty today who he has a .375 BAA against. Franklin Guiterrez is also 5-14 vs. Romero with 1 HR. Jesus Montero hits lefties very well and could produce big tonight in the hitter’s park. I love all of SEA tonight for value since there is the strong chance that Romero gets shelled.
NY Mets at Atlanta
| NY Mets | Atlanta | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turner Field | 7:30 PM | ||||||
| Shaun Marcum – (0-2), 7.94 ERA, 6.92 K/9, 2.12 WHIP | Mike Minor – (3-2), 3.13 ERA, 7.79 K/9, 0.98 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (23-95 H/AB) 0.242 BA-A, 0.33 K%, 0.611 OPS-A | PvB | (18-64 H/AB) 0.281 BA-A, 0.28 K%, 0.828 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | NO DATA | HOME | (1-1), 1.35 ERA, 1 HRA, 8.1 K/9, 0.75 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| NYM BvP | NYM vs L | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7
- Favored ATL -180
Pitchers
- Home Mike Minor finally got hit hard in his last start but it was in DET. If you take that start out of the equation then he has been producing at an elite level. He holds a 1.35 ERA at home so far this year with a K/9 ratio in the 8s. He takes the hill today against a NYM team batting .263 on the road, .239 vs left-handers, and .192 over the last 7 days. In Play
- Away Shaun Marcum has been horrible in his first 2 starts coming back. I am not sure that he will throw past 80 pitches even if he does throw well. The Braves have been struggling lately. They are batting .229 at home, .239 vs. right-handers, and .201 over the last 7 days but a matchup against a struggling pitcher might get their bats going again. Avoid
Batters
- Home Justin Upton production has dropped over the last 7 days to 13 fp. He is still the most productive Brave over that time period. Marcum has struggled so bad that you have to think all of the bats are in play. B.J. Upton has nice BvPs today. Jordan Schafer also has good numbers and has been starting for them. Freddie Freeman gains the splits in his favor today and is picking it up.
- Away If you are looking for a couple of value plays then Ruben Tejada and Marlon Byrd have good BvPs vs. Minor. John Buck and David Wright are a combined 2-19 with 9 Ks versus Minor so do not be tempted to bite on the righty/lefty matchup.
Boston at Texas
| Boston | Texas | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers Ballpark | 8:05 PM | ||||||
| Felix Doubront – (3-0), 4.24 ERA, 11.3 K/9, 1.41 WHIP | Derek Holland – (1-2), 3.38 ERA, 7.37 K/9, 0.95 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (10-29 H/AB) 0.345 BA-A, 0.24 K%, 0.966 OPS-A | PvB | (16-58 H/AB) 0.276 BA-A, 0.14 K%, 0.948 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-0), 4.5 ERA, 1 HRA, 11.7 K/9, 1.7 WHIP | HOME | (0-1), 2.4 ERA, 1 HRA, 5.4 K/9, 1 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| BOS BvP | BOS vs L | TEX BvP | TEX vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 9
- Favored TEX -125
Pitchers
- Home Derek Holland takes the mound in a game with a high OU versus a BOS team batting .287 on the road, .237 vs. left-handers, and .328 over the last 7 days. He has pitched well to start the season but BOS has some pretty nice numbers against him and his Ks are a little on the low side for this one. Avoid
- Away Felix Doubront has high K/9 upside which makes him always worth taking in a GPP. Some days are bigger gambles then others and this happens to be one of those days that is a big gamble. TEX has a .345 BAA as a team versus him and he is slated to get the loss in a game with one of the higher OUs of the day Avoid
Batters
- Home With a lefty on the mound, 3 names should come to mind with the Rangers, Nelson Cruz, Adrian Beltre and Ian Kinsler. All three have positive BvPs versus Felix. Keep in mind the value plays of Baker and Gentrythat have been starting versus southpaws.
- Away Mike Napoli has been red hot and draws a lefty in a hitter’s park today. The BvPs are not there for Duston Pedrioa but I like him against a lefty in a game that has a high OU and do not forget the power bat of Gomes who should start today.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City
| Chicago White Sox | Kansas City | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kauffman Stadium | 8:10 PM | ||||||
| Dylan Axelrod – (0-1), 3.95 ERA, 5.31 K/9, 1.24 WHIP | Jeremy Guthrie – (3-0), 3.06 ERA, 6.73 K/9, 1.27 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (0-0 H/AB) 0 BA-A, 0 K%, 0 OPS-A | PvB | (18-54 H/AB) 0.333 BA-A, 0.11 K%, 0.926 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-1), 7.45 ERA, 2 HRA, 5.6 K/9, 1.966 WHIP | HOME | (1-0), 5.4 ERA, 3 HRA, 2.7 K/9, 1.05 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| CHW BvP | CHW vs R | KCR BvP | KCR vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7.5
- Favored KAN -142
Pitchers
- Home Jeremy Guthrie is showing that much of his struggles last year were simply the effects of a Rockies Mountains high. He takes the hill as the favorite today versus a CHW team whose bats awoken in Arlington. They are batting .245 on the road, .230 versus right-handers, and .241 over the last 7 days with 11 HRs. Guthrie has held the current CHW as a team to a .200 BAA and has pitched well at home on the year. In Play
- Away Dylan Axelrod does not get enough Ks to be consider as anything more than a matchup play. A KAN team batting .278 at home, .260 vs. right-handers and .294 over the last 7 days is not the matchup you want. Avoid
Batters
- Home Axelrod always pitches well enough to keep it interesting so do not over do it with KAN but the left-handed bats make a good play today. I love a hot Mike Moustakas and Alex Gordon remains a strong play
- Away Alejandro De Aza and Alex Rios have nice BvPs versus Guthrie. De Aza has been hot. Adam Dunn has been hot also and draws the righty/lefty matchup but sports a .105 BAA with 10 Ks in 19 AB. Paul Konerko has 3 HR in 38 AB versus Guthrie as well but only a .237 BAA vs. him.
Detroit at Houston
| Detroit | Houston | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minute Maid Park | 8:10 PM | ||||||
| Doug Fister – (4-0), 2.38 ERA, 6.62 K/9, 1.03 WHIP | Bud Norris – (3-3), 4.2 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 1.63 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (2-11 H/AB) 0.182 BA-A, 0.27 K%, 0.636 OPS-A | PvB | (7-28 H/AB) 0.25 BA-A, 0.21 K%, 0.679 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-0), 1.29 ERA, 0 HRA, 6.4 K/9, 0.857 WHIP | HOME | (2-1), 2.76 ERA, 2 HRA, 6.1 K/9, 1.531 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| DET BvP | DET vs R | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8
- Favored DET -180
Pitchers
- Home You remember that game in OAK a few starts back where Bud Norris did not even make it an inning. If you consider playing him today because of his 2.76 home ERA then think about that game and remember that DET has 4 starters currently batting over .300 and Norris gives away too many bases. Avoid
- Away Doug Fister is the lock of the night. He takes the hill is a huge favorite against a HOU team leading the league in Ks. His K totals are a little on the low side but that number will get a big boost today. When a great pitcher faces HOU the only thing you really have to worry about is overlay. *Target
Batters
- Home HOU is a scrappy team so they could produce a few runs. Outside of Altuve there is not a player who is producing consistent enough for me to recommend. Chris Carter is 2-5 versus Fister if you think he can get ahold of one.
- Away Prince fielder has the only se of BvPs versus Norris and they are good so use him today. DET offense has stalled a little recently but they are always capable of an explosion. Anyone of them could be a good play on any given night.