2022 Atlanta Falcons Odds, Schedule, & Fantasy Football Team Preview
Hello Grinders, welcome to the 2022 Atlanta Falcons preview. The Falcons got a major overhaul by trading longtime starting quarterback Matt Ryan for a 2022 third-round draft pick this offseason. Nobody knows how this new-look offense will gel under Marcus Mariota, but perhaps we can take advantage these unknowns. Let’s dive in.
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2022 Atlanta Falcons Schedule, Lines, and Best Bets
Projected Odds, derived & modified from data originally published by Sean Koerner here.
Win Total and Total Games Favored:
5 (120) / 1 Games Favored ( 0 Big Favorites / 11 Big Dogs)
The Falcons are coming off a 7-10 season but are projected to go closer to 5-12 this season. They are heavy dogs in the majority of their games and their outlook doesn’t look too promising. The Falcons were 8th in pass rate last season and given that we likely see them in negative game scripts for much of the season, there’s a good chance we see them continue to be among the top third of the league in pass rate as they play from behind.
Best Bet: Over 4.5 Wins // -105 on BetMGM
I realize making this bet takes a leap of faith, but it’s basically betting that the Falcons hit the 5 wins we’re projecting them for. To put 5 wins into perspective, there were five teams last season who didn’t reach 5 wins (Jaguars, Lions, Jets, Giants and Texans). The hope here is that the switch from Matt Ryan to Marcus Mariota isn’t a complete disaster, while also hoping that Kyle Pitts elevates his game in Year 2. If you think the Falcons are a bottom-five team in the league, then yeah, maybe this bet is a stretch. But if they can scrape together a few wins in a division where Baker Mayfield is now leading the Carolina Panthers and where the Saints have health (and suspension) concerns among their core offensive unit, I do think the over is feasible.
Prize Picks Top Props
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Favorite Prop: Drake London Under 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns
London was taken with the #8 pick this NFL Draft and was the top wide receiver chosen. The sky is the limit for him, but I still prefer the Under 4.5 Receiving Touchdown prop here. The reason for this is 1) the Falcons replaced Matt Ryan with Marcus Mariota, which is a big downgrade to the passing game 2) Cordarrelle Patterson was re-signed to a two-year contract and there’s buzz he could be used more in the passing game and 3) Kyle Pitts should emerge more as a focal point in this offense in his sophomore year. Despite having a pass-first offense last season and Matt Ryan under center, only one player on the Falcons caught more than 4.5 touchdowns last season, and that was running back Cordarrelle Patterson with five. We saw Russell Gage (4), Hayden Hurst (3) and Olamide Zaccheaus (3) not even hit the Over 4.5, while Kyle Pitts had just one receiving touchdown all season and should see some positive regression in this department.
Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Football Projections
Team Rankings and Ratings
Offense Ranks:Rank 31/ Weak Rush / Weak Pass/ Rank 31 Points)
Defense Ranks:Rank 31/ Weak Rush / Below Average pass / Rank 1 Points Allowed)
Opponent Strength – Rushing:9 difficult vs. rush. 4 soft vs. rush.
Opponent Strength – Passing:10 difficult vs. pass. 5 soft vs, pass.
The Falcons were a mess last season on both ends of the field and ranked dead last in sacks in 2021. The Falcons did sign cornerback Casey Hayward to a two-year contract to help their secondary, but he is 33-years old so it remains to be seen how much he has left in the tank. The fact the Falcons were so bad on defense last season is somewhat good for fantasy purposes in that they often found themselves in negative game scripts, which forced Atlanta to play from behind and go pass-heavy offensively. If this trend continues in 2022, this should mean we continue to see a heavy dose of Cordarrelle Patterson, Kyle Pitts and rookie Drake London. However, note that Mariota is a much more mobile quarterback than Matt Ryan was, so we could also see Mariota using his feet more often this season (which would funnel opportunities away from their receivers). I am excited to see if Pitts can finally emerge as a TE1 option, but it feels like much of that will depend on how effective Mariota is.
Atlanta Falcons Top Fantasy Football Plays & Picks
Noteworthy Depth Chart
QB: Marcus Mariota – Underdog Rank: 244 (ADP 218 / -10.66% ADP Gap)
RB: Cordarrelle Patterson – Underdog Rank: 108 (ADP 104 / -3.7% ADP Gap)
RB: Tyler Allgeier – Underdog Rank: 158 (ADP 151 / -4.43% ADP Gap)
WR: Drake London – Underdog Rank: 78 (ADP 75 / -3.85% ADP Gap)
WR: Bryan Edwards – Underdog Rank: 196 (ADP 215 / 9.69% ADP Gap)
WR: Olamide Zaccheaus – Underdog Rank: Not Ranked
TE: Kyle Pitts – Underdog Rank: 44 (ADP 32 / -27.27% ADP Gap)
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New Additions of Note: Marcus Mariota, QB // Damien Williams, RB // KhaDarel Hodge, WR // Auden Tate, WR // Damiere Byrd, WR // Anthony Firkser, TE
Departures of Note: Matt Ryan, QB // Russell Gage, WR // Hayden Hurst, TE // Casey Heyward, CB
Let’s spend a moment talking about Marcus Mariota. Mariota hasn’t started in the past two seasons and enters his age-28 year. Still, this is someone who owns a career 77:45 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his career with 13 rushing touchdowns, so this is clearly Mariota’s job to lose as he’s at least shown to be an NFL-level talent. The Falcons did use a third-round pick to draft rookie QB Desmond Ridder, but it’s unlikely Ridder plays unless Mariota gets hurt or the Falcons want to see what they have in him down the stretch. It’s worth noting that Mariota does have familiarity with Falcons Head Coach Arthur Smith as the two played together in Tennessee, so Mariota should have a leg up over Ridder no matter what the buzz is for Ridder coming out of training camp. I don’t think Mariota will be someone we’ll be looking to for fantasy or DFS purposes, but I do think they stick with him for as long as possible until Ridder is ready.
With Calvin Ridley suspended for the 2022 season and both Russell Gage / Hayden Hurst leaving, the Falcons brought in some reinforcements. KhaDarel Hodge, Auden Tate, Damiere Byrd and Anthony Firkser were signed to help fill that void, but I doubt any are of fantasy relevance. The signing of Damien Williams is the one that intrigues me the most. It is a bit of a crowded backfield as the team drafted Tyler Allgeier to help slot in behind Cordarrelle Patterson, but it wouldn’t shock me if we saw some kind of rotation here where Allgeier and Williams get some work behind Patterson, similar to how Mike Davis was a factor in this backfield in 2021 to allow Patterson to see more reps as a hybrid running back / wide receiver. With Patterson likely to be used in a Deebo Samuel type role, he’s the one with the most fantasy upside as the offense appears it could flow through him as their most versatile talent.
Image Credit: Imagn