Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 8th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archer | TBR | CHC | 131.2 | 3.42 | 3.84 | 1.31 | 55.0% | 20.9% | 9.1% | 0.41 | 1.65 |
| Wada | CHC | TBR | 21.2 | 3.32 | 3.93 | 1.34 | 20.7% | 8.7% | 0.42 | 1.24 | |
| Masterson | STL | BAL | 104 | 5.63 | 4.04 | 1.65 | 36.8% | 20.3% | 12.3% | 0.52 | 3.00 |
| Tillman | BAL | STL | 143 | 3.78 | 4.61 | 1.31 | 42.9% | 15.4% | 8.4% | 0.88 | 1.06 |
| Kennedy | SDP | PIT | 140.1 | 3.59 | 3.31 | 1.23 | 47.6% | 25.7% | 8.1% | 0.71 | 1.16 |
| Worley | PIT | SDP | 55.2 | 2.43 | 3.99 | 1.10 | 40.0% | 14.3% | 4.0% | 0.65 | 1.54 |
| Colon | NYM | PHI | 146.1 | 4.12 | 3.72 | 1.18 | 42.1% | 18.2% | 3.3% | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| Burnett | PHI | NYM | 151.1 | 4.16 | 4.15 | 1.38 | 38.1% | 18.8% | 10.0% | 0.77 | 1.78 |
| Bauer | CLE | NYY | 96.1 | 4.20 | 3.98 | 1.42 | 38.5% | 21.3% | 8.4% | 1.03 | 0.73 |
| Rogers | NYY | CLE | 24.2 | 5.84 | 3.14 | 1.50 | 23.6% | 7.3% | 1.82 | 0.91 | |
| Sanchez | DET | TOR | 120.1 | 3.37 | 3.61 | 1.06 | 41.2% | 20.5% | 6.0% | 0.30 | 1.31 |
| Dickey | TOR | DET | 152 | 4.03 | 3.99 | 1.28 | 47.6% | 19.8% | 8.0% | 1.18 | 1.11 |
| Eovaldi | MIA | CIN | 143 | 4.22 | 4.01 | 1.22 | 50.0% | 16.5% | 5.0% | 0.69 | 1.20 |
| Leake | CIN | MIA | 153.2 | 3.46 | 3.41 | 1.24 | 45.0% | 18.4% | 5.1% | 0.88 | 2.11 |
| Strasburg | WAS | ATL | 151.1 | 3.39 | 2.66 | 1.21 | 52.4% | 28.2% | 5.3% | 0.83 | 1.48 |
| Santana | ATL | WAS | 138 | 3.59 | 3.50 | 1.25 | 38.9% | 22.1% | 7.3% | 0.59 | 1.58 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | KCR | 154 | 3.21 | 3.15 | 1.18 | 47.6% | 24.2% | 5.9% | 0.70 | 1.41 |
| Vargas | KCR | SFG | 129.1 | 3.69 | 4.15 | 1.24 | 68.4% | 16.1% | 5.4% | 0.97 | 1.08 |
| Hernandez | LAD | MIL | 121 | 3.87 | 4.71 | 1.35 | 35.3% | 14.2% | 10.4% | 0.82 | 1.80 |
| Lohse | MIL | LAD | 150.2 | 3.40 | 3.95 | 1.15 | 50.0% | 17.5% | 5.0% | 0.90 | 1.05 |
| Mikolas | TEX | HOU | 33.1 | 7.29 | 4.51 | 1.53 | 14.6% | 7.3% | 0.81 | 1.23 | |
| Oberholtzer | HOU | TEX | 90.2 | 4.17 | 4.43 | 1.38 | 41.7% | 14.9% | 5.4% | 0.69 | 0.83 |
| Matzek | COL | ARI | 59.1 | 5.31 | 4.54 | 1.50 | 25.0% | 14.2% | 7.7% | 0.76 | 1.35 |
| Anderson | ARI | COL | 73.1 | 3.19 | 3.91 | 1.30 | 40.0% | 20.5% | 8.1% | 1.35 | 1.15 |
| Gibson | MIN | OAK | 121.1 | 3.93 | 4.17 | 1.21 | 52.6% | 13.3% | 6.4% | 0.59 | 1.93 |
| Kazmir | OAK | MIN | 135.1 | 2.53 | 3.40 | 1.06 | 63.2% | 22.0% | 5.8% | 0.73 | 1.32 |
| Webster | BOS | LAA | |||||||||
| Weaver | LAA | BOS | 150.1 | 3.59 | 4.24 | 1.18 | 52.4% | 18.8% | 7.4% | 1.08 | 0.68 |
| Quintana | CWS | SEA | 142.1 | 3.04 | 3.58 | 1.23 | 50.0% | 21.3% | 7.2% | 0.38 | 1.52 |
| Iwakuma | SEA | CWS | 125.1 | 2.94 | 3.02 | 0.99 | 60.0% | 20.9% | 2.3% | 0.93 | 1.63 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Stephen Strasburg WAS (at ATL) / Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (v. CWS)/ Madison Bumgarner SF (at KC) – These are our three super-studs of the day. You don’t really need any sort of convincing one way or the other with them. If you want to spend the big bucks, they are there for you. All three have solid matchups and massive upside.
Jered Weaver LAA (v. BOS) – Weaver’s price should probably skyrocket at home, but thankfully it doesn’t! He’s still an ace at home with a 2.66 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 3.1 K:BB ratio in 84.7 IP, but he’s more of a backend arm on the road at 4.80 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and 2.0 K:BB ratio in 65.7 road IP. Despite adding Yoenis Cespedes at the deadline, the Red Sox are scoring just 3.5 runs per game so far this month, albeit in just six games. Although, it’s not like their 3.8 runs per game average in the four months before that was particularly impressive.
Jose Quintana CWS (at SEA) – He had a pair of rough starts in early June allowing 10 ER in 10.3 IP against the Angels and Royals, but he has been on fire since then with a 1.69 ERA in his last nine starts along with 56 Ks in 58.7 IP of work. He’s allowed more than 2 ER just once in this span (7 IP/3 ER at BOS) and he’s gone at least 6 IP in seven of the nine outings. The Mariners have the second-worst OPS against lefties at .637, ahead of just San Diego (unsurprisingly).
Ian Kennedy SD (at PIT) – Kennedy is that rare San Diego arm who doesn’t excel at home. He’s not exactly bad in Petco, especially with his 9.9 K9 and 3.4 K:BB ratio, but his 4.00 ERA there is well above his 3.18 ERA on the road. Kennedy, a long-time home run machine, has sliced his rate to an impressive 0.7 HR/9 this year. Kennedy hasn’t gone fewer than 5 IP in any of his 23 starts and he’s allowed 3 or fewer ER in 16 of the starts.
Scott Kazmir OAK (v. MIN) – Kazmir threw a bone to his original organization, allowing 7 ER in just 3 IP against the Mets back on June 24th (no, I don’t believe he threw them a bone… I’m very much kidding), but since then he’s allowed just 9 ER in six starts (2.17 ERA) with 34 Ks and just 10 walks in 37.3 IP. The Twins sit 24th in OPS against lefties at .690.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Anibal Sanchez DET (at TOR) – Sanchez’s inconsistency has been annoying because his talent is obvious when you watch him pitch. And the upside of that talent was seen his last time out when he allowed just two hits in seven scoreless against the Rockies with 12 strikeouts. He’s had a lot of one-bad-inning syndrome this year, which has been the culprit behind several of his shaky starts. I don’t want to overstate his “struggles”, though, he still has a 3.37 ERA in 120.3 IP with a healthy 3.4 K:BB ratio, though he did enter July with a 2.63 ERA so the struggles have definitely been recent. I’m still betting on the talent. He’s getting the Jays at the right time, too (2.2 RPG in six August games, 1-5 record).
Ervin Santana ATL (v. WAS) – Santana opened with an amazing April (1.95 ERA), but then gave it back with a terrible May (5.75 ERA) before leveling out in his last two months-plus with a 3.15 ERA in 74.3 IP with 66 Ks and a 3.0 K:BB ratio. Despite leading the division at 62-51, the Nats don’t really hit righties all that well. They’re just below average with a .690 OPS (.701 is average) and Santana still has big upside, especially with his strikeout potential (three double-digit K games, five others of 7+ Ks).
Mike Leake CIN (v. MIA) – Leake is quietly having a fantastic season. His 3.46 ERA is actually a tick up from last year’s 3.37, but the skills are far more supportive of this figure (3.68 FIP, compared to 4.04 a year ago). His 7.0 K9 is a career-best as is his 1.9 BB9 which obviously makes his 3.6 K:BB ratio his best yet, too. He was strong against the Marlins last time out (6 IP/1 ER) and now he gets them on the road where they have been markedly worse against right-handers (.663 OPS, compared to .712 at home).
Vance Worley PIT (v. SD) – Worley has been quite good in his eight starts with the Pirates with a 2.18 ERA in 53.7 IP. His 5.2 K9 is thoroughly unimpressive, but six innings of great ratios (he’s gone at least 6 IP in seven of eight) has plenty of use even if you aren’t getting a ton of punchouts. And now he gets the Padres.
Chris Tillman BAL (v. STL) – He had a 5.20 ERA in first 13 starts as he started appearing in the Stayaway section of this column. He has somehow completely turned it around in his last 11 starts with a 2.38 ERA in 72 IP, but I’ve been a bit skeptical about rejoining the party because of his modest component numbers. His 2.0 K:BB ratio has been sustained by just 20 walks in the 72 IP during these 11 starts as he has meager 40 strikeouts. He’s still been able to find success because of a 0.5 HR/9 rate, which may well be his best rate for a sustained period of time (1.3 HR/9 career rate). I like that he has six strikeouts in three of his last four outings, good for 21 strikeouts in 24.7 IP of work.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Bartolo Colon NYM (at PHI) – Big Bart can’t seem to avoid that massive implosion outing. He has six starts of 5+ ER, including 9 and 7 ER disasters earlier in the season. And yet, he also has 11 starts of 2 or fewer ER, going at least 7 IP in 10 of those starts. I just can’t quit him.
Brett Oberholtzer HOU (v. TEX) – Oberholtzer was really impressive in 2013 with a 2.76 ERA in 71.7 IP (10 starts, 3 relief app.) thanks to walking next-to-nobody and plenty of weak airborne contact. Things didn’t go quite as smoothly to start 2014 and he had a 5.62 ERA after six starts in April thanks in large part to a pair of 6 ER outings that closed out the month. He’s been the Oberholtzer we saw last year since then, walking nobody while also striking out very few batters, but yielding strong results. His 3.38 ERA in nine starts since May 6th is more befitting of his skills than the 2.76 ERA we saw last year. He already dominated the Rangers for a 7 IP/1 ER (and 7 Ks) gem back in April when they were actually a whole team. He should be able to cut up this carcass of a major league team and stay hot (3.00 ERA in his last four, including two starts against OAK).
Jason Vargas KC (v. SF) – It seems like that night-ruining dud is always looming with Vargas (5 starts of 5+ ER this year), but he has allowed more than 2 ER just once in his other 15 starts making him worthy of the gamble even with that substantial downside.
Trevor Bauer CLE (at NYY) – He is finally showing glimpses of his upside at the major league level, making him an intriguing option despite some severe volatility. Are you getting the guy who went 6.7 scoreless against the White Sox with 10 Ks or the one who went 4.1 IP/5 ER against Seattle just two starts ago? There isn’t much rhyme or reason to his successes and failures so make sure you’re ready for anything, but his price is at a level where his big games bring huge value. He already has a 7 IP/2 ER gem against the Yankees and while they have added reinforcements since that July 6th outing, they still aren’t an offense that anyone fears.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Esmil Rogers NYY (v. CLE)
- Justin Masterson STL (at BAL)
- Roberto Hernandez LAD (at MIL) – He almost earned a spot in the value plays because frankly he’s been great of late with a 1.88 ERA in his last four starts, but he succeeds with a destruction of lefties – something the Brewers lack throughout their lineup.
- Allen Webster BOS (at LAA)
- Tyler Matzek COL (at ARI)
- Miles Mikolas TEX (at HOU)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archer | 0.280 | 3.08 | 0.315 | 3.84 | 0.232 | 0.666 | 0.305 | 3.25 | 0.243 | 98.14 | 20.9% |
| Wada | 0.376 | 4.70 | 0.266 | 0.747 | 0.317 | 3.23 | 0.253 | 93.50 | 20.7% | ||
| Masterson | 0.412 | 7.00 | 0.305 | 4.14 | 0.256 | 0.717 | 0.351 | 4.04 | 0.277 | 90.15 | 20.3% |
| Tillman | 0.312 | 3.33 | 0.307 | 4.31 | 0.250 | 0.678 | 0.270 | 4.26 | 0.242 | 99.25 | 15.4% |
| Kennedy | 0.295 | 2.66 | 0.310 | 4.38 | 0.260 | 0.740 | 0.307 | 3.11 | 0.235 | 103.91 | 25.7% |
| Worley | 0.299 | 3.24 | 0.258 | 1.76 | 0.226 | 0.635 | 0.270 | 3.46 | 0.243 | 85.00 | 14.3% |
| Colon | 0.293 | 3.95 | 0.321 | 4.32 | 0.240 | 0.658 | 0.298 | 3.51 | 0.261 | 99.68 | 18.2% |
| Burnett | 0.357 | 5.40 | 0.300 | 3.19 | 0.235 | 0.670 | 0.291 | 4.10 | 0.245 | 101.50 | 18.8% |
| Bauer | 0.325 | 4.57 | 0.346 | 3.91 | 0.247 | 0.692 | 0.326 | 3.99 | 0.269 | 102.00 | 21.3% |
| Rogers | 0.471 | 6.55 | 0.267 | 5.27 | 0.262 | 0.749 | 0.343 | 4.76 | 0.287 | 26.50 | 23.6% |
| Sanchez | 0.244 | 2.51 | 0.288 | 4.62 | 0.271 | 0.778 | 0.269 | 2.72 | 0.217 | 99.50 | 20.5% |
| Dickey | 0.319 | 3.33 | 0.323 | 4.59 | 0.271 | 0.747 | 0.275 | 4.34 | 0.239 | 105.08 | 19.8% |
| Eovaldi | 0.348 | 4.71 | 0.255 | 3.62 | 0.243 | 0.674 | 0.296 | 3.51 | 0.258 | 98.96 | 16.5% |
| Leake | 0.367 | 4.41 | 0.279 | 2.79 | 0.246 | 0.690 | 0.302 | 3.68 | 0.26 | 98.91 | 18.4% |
| Strasburg | 0.281 | 2.62 | 0.320 | 3.98 | 0.241 | 0.663 | 0.341 | 2.74 | 0.254 | 99.38 | 28.2% |
| Santana | 0.346 | 3.89 | 0.261 | 3.26 | 0.241 | 0.687 | 0.316 | 3.12 | 0.252 | 97.71 | 22.1% |
| Bumgarner | 0.262 | 2.27 | 0.303 | 3.50 | 0.261 | 0.692 | 0.309 | 2.94 | 0.243 | 100.42 | 24.2% |
| Vargas | 0.312 | 2.43 | 0.313 | 4.13 | 0.248 | 0.702 | 0.291 | 3.99 | 0.261 | 102.15 | 16.1% |
| Hernandez | 0.299 | 2.68 | 0.322 | 4.81 | 0.259 | 0.730 | 0.256 | 4.62 | 0.232 | 85.74 | 14.2% |
| Lohse | 0.296 | 3.44 | 0.294 | 3.38 | 0.265 | 0.737 | 0.274 | 3.70 | 0.242 | 99.04 | 17.5% |
| Mikolas | 0.306 | 8.10 | 0.364 | 6.08 | 0.228 | 0.666 | 0.325 | 4.07 | 0.288 | 90.33 | 14.6% |
| Oberholtzer | 0.292 | 2.95 | 0.338 | 4.54 | 0.274 | 0.756 | 0.322 | 3.62 | 0.284 | 94.33 | 14.9% |
| Matzek | 0.277 | 3.46 | 0.375 | 5.83 | 0.261 | 0.709 | 0.327 | 4.10 | 0.29 | 83.55 | 14.2% |
| Anderson | 0.273 | 2.70 | 0.381 | 3.60 | 0.279 | 0.768 | 0.286 | 4.47 | 0.25 | 93.00 | 20.5% |
| Gibson | 0.320 | 3.57 | 0.256 | 4.32 | 0.254 | 0.732 | 0.271 | 3.71 | 0.245 | 89.67 | 13.3% |
| Kazmir | 0.264 | 2.25 | 0.276 | 2.61 | 0.253 | 0.701 | 0.271 | 3.23 | 0.223 | 95.00 | 22.0% |
| Webster | 0.256 | 0.721 | |||||||||
| Weaver | 0.320 | 3.83 | 0.260 | 3.22 | 0.243 | 0.685 | 0.260 | 4.16 | 0.23 | 97.21 | 18.8% |
| Quintana | 0.284 | 4.38 | 0.285 | 2.56 | 0.245 | 0.637 | 0.308 | 2.84 | 0.244 | 106.30 | 21.3% |
| Iwakuma | 0.307 | 3.48 | 0.229 | 2.42 | 0.260 | 0.735 | 0.279 | 3.14 | 0.239 | 94.50 | 20.9% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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