Best Home Run Bets Today | 10 Best MLB Home Run Picks on Aug 28
Five MLB games light up the board tonight, and Polymarket’s home run markets already carry plenty of value from Wrigley Field to Angel Stadium.
This guide breaks down the top home run plays across all five matchups, ranking the ten highest-priced sluggers on each board, and flags one standout Editor’s Pick per game worked out to the exact share count.
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Reds vs Cubs: Best Home Run Bets Today
Cincinnati sits fifth in the NL Central at 63-71 and heads to Wrigley Field to face a Cubs club running second in the division at 76-58.
Reds rookie Rhett Lowder (5-8, 5.13 ERA) gets the ball against Chicago’s David Peterson (7-7, 5.17 ERA), a pairing where neither arm has been especially reliable this year.
Editor’s Pick: Best Home Run Prop Today
Eugenio Suárez has quietly been one of the steadier power bats in this game, and Cincinnati’s trip to Wrigley gives him a look at a Chicago staff that’s had its share of shaky nights. A 5.13 ERA from the Reds’ starter is the kind of number that tends to produce mistakes, and he’s made teams pay for exactly that kind of pitch all year.
The ticket shows a $100 buy on Yes at an average price of 15.38 cents, working out to roughly 650 shares (100 ÷ 0.1538), each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If he homers: the position is worth about $618.85 to win, a profit near $518.85 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn’t: the full $100 stake is gone, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That’s better than 6-to-1 on a hitter who’s cleared this line before, and it’s the number we like best to open tonight’s slate.
Reds vs Cubs Home Run Props: Top 10
Both sides of this board are actively traded, so every line below carries a live Yes and No price.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (Home run 1+: 22% Yes / 79% No): Still the highest price on this board, riding an MVP-caliber season for a resurgent Cubs offense.
- Ian Happ (Home run 1+: 16% Yes / 85% No): Switch-hitting power gives him a look from either side against Cincinnati’s staff.
- Editor’s Pick: Suárez (Home run 1+: 15% Yes / 86% No): The full case is broken down above.
- Seiya Suzuki (Home run 1+: 15% Yes / 86% No): Pull-side pop plays well against a Reds staff that’s leaked its share of fly-ball damage.
- Michael Busch (Home run 1+: 14% Yes / 87% No): A middle-of-the-order role means plenty of looks at a Lowder mistake.
- Sal Stewart (Home run 1+: 14% Yes / 87% No): A legitimate power bat Cincinnati has leaned on down the stretch.
- Alex Bregman (Home run 1+: 13% Yes / 88% No): A veteran approach that stays dangerous even against tougher right-handed arms.
- Elly De La Cruz (Home run 1+: 13% Yes / 88% No): Explosive bat speed means this price may undersell his real upside.
- Matt McLain (Home run 1+: 13% Yes / 92% No): Bat-to-ball skills cap the odds here, but the pop is real.
- Dane Myers (Home run 1+: 10% Yes / 92% No): The longest shot on this board tonight.
Dodgers vs Tigers: Home Run Props to Target
The Dodgers own the best record in the National League at 80-54 and roll into Comerica Park for Tarik Skubal‘s first start against his former club since the trade deadline blockbuster. He takes a 2.91 ERA into the outing and faces Detroit’s Drew Anderson (4-5, 4.09 ERA), with the Tigers sitting at a disappointing 62-71.
Editor’s Pick: Best Home Run Prop Today
All eyes tonight are on the pitching rematch, but Freddie Freeman‘s line-drive power still matches up well against a Tigers staff that’s leaked runs most of the season. A 4.09 ERA from the Detroit starter gives a veteran bat like this one plenty of chances to do damage, even with the spotlight pointed elsewhere.
The ticket shows a $100 buy on Yes at an average price of 11 cents, working out to roughly 909 shares (100 ÷ 0.11).
- If he homers: the position is worth about $863.00 to win, a profit near $763.00 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn’t: the entire $100 stake is lost.
Nearly 8.6-to-1, this is the biggest swing of tonight’s Editor’s Picks, but it’s a fair price given how often Detroit’s pitching has struggled.
Dodgers vs Tigers Home Run Props: Top 10
Every contract on this board is actively priced on both sides.
- Shohei Ohtani (Home run 1+: 21% Yes / 80% No): The clear favorite here, locked in an MVP race that’s the talk of the league.
- Max Muncy (Home run 1+: 19% Yes / 82% No): A real threat against a Tigers bullpen that’s leaked runs all season.
- Mookie Betts (Home run 1+: 12% Yes / 91% No): Steady contact skills make this price more floor than ceiling.
- Editor’s Pick: Freeman (Home run 1+: 11% Yes / 90% No): The full case is broken down above.
- Kyle Tucker (Home run 1+: 11% Yes / 90% No): A dangerous bat in a lineup that’s been the majors’ best all year.
- Spencer Torkelson (Home run 1+: 11% Yes / 91% No): Detroit’s top home run threat, even in a lost season for the club.
- Eduardo Valencia (Home run 1+: 10% Yes / 91% No): A developing power bat getting everyday reps for the Tigers.
- Hao-Yu Lee (Home run 1+: 10% Yes / 92% No): Priced as a longer shot, but capable of a surprise swing.
- Tommy Edman (Home run 1+: 10% Yes / 92% No): More of a contact bat, so this price leans on opportunity over raw power.
- Dillon Dingler (Home run 1+: 9% Yes / 92% No): The longest shot on this board.
Astros vs Mets: Home Run Props to Target
Houston sits at 67-67 and is trying to salvage its wild-card push at Citi Field against a Mets club that’s fallen to 60-74 and well off the pace in the NL East.
Hunter Brown (3-3, 3.51 ERA) starts for the Astros against New York’s Christian Scott (4-3, 3.73 ERA).
Editor’s Pick: Best Home Run Prop Today
Yordan Alvarez has been Houston’s clear top power threat all year, and with 36 home runs already banked, he’s the runaway favorite on this entire board. New York’s shaky rotation and a Mets club buried at the bottom of the NL East only add to the case for riding the board’s top price tonight.
The ticket shows a $100 buy on Yes at an average price of 24 cents, working out to roughly 417 shares (100 ÷ 0.24).
- If he homers: the position is worth about $398.50 to win, a profit near $298.50 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn’t: the full $100 is gone.
Just under 4-to-1, this is the shortest price of tonight’s Editor’s Picks, and the safest of the bunch given how far ahead this hitter sits on this board.
Astros vs Mets Home Run Props: Top 10
All ten contracts below are actively priced on both sides.
- Editor’s Pick: Alvarez (Home run 1+: 24% Yes / 77% No): The full case is broken down above.
- Luis Robert Jr. (Home run 1+: 17% Yes / 91% No): Explosive bat speed keeps him a live threat in any at-bat.
- Christian Walker (Home run 1+: 16% Yes / 85% No): A steady source of extra-base power in the middle of Houston’s order.
- Daulton Varsho (Home run 1+: 14% Yes / 88% No): Cooled off some in his first year in Houston, but he’s still a switch-hitter capable of turning on a mistake.
- Francisco Lindor (Home run 1+: 13% Yes / 88% No): A switch-hitting threat capable of doing damage from either side.
- Jared Young (Home run 1+: 13% Yes / 91% No): One of the few names on this board trending up rather than down.
- Isaac Paredes (Home run 1+: 12% Yes / 89% No): A pull-heavy approach that plays well against a Mets staff missing some bite.
- A.J. Ewing (Home run 1+: 11% Yes / 93% No): An everyday look keeps this price from drifting any lower.
- Jose Altuve (Home run 1+: 10% Yes / 92% No): More contact-first than power, so this price leans on opportunity.
- Carson Benge (Home run 1+: 8% Yes / 93% No): The longest shot on this board.
Red Sox vs Yankees: Home Run Props to Target
The Yankees sit at 75-58 and host Boston (73-60) at Yankee Stadium in a pivotal AL East series, four games behind Tampa Bay for the division lead.
Boston lefty Patrick Sandoval (1-2, 4.54 ERA) faces Cam Schlittler (11-6, 2.16 ERA), who’s anchored the Yankees’ rotation all season.
Editor’s Pick: Best Home Run Prop Today
The Yankees are chasing Tampa Bay for the AL East lead, and Willson Contreras has been a steady source of extra-base pop from behind the plate all year. A shaky 4.54 ERA from the Boston lefty, plus Yankee Stadium’s short porch to right field, only sweetens the matchup for a switch-hitter capable of turning on a mistake.
The ticket shows a $100 buy on Yes at an average price of 13.96 cents, working out to roughly 716 shares (100 ÷ 0.1396).
- If he homers: the position is worth about $681.07 to win, a profit near $581.07 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn’t: the entire $100 is lost, since the contract settles all-or-nothing.
Just under 7-to-1, this is a hitter getting a favorable park and a struggling opposing starter, and it’s the play we’re most comfortable standing behind tonight.
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Red Sox vs Yankees Home Run Props: Top 10
Every line below is actively priced on both sides of the board.
- Paul Goldschmidt (Home run 1+: 17% Yes / 88% No): Still capable of turning around a mistake even in the veteran stage of his career.
- Trent Grisham (Home run 1+: 17% Yes / 87% No): Tied for the top price in this game, with a swing built for pull-side power.
- Wilyer Abreu (Home run 1+: 16% Yes / 85% No): One of Boston’s more aggressive hitters against soft contact.
- Ben Rice (Home run 1+: 16% Yes / 85% No): A middle-of-the-order threat who draws a favorable lefty matchup tonight.
- Amed Rosario (Home run 1+: 14% Yes / 90% No): More of a contact bat, so this price leans on opportunity over raw power.
- Cody Bellinger (Home run 1+: 13% Yes / 88% No): A pull-heavy lefty swing that plays well in this ballpark.
- Editor’s Pick: Contreras (Home run 1+: 13% Yes / 88% No): The full case is broken down above.
- George Lombard Jr. (Home run 1+: 12% Yes / 93% No): A developing bat getting a look against a shakier Boston starter.
- Nick Sogard (Home run 1+: 10% Yes / 93% No): Priced as a longer shot in this spot.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (Home run 1+: 8% Yes / 93% No): The longest shot on this board.
Phillies vs Angels: Home Run Props to Target
Philadelphia sits at 74-60 and visits Angel Stadium against an Angels club at 52-82, the second-worst record in baseball.
Phillies right-hander Andrew Painter (3-8, 6.04 ERA) faces Los Angeles lefty Reid Detmers (4-8, 3.62 ERA).
Editor’s Pick: Best Home Run Prop Today
Kyle Schwarber leads the entire slate at 25% on this line, and the matchup explains why. A 6.04 ERA from the Phillies’ starter is the kind of number he’s made a career out of punishing, and a Philadelphia offense that’s gotten hot lately, with Bryce Harper hitting .400 with two home runs over his last 10 games, only adds to the case.
The Angels, at 52-82, have struggled all year against exactly this kind of power bat.
The ticket shows a $100 buy on Yes at an average price of 25 cents, working out to exactly 400 shares (100 ÷ 0.25).
- If he homers: the position is worth about $383 to win, a profit of roughly $283 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn’t: the $100 stake is lost outright.
Just under 3.8-to-1, this is the shortest price of the night’s Editor’s Picks, and the matchup context makes it the safest of the bunch.
Phillies vs Angels Home Run Props: Top 10
Every contract below is actively priced on both sides of the board.
- Editor’s Pick: Schwarber (Home run 1+: 25% Yes / 76% No): The full case for the slate’s top price is broken down above.
- Mike Trout (Home run 1+: 18% Yes / 84% No): Still a genuine power threat when healthy and locked in.
- J.T. Realmuto (Home run 1+: 17% Yes / 89% No): A veteran bat that keeps producing extra-base pop from behind the plate.
- Bryce Harper (Home run 1+: 16% Yes / 85% No): Hitting .400 over his last 10 games, one of the hottest bats on this entire board.
- Zach Neto (Home run 1+: 16% Yes / 85% No): A pull-heavy swing that gives him real thump for a middle infielder.
- Alec Bohm (Home run 1+: 15% Yes / 90% No): A steady source of extra-base damage in Philadelphia’s lineup.
- Jose Siri (Home run 1+: 14% Yes / 88% No): Explosive bat speed keeps his ceiling higher than this price implies.
- Moisés Ballesteros (Home run 1+: 14% Yes / 89% No): A developing power bat getting a look against a struggling Angels staff.
- Trea Turner (Home run 1+: 14% Yes / 88% No): More speed than raw power, but capable of turning around a mistake.
- Vaughn Grissom (Home run 1+: 11% Yes / 94% No): The longest shot on this board.
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Final Thoughts
Five games, five Editor’s Picks, and a home run board with something for cautious and aggressive traders alike tonight.
The Phillies-Angels play carries the shortest price of the night at 25%, while the Dodgers-Tigers and Red Sox-Yankees plays offer the deepest value among tonight’s featured picks.
If you want to track tonight’s full board, the best prediction market apps hub keeps every line updated as the market moves.
Most of these props will keep shifting until first pitch, so it’s worth checking back closer to game time before locking in a position.
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