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Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 28th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-08-28 17:58:20

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: August 28th, 2013

PLAYER PERFORMANCE TALENT
PITCHER TM IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Alvarez MIA 63.0 3.86 4.37 1.21 40.0% 13.2% 6.6% 0.14 1.96
Strasburg WAS 156.0 3.00 3.19 1.06 56.0% 25.9% 7.5% 0.87 1.59
Gorzelanny MIL 80.0 3.60 3.55 1.21 33.3% 23.6% 9.1% 1.24 1.25
Morton PIT 76.1 3.42 3.17 1.30 38.5% 17.0% 5.6% 0.59 3.69
Straily OAK 116.1 4.56 4.32 1.28 42.9% 19.1% 8.5% 1.08 0.83
Fister DET 167.2 3.54 3.40 1.26 53.8% 17.7% 4.7% 0.59 2.43
Kuroda NYY 166.1 2.71 3.73 1.08 57.7% 18.0% 4.5% 0.87 1.51
Redmond TOR 46.2 4.44 3.55 1.26 25.0% 24.9% 7.5% 1.54 0.61
Richards LAA 107.0 3.95 3.43 1.24 40.0% 16.9% 6.1% 0.67 2.58
Archer TBR 95.1 2.93 4.35 1.09 56.3% 17.1% 8.3% 0.94 1.32
Masterson CLE 182.1 3.50 3.38 1.20 55.6% 24.0% 9.3% 0.64 2.43
Maholm ATL 123.2 4.51 4.07 1.40 42.9% 15.9% 7.2% 0.95 2.14
Norris BAL 153.2 4.22 4.44 1.47 42.3% 17.7% 8.5% 0.88 0.98
Lackey BOS 147.2 3.17 3.43 1.18 60.9% 21.4% 5.3% 1.16 1.50
Hamels PHI 179.0 3.62 3.61 1.18 59.3% 21.4% 5.7% 0.85 1.13
Matsuzaka NYM 5.0 9.00 4.60 1.40 0.0% 18.2% 4.6% 3.60 0.40
Cosart HOU 45.0 1.60 4.99 1.18 71.4% 11.9% 11.9% 0.20 2.52
Sale CWS 172.1 3.08 2.98 1.08 58.3% 25.9% 5.3% 0.94 1.47
Duffy KCR 9.2 1.86 3.95 1.24 50.0% 24.4% 12.2% 0.00 1.83
Albers MIN 30.0 3.00 4.69 0.87 50.0% 9.8% 2.7% 0.60 1.22
Bailey CIN 170.0 3.71 3.26 1.15 50.0% 23.9% 5.6% 0.90 1.33
Wainwright STL 198.2 2.58 2.87 1.03 55.6% 23.5% 3.2% 0.45 1.90
Bumgarner SFG 171.0 2.84 3.56 1.04 61.5% 23.8% 7.9% 0.74 1.28
Chacin COL 162.1 3.22 4.29 1.22 56.0% 15.1% 7.0% 0.39 1.67
Erlin SDP 22.2 7.15 4.61 1.50 50.0% 16.0% 8.0% 1.59 0.82
Miley ARI 162.2 3.60 4.01 1.30 46.2% 17.6% 8.0% 1.05 1.96

STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

BEST BUYS:

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.

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Stephen Strasburg, WAS (v. MIA) – The last time he faced the Marlins, they smashed him for 7 ER in just two innings of work and yet he still draws a top spot today because, well, the Marlins are terrible. Plus, he does have seven shutout innings against the Marlins on his record from his season opener so it’s not like they’ve owned him all year. Strasburg has a 29% K rate and 5.5% BB rate since the All Star break. He’s logged at least eight strikeouts in four of his seven starts and one of those was shortened to just an inning as he was ejected for throwing behind Andrelton Simmons.

Chris Sale, CWS (v. HOU) – Two of the very best pitchers in baseball are facing two of the very worst offenses in baseball today so they will both be popular choices. Of course, that also means that there will be a lot of cancelling out when it comes to pitching scores. Sale faced the Stros in Houston earlier this season and threw eight strong with two runs allowed, neither earned, which was enough to saddle him with a loss. He fanned 14 and walked just one in that June outing.

Hiroki Kuroda, NYY (at TOR) – Baseball’s most underrated starting pitcher has been modest with his title the last two times out allowing 10 ER in 11.7 IP of work, but that only pushed his ERA from 2.33 to 2.71 which actually strengthens the claim of his underrated-ness. The Jays are a tough offense, especially at home, but not for Kuroda. At least not this year, he has a 1.69 ERA and 0.66 WHIP against them in three starts spanning 21.3 IP, though he hasn’t faced them since mid-May. By the way, the four homers he allowed to TB last time out are the only four he’s allowed in nine starts.

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Doug Fister, DET (v. OAK) – Fister is surging since the break with a 2.31 ERA going at least six innings in each of his seven starts. The strikeouts haven’t really been there with a 17% rate, but his 5.7% BB rate has definitely helped. Even with their hammering of Verlander yesterday, the A’s are still just 26th in wOBA against righties the last two weeks at .287.

GOOD BUYS:

This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.

Adam Wainwright, STL (at CIN) – Waino hasn’t had much trouble with his divisional foe this year going 14 IP with a 2.57 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in his two starts against them this year. He also has a 13/3 K/BB ratio in those two starts. He’s been brilliant in August with a 2.40 ERA in four starts, going at least seven in each of them and logging 31 Ks in 30 IP.

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Justin Masterson, CLE (at ATL) – I liked Salazar yesterday, but he only lasted four innings as the Indians have been prone to babying him a bit with extended rest and a quick hook. Their ace won’t get the same treatment so I like him even more against a team that has struggled to hit righties lately and has struck out a ton against them all year. In the last two weeks, only the Mariners have been worse against righties from a wOBA standpoint with the Braves checking in at .261.

Chris Archer, TB (v. LAA) – Archer looks healed from his forearm soreness. After allowing 5 ER in his first start after the diagnosis, he’s thrown back-to-back 7 IP gems allowing just three total earned runs to the Jays and Yankees. So in his last six non-forearm soreness-affected outings, he’s gone at least seven innings and posted a 1.57 ERA over 46 IP.

Danny Duffy, KC (at MIN) – The Royals finally jettisoned Wade Davis back to the pen and gave Duffy his spot. Duffy has huge strikeout potential as we saw in his 2013 debut against the Twins when he fanned 7 in 3.7 IP of work. He ran his pitch count up to 93 in that outing so the Royals had to pull him, but he followed it up with six scoreless innings of one-hit ball against the Tigers. He’s ready to contribute and he’s still dirt-cheap at the outlets where he is available.

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Wade Miley, ARI (v. SD) – Miley’s been on fire for quite some time with a 2.66 ERA in the last three months, but the Padres have done some damage against the bad Miley including a 3.7 IP/7 ER destruction from late-May. They are generally better against lefties this year, but lately they’ve even struggled against them with a .290 wOBA in the last two weeks.

Garrett Richards, LAA (at TB) – Richards was oddly smacked around by the Astros two starts ago allowing 12 hits and 5 ER in his six innings, but he did manage seven strikeouts because it’s still the Astros. He rebounded with 7.3 scoreless innings against the Mariners and now he gets a Rays team that has been hitting righties pretty well, but I still like him. Even with the Astros outing, he still has a 3.15 ERA for the month. I really like him today as his price remains incredibly low.

Charlie Morton, PIT (v. MIL) – Morton has rebounded beautifully from a 6 IP/5 ER shelling from the Cards to post a 2.28 ERA in his last four, including a 6 IP/2 ER gem in St. Louis. He needs to be on point with his control and make sure he’s not giving out free passes because he relies on contact being turned into outs. His hit totals can be high as we’ve seen even in this four-game stretch of quality work where he’s allowed 6, 7, 7, and 7 hits, but if he doesn’t allow walks and scatters the hits, he can avoid big trouble. I like him best as a secondary option today.

USE CAUTION:

John Lackey, BOS (v. BAL) – Lackey has faced Baltimore twice first posting a 7 IP/2 ER outing, but most recently going 6.3 IP/5 ER against his divisional foe thanks to three homers. He gets them at home this time where he has been brilliant (2.07 ERA in 61 IP), but I’d still be cautious.

Madison Bumgarner, SF (at COL) – We saw Bumgarner suffer his worst outing of the year in Coors back in May (4.7 IP/7 ER), but then he bounced back on a return trip in June (7 IP/1 ER) so we don’t have much to draw from leaving him as someone to be cautious with today.

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Cole Hamels, PHI (at NYM) – The Mets used to own Hamels. It wasn’t until his fifth year that he finally had a season under south of 4.00 against them. He was 0-4 in 2010, but had a 3.20 ERA in 25.3 IP. It jumped right back up to 6.86 the next year. He’s at 4.76 in three outings this year with a 1.59 WHIP and 1.6 K/BB ratio.

Jarred Cosart, HOU (at CWS) – Call me crazy, but I’m still not sold on Mr. 1.0 K/BB ratio. He doesn’t strike anyone out and he still walks too many batters. The White Sox aren’t very good offensively, but I’m still not sold. Be very careful.

I’m fully out on the rest of the slate today, but if you have any questions on specifically why for any of them, let me know:

ADVANCED METRICS: August 28th, 2013

VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS OPP vs L/R OTHER ADVANCED STATS
PITCHER wOBA L ERA L wOBA R ERA R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Alvarez 0.363 5.19 0.258 2.92 0.253 0.711 0.286 3.11 0.248 89.20 65.5%
Strasburg 0.312 4.19 0.261 2.11 0.232 0.619 0.263 3.30 0.208 97.00 63.4%
Gorzelanny 0.281 2.33 0.317 4.27 0.260 0.740 0.268 4.07 0.225 30.49 63.5%
Morton 0.383 5.40 0.289 2.33 0.251 0.713 0.325 3.62 0.276 85.62 63.9%
Straily 0.346 5.81 0.285 3.45 0.286 0.787 0.276 4.22 0.240 88.52 64.4%
Fister 0.288 3.80 0.344 3.24 0.244 0.710 0.321 3.26 0.271 104.50 64.6%
Kuroda 0.318 3.23 0.253 2.13 0.255 0.748 0.269 3.45 0.237 99.58 63.8%
Redmond 0.293 3.46 0.391 5.66 0.244 0.687 0.293 4.41 0.243 75.00 62.8%
Richards 0.312 3.55 0.287 4.72 0.253 0.739 0.294 3.39 0.255 42.13 62.9%
Archer 0.339 4.12 0.216 1.34 0.270 0.753 0.230 4.24 0.208 94.63 62.9%
Masterson 0.322 4.01 0.239 2.84 0.253 0.737 0.285 3.36 0.222 104.81 63.1%
Maholm 0.251 2.51 0.378 5.24 0.263 0.751 0.306 4.15 0.271 96.14 63.2%
Norris 0.385 5.71 0.294 2.58 0.282 0.807 0.326 3.98 0.279 95.19 64.2%
Lackey 0.284 2.93 0.345 3.45 0.271 0.777 0.291 3.70 0.249 99.26 65.7%
Hamels 0.309 4.75 0.318 3.34 0.245 0.693 0.297 3.36 0.246 103.89 67.2%
Matsuzaka 0.100 0.00 0.589 19.29 0.254 0.702 0.267 7.23 0.286 86.00 67.4%
Cosart 0.255 0.95 0.298 2.81 0.253 0.691 0.231 3.79 0.205 104.29 57.9%
Sale 0.186 2.08 0.314 3.38 0.246 0.697 0.290 3.14 0.229 108.75 67.0%
Duffy 0.280 4.50 0.285 1.17 0.251 0.708 0.280 2.83 0.200 94.50 57.7%
Albers 0.258 2.16 0.235 3.32 0.260 0.688 0.221 3.57 0.213 101.00 65.8%
Bailey 0.341 4.03 0.251 3.45 0.284 0.766 0.298 3.18 0.240 102.88 67.2%
Wainwright 0.266 2.93 0.280 2.23 0.251 0.723 0.306 2.32 0.240 106.07 67.4%
Bumgarner 0.220 2.50 0.279 3.00 0.260 0.706 0.244 3.24 0.197 103.77 63.4%
Chacin 0.324 3.75 0.282 2.80 0.261 0.701 0.287 3.25 0.248 95.20 64.8%
Erlin 0.414 7.88 0.323 6.75 0.264 0.718 0.306 4.98 0.283 70.50 64.3%
Miley 0.319 4.08 0.328 3.51 0.254 0.734 0.288 4.16 0.255 98.54 63.1%

Starting Pitcher Salaries: August 28th, 2013

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About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.