MLB Daily Grind Down: Tuesday, September 3rd Part 3
LA Dodgers vs. Colorado
| 8:40 PM | LA Dodgers – ROAD | Colorado – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.266 | 0.723 | 18.40% | 0.56 | 0.264 | 0.735 | 19.80% | 0.60 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.271 | 0.728 | 18.00% | 0.44 | 0.266 | 0.749 | 19.90% | 0.48 | |
| SP STATS | Nolasco – RHP | Chacin – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.17 | 3.26 | 7.33 | 10.54 | 1.19 | 3.08 | 5.80 | 10.47 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 0.38 | 0.00 | 9.56 | 20.50 | 0.79 | 1.29 | 9.00 | 17.00 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
LAD vs R  | LAD BvP | COL vs R | COL BvP | ||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Ricky Nolasco – 8 IP with 11 K’s in his last start and he has everyone excited. But I just watched the best pitcher in baseball get eaten up in Coors and see no reason why Nolasco can’t get devoured as well. He’s in play, but with extreme caution. Starter Rating: 6 out of 10
- Jhoulys Chacin – He’s coming off back to back dominant performances but they were against the Giants and Marlins. The Dodgers are actually good offensively and he has a 5.12 ERA in 3 starts against them this year. Starter Rating: 4 out of 10
Batter Grind Down
- The game is in Coors and the line is set to 9 runs, which seems lower than what I might expect.
- Chacin has allowed just 7 HR on the season despite pitching half his games in the best hitters park in the country.
- Adrian Gonzalez is 6-10 and Andre Ethier is 9-24 for the Dodgers against Chacin.
- Nolasco has struggled at times with lefties and Helton/Dickerson are both hot. Both have risen sharply in price though.
- Hanley Ramirez was the only starter in Monday’s game between these two teams NOT to record a hit.
Toronto vs. Arizona
| 9:40 PM | Toronto – ROAD | Arizona – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.252 | 0.733 | 18.00% | 0.62 | 0.259 | 0.717 | 18.30% | 0.56 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.244 | 0.685 | 18.10% | 0.42 | 0.257 | 0.716 | 18.90% | 0.45 | |
| SP STATS | Redmond – RHP | Miley – LHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.27 | 4.30 | 9.85 | 7.68 | 1.30 | 3.55 | 6.60 | 9.71 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 2.00 | 9.00 | 13.00 | 8.50 | 1.15 | 3.46 | 4.85 | 7.50 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| TOR vs L | TOR BvP | ARI vs R | ARI BvP | ||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Todd Redmond – Redmond was supposed to start Monday but gave way to Esmil Rogers who surprisingly well. Redmond is an MLB journeyman who can give you a few FP every once in awhile but is far from trustworthy. Starter Rating: 3 out of 10
- Wade Miley – Miley has been extremely difficult to predict this season and is facing a Toronto team that has been equally difficult to predict. So I’ll defer to Vegas who has this game at an 8.5 O/U with Miley being a -160 favorite. So basically they think he’ll get touched up a bit but get the W. Starter Rating: 6 out of 10
Batter Grind Down
- Righties are hitting for an .890 OPS against Redmond, making Goldschmidt and Hill guys worth paying up for at home tonight.
- Miley has also struggled versus right handed bats, allowing 16 HR and a .736 OPS against. Edwin Encarnacion, J.P. Arencibia and Jose Reyes all have a good chance to go deep in a hitters ballpark.
- Martin Prado is also a great option for the Dbacks. He has 20 hits in his last 52 ABs and 16 RBI.
Tampa Bay vs. LA Angels
| 10:05 PM | Tampa Bay – ROAD | LA Angels – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.262 | 0.748 | 18.70% | 0.62 | 0.263 | 0.743 | 18.90% | 0.61 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.280 | 0.764 | 18.80% | 0.49 | 0.243 | 0.714 | 19.20% | 0.47 | |
| SP STATS | Moore – LHP | Vargas – LHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.23 | 3.41 | 8.55 | 11.72 | 1.38 | 3.54 | 6.31 | 10.06 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.07 | 0.68 | 8.24 | 16.05 | |||||
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| TBR vs L | TBR BvP | LAA vs L | LAA BvP | ||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Matt Moore – His 4 IP, 4 ER and 8 Hits-Allowed rehab start last week certainly doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence and I can’t imagine he pitches past the 5th inning in this being his first start in a couple months. Avoid him for tonight and wait to see how healthy he is. Starter Rating: 3 out of 10
- Jason Vargas – Vargas was dominant through 7 innings in his last start, which was against these Rays. Before that he tossed another good outing against the Mariners. The Rays came into Monday night having scored just 15 runs in the last 7 games and only 5 runs over their 4 prior games. They seem to be ice cold the line is at a low 7.5 right now. If he were only a favorite, I’d be all about this pick. Starter Rating: 8 out of 10
Batter Grind Down
- I’m not sure what to target for LAA, since I only expect Moore to go 4-5 innings before the weak Tampa Bay bullpen coming in.
- Vargas has reverse splits, allowing lefties to hit .328 and righties to hit just .239 on the season. Look for Joe Maddon to know that coming in and get his lefties in.
- James Loney hits lefties extremely well and could be a great left handed option from the Rays lineup.
Texas vs. Oakland
| 10:07 PM | Texas – ROAD | Oakland – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.262 | 0.740 | 16.80% | 0.62 | 0.244 | 0.718 | 19.40% | 0.59 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.260 | 0.737 | 16.70% | 0.47 | 0.245 | 0.735 | 20.00% | 0.49 | |
| SP STATS | Perez – LHP | Colon – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.30 | 3.58 | 5.93 | 10.21 | 1.19 | 2.94 | 4.75 | 9.88 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.31 | 4.15 | 4.15 | 10.50 | 1.40 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 5.00 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| TEX vs R | TEX BvP | OAK vs L | OAK BvP | ||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Martin Perez – His ERA is 4.39 on the road this season compared to about 2.5 at home and the A’s have been hot of late. His strikeout totals are down over his last two starts as well, having K’d just 3 batters in each. Starter Rating: 4 out of 10
- Bartolo Colon – Bartolo was decent in his last start against the Tigers but had just 1 strikeout. The Tigers are obviously one of the league’s better offenses but then again, so are his opponent on Tuesday. In two starts against the Rangers this year he has just 3 strikeouts in 13 IP while giving up 5 ER. This one looks like it may be high scoring. Starter Rating: 5 out of 10
Batter Grind Down
- Brandon Moss is the hottest hitter in baseball and might be worth paying for tonight if he’s in the lineup. Perez, like Vargas, has reverse splits. Lefties are hitting .300 against him righties are just at .240.
- Cespedes has a couple of extra base hits in 6 at bats against Perez.
- Adrian Beltre is 19 for 63 with 5 HR off Colon lifetime. Rios is 9-26 and David Murphy is 5-14 with a HR.
- I see this divisional battle being a bit of a shootout, so definitely look for value in either lineup.
San Francisco vs. San Diego
| 10:10 PM | San Francisco – ROAD | San Diego – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.259 | 0.692 | 16.90% | 0.51 | 0.247 | 0.693 | 20.90% | 0.54 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.255 | 0.670 | 17.20% | 0.36 | 0.254 | 0.734 | 21.30% | 0.47 | |
| SP STATS | Bumgarner – LHP | Erlin – LHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.04 | 2.91 | 8.59 | 12.26 | 1.49 | 5.97 | 5.74 | 5.03 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.30 | 4.05 | 7.56 | 9.05 | 1.33 | 1.50 | 3.00 | 11.00 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| SFG vs L | SFG BvP | SDP vs L | SDP BvP | ||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Madison Bumgarner – Just when I thought I finally found a pitcher to be excited about, I popped up Bummies game log. 3 ER-allowed in each of his past 3 starts and he hasn’t had a start where he really paid off his high salary in each of his last 5. He was strong in his last appearance against the Pads though, going 7 innings with 6 K’s and 2 ER. On the season, SDP is hitting just .163 off him and he has 24 K’s in 20 IP. I can get behind this play tonight in a spacious PetCo Park. Starter Rating: 9 out of 10
- Robbie Erlin – In 2 home starts his ERA is 2.77 with 7.6 K/9. On the road that ERA is over 8. The Giants are about as poor offensively as you’ll find right now and even though he is unlikely to get the win, the O/U of just 7 shows Vegas sees this being a low-scoring affair and you can find worse value for a 2nd pitcher on a site like DK where he’s just $5800. Starter Rating: 6 out of 10
Batter Grind Down
- Jesus Guzman has CRUSHED Bumgarner in his history. He’s 12 for 30 with 2 HR and may be a great sneaky upside play who won’t be highly owned in GPPs.
- Chase Headley has also fared well, going 10-33 with 3 HR against Bum.
- Lefties are hitting .318 off Erlin and righties are at .269. Either way, if you trust the San Fran bats you might be able to find some value there. I personally do not.
- Overall, this looks to be a low scoring affair and outside of a couple of guys, there’s not a ton of value here.
