Daily Batter Breakdown: Monday, June 15th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-06-17 18:43:57

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Whenever there are at least eight games on the night slate, I’ll break down some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup.

The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries on FanDuel and DraftKings among other sites, and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him.

		A.J. Pierzynski
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.277	0.707	2.15%	0.310
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.273	0.623	0.00%	0.277
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Porcello – RIGHT		0.268	0.747	2.63%	0.326
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.088	0.000	$2,500	$6,800	$3,500	$56,800

A.J. Pierzynski

After a day off yesterday, Pierzynski should be in the lineup tonight against Porcello in Fenway Park. Porcello continues to struggle against lefties with a .343 wOBA allowed that mirrors his career numbers. He has never been great at getting left-handers out and his move to Fenway has increased his HR/9 to 1.53 this year. Most people will be on the Red Sox bats, but I do really like the Braves lefties here (and Pierzynski), as he is one of the better catcher options in a slate devoid of solid catcher options. Pierzynski is affordable and has hit righties well in his career.

		Freddie Freeman
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.304	0.907	3.97%	0.394
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.321	1.031	7.14%	0.435
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Porcello – RIGHT		0.268	0.747	2.63%	0.326
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.088	0.000	$3,900	$10,650	$5,200	$87,500

Freddie Freeman

Freeman is expensive on DraftKings but definitely affordable on FanDuel. Freeman has crushed right-handers at a .408 wOBA this year and a .258 ISO, numbers which are fairly representative of his career numbers. I talked a bit above about how Porcello really struggles against lefties and I am really expecting him to struggle against Freeman tonight. I think Freeman is going to be one of the lower owned first basemen in the slate because of Cabrera and a few others, but I think he definitely has the same upside in Fenway.

		Brian Dozier
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.237	0.766	4.01%	0.341
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.211	0.821	5.26%	0.371
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Wacha – RIGHT		0.240	0.654	1.93%	0.289
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.019	0.000	$3,900	$10,500	$4,300	$75,100

Brian Dozier

I am fairly bullish on Dozier today; he is hot with the bat and will face Lackey in Busch tonight. I like him because of his insane power numbers against righties this year at a .256 ISO. I am certain his ownership will be down, especially because of the R/R matchup and the fact that Dozier is known for crushing lefties, but he has really improved against RHP this year. Lackey has been anything but good lately and could have trouble against a Minnesota lineup which has been one of the bigger surprises of the year so far.

		Manny Machado
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.289	0.810	4.37%	0.353
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.462	1.212	7.69%	0.523
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Harang – RIGHT		0.240	0.682	2.48%	0.301
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.282	0.000	$3,400	$10,100	$4,200	$79,100

Manny Machado

Harang is having one of the best seasons of his career so far but his marks against right-handed hitters are due to change for the worse. His BABIP is an unsustainable .248, which means a regression is coming. His career wOBA allowed to righties is 60 points higher than it is right now and eventually he is going to crack. Machado has hit righties extremely well with a .350+ wOBA over the last two years. Machado is extremely hot right now with the stick and should continue to make a solid play tonight, especially at a lower price than the higher-priced guys.

		Carlos Correa
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD

Carlos Correa

Correa has gained points in all of his first few games in the majors and now gets to hit in Minute Maid Park, but it has to be against a righty. He has not been good against right-handers so far in his career, but with only eight plate appearances we can chalk up the six strikeouts to small sample size. Bettis allowed a .488 wOBA to righties last year, and while he has drastically improved his numbers this year to a 2.69 xFIP, a regression will soon follow. This is a very risky pick, but it is not often that you get to use a super prospect at the price that Correa is on FanDuel. This is risky, but Correa did hit righties just fine in the minors.

		Joc Pederson
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.227	0.890	7.57%	0.384
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.067	0.43	0.00%	0.261
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Gallardo – RIGHT
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.107	0.000	$3,800	$9,000	$4,400	$67,300

Joc Pederson

Pederson does not have a great average against righties, but he has a .398 wOBA nonetheless. He’s cooled off lately and does not have any homers in the last couple of weeks, but this is a great time to load him up as most of the industry is off of him now. His power did not go away, and with his ability to draw walks and the strength of the Dodgers lineup, he makes a solid cash game play along with a great GPP upside play. The Dodgers are fantastic against RHP, and with Pederson leading off against Gallardo, who has consistently allowed lefties to do damage in a hitter’s park, I like this play.

		Tyler Collins
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.300	0.827	3.33%	0.359
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.500	1.4	0.00%	0.588
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Moscot – Right		0.200	0.683	5.00%	0.312
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.089	0.000	$2,600	$5,450	$3,100	$35,000

Tyler Collins

It has not been too good of a start for Moscot in his major league career, as he has a 7.48 xFIP and a very low BABIP, which means that the .312 wOBA should soon be going up against lefties. Collins is extremely cheap across the industry and is a nice left-handed bat with a little speed that the Tigers need in the lineup with their righty-heavy lineup. Collins has a .354 wOBA this year against righties in a small sample and should be one of the better value plays tonight; the Tigers are heavily favorites and favorites to score a lot of runs.

		Nolan Reimold
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD

Nolan Reimold

Reimold has continually been injured for the Orioles, but the good thing is that we do not have to worry about that in DFS. Reimold is now hitting at the top of the O’s lineup, and with Harang due for a regression against righties like we talked about above, Reimold could make a solid play. Almost free on FanDuel at $2,400 and on DraftKings for $3,700, he makes a fantastic play, as he has a career .335 wOBA with a .195 ISO against RHP. He has hit fairly well so far in his return this year and should continue to get consistent playing time as a result.

		Colby Rasmus
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.237	0.758	5.26%	0.328
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.308	0.938	0.00%	0.404
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Bettis – RIGHT		0.268	0.724	1.41%	0.321
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.853	0.000	$2,200	$6,600	$3,700	$42,400

Colby Rasmus

Rasmus is taking at-bats from Preston Tucker, who has cooled off, and Rasmus has been producing. He is the bare minimum on FanDuel and extremely cheap on DraftKings tonight. Bettis’ .394 wOBA against lefties last year has been improved this year in a bigger sample, but his BABIP and his xFIP against lefties show that there should be some regression from his .273 wOBA this year. I love the Astros in this game as a GPP stack because of their giant HR potential and cheap prices. Rasmus has a career .340 wOBA against right-handers and is one of the better hitters to target against righties, especially in a hitter’s park.

		Luis Valbuena
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.243	0.798	4.83%	0.348
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.067	0.443	6.67%	0.204
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Bettis – RIGHT		0.268	0.724	1.41%	0.321
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.853	0.000	$2,300	$7,250	$3,600	$59,900

Luis Valbuena

Bettis is due for a regression like we talked about above, and with Valbuena at that price on FanDuel and his cheap price on DraftKings, I am not sure how you say no tonight. Despite his low average, like all of the Astros, he has huge power with a .283 ISO this year and a .345 wOBA. He is hot with a couple of homers in the last few days and really hits right-handed pitching well. Valbuena has been at the bottom of the Astros lineup lately, but that should keep his price down.