Daily Pitcher Breakdown: April 3rd, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-04-04 05:17:17

Welcome to the first ever Daily Pitcher Breakdown Article. In this article I’ll break down in-depth starting pitcher stats and color code them so you can see which players you should be targeting and avoiding today based on some sabermetrics and other stats. With all 30 teams taking the field today, we have a busy slate to kick off with. Let’s dive in.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

Talent and Performance Stats

NOTE: Venue and Secondary color-coded stats can be found after the pitcher breakdown portion of the article

Ervin Santana

• The 2012 season couldn’t have gone worse for Santana as he led the world in home runs allowed with 39. While I believe he will improve on the whole (how can he not?), this is one of the worst venues for a homer prone pitcher especially considering the Sox field just two lefties in their everyday lineup and the right-handed home run park factor is 23% better.

• Santana faced the White Sox twice last year, once at each venue, and he allowed a 2.08 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in 13 IP with 14 Ks and just 2 BBs. He allowed a total of three runs on – yep, you guessed it – 3 HRs including a pair in US Cellular.

• Santana has held Paul Konerko is check for their careers yielding just a .189 AVG and 553 OPS in 43 PA with 1 HR and 9 Ks.

The other three Sox with more than 20 PA against Santana have mixed results:
Alex Rios has a .296 AVG and 702 OPS in 28 PA
Gordon Beckham has a .190 AVG, but 815 OPS in 24 PA because 2 of his 4 hits are HRs
Alexei Ramirez has .364 AVG and 891 OPS in 23 PA

Jake Peavy

• Peavy faced the Royals three times last year giving up a 5.68 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 19 IP of work with his best outing coming at home as he gave up three in a 6.7 IP. He still maintained a strong 3.0 K/BB, though.

• Billy Butler – KC’s best hitter – has led the charge with a .444 AVG, 1331 OPS, and 3 HR in his modest-but-impactful 31 PA of work.

• Jeff Francoeur has also done some damaged in 31 PA with a .367 AVG, but his 767 OPS shows it’s been more of a nickel-and-diming assault with just one extra-base hit (a double).

• Another force in the lineup, Alex Gordon, has a .364 AVG and 800 OPS against Peavy in 23 PA while shortstop Alcides Escobar only has 16 PA against him, but has made the most of them with a .375 AVG, 1250 OPS, and 2 HR.

• Peavy’s 4.08 career ERA in US Cellular is inflated by a 6.11 ERA in 63 IP back in 2011. He has a 3.27 ERA in the other 159 IP including a 3.10 in 102 IP last year.

Alexi Ogando

• Ogando has almost no work against the Astros with a whopping three career innings against them, but it’s even more scant against this iteration of the Stros as he has just seven plate appearances against guys he could face on Wednesday (four of which belong to Chris Carter – who is 0-for-2 with 2 BB).

• It has been two games – I cannot stress that enough – but the Astros have struck out in 44% of their plate appearances so far.

Philip Humber

• While he has a mere 11.3 IP against the Rangers for his career, they have been strong with a 1.59 ERA and 1.15 WHIP including six innings of one-run ball last year in his only start against them. The rest came in three relief appearances across 2009-2010.

• No Ranger has registered more than five PA against Humber totaling a .206 AVG and 485 OPS in 36 PA spread out amongst 11 batters.

Anibal Sanchez

• Sanchez faced the Twins in his fourth start with the Tigers in mid-August and they peppered him for 12 hits and five runs in just 5.3 IP as he was struggled a bit during the initial transition to the American League (7.97 ERA in his first four starts). He faced them again to close out the regular season and gave up a run on seven hits over 6.3 innings.

• Joe Mauer torched him to the tune of a 4-for-5 mark, but I strongly advise against making decision based solely on five plate appearances, however good or bad.

• The above goes against type as Sanchez has always been tougher on lefties with four straight years of improvement landing on a career-best 645 OPS against southpaws last year. Minnesota will have as many as six guys batting from the left side on Wednesday between true lefties and switch-hitters, including Mauer.

Kevin Correia

• Correia has had some success against the Tigers the last two years with a 3.38 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 18.7 IP spanning three starts. He has employed a tactic seen in basketball where you let the star get his and simply smother the others. Miguel Cabrera is 9-for-19 (.474), while the rest of the team is just 14-for-62 (.226). The rest of the hitters are 14-for-62 (.226) including Prince Fielder at 5-for-25 (.200).

Clay Buchholz

• The Yankees ripped Buchholz in a pair of outings last year including an eight run shellacking in just 1.7 innings in Yankee Stadium. All told, he had a 15.26 ERA in 7.7 IP in the two starts. Of course, that was a much different Yankee lineup last year.

• In fact, he allowed four homers in that October 1st season-capper in Yankee Stadium and three of the four bombs are gone are shelved: Russell Martin (solo), Mark Teixeira (2-run), and Curtis Granderson (2-run).

• Robinson Cano had the fourth continuing his torrid pace against Buchholz: .480 AVG, 1240 OPS, 1 HR, and 4 2B in 25 PA.

• Vernon Wells (29) and Lyle Overbay (26) are the Yankees with the most PA against him now and they are hitting a combined .229 against him.

Hiroki Kuroda

• Kuroda faced the Sox a whopping five teams last year in his Yankees debut and posted a 3.60 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 5.3 K/BB rate (21 K, 4 BB) in 35 innings.

• They couldn’t touch him in the three home starts, either: 1.96 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 23 IP.

• Cano’s counterpart, Dustin Pedroia, also fares well against Wednesday’s starter with a .429 AVG and 1181 OPS, though his 15 PA sample is even smaller. The rest of the team is just 20-for-89 (.225 AVG).

Edwin Jackson

• Jackson threw seven strong in PNC Park last year with the Nats allowing just two runs on a pair of solo shots in a 5-4 loss. He has handled the Pirates regardless of venue throughout his career with a 4-0 record, 3.03 ERA, and 1.27 WHIP in 38.7 IP spanning six starts.

• No Pirate hitter has more than 16 PA against Jackson despite his decade-long career spanning several teams. And the owner of those 16 PA is backup utility fielder John McDonald (he’s 5-for-15, by the way).

• Andrew McCutchen is 3-for-11 (.273 AVG) with deuces wild as he has two homers, RBIs, strikeouts, and walks.

Wandy Rodriguez

• Wandy terrorized the Cubs in three outings last year posting a 2.25 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 6.0 K/BB in 20 IP. For his career he has a 3.74 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 2.5 K/BB over 137.3 IP.

• Wandy hadn’t had much success in PNC Park prior to joining the club last year. He had a 4.95 ERA in 53 IP as an Astro through 2011 before putting up a 3.47 ERA in 49 IP, 41.3 of which came as a Pirate.

• Known lefty killer Scott Hairston (career 825 OPS vs. LHP; 704 vs. RHP) has built some of that resume off of Wandy with a .368 AVG and 1271 OPS in 21 PA that includes five of his seven hits going for extra bases (3 2B, 2 HR).

• Alfonso Soriano has no fun against Wandy. He paces the team with 44 PA against the lefty and hasn’t gotten much going outside of his one homer posting a .122 AVG and 377 OPS.

Kevin Slowey

• Slowey didn’t pitch in the majors last year and all of his work has come in the AL so there isn’t much to go off of for him. He has one insignificant start against the Nats back in 2008 where he went six allowing just one run (on a homer, of course).

• The current Nats have just 10 PA against Slowey, nine of which are “Kurt Suzuki(player-profile)”:/players/Kurt_Suzuki-10265’s (3-for-9 with a bomb).

Gio Gonzalez

• Despite posting a brilliant 19-to-0 K/BB rate in his two starts against the Marlins last year, Gonzalez was actually 0-2 against them despite giving up just six runs in the 14 IP (3.86 ERA).
  Of course, a fully revamped Marlins lineup has left just 65 PA against Gonzalez on the team including 24 new ones in the forms of Placido Polanco (.308 in 14 PA) and Juan Pierre (.300 in 10 PA). Something tells me Gonzalez isn’t afraid of either.

• For those wondering, Giancarlo Stanton is 0-for-3 and those PA came in the 2011 interleague start when Gonzalez was with Oakland.

Ubaldo Jimenez

• Toronto teed off on Jimenez last year with a 9.64 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in two starts spanning just 9.3 IP. Would you believe Jimenez threw seven innings of two-run ball in one of the two starts? The other was an eight-run destruction in Toronto.

• Colby Rasmus is the only current Jay with more than 20 PA against Jimenez and he’s made the most of them with a .368 AVG and 1060 OPS including three doubles and a triple among his seven hits over 21 PA.

Brandon Morrow

• Morrow has mixed success against the Indians over his career with seven shutout (two unearned) innings last year, but 5.28 ERA in 30.7 IP otherwise.

• That said, current Indians have nothing on Morrow with a combined .202 AVG and 668 OPS in 97 PA including “Nick Swisher(player-profile)”:/players/Nick_Swisher-10524’s .160 AVG and 530 OPS in 28 PA.

C.J. Wilson

• Wilson has a nothing sample of 2.3 relief IP against the Reds pitched back in 2007.

• Unsurprisingly, his largest PA total comes against former American Leaguer Shin-Soo Choo who hasn’t done much in 13 PA (.182 AVG, 762 OPS).

Mat Latos

• Latos has never faced the Angels and his work against current Angels is tied up in former National Leaguers Albert Pujols (8 PA), Chris Iannetta (7 PA), and Tommy Hanson (2 PA). The three have a .214 AVG and 853 OPS with Iannetta popping a homer.

Wei-Yin Chen

• Chen had the Rays’ number last year. He didn’t face anybody more often posting an excellent 2.97 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 33.3 IP over five starts. Proving how fluky wins can be, he was just 1-3 in those outings.

• The two Rays he has faced the most are on opposite ends of the spectrum:
  1) Ben Zobrist has a .467 AVG and 1133 OPS in 16 PA (7 hits including a homer)
  2) Desmond Jennings has a .000 AVG and .077 OPS in 13 PA with a lone walk the only success.

Jeremy Hellickson

• Helix has dominated the O’s to the tune of a 2.30 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 70.3 IP over his three years. Even last year during their big playoff run, the O’s managed a paltry 2.38 ERA off of him including a 2.81 at Tropicana Field.

• Of the four current O’s with 20+ PA against Helix, only Adam Jones has overwhelming success with a .321 AVG and 1023 OPS including 3 HR on nine hits. J.J. Hardy (30 PA), Nick Markakis (27 PA), and Matt Wieters (22 PA) have combined for a .229 AVG and 731 OPS, though Markakis does have two bombs.

Roy Halladay

• After dominating the Braves through 2011 (1.78 ERA in 50.7 IP), they turned the tables big time in 2012 leaving him with an 11.21 ERA in 17.7 IP across four starts. Mix in his rough spring and this looks like a stay away while we see if Halladay and get himself right.

• Several current Braves have had their way with him:
  1) B.J. Upton has a .357 AVG and 940 OPS in 48 PA
  2) Dan Uggla has a .324 AVG and 1019 OPS in 35 PA (w/3 HR)
  3) Freddie Freeman has a .467 AVG and 1567 OPS in 18 PA (also w/3 HR)

• Jason Heyward has a meager .176 AVG and 634 OPS in his 18 PA, though.

Paul Maholm

• The Phillies have ripped Maholm in his career (5.16 ERA in 52.3 IP) including last year (8.64 ERA in 8.3 IP) when he was a much-improved pitcher.

• Jimmy Rollins (25 PA) and Ryan Howard (22 PA) are the only two with 20+ PA against him, but they have been integral to that 5.16 ERA hitting just .227 and .238, respectively.

Clayton Richard

• Richard fit his season-long pattern in his two starts against the Mets, too. He gave up one run in seven innings at home, but four in six on the road. I wouldn’t trust him outside of Petco Park.

• None of the current Mets have topped 20 PA against him with “David Wright(player-profile)”:/players/David_Wright-10427’s 15 checking in at the top of the list (.250 AVG, 733 OPS).

Matt Harvey

• Oddly enough, Harvey’s worst start last year was in Petco Park against the Padres when he allowed five in five while also striking out five. That doesn’t deter me from utilizing him against this muted lineup missing its best player (Chase Headley).

Juan Nicasio

• Nicasio had a start against Milwaukee back in 2011 and he shut them down for seven innings allowing no runs on four hits with four strikeouts. That’s not enough to sway me on using him today.

Wily Peralta

• Peralta has 29 career IP in the majors so of course he doesn’t have any meaningful data against the Rockies. He did start his career against them with a relief inning where he allowed three hits and a run.

Lance Lynn

• Lynn has thrown eight shutout innings against the D’Backs the last two years with three in relief in 2011 and then five during a start last year. He has 10 Ks, too.

Brandon McCarthy

• McCarthy has never faced the Cards.

Joe Saunders

• Saunders has a lengthy track record against the A’s dating back to his days with the Angels. He has a 13-5 record, 3.39 ERA, and 1.30 WHIP in 122 IP, including a 3.00 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 12 IP last year.

• Now here’s the rub. Despite all that work, only 74 PA are still on this A’s team and 29 belong to Coco Crisp (who has a .286 AVG and 882 OPS).

Tommy Milone

• Milone is a different pitcher in Oakland posting a 2.74 ERA there last year compared to 4.83 on the road.

• Throw in a Mariners club that he dominated last year (2.64 ERA, 1.21 WHIP in 30.7 IP) and you have yourself a worthwhile starter for Wednesday’s games.

• Additionally Milone, who is not a strikeout guy (17% career K rate), posted a 26% K rate against the M’s last year.

Tim Lincecum

• Lincecum has a career 2.81 ERA and 1.27 WHIP against the Dodgers in 118.7 IP and while you may be thinking that was all banked before last year, he was actually even better against them last year with a 2.63 ERA in 24 IP. His 1.38 WHIP wasn’t pretty, but he wiggled out trouble when he had to against his divisional foes.

• The heart of LA’s lineup has all faced Lincecum at least 45 times:
  1) Andre Ethier has a .279 AVG and 843 OPS in 48 PA (w/2 HR)
  2) Matt Kemp has a .214 AVG and 530 OPS in 48 PA
  3) Adrian Gonzalez has a .190 AVG and 435 OPS in 45 PA

Josh Beckett

• Beckett’s career 3.66 ERA and 1.14 WHIP against the Dodgers were damaged in last year’s lone outing against them when he allowed four runs and 10 base runs in 6.3 IP. That said, all of the excellent work was done in 2005 and before resulting in exactly no current Giants having 20+ PA against Beckett.