ALCS Game 4 Odds and Betting Picks: Astros at Yankees
Heavy rain in New York Wednesday pushed back Game 4 of the ALCS to Thursday night. The first pitch is set for 8:08 PM ET. The Houston Astros dropped Game 1 of the series but have roared back to take a 2-1 series lead on the shoulders of dominant pitching performances by Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. Let’s take a look at ALCS Game 4 odds and betting picks as the New York Yankees try to even the series with the Astros.
ALCS Game 4 Odds and Betting Picks: Astros at Yankees
- Astros +116 (use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get these odds)
- Yankees -125 (use our William Hill promo code to get these odds)
- Total Runs: 8.5
Be sure to check out our MLB lines and betting odds comparison tool. The comparison tool highlights the best lines from three online sports betting sites, saving you time and money as you make your MLB picks.
Through the first three games of the ALCS, both high powered offenses have largely been held in check. The two teams have combined for 10 runs in the last two games. I expect this trend to break in game 4. The Yankees have been dominated by the top two Cy Young candidates in back to back games. They’ll find Zack Greinke to be a welcome sight on the mound in Game 4. While Greinke is certainly talented in his own right, he has struggled this postseason and in his Game 1 start the Yankees exploded for 7 runs. Plus, he’s not going to be hammering the top of the zone with 99 mph fastballs a la Garret Cole. This Yankees lineup is too strong to keep down for too long and they have a good opportunity get back on track in this game.
Masahiro Tanaka, who has been spectacular so far this season post season, takes the ball for the Yankees Friday night. However, he has shown a propensity to give up runs this season as evidenced by his 4.45 ERA. The Astros also seemingly hit their stride offensively in the last game. We saw them run the bases aggressively, perfectly execute a hit and run, and display the ability to hit the long ball proving they can beat you in a number of ways. It’s also worth mentioning this will be the second time the Astros have seen Tanaka in this series which may play to their advantage offensively. Expect them to make it tough on him this time around and score some runs.
ALCS Game 4 Betting Picks: Over 8.5, Yankees -125
The run total for this game is set at 8.5 at FanDuel and I like Over 8.5 (-106). I see this as a game where both of these highly talented offenses finally display their firepower in a shootout. Expect plenty of long balls as the stars come out in Game 4 of the ALCS.
As for a winner in this game, I’m backing the Yankees moneyline -125. They’ve dropped two in a row and can’t afford to drop a third especially in their own ballpark. Expect them to come out with intensity, focus, and a little bit desperate. Plus, if this game turns into a shootout as I’m predicting then the starters in Game 4 will be short lived and the bullpens will become a key factor. Although the Yankees pen has been taxed a bit in the last two games thanks to extra innings in Game 2 and the early exit of Luis Severino in game 3, I still believe the bullpen is where they have a distinct advantage over the Astros. If Game 4 turns into a battle of relief pitching, look for the Yankees to win in a shootout. I see the final score looking something like 6-4. If you’re feeling confident, take the Yankees -1.5 at +158 at FanDuel.
ALCS Game 4 Betting Picks — Player Props
Don’t live in a state with legal online sports betting? Click the following link to pick MLB player props at Monkey Knife Fight and get up to a $500 deposit bonus using the promo code GRINDERS.
Monkey Knife Fight Plays
Over/Under: Over – Jose Altuve at 1.5 hits + walks; Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 total bases for Game 4.
Altuve is one of the hottest hitters in the series accumulating 5 hits in 12 at-bats. He put together two multi-hit performances in the first three games. Look for that trend to continue as well as his ability to work counts and draw walks. Torres has been hot in this series as well homering twice in the first three games. He is as likely a candidate as any for an extra-base hit which bodes well for his odds to reach more than one base in this game. If you get both props right, the payout for this game is 2.4x your buy-in.
Total Base Race: Altuve + LeMahieu + Judge Over 9.5 combined bases
The object in Monkey Knife Fight’s Total Base Race is to pick three players and try to predict how many bases they can accumulate together. You can set the goal at 7.5 for a 2x payout, 9.5 for a 3x payout and 11.5 for a 5x payout. The way I look at it is if all three guys you pick come around to score then they’ve reached the 12 total base mark together. I went with Jose Altuve, DJ LeMahieu, and Aaron Judge and set the goal at 9.5 bases. Altuve is a likely candidate to have a multi-hit performance. LeMahieu is hitting at the top of a dynamic Yankee lineup and has reaped the benefits of that all season long scoring a ton of runs. Aaron Judge is a threat to leave the yard at any moment, especially in the Bronx. There’s a good possibility all three of these guys come around to score in Game 4 which would result in 12 bases. Just to be safe, I took Over the 9.5 base total.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images