Daily Batter Breakdown: Saturday, August 1st

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-08-02 21:28:09

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Whenever there are at least eight games on the night slate, I’ll break down some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup.

The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries on FanDuel and DraftKings among other sites, and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him.

		Jason Castro
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.214	0.667	3.57%	0.296
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.364	1.091	9.09%	0.466
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Hellickson – RIGHT		0.253	0.712	2.16%	0.311
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
0.945	0.000	$2,200	$5,750	$2,800	$41,200

Jason Castro

Back to back homers for Castro and still minimum salary almost everywhere makes him a solid option today if he is in the starting lineup. Castro is not hitting well this year but has hit righties for power and average in the past and now the Astros get to face Jeremy Hellickson in their hitter-friendly park. Hellickson has allowed a .349 wOBA to lefties this year with a 4.60 xFIP and has been hit hard by lefties this year. Castro is a cheap option at a catcher position devoid of solid options.

		Jose Abreu
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.301	0.886	5.52%	0.380
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.407	1.315	11.11%	0.54
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Mitchell – RIGHT		0.255	0.654	0.00%	0.294
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
0.785	0.000	$3,900	$11,400	$5,000	$86,600

Jose Abreu

Bryan Mitchell gets the start for the Yankees today against the hot White Sox bats and while he does not have a lot of major league history, ZIPS projections have him with poor numbers in the majors this year with a 1.39 HR/9 and a 5.43 FIP. Obviously, we are not sure how he will fare, but Abreu has been a monster against righties with a .212 ISO this year and a .379 wOBA and those numbers are even worse than the numbers last year. Abreu should be extremely popular especially on FanDuel at $3,900.

		Brian Dozier
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.269	0.837	4.42%	0.362
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.250	0.921	8.33%	0.397
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Montgomery – LEFT		0.222	0.642	2.71%	0.284
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
1.107	0.000	$3,600	$9,900	$4,900	$79,600

Brian Dozier

I have no qualms about using right-handers against Montgomery despite his solid numbers against them, as most of his numbers are propped up by his hot start. Montgomery has been able to be attacked by solid hitters lately and even though he had a good game last time out, he still allowed two homers. Dozier has a .387 wOBA against lefties with major power and despite his higher price point, he is one of the best second basemen on the docket today.

		Manny Machado
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.293	0.855	5.20%	0.372
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.207	0.465	0.00%	0.216
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Sanchez – RIGHT		0.254	0.000		0.323
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
1.164	0.000	$3,700	$8,900	$4,400	$72,600

Manny Machado

Machado has been the guy this year who I have used in reverse splits situations against righties and it has worked out well. He has a nice .387 wOBA, his best mark of his career against them and he continues to hit well against same-handed counterparts. We have a nice pitcher for reverse splits as well with Anibal Sanchez on the mound who has allowed a .360 wOBA to righties this year. The Tigers have one of the worst bullpens in the league and with Machado being able to hit righties and lefties well, he is good for the entire game regardless of who comes in to pitch.

		Jung-Ho Kang
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.287	0.758	1.44%	0.336
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.381	1.101	9.52%	0.475
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Iglesias – RIGHT
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
1.158	0.000

Jung-Ho Kang

Kang continues to hit the ball with reckless abandon, sacrificing power for OBP despite the fact that he has hit with power as well this year. The Pirates travel to Great American Ballpark today, one of the most hitter-friendly parks this year and with Kang’s .356 wOBA against righties and Iglesias’ inability to pitch a shutout game, Kang should be able to do some damage today. The SS position lacks in solid options and if Kang is in the middle of the lineup, the Pirates should produce today.

		Eddie Rosario
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.254	0.619	1.69%	0.275
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.524	1.667	4.76%	0.696
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Montgomery – LEFT
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
1.107	0.000	$2,600	$6,700	$3,900	$64,000

Eddie Rosario

There are no guarantee that Rosario will be in the lineup today because of the left on left matchup, but his price is cheap and the Twins have a solid over/under today. Rosario hits in the middle of the lineup and has decent numbers against lefties with a .330 wOBA and a 110 wRC+. Montgomery is not good against lefties either with a 4.29 xFIP and a BABIP at .235 which indicates an extreme regression is coming.

		Randal Grichuk
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.269	0.788	4.48%	0.340
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.333	1.044	6.67%	0.448
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		De La Rosa – LEFT		0.237	0.750	3.53%	0.330
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
0.865	0.000	$3,700	$8,400	$4,000	$77,300

Randal Grichuk

De La Rosa has some major reverse splits, but he also has some poor splits against righties as well. Grichuk is cheap and I would imagine that he would hit at the top of the lineup today. The Cardinals have a solid over/under and with De La Rosa struggling with command and Grichuk’s .371 wOBA against lefties, it makes for a solid matchup today which will likely go under the radar.

		Chris Young
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.273	0.866	4.85%	0.371
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.417	1.383	8.33%	0.543
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Danks – LEFT		0.283	0.835	3.73%	0.363
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
0.785	0.000	$6,300	$6,500	$4,500	$70,000

Chris Young

I was beginning to fade my John Danks targeting, but then he goes and allows seven runs in his previous game. His .380 wOBA against righties is a horrible mark and I am not sure why the Yankees would ever sit Young against a lefty with his .477 wOBA this year against them. He is absolutely raking against them and while the numbers are not sustainable, Danks is a terrible pitcher and this is a great matchup.

		Adam Eaton
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.286	0.782	1.46%	0.344
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.480	1.287	4.00%	0.546
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Mitchell – RIGHT		0.214	0.670	0.00%	0.302
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
0.785	0.000	$4,000	$9,950	$4,200	$75,400

Adam Eaton

Eaton continues his run of beasting against all pitchers. On DraftKings, he has a streak of eight consecutive games in double-digit fantasy points and his price is still cheap at $4,200. He has been basically the best hitter in the majors for the last two weeks and gets an extremely solid matchup today against Mitchell. Eaton will continue to lead off and rack up the at bats so while he is hot, we should take advantage.

		Chris Davis
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.209	0.747	6.19%	0.325
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.280	1.2	16.00%	0.481
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Sanchez – RIGHT		0.214	0.608	1.99%	0.270
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
1.164	0.000	$4,000	$11,650	$4,400	$89,100

Chris Davis

Davis is hot right now and even though Sanchez has been worse against righties, he has not been great against lefties either. Davis is always a great GPP play due to his high rate of two home run games but also high rate of striking out and not doing anything. The Orioles have a 4.5 over/under tonight in a hitters park against the poor Tigers pitching and all of the Orioles are in good spots today.

Daily Batter Breakdown: Saturday, August 1st

Jung-Ho Kang

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