Primetime Parlay: Bengals vs. Browns Same Game Parlay Picks
ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool utilizes thousands of simulations of RotoGrinders’ NFL Statistical projections to construct profitable same game parlays across sports betting sites. We will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props and betting odds across sportsbooks to pick the most profitable combination of outcomes for primetime NFL matchups. Today, we build a Monday Night Football same game parlay for the Bengals vs Browns.
Happy Halloween! The NFL knew exactly what they were doing when scheduling the Bengals at the Browns for Halloween. Trick or treat? Will the division rivalry result in a highly-contested game between two contenders? Treat! Or, will this be a mundane, low-scoring affair typical of the AFC North? Trick! Who knows? However, we do know that we are going to use ParlayIQ to build a correlated same-game parlay ticket on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Same Game Parlay for Bengals vs. Browns
The Cleveland Browns are 3.5-point underdogs at the time of this writing on FanDuel. The cost for this side of the betting spread is -118, indicating a bit more of action on the Cleveland side. 58% of betting tickets landed on the Bengals over the course of the week while 53% of the green sits on the Cleveland side.
As for our game total, FanDuel attaches a 45.5-point game total to this contest. Similar to the spread breakdown, 56% of the tickets sit with the over while 56% of money sides with the under. The Browns need a win in a very big way before their season gets completely away from them while the Bengals won back-to-back weeks.
Normally, we don’t discuss the weather for NFL contests but there is a chance for some showers tonight in Cleveland. With the way the Browns like to play football, bad weather will only suppress scoring and slow the game down even more.
For injuries, the marquee news is the loss of Ja’Marr Chase for the Bengals. Chase will not go to the IR with his hip and labrum injury. Instead, the Bengals will hope Chase can get better with a matchup against the Panthers followed by a bye after tonight’s game. Edge rusher Trey Hendrickson is questionable for tonight’s contest.
Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney will both be active for tonight’s contest. David Njoku, Denzel Ward, and guard Wyatt Teller are out. Not injury-related, but worth noting, the Browns noted potential interested in trading Kareem Hunt.
AFC North games always feel like tightly-contested, low-scoring games without a bunch of pop. That said, the Bengals’ offense has recently clicked with Joe Burrow piling up offensive statistics a la last year’s late-season run. Despite their reputation, the Browns rank 30th in opponent-scoring per game and in the bottom half of the league for opposing yards per play. Let’s script another prop-based ticket after almost hitting our ticket for last night’s Bills-Packers game.
Same Game Parlay Picks – Bengals & Browns Props
Nick Chubb Over 7.5 Receiving Yards
We open with a non-surprising player to include in a less conventional manner. Nick Chubb will be tied to many same-game parlay tickets this evening but likely for either rushing or a touchdown. I am a fan of an anytime touchdown and would consider using it as an add-on when given boost opportunities on certain sports betting sites.
As for his receiving yardage, we are opening with a gamble. Either Nick Chubb is going to catch the football or he isn’t. He has not exceed this total by much this season but has gone over 10 receiving yards three times. Normally, when he secures a catch, he goes over this total. A screen? A broken play? A dump-off? We are looking for some way to get him involved. In the unlikely scenario that Kareem Hunt is inactive because of trade speculation, Chubb certainly will see a better likelihood of securing a catch or two.
68% of the ParlayIQ simulations feature Nick Chubb going over on this prop. This is a gamble but based on our simulations, feels like an incorrect price at -105.
Joe Mixon Over 65.5 Rushing Yards
Next, we go to the opposite sideline to add Joe Mixon and his rushing prop to our ticket. Our stat projections put Mixon at around 73 yards on 19 rushing attempts.
If the game plays out like these games often do, Mixon could be in for a hefty workload. Mixon has received plenty of volume over the past few weeks to normally middling results. He carried the ball 17 times last week, albeit inefficiently. The loss of Ja’Marr Chase leaves some holes in the offense and the Bengals could choose to lean on Mixon early and often against an underwhelming rush defense (4.7 YPC).
With Myles Garrett back in the fold with Jadeveon Clowney, the Bengals may opt to use the run game to help protect Joe Burrow and keep him out of obvious passing downs. We add this leg and hope Mixon can be a bit more efficent this week on the ground.
Hayden Hurst Over 38.5 Receiving Yards
Logically speaking, the volume that Ja’Marr Chase leaves behind would push me towards looking at Tyler Boyd or Tee Higgins and their yardage prop. However, our ParlayIQ simulations favor the over for Hayden Hurst and prefer the under for the other two. Perhaps, the props for both Higgins and Boyd were steamed up way higher because of the loss of Chase and Hurst’s prop wasn’t exaggerated as much.
That said, the volume needs to go somewhere. Hurst saw 8 targets last week and has been a favorite target of Joe Burrow throughout the season. Even if Hurst sees an additional 2-3 targets because of the injury, that might be enough to get over this modest receiving number. Hurst shouldn’t feature a depth of target that deep that the weather would impact that aspect of the passing game that much.
ParlayIQ is very much in favor of this leg being added to our SGP. With what we have, I am comfortable adding a touchdown next but will try to add a fourth player prop, instead. You can use any touchdowns to make your payout juicier.
Amari Cooper Over 52.5 Receiving Yards
Finally, we jump back across to the Browns’ side of the field to add the ever-reliable Amari Cooper. Cooper was able to accrue 74 receiving yards last week with only four targets. The previous two weeks Cooper was targeted 12 times in each contest.
The catch-to-target ratio was a bit of a concern over those two weeks but Cooper previously had two double-digit target games with far greater efficiency. Against the Bengals, Cooper is easily the feature piece of the offense when they throw. Without David Njoku, the Browns’ offense has a few targets to spread around amongst the receiving corps.
With Cooper’s big play ability, an inefficient day can still take us home. If the Bengals start running up the score, both of our Brown’s league are still in play as they chase the lead.
Bengals vs. Browns Parlay Odds
- Chubb Over 7.5 Receiving Yards
- Mixon Over 65.5 Rushing Yards
- Hurst Over 38.5 Receiving Yards
- Cooper Over 52.5 Receiving Yards
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ParlayIQ offers the following price for our one-game parlay ticket:
Meanwhile, FanDuel gives us a much friendlier price below:
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PLACE THIS BET ON Parlay Odds: +1236
Risk: 1/2 unit to win 6.18 units
Good luck with all of your bets and plays this evening. Share your parlays with me on Twitter and any other plays you are making for the game. First touchdown scorers? Touchdowns? DFS lineups? Thanks for reading.
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