Astros vs. Braves World Series Game 3 Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Astros vs. Braves Odds
| Astros Odds | -105 |
| Braves Odds | -115 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Date | Friday, Oct. 29 |
| Time | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
On Friday evening, the Houston Astros and the Atlanta Braves will play Game 3 of the 2021 World Series at Truist Park. The Braves erupted for five runs in the first three innings in Game 1 en route to a 6 to 2 victory. The Astros scored five runs in the first two innings of Game 2 on their way to tying up the series. This evening, Houston will send Luis Garcia to the hill as they seek a commanding 2-1 series lead. Atlanta will counter with Ian Anderson. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair, pricing Atlanta as -115 home favorites on the money line.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 3 of the World Series in Atlanta.
Read more: Same Game Parlay for Game 3
Houston Astros
Garcia had a 3.30 ERA, 3.98 xERA, and a 3.63 FIP for the Astros in 155.1 innings of work during the regular season. He was significantly better at Minute Maid Park than he was when pitching on the road. Pitching on the road in his career, Garcia owns a 4.37 FIP and a 1.27 WHIP. In his only start of the division series against the Chicago White Sox, Garcia was tagged for five earned runs in only 2.2 innings on the road. Pitching at home in Game 2 of the ALCS, Garcia was blasted for five earned runs in one inning of work against Boston. Garcia was surprisingly excellent in his final start of the ALCS, delivering 5.2 innings of scoreless baseball. Still, his inconsistency this October, coupled with his career struggles away from Minute Maid Park make Garcia a tough person for bettors to trust in this one.
Against right-handed pitching in 2021, Houston ranked fourth in OPS, ninth in ISO, 11th in walk rate, and had the second-best strikeout percentage of any team in the league at the plate. The Astros have scored five or more runs in 10 of their 12 postseason games this October. Jose Altuve, Michael Brantely, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa, Kyle Tucker, and Yuli Gurriel is arguably the deepest lineup in baseball. Expect disciplined at-bats from this group in Game 3 to lead to a number of run-scoring opportunities for this dangerous offensive attack.
Houston’s relief unit has been surprisingly reliable for the most part during this postseason. Ryne Stanek, Phil Maton, Kendall Graveman, and Ryan Pressly have formed a dominant foursome at the backend of this bullpen. As the series progresses, the main concern for Manager Dusty Baker is the same concern that his opponent faces—a lack of depth. After forcing the bullpen to cover seven innings in Game 1, Baker was forced to use four relievers in Game 2 after Urquidy was removed after just five innings of work. Still, the off-day yesterday means that everyone from this relief unit will be rested and ready to be deployed this evening. Usage concerns are unlikely to manifest for this group until later this weekend.
Atlanta Braves
Anderson was outstanding as a rookie during the COVID-truncated 2020 campaign. However, he regressed significantly as a sophomore—posting a 3.58 ERA, 4.30 xERA, and a 4.12 FIP in 24 starts in 2021. He ranked worse than league average in xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel-rate, strikeout and walk percentage, and chase rate. Yet, Anderson was at his best when he was pitching at home, delivering a 3.66 FIP anda 1.13 WHIP across 61.1 innings of work. After returning from a late-season injury, Anderson had a 3.62 ERA and a 5.67 FIP in his final six trips to the mound in the regular season. He has been much better this October with a 2.25 ERA and a 3.50 FIP in 12.0 innings. Anderson held the Milwaukee Brewers scoreless over five innings in his only start of the division series, and managed to allow only three earned runs in seven innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers in two NLCS outings. Anderson is an unlikely to get deep into tonight’s ballgame, but he should be able to keep Atlanta competitive for as long as he remains on the mound.
Against right-handed pitching in 2021, Atlanta ranked sixth in OPS, fourth in ISO, 13th in walk-rate, and 23rd in strikeout percentage. Eddie Rosario, Freddie Freeman, Jorge Solder, and Joc Pederson have all been tremendous this postseason, each posting an OPS of .769 or better. Ozzie Albies saw his bat wake up in Game 1. It would be a tremendous boon for this offense if he can get hot at home this weekend. The Braves have scored five runs or more in four of their last seven games. However, they also have two games in that stretch in which they have scored two runs. This is a volatile offense that is hard for bettors to trust on a nightly basis, but they have a favorable matchup in this one against Garcia.
Manager Brian Snitker has been recklessly aggressive with his top bullpen options this postseason, but it has proved to be a successful strategy to this point. Yet, he might have to be more mindful of his relief unit usage after Charlie Morton exited Game 1 in the third inning with an injury. Tyler Matzek has appeared in 10 of Atlanta’s 12 playoff games. Luke Jackson has been called upon nine times. Will Smith has made eight trips to the mound. There are no immediate usage concerns for this unit after having yesterday off from action. However, general fatigue could be an issue as this series progresses.
Astros-Braves Pick
These are two evenly-matched teams and the price on the money line reflects that fact. Instead of playing russian roulette on the side in this game, bettors should instead turn their attention to the total. At first pitch this evening, the temperature is forecasted to be in the low-50s—conditions that are not conducive to hitting the baseball out of the yard. Bettors should consider a small wager on the under in this one.
PICKS: Under 8.5 (-110)
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