Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 23rd, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Performance and Talent Statistics: August 23rd, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miley | ARI | 156.2 | 3.56 | 3.99 | 1.31 | 48.0% | 17.9% | 8.0% | 1.03 | 1.90 | |
| Hamels | PHI | 172.0 | 3.61 | 3.58 | 1.19 | 61.5% | 21.7% | 5.8% | 0.89 | 1.15 | |
| Deduno | MIN | 99.0 | 3.82 | 4.18 | 1.35 | 50.0% | 13.5% | 8.5% | 0.64 | 3.00 | |
| Jimenez | CLE | 128.1 | 4.00 | 4.39 | 1.45 | 33.3% | 21.9% | 12.5% | 1.05 | 1.18 | |
| Straily | OAK | 113.0 | 4.22 | 4.21 | 1.25 | 45.0% | 19.4% | 8.0% | 0.96 | 0.85 | |
| Norris | BAL | 149.0 | 3.93 | 4.47 | 1.44 | 44.0% | 17.3% | 8.4% | 0.79 | 1.00 | |
| Kuroda | NYY | 160.1 | 2.41 | 3.68 | 1.05 | 60.0% | 18.2% | 4.6% | 0.67 | 1.57 | |
| Archer | TBR | 88.1 | 2.95 | 4.37 | 1.11 | 53.3% | 17.3% | 8.4% | 1.02 | 1.25 | |
| Fister | DET | 161.1 | 3.63 | 3.38 | 1.25 | 52.0% | 17.9% | 4.6% | 0.61 | 2.41 | |
| Matsuzaka | NYM | Season Debut | |||||||||
| Chacin | COL | 155.1 | 3.24 | 4.27 | 1.22 | 54.2% | 15.0% | 6.6% | 0.35 | 1.67 | |
| Koehler | MIA | 102.1 | 4.66 | 4.35 | 1.39 | 25.0% | 16.6% | 8.8% | 0.88 | 1.57 | |
| Gallardo | MIL | 134.2 | 4.68 | 4.22 | 1.45 | 33.3% | 17.6% | 9.0% | 0.87 | 1.82 | |
| Bailey | CIN | 164.0 | 3.68 | 3.21 | 1.14 | 52.0% | 24.1% | 5.5% | 0.88 | 1.38 | |
| Gonzalez | WAS | 151.2 | 3.38 | 3.68 | 1.25 | 64.0% | 24.4% | 9.6% | 0.83 | 1.34 | |
| Chen | KCR | 77.2 | 2.20 | 4.56 | 1.08 | 85.7% | 17.1% | 6.7% | 0.81 | 0.49 | |
| Perez | TEX | 75.0 | 3.48 | 4.12 | 1.29 | 50.0% | 16.4% | 6.9% | 1.08 | 1.69 | |
| Sale | CWS | 165.1 | 2.78 | 2.95 | 1.07 | 60.9% | 26.2% | 5.4% | 0.76 | 1.50 | |
| Redmond | TOR | 43.1 | 3.32 | 3.52 | 1.11 | 28.6% | 24.3% | 6.6% | 1.45 | 0.63 | |
| Peacock | HOU | 48.1 | 5.59 | 4.60 | 1.45 | 25.0% | 19.9% | 11.6% | 2.05 | 0.71 | |
| Medlen | ATL | 148.0 | 3.71 | 3.91 | 1.32 | 37.5% | 18.1% | 6.0% | 1.03 | 1.45 | |
| Wainwright | STL | 189.2 | 2.66 | 2.90 | 1.04 | 53.8% | 23.3% | 3.4% | 0.47 | 1.93 | |
| Richards | LAA | 99.2 | 4.24 | 3.42 | 1.27 | 33.3% | 17.0% | 6.0% | 0.72 | 2.56 | |
| Hernandez | SEA | 178.2 | 2.47 | 2.90 | 1.10 | 69.2% | 25.7% | 5.4% | 0.60 | 1.79 | |
| Lackey | BOS | 139.2 | 3.22 | 3.41 | 1.22 | 59.1% | 21.3% | 5.5% | 1.16 | 1.64 | |
| Nolasco | LAD | 157.2 | 3.60 | 3.89 | 1.24 | 42.3% | 18.8% | 5.9% | 0.91 | 1.28 | |
| Jackson | CHC | 138.0 | 4.89 | 3.99 | 1.42 | 29.2% | 17.9% | 8.1% | 0.65 | 2.00 | |
| Volquez | SDP | 141.2 | 5.72 | 4.43 | 1.62 | 38.5% | 17.9% | 10.3% | 0.83 | 1.63 | |
| Morton | PIT | 68.2 | 3.67 | 3.09 | 1.33 | 33.3% | 17.6% | 5.8% | 0.66 | 4.00 | |
| Bumgarner | SFG | 163.0 | 2.87 | 3.48 | 1.02 | 64.0% | 24.2% | 7.7% | 0.72 | 1.29 | |
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Adam Wainwright, STL (v. ATL) – Waino has gone fewer than seven innings just twice in his last 17 outings posting a 2.74 ERA in 125 IP and a 5.5 K/BB ratio in that time. One of those starts, about a month ago on July 26th, was against the Braves and he went 7 IP/3 ER with eight strikeouts, but took a loss in the 4-1 game. I think he gets his offensive support this time around and pulls a win against his former organization.
Doug Fister, DET (at NYM) – Remember when Fister had back-to-back 6 ER outings? Yeah, me neither. He has a 2.63 ERA in 46.3 IP since then spanning seven starts along with a 3.0 K/BB ratio, too. The Mets offense has tanked after a big July and I’m sure it’s no coincidence that they also lost their best player, David Wright in the interim. Their .298 wOBA against righties this month is 24th in MLB.
Wade Miley, ARI (at PHI) – Miley has the eighth-best ERA since July 1st at 2.04 in nine starts. He gets a Philly team that has been terrible against lefties all year, but especially so this month with a league-worst .185 wOBA.
Gio Gonzalez, WAS (at KC) – Gonzalez didn’t let the Tigers derail his entire season. They hung a 10-spot on him, but he got off the mat and posted a 2.00 ERA in 18 IP over his next three with 16 strikeouts, including a pair of 7 IP/2 ER outings against Atlanta. The Royals don’t really hit that well in general, but they are particularly weak against southpaws.
Madison Bumgarner, SF (v. PIT) – As horrible as the Marlins are, they have hung a pretty poor outing on several pitchers including Matt Harvey and Bumgarner. MadBum was saddled with a 5 IP/3 ER outing his last time allowing nine base runners and fanning just three in Miami. Despite that outing and the fact that the Pirates actually hit lefties a good bit, I’m sticking by Bumgarner. He has quietly posted a 2.82 ERA this year including a 2.40 ERA in 75 IP at home.
Felix Hernandez, SEA (v. LAA) – Hernandez lost a 7-0 lead against the Angels back in late-June, but came back about a month later and threw eight scoreless against them. He’s got two brilliant and two horrid starts this month and one of the horrid ones was last time out against Texas (5 IP/5 ER). Even with 11 ER in 10 IP in the two poor starts this month, he still has a 2.62 ERA this year. He’s amazing. He costs an arm and a leg, but he’s almost always worth it.
Hiroki Kuroda, NYY (at TB) – The AL ERA leader hasn’t faced these division foes yet and boy are they in for a treat. Boston is the only team to get to him lately hanging a 5.7 IP/3 ER outing on him with 11 hits and yet even with that included he has a 1.34 ERA in his last eight starts since July 7th. In fact, that ERA is second to only Clayton Kershaw by just 0.02 for MLB’s best. I’ve been hammering this point home anywhere I can: he’s the most underrated pitcher in baseball.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Chris Sale, CWS (v. TEX) – Which lefty has been more quietly amazing, Sale or Bumgarner? Both are stuck on poor teams which are the only reason their dominance has been quiet. Unfortunately that tamps down their W-L records which hurts their daily fantasy value. But don’t look now, Sale is on a 3-game winning streak. The Rangers are smashing lefties this month with an MLB-best .372 wOBA so I bumped Sale down a tier, but I still expect him to perform well against them.
Chris Archer, TB (v. NYY) – OK, so maybe he just needed those extra four days. After leaving a start with forearm tightness, Archer came back five days later and got knocked around by Seattle which made me nervous for him against Toronto four days later, but he trounced them with a 7 IP/1 ER outing that included five strikeouts. The Yankees are hitting this month (Alfonso Soriano!), but Archer shut them out just under a month ago. I’m not entirely sold on the Yankees offense, especially because their super-stud, Soriano, does his best work against lefties.
Cole Hamels, PHI (v. ARI) – Whether it’s his fault or not (and it’s mostly not), we can’t ignore the horrid W-L record that Hamels has been saddled with this year. He doesn’t get offensive support and his team hits horribly against lefties and they are facing one today so Hamels will almost have to be perfect to get himself in line for a win. With that in mind, it’s hard to invest given the sky-high price. He’s almost best as a secondary option, but you can’t really spend top dollar on a secondary option. If you play at a site that doesn’t rely heavily on wins for big scores, Hamels becomes a much more friendly option.
Homer Bailey, CIN (v. MIL) – Oh boy, here we go. Bailey showed that tantalizing upside last time out with an 8 IP/1 ER/8 K outing and it came against these very same Brewers he’ll face today. And yet anyone who has invested in him knows the feeling of trepidation tied to doing so. Back in July, the Brewers hung a 5.7 IP/4 ER on him and in June it was 7 IP/6 ER, so who knows? Now, their offense was much different then and it’s been muted in August so I’m more confident than normal here, but I wish I could get the daily fantasy outlets to build in a WTF discount with Bailey just because he will still get trounced for 5-6 ER in an outing he had no business losing let alone getting absolutely obliterated in.
Martin Perez, TEX (at CWS) – It’s only a four-start run so I’m careful not to overreact, but I think we’re seeing why he was so highly touted as a prospect. In these last four he has a 2.12 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 3-0 record, and 24 Ks in 29.7 IP. The White Sox have been abysmal against lefties this year, though around league average for the month. I’ll trust the larger sample.
Garrett Richards, LAA (at SEA) – I’ve pumped the Mariners a lot lately because they have mostly deserved it, but they haven’t hit righties at home this month with a .253 wOBA. Richards inexplicably had his worst outing of the year against Houston (6 IP/5 ER, 12 hits), but he still managed seven strikeouts. I’d prefer him as a secondary option, but if you want a budget guy as your one and only, he has some risk/reward potential.
Charlie Morton, PIT (at SF) – He has bounced back brilliantly from his destruction at the hands of the Cardinals (6 IP/5 ER) with a 2.70 ERA in 20 IP across three starts. There is no reason it shouldn’t continue with a trip to San Francisco where the Giants have put up the third-worst wOBA against righties this month at .258.
Todd Redmond, TOR (at HOU) – Far and away his best start of the season was against HOU: 6 IP/1 ER with three hits allowed and 10 strikeouts. Of course he was saddled with a no-decision because his offense couldn’t muster some runs for him.
Edwin Jackson, CHC (at SD) – He’s wildly inconsistent and it is beyond maddening, but I like him here as a cheap secondary option. The Padres knocked him around in Wrigley back in late-April, but he’s better and they’re worse right now.
Jhoulys Chacin, COL (v. MIA) – This is about the only matchup where you would start Chacin at home. His strikeout rate dips from 19% to 12% at home and his ERA jumps up from 2.14 to 4.00, but again, it’s the Marlins.
USE CAUTION:
John Lackey, BOS (at LAD) / Ricky Nolasco, LAD (v. BOS) – Where’s the upside with either guy here? It’s the second and third ranked offenses by wOBA against righties for the month and while both guys are having solid seasons – in fact, Lackey’s has been great – there are just too many better options to invest in with lower risk.
Kris Medlen, ATL (at STL) – You know who the Red Sox and Dodgers are behind offensively against righties this month? Yep, the Cards. Medlen has improved from his hit-fest back in July, but I’m still leery.
Bruce Chen, KC (v. WAS) – The Nats have the second-worst wOBA against lefties for the season, but lately they have been smashing them ranking fifth in baseball at .359. Chen had been brilliant leading into his start against Detroit which was insanely surprising and so now we’re left wondering if the six starts were real or if the Tigers brought him back to earth. Just be careful.
Yovani Gallardo, MIL (at CIN) – Perhaps if Gallardo could just face the Reds all year he’d be having a great season. He has a 1.65 ERA against them in three starts, but he’s paired it with a 1.22 WHIP and 1.4 K/BB ratio, neither of which is good.
Ubaldo Jimenez, CLE (v. MIN) – Credit where due: he has a 4.00 ERA this year. And yet, I’m still entirely unfazed. He has a 1.8 K/BB ratio and 1.45 WHIP.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Dan Straily, OAK (at BAL) / Bud Norris, BAL (v. OAK) – I’m just avoiding this matchup. Both guys have been too inconsistent and it’s in a hitter-friendly ballpark with two offenses known to get loose. Similar to the BOS/LAD game, where is the upside? Not here.
Samuel Deduno, MIN (at CLE) – There’s talent, but it’s not all there yet. He’s not missing enough bats and with a full slate there is no reason to bother.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.
- Tom Koehler, MIA (at COL)
- Edinson Volquez, SD (v. CHC)
- Daisuke Matsuzaka, NYM (v. DET)
ADVANCED METRICS: August 23rd, 2013
| VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS | OPP vs L/R | OTHER ADVANCED STATS | |||||||||||
| PITCHER | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% | ||
| Miley | 0.319 | 4.01 | 0.329 | 3.49 | 0.234 | 0.681 | 0.292 | 4.09 | 0.256 | 98.04 | 63.0% | ||
| Hamels | 0.316 | 4.73 | 0.317 | 3.33 | 0.265 | 0.724 | 0.298 | 3.39 | 0.247 | 104.35 | 67.1% | ||
| Deduno | 3.09 | 4.91 | 0.249 | 0.722 | 0.289 | 4.14 | 0.259 | 98.75 | 61.1% | ||||
| Jimenez | 0.310 | 3.58 | 0.352 | 4.61 | 0.239 | 0.698 | 0.287 | 4.33 | 0.237 | 97.88 | 60.5% | ||
| Straily | 0.336 | 5.17 | 0.284 | 3.40 | 0.271 | 0.774 | 0.278 | 3.96 | 0.239 | 89.00 | 65.0% | ||
| Norris | 0.375 | 5.26 | 0.294 | 2.50 | 0.245 | 0.712 | 0.320 | 3.87 | 0.274 | 94.65 | 64.2% | ||
| Kuroda | 0.306 | 2.76 | 0.247 | 2.07 | 0.251 | 0.733 | 0.268 | 3.17 | 0.231 | 99.40 | 63.9% | ||
| Archer | 0.344 | 4.03 | 0.214 | 1.47 | 0.243 | 0.685 | 0.232 | 4.33 | 0.211 | 93.67 | 62.9% | ||
| Fister | 0.291 | 3.84 | 0.339 | 3.38 | 0.236 | 0.680 | 0.318 | 3.28 | 0.269 | 104.20 | 64.7% | ||
| Matsuzaka | 0.284 | 0.786 | |||||||||||
| Chacin | 0.331 | 3.89 | 0.276 | 2.73 | 0.233 | 0.618 | 0.291 | 3.17 | 0.251 | 94.88 | 64.9% | ||
| Koehler | 0.335 | 5.81 | 0.335 | 3.76 | 0.267 | 0.754 | 0.302 | 4.11 | 0.265 | 76.05 | 61.8% | ||
| Gallardo | 0.349 | 4.75 | 0.328 | 4.66 | 0.247 | 0.714 | 0.309 | 4.00 | 0.266 | 97.21 | 60.1% | ||
| Bailey | 0.336 | 3.98 | 0.251 | 3.43 | 0.249 | 0.706 | 0.299 | 3.13 | 0.240 | 102.92 | 67.2% | ||
| Gonzalez | 0.215 | 1.85 | 0.330 | 3.95 | 0.258 | 0.684 | 0.283 | 3.44 | 0.224 | 103.56 | 62.0% | ||
| Chen | 0.341 | 3.13 | 0.249 | 1.86 | 0.221 | 0.641 | 0.243 | 3.75 | 0.216 | 49.88 | 65.8% | ||
| Perez | 0.362 | 3.38 | 0.312 | 3.56 | 0.243 | 0.661 | 0.283 | 4.17 | 0.255 | 92.17 | 64.0% | ||
| Sale | 0.190 | 1.96 | 0.304 | 3.02 | 0.266 | 0.739 | 0.293 | 2.86 | 0.226 | 108.78 | 66.9% | ||
| Redmond | 0.275 | 3.00 | 0.345 | 3.72 | 0.234 | 0.669 | 0.257 | 4.29 | 0.220 | 75.00 | 63.3% | ||
| Peacock | 0.432 | 7.66 | 0.297 | 3.47 | 0.254 | 0.749 | 0.254 | 5.96 | 0.239 | 74.67 | 59.3% | ||
| Medlen | 0.335 | 4.11 | 0.336 | 3.39 | 0.284 | 0.764 | 0.306 | 3.91 | 0.267 | 94.20 | 65.7% | ||
| Wainwright | 0.272 | 2.99 | 0.284 | 2.32 | 0.255 | 0.745 | 0.308 | 2.39 | 0.243 | 105.19 | 67.4% | ||
| Richards | 0.323 | 4.01 | 0.290 | 4.79 | 0.251 | 0.736 | 0.300 | 3.44 | 0.260 | 40.92 | 63.0% | ||
| Hernandez | 0.299 | 2.85 | 0.276 | 2.10 | 0.273 | 0.759 | 0.309 | 2.55 | 0.238 | 103.46 | 64.2% | ||
| Lackey | 0.286 | 2.90 | 0.362 | 3.64 | 0.272 | 0.732 | 0.301 | 3.73 | 0.256 | 99.36 | 65.5% | ||
| Nolasco | 0.336 | 4.19 | 0.293 | 3.01 | 0.285 | 0.816 | 0.297 | 3.64 | 0.255 | 97.85 | 62.5% | ||
| Jackson | 0.350 | 5.79 | 0.322 | 4.26 | 0.242 | 0.672 | 0.316 | 3.59 | 0.267 | 94.21 | 60.2% | ||
| Volquez | 0.365 | 6.35 | 0.348 | 5.11 | 0.243 | 0.704 | 0.333 | 4.06 | 0.282 | 97.00 | 60.7% | ||
| Morton | 0.395 | 6.29 | 0.290 | 2.28 | 0.262 | 0.702 | 0.329 | 3.70 | 0.277 | 85.83 | 63.8% | ||
| Bumgarner | 0.222 | 2.52 | 0.276 | 3.03 | 0.258 | 0.735 | 0.243 | 3.16 | 0.195 | 103.24 | 63.5% | ||
- Opp Avg vs. L/R – Opponent Batting Average vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- Opp OPS vs. L/R – Opponent On Base + Slugging Percentage vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- wOBA-L and wOBA-R – Pitcher Weighted On Base Percentage Against vs. Left/Right Handed Batters
- ERA-L and ERA-R – Pitcher Earned Run Average against Left/Right Handed Batters
- BABIP – Pitcher Batting Average Against on Balls In Play
- FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
- Pit/G – Average Pitches Thrown Per Game
- Strk% – Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Starting Pitcher Salaries: August 23rd, 2013
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window