Daily Pitcher Breakdown: April 25th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ventura | KCR | BAL | 13 | 0.69 | 2.90 | 0.69 | 66.7% | 27.1% | 6.3% | 0.69 | 1.31 |
| Jimenez | BAL | KCR | 16 | 7.31 | 5.28 | 2.06 | 16.7% | 12.8% | 2.25 | 0.59 | |
| Wilson | LAA | NYY | 25.2 | 4.21 | 3.24 | 1.35 | 50.0% | 26.4% | 8.5% | 1.40 | 1.67 |
| Kuroda | NYY | LAA | 24.1 | 4.07 | 4.18 | 1.24 | 50.0% | 16.0% | 6.0% | 0.74 | 1.18 |
| Erlin | SDP | WAS | 11.1 | 3.18 | 2.24 | 0.99 | 33.3% | 31.1% | 2.2% | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Strasburg | WAS | SDP | 21 | 6.00 | 2.64 | 1.57 | 40.0% | 33.3% | 9.1% | 1.29 | 1.33 |
| Peavy | BOS | TOR | 18.2 | 1.93 | 3.99 | 1.21 | 75.0% | 26.0% | 13.0% | 1.45 | 0.79 |
| Buehrle | TOR | BOS | 28 | 0.64 | 3.66 | 0.93 | 75.0% | 17.4% | 4.6% | 0.00 | 1.63 |
| Alvarez | MIA | NYM | 23.2 | 2.66 | 3.84 | 1.47 | 25.0% | 13.9% | 6.9% | 0.38 | 3.50 |
| Wheeler | NYM | MIA | 17.1 | 4.67 | 3.68 | 1.52 | 25.0% | 20.0% | 6.7% | 1.04 | 1.47 |
| Bailey | CIN | ATL | 14.1 | 8.16 | 3.05 | 2.06 | 25.0% | 24.3% | 7.1% | 3.77 | 2.40 |
| Santana | ATL | CIN | 21 | 0.86 | 2.30 | 0.81 | 100.0% | 30.8% | 5.1% | 0.43 | 2.50 |
| Villanueva | CHC | MIL | 9.1 | 11.57 | 4.16 | 2.20 | 11.8% | 0.0% | 1.93 | 1.07 | |
| Garza | MIL | CHC | 26 | 4.50 | 3.92 | 1.31 | 25.0% | 17.1% | 6.3% | 1.04 | 1.48 |
| Porcello | DET | MIN | 13 | 4.15 | 3.61 | 1.15 | 66.7% | 16.0% | 4.0% | 0.69 | 2.11 |
| Correia | MIN | DET | 24.2 | 5.47 | 4.87 | 1.45 | 25.0% | 11.1% | 5.6% | 0.36 | 1.04 |
| Archer | TBR | CWS | 24.2 | 3.65 | 3.23 | 1.24 | 75.0% | 20.8% | 5.0% | 0.00 | 2.42 |
| Johnson | CWS | TBR | 17 | 6.35 | 3.95 | 1.65 | 50.0% | 19.0% | 7.6% | 0.53 | 1.37 |
| Chavez | OAK | HOU | 20 | 1.35 | 2.15 | 0.85 | 100.0% | 28.6% | 2.6% | 0.90 | 2.00 |
| Peacock | HOU | OAK | 9.2 | 7.45 | 4.41 | 2.17 | 22.5% | 16.3% | 0.00 | 1.56 | |
| Cole | PIT | STL | 19 | 4.74 | 3.86 | 1.42 | 50.0% | 19.5% | 8.5% | 1.42 | 1.81 |
| Miller | STL | PIT | 17.1 | 4.67 | 4.69 | 1.46 | 25.0% | 19.2% | 12.3% | 2.60 | 0.90 |
| Hernandez | PHI | ARI | 16.1 | 3.86 | 3.73 | 1.37 | 25.0% | 23.6% | 11.1% | 1.65 | 2.09 |
| Collmenter | ARI | PHI | 12 | 3.75 | 4.50 | 1.42 | 15.7% | 9.8% | 0.75 | 1.06 | |
| Ross | TEX | SEA | 18 | 1.00 | 3.76 | 1.22 | 25.0% | 17.3% | 10.7% | 0.50 | 3.60 |
| Elias | SEA | TEX | 22.1 | 3.22 | 4.75 | 1.36 | 25.0% | 16.3% | 12.0% | 0.81 | 1.64 |
| Lyles | COL | LAD | 23.2 | 3.04 | 3.80 | 1.16 | 50.0% | 14.7% | 6.3% | 0.38 | 2.45 |
| Beckett | LAD | COL | 9 | 4.00 | 4.61 | 1.44 | 21.4% | 14.3% | 1.00 | 1.38 | |
| Carrasco | CLE | SFG | 10.1 | 7.84 | 3.39 | 1.78 | 24.0% | 10.0% | 0.87 | 2.38 | |
| Hudson | SFG | CLE | 30 | 2.40 | 2.82 | 0.77 | 75.0% | 17.9% | 0.0% | 0.60 | 1.89 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
As if things were tense enough with big events like DraftStreet’s Big Score and DraftKings’ SweetSpot, we also have the threat of rain in the northeast corridor. That puts the games in Baltimore, NY (both sites), and Washington into some doubt.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Jesse Chavez, OAK (at HOU) – It’s criminal that Chavez is just 1-0 with numbers he’s put up. He got that win his last time out against these Astros with a 6 IP/1 ER effort that included six strikeouts. He hasn’t allowed more than 1 ER in any of his four starts, while going six innings or more in each of them, too. He had back-to-back nine strikeout efforts in Minnesota and LA which bodes well in his rematch against the AL’s highest strikeout team (25.3% K rate… second to Miami’s 25.9%).
Stephen Strasburg, WAS (v. SD) – Yes, I’m putting the guy with a 5.33 ERA in the Best Buys. He’d probably be #1 too, if it weren’t for some dodgy weather. He was underwhelming against the Braves and the Marlins pummeled him, but he bounced back brilliantly against the Cardinals and his strikeout ability is just insane.
Henderson Alvarez, MIA (at NYM) – Full disclosure: I’ve never been a fan of Alvarez. And yet, I can’t deny that he’s been mostly good this year, he closed last nicely (and I mean all of September, not just that no-hitter where Detroit couldn’t have cared less), and he’s facing the league’s worst team against righties. The Mets have a .267 wOBA against righties with a hilariously awful .099 ISO. Look for him to lean on that slider tonight as the Mets are laughably bad against righty sliders.
Tim Hudson, SF (v. CLE) – He’s gone seven-plus in each of his four outings and he’s yet to allow a walk. He’s just been really damn good so far this season. Of course, his price is commensurate with that hot start at a lot of spots (DK, for example). But he’s got a great price at DraftDay as the 15th highest starter.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Ervin Santana, ATL (v. CIN) – Santana has been amazing in three starts so far this season. He’s incorporated his changeup a lot more this season and the slider has been positively devastating. The Reds offense has been much since that dreadful first week of the season and they actually have the league’s top wOBA against righty sliders at .388 (easily out-pacing BAL’s .334). I still like Big Erv, but I couldn’t put him as a Best Buy given the threat of Cincy’s offense.
Homer Bailey, CIN (at ATL) – Is he finally coming out of it? I’m betting yes. And no, it’s not just because he rolled the Cubs because that’s not a particularly tough feat. Rather, he’s simply much better than the guy we saw in those first three outings and I’m seeing much brighter days ahead. Additionally, even with the awful start, he has 25 Ks against just 8 BBs in 20.3 IP. He’s a relative bargain compared to his talent level and this may be one of your last opportunities to get him at such a price.
Gerrit Cole, PIT (at STL) – He had his first dominant start last time out, an 8 IP/1 ER gem against Milwaukee after an unspectacular outing against Cincinnati. I still love the upside here and the Cards just haven’t been the scary offense they were in 2013. They’ll get better, but I don’t fear using Cole against them.
Zack Wheeler, NYM (v. MIA) – Wheeler only has one gem, but he has three quality starts (two of the baseline variety) among his four. He also has six strikeouts in three of his four outings. The Marlins have been better than anyone expected and yet they still don’t scare me. They are also notably awful on the road thus far at 1-11. Wheeler is probably going to be heavily used given the matchup and enticing price, so I might prefer to stay off of him in today’s huge events and instead put him in my 50-50 lineups.
Josh Beckett, LAD (v. COL) – But the Rockies have the top wOBA against righties!! That number is massively inflated by their work at home as they plummet to 28th on the road at .260 compared to their hilarious .442 at home. Beckett has put up 10 scoreless in his last two after getting knocked around by the Tigers in his debut. The big concern here is how deep he can go with efforts of 4, 5, and 5 IP thus far. He hasn’t topped 90 pitches yet, but I wonder if that count gets extended a little bit now that he’s got three starts under his belt. He’s a very intriguing gamble as a low-cost guy who isn’t likely to be widely used.
Matt Garza, MIL (v. CHC) – An outing against his former teammates is just what he needs to get back on track. He’s been a bit wobbly since that season debut against the Braves, but he’s still capable of a huge outing, especially against the lowly Cubs. This is mostly a matchup play, but obviously Garza is quite talented, too.
Robbie Ross, TEX (at SEA) – The 2.31 ERA for Ross is a bit of a mirage, especially with a 1.2 HR/9 rate, but his 2.6 K/BB ratio as a starter has impressed as I expected a bit more degradation in the K rate when shifting from the pen to rotation. The M’s have been abysmal since that first week of the season where they appeared to have offense. He dropped 7.7 scoreless IP on them back on April 15th and we’ve seen some K upside with seven and eight strikeout efforts, both in fewer than six innings. By the way, his endurance is the downside as he’s made it past 5.3 IP in only the Seattle start and that’s because he had just 2 Ks and no walks so he was only at 90 pitches through the 7.7 IP.
USE CAUTION:
Yordano Ventura, KC (at BAL) – Rain + high-octane offense + scary downside = no way. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that he also has a colossal upside with that strikeout rate, but it’s not enough to tempt me today.
Shelby Miller, STL (v. PIT) – I don’t know… I’m still nervous. He’s gotten past a pair of legitimate offenses by essentially eschewing the curveball – a pitch that has been disastrous this season. He used it 21% of the time in his first two starts, but just 12% in the last two while his fastball has gone from 64% to 80% usage. The Pirates offense isn’t particularly scary, but so is Miller’s downside. There is a nice upside-to-cost ratio as he’s been dropped down to a level that is tempting for the gamble given his strikeout upside. I’m really torn on this one to be honest.
Chris Archer, TB (at CWS) – Love the stuff, love the pitcher, love the stirrups, but I hate the matchup. He isn’t quite matchup proof in daily gaming as he proved with that trip to Baltimore. I’d never bench him in season-long, but the pool is deep enough to find a better option than Archer in Chicago tonight.
Mark Buehrle, TOR (v. BOS) – He’s been great, the Red Sox have not, and yet I’m still skeptical. Buehrle fanned 11 Rays in his season debut, but he has eight in three starts since then. He’s allowed a whopping two runs, but I just don’t see this an age-35 breakthrough for Buehrle. It’s a hot stretch that he has once or twice a year, but this time it happens to be at the start of the season so it makes folks starry-eyed about it meaning more than if it were a four-start burst in mid-June.
Rick Porcello, DET (at MIN) – I actually like him a bit at DK because of his price. The Twins have been surprisingly good thus far with the second wOBA against righties this season at .347. Now one of the ways they do that is to generate walks (13.4% BB rate – leads MLB v. RHP) and make pitchers pay, but Porcello doesn’t walk guys so he may be immune to their wiles.
C.J. Wilson, LAA (at NYY) – He should probably be off to a better start given that he’s faced SEA, HOU, and NYM already. Getting touched up by DET is excusable, but NYY is right behind the Tigers in terms of beating up on lefties (fifth in wOBA at .356) so he could have a similar outing to the 5 IP/3 ER effort in Motown.
Hiroki Kuroda, NYY (v. LAA) – I guess I’m just shying away from this whole matchup in the Bronx. The weather is sketchy enough to push me off anyway, but then both starters just carry too much risk for the price they carry at most outlets. Kuroda just hasn’t been particularly good dating back to his last eight starts last season (6.56 ERA in 46.7 IP) with underwhelming component numbers.
Jake Peavy, BOS (at TOR) – I like the surge in Ks, but little else is backing up this 3.33 ERA through four starts. Walks have been a big issue (13% BB rate) for Peavy and the Jays are a team that can exploit that weakness with a 9.6% team BB rate.
Robbie Erlin, SD (at WAS) – The Nats hold the top wOBA against lefties at .361 (tied with ATL and PHI… watch out in the NL East, lefties!) and it doesn’t help that this is the same place that Erlin was brutalized last year with 4 IP/9 ER shellacking.
Brad Peacock, HOU (v. OAK) – I like Peacock and he wasn’t awful in his first start against these same A’s (5 IP/2 ER, 4 K), but the downside can end your night. However, he’s dirt-cheap and you could pair him with your favorite ace and then stack your offense. If he hits, you’d likely gain a huge edge on the field in something like the SweetSpot at DraftKings as he won’t be widely held. If Peacock repeats his 10.5 point effort, you’re essentially trying to judge whether or not you can make up more than 10-12 points with the financial surplus that you’re putting into your offense since a solid SP night at DK is about 20 points (ex. Haren had 20.1 last night, Hutchison had 23.3).
The upshot is that you not only make up more than the 10-12 points offensively, but that Peacock throws like he did in September (3.28 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 25 Ks in 24.7 IP). I’ve spent too much time on Peacock, but I enjoy the game theory involved with these sorts of things, especially in those huge tourneys where just going with Strasburg v. SD and Chavez v. HOU isn’t really going to separate you from the pack regardless of how well each throws and then you’re left having to hit your cheap hitters since those are your only differences from everyone else who took those two.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Erik Johnson, CWS (v. TB) – I just see a fifth starter with Johnson. He’ll throw an occasional gem as he did against Boston, but I don’t see any real upside with him. Additionally, TB is fifth in wOBA against righties (.334).
Jordan Lyles, COL (at LAD) – He’s been a lot better than I thought he would be through his first four starts. I’ve stacked against him a couple times to be completely honest, yet I remain unimpressed overall. Shutting down the White Sox in Coors was nice, but trips to MIA and SD have no doubt helped. Underwhelming component numbers plus a potentially explosive offense have me staying away.
Roenis Elias, SEA (v. TEX) – I’m just not buying his start. He had three great starts – including one against these Rangers – before the Marlins popped him last time out. The underwhelming component skills leave me cold.
Josh Collmenter, ARI (v. PHI) – He’s best deployed a two, maybe three, inning reliever because once batters get that second look him, they explode. He has a 540 OPS against batters in their first PA when he’s starting and then it jumps to 839 the second time around. The Phillies have the third-most runs in the NL, probably higher than you realized.
Roberto Hernandez, PHI (at ARI) – As brutal as their record is, the D’backs still have some real punch in that lineup. They’re 1-11 at home which is just abominable and yet I just can’t find a reason to use Hernandez. He has a 20/9 K/BB ratio in 20.3 IP, but he’s finished six innings in just one of his four starts.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.
- Ubaldo Jimenez, BAL (v. KC) – I just can’t right now. At all.
- Carlos Villanueva, CHC (v. MIL)
- Carlos Carrasco, CLE (at SF)
- Kevin Correia, MIN (v. DET)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ventura | 0.274 | 3.05 | 0.305 | 3.09 | 0.272 | 0.703 | 0.161 | 2.77 | 0.133 | 98.00 | 65.3% |
| Jimenez | 0.300 | 3.59 | 0.336 | 3.86 | 0.268 | 0.689 | 0.380 | 6.76 | 0.343 | 101.00 | 61.1% |
| Wilson | 0.232 | 2.41 | 0.333 | 3.83 | 0.288 | 0.782 | 0.323 | 3.97 | 0.258 | 87.50 | 59.4% |
| Kuroda | 0.325 | 3.92 | 0.269 | 2.79 | 0.242 | 0.739 | 0.289 | 3.57 | 0.255 | 70.00 | 60.7% |
| Erlin | 0.313 | 4.71 | 0.281 | 3.93 | 0.311 | 0.939 | 0.333 | 0.87 | 0.227 | 65.33 | 65.3% |
| Strasburg | 0.281 | 3.66 | 0.273 | 3.06 | 0.241 | 0.641 | 0.396 | 3.22 | 0.27 | 94.25 | 65.8% |
| Peavy | 0.322 | 4.36 | 0.300 | 3.86 | 0.242 | 0.695 | 0.205 | 4.63 | 0.179 | 105.33 | 61.7% |
| Buehrle | 0.313 | 4.17 | 0.324 | 3.64 | 0.218 | 0.631 | 0.253 | 2.47 | 0.206 | 70.00 | 63.9% |
| Alvarez | 0.318 | 3.64 | 0.263 | 3.19 | 0.224 | 0.635 | 0.329 | 3.33 | 0.287 | 56.75 | 64.3% |
| Wheeler | 0.365 | 4.93 | 0.285 | 2.85 | 0.290 | 0.804 | 0.358 | 3.71 | 0.3 | 102.33 | 63.5% |
| Bailey | 0.352 | 4.07 | 0.267 | 3.43 | 0.242 | 0.700 | 0.429 | 7.19 | 0.369 | 98.67 | 63.2% |
| Santana | 0.296 | 2.78 | 0.283 | 3.42 | 0.259 | 0.716 | 0.245 | 1.98 | 0.176 | 61.33 | 69.6% |
| Villanueva | 0.342 | 4.83 | 0.330 | 4.78 | 0.263 | 0.718 | 0.429 | 4.90 | 0.4 | 42.75 | 68.4% |
| Garza | 0.327 | 4.01 | 0.302 | 3.87 | 0.227 | 0.628 | 0.293 | 3.92 | 0.26 | 72.00 | 70.5% |
| Porcello | 0.355 | 5.00 | 0.265 | 3.44 | 0.256 | 0.755 | 0.308 | 3.31 | 0.271 | 92.50 | 68.1% |
| Correia | 0.340 | 4.54 | 0.353 | 4.19 | 0.261 | 0.709 | 0.318 | 3.48 | 0.287 | 66.50 | 62.4% |
| Archer | 0.327 | 3.97 | 0.237 | 2.35 | 0.275 | 0.778 | 0.333 | 1.98 | 0.26 | 71.00 | 66.2% |
| Johnson | 0.447 | 5.32 | 0.230 | 3.28 | 0.258 | 0.775 | 0.382 | 3.49 | 0.31 | 104.00 | 57.4% |
| Chavez | 0.289 | 3.40 | 0.251 | 2.84 | 0.180 | 0.592 | 0.255 | 2.48 | 0.2 | 95.00 | 69.5% |
| Peacock | 0.388 | 6.49 | 0.286 | 4.00 | 0.260 | 0.773 | 0.400 | 3.28 | 0.293 | 49.50 | 59.1% |
| Cole | 0.285 | 3.45 | 0.300 | 3.29 | 0.270 | 0.735 | 0.309 | 4.71 | 0.27 | 102.00 | 67.0% |
| Miller | 0.348 | 3.93 | 0.269 | 2.55 | 0.229 | 0.670 | 0.244 | 6.77 | 0.25 | 94.33 | 62.2% |
| Hernandez | 0.392 | 6.12 | 0.315 | 4.07 | 0.258 | 0.701 | 0.250 | 4.85 | 0.219 | 98.33 | 64.4% |
| Collmenter | 0.318 | 4.06 | 0.295 | 2.94 | 0.226 | 0.618 | 0.297 | 4.08 | 0.261 | 37.20 | 65.1% |
| Ross | 0.373 | 3.41 | 0.268 | 2.50 | 0.239 | 0.628 | 0.255 | 4.02 | 0.215 | 94.67 | 60.9% |
| Elias | 0.311 | 3.38 | 0.332 | 3.18 | 0.308 | 0.824 | 0.270 | 4.51 | 0.238 | 68.75 | 61.8% |
| Lyles | 0.331 | 5.70 | 0.360 | 4.72 | 0.254 | 0.742 | 0.274 | 3.33 | 0.239 | 66.25 | 60.8% |
| Beckett | 0.367 | 5.96 | 0.335 | 3.48 | 0.280 | 0.764 | 0.250 | 5.19 | 0.206 | 87.50 | 58.3% |
| Carrasco | 0.421 | 8.80 | 0.326 | 5.29 | 0.230 | 0.676 | 0.400 | 4.04 | 0.302 | 93.00 | 59.1% |
| Hudson | 0.301 | 4.38 | 0.272 | 3.05 | 0.251 | 0.731 | 0.236 | 2.71 | 0.207 | 72.25 | 70.2% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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