Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 24th, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Performance and Talent Statistics: July 24th, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liriano | PIT | 81.0 | 2.44 | 3.43 | 1.23 | 61.5% | 24.9% | 9.5% | 0.44 | 2.11 | |
| Strasburg | WAS | 115.1 | 2.97 | 3.41 | 1.13 | 57.9% | 24.4% | 8.1% | 0.78 | 1.59 | |
| Nolasco | LAD | 129.2 | 3.75 | 3.88 | 1.25 | 42.9% | 18.6% | 5.5% | 0.83 | 1.27 | |
| Rogers | TOR | 77.1 | 3.84 | 4.09 | 1.33 | 44.4% | 16.2% | 7.0% | 1.16 | 1.57 | |
| Hudson | ATL | 123.2 | 4.08 | 3.83 | 1.20 | 40.0% | 17.0% | 6.5% | 0.73 | 2.03 | |
| Hefner | NYM | 110.0 | 3.93 | 3.97 | 1.22 | 57.9% | 18.5% | 6.1% | 1.31 | 1.21 | |
| Price | TBR | 87.0 | 4.03 | 3.49 | 1.22 | 53.8% | 20.3% | 4.2% | 1.24 | 1.37 | |
| Doubront | BOS | 105.1 | 3.76 | 4.02 | 1.39 | 44.4% | 21.6% | 10.1% | 0.68 | 1.42 | |
| Pettitte | NYY | 104.2 | 4.47 | 4.09 | 1.36 | 29.4% | 16.6% | 6.2% | 0.95 | 1.50 | |
| Garza | TEX | 71.0 | 3.17 | 3.80 | 1.14 | 63.6% | 21.2% | 6.8% | 1.01 | 1.03 | |
| Sanchez | DET | 98.0 | 2.85 | 3.08 | 1.19 | 56.3% | 28.2% | 7.9% | 0.46 | 1.32 | |
| Danks | CWS | 69.2 | 4.52 | 3.77 | 1.12 | 27.3% | 17.5% | 2.9% | 1.81 | 1.15 | |
| Chen | BAL | 60.2 | 2.67 | 4.87 | 1.20 | 50.0% | 14.0% | 7.0% | 0.45 | 0.75 | |
| Santana | KCR | 130.1 | 3.18 | 3.63 | 1.07 | 52.6% | 20.0% | 5.4% | 1.10 | 1.43 | |
| O’Sullivan | SDP | 7.0 | 6.43 | 5.01 | 2.14 | 0.0% | 14.7% | 11.8% | 0.00 | 1.43 | |
| Lohse | MIL | 121.1 | 3.49 | 4.19 | 1.15 | 42.1% | 15.5% | 3.9% | 1.41 | 0.98 | |
| Lannan | PHI | 52.2 | 3.76 | 4.29 | 1.27 | 44.4% | 12.6% | 5.8% | 0.34 | 1.98 | |
| Westbrook | STL | 81.1 | 2.88 | 4.91 | 1.40 | 53.8% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 0.33 | 2.81 | |
| Turner | MIA | 59.0 | 2.44 | 4.34 | 1.17 | 55.6% | 17.2% | 8.4% | 0.46 | 1.37 | |
| De La Rosa | COL | 115.1 | 3.12 | 4.33 | 1.28 | 55.0% | 16.5% | 8.7% | 0.55 | 1.76 | |
| Samardzija | CHC | 131.1 | 3.91 | 3.50 | 1.28 | 50.0% | 24.4% | 8.6% | 1.03 | 1.54 | |
| Kennedy | ARI | 114.0 | 5.29 | 4.33 | 1.39 | 36.8% | 18.7% | 8.6% | 1.26 | 0.93 | |
| Leake | CIN | 122.2 | 2.79 | 4.13 | 1.13 | 57.9% | 15.3% | 5.6% | 1.03 | 1.58 | |
| Gaudin | SFG | 71.0 | 2.15 | 3.68 | 1.07 | 57.1% | 22.1% | 8.1% | 0.51 | 1.00 | |
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Wei-Yin Chen, BAL (at KC) – Chen has been brilliant in a pair of starts since returning from the DL despite both coming against a potent (at least on paper) Rangers offense. He has a 7 IP/1 ER outing at home against them and then a 6.3 IP/1 ER outing in Texas his last time out. A trip to KC will be a welcomed reprieve from a pressure standpoint and while he’s only made 10 starts this year, one has come against the Royals and he held them to two earned in 6.3 IP back on May 7th.
Kyle Lohse, MIL (v. SD) – Lohse has just one shaky outing in his last 10 (6.3 IP/5 ER v. ARI because he allowed 3 HR) posting a 2.63 ERA over 61.7 IP. He really only gets in trouble when he allows the longball so an outing against the Padres sets up nicely as they have just the fourth-fewest homers against righties this year with just 58. They’re scoring just 3.4 R/G this month, too.
Mike Leake, CIN (at SF) – Home runs have been a bit of an issue for Leake of late as he’s allowed six in three starts this month en route to a 4.26 ERA, but he’s still 2-1. I’d be more worried about the homers if he weren’t headed to SF where the ball doesn’t carry well and his opponent has just 47 homers against righties – second-worst in baseball. He’s gone fewer than six innings in two of the three starts, but I think he gets back on track in a big way tonight.
Anibal Sanchez, DET (at CWS) – Sanchez is looking to avenge a rough outing against these White Sox back on July 11th just before the All-Star break. They got to him for five runs, four earned in 5.3 IP of work. He struck out six, but allowed seven hits and an uncharacteristic three walks. If there is any trepidation with him, it’s that those control issues continued in his first outing after the break when he walked five Royals. He only allowed one run in six innings, but I think he’s working out some kinks. He missed most of June with an injury and has just three starts since returning.
Tim Hudson, ATL (at NYM) – Hudson has been rolling in the summer with a 2.77 ERA in June and July spanning nine starts during which he’s gone at least seven innings in seven of nine starts. He hasn’t allowed more than four in any outing and he even won one of the two outings where he gave up exactly four. He’s on a three-game winning streak, too. The Mets are hitting much better of late, but Hudson has stymied them twice this year including on June 17th when they scored just one earned in 7.3 IP and then before that on May 5th when he held them to three earned, also in 7.3 IP.
Jeff Samardzija, CHC (at ARI) – The Shark was sinking a bit and facing a trip to Coors Field so I wanted to see how it went before backing him again. He was very sharp going 7.3 IP and allowing just one run while striking out six. The D’Backs can pack a punch in their lineup, but I’m ready to trust Samardzija again. He struck out 11 D’Backs back on June 1st going 6.3 IP and allowing three earned in a no-decision. The best part about Samardzija is that even when he has a tough outing, he’s going to rack up the strikeouts to mitigate the damage, but I think he is set up for another strong outing against the D’Backs.
Chad Gaudin, SF (v. CIN) – Gaudin has been amazing for the Giants, but unfortunately, he’s only made up for the failures of Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum instead being a surplus to what should’ve been a good rotation. He’s getting better, too, as he threw his best outing of the season last time out going seven shutout innings against the D’Backs allowing just three hits with eight strikeouts. He’s now 4-0 with a 2.23 ERA as a starter in 40.3 IP.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Stephen Strasburg, WAS (v. PIT) – He was really sharp in his outing against a hot Dodgers team after getting trounced by the Marlins as his mechanics looked smooth for the first time in three starts (he lost his feel in the Padres outing on July 7th, too). When he faced the Pirates back on May 4th, he made two mistakes allowing two-run homers to Clint Barmes and Starling Marte, but he still went seven and fanned eight. The Nats offense is in the tank again so his support may be shaky, especially against a tough opponent on the mound for the Pirates.
Francisco Liriano, PIT (at WAS) – Liriano sputtered for really the first time all year against Cincinnati in his last outing, but his reward for that is a start against the league’s worst team v. LHP according to OPS (621, 19 points worse than CWS). Factor in that the Nats are also on a five-game losing streak plus just 2-10 in their last 12 and you see that he’s catching them at a perfect time. Facing Strasburg cuts the win probability for both, but this is a nice bounce back setup for Liriano.
Matt Garza, TEX (v. NYY) – His price has skyrocketed at most outlets as he’s been on fire and now has the support of a real offense though they haven’t exactly been ripping it up since June. The Yankees offense is trash so I like the setup for his debut, but the price jump is disappointing as I enjoyed Garza as a bargain with top-level potential.
Ervin Santana, KC (v. BAL) – Santana bounced back from his worst outing of the year (8 ER in 5 IP v. NYY just before the break) with a great outing against the Tigers. He went 7.3 IP allowing just two hits and holding them scoreless. Santana has allowed just three homers in his last nine outings and that’s usually his Achilles heel (he allowed 7 in the two starts just before this nine start stretch). He threw a baseline quality start against the O’s back on May 7th without allowing a home run, garnering a no-decision against his opponent today, Wei-Yin Chen.
David Price, TB (at BOS) – Price’s streak of brilliance was snapped in Toronto as three homers led to a 4 ER outing, but he still went seven and got the win. He gets a second straight tough outing in Boston and he will be hoping to match teammate Matt Moore, who posted a two-hit shutout against them on Monday. Price still looked more like his vintage self in the Toronto outing than the struggling Price we saw throughout April and May so I still feel good about him overall, but this is a tough spot especially since his teammates have a tough opponent themselves.
Felix Doubront, BOS (v. TB) – Few pitchers are hotter than Doubront in the last two months. He has a 2.59 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in his last 12 starts having allowed three or fewer earned in each outing. That run includes two starts against these Rays, one was a 5 IP/2 ER outing on May 16th and the other was an 8 IP/0 ER gem on June 18th. It’s going to be tough sledding for those looking for a win from their pitcher today as we could see quite a few no-decisions.
Jorge de la Rosa, COL (v. MIA) – DLR has actually been a tick better at home with a 2.96 ERA and 2.3 K/BB at Coors Field compared to a 3.25 ERA and 1.7 K/BB on the road. Of course it’s always tough to back a pitcher in that park, but it is still the Marlins offense. They’re scoring 3.0 R/G this month.
Jeremy Hefner, NYM (v. ATL) – Wasn’t that fun last time out? Hefner was bludgeoned to death by the Phillies and ended up allowing eight earned in just two innings while singlehandedly ending the night for many daily gamers. I recommended as the top pick that night and so I was one of those gamers. Or so I thought. Thankfully I had Brad Miller get loose for 2 HR and somehow salvage my night. To be honest, after the Hefner debacle, I didn’t check scores against the rest of the night until after midnight only to be surprised by the results. Anyway, no one cares how I did in my games. Despite the shellacking, I’m not burying Hefner. He’d been excellent for an extended amount of time and he was facing a modest Phillies offense. The outing only serves to depress his price now and I won’t be afraid to go back to the well.
USE CAUTION:
Jacob Turner, MIA (at COL) – He’s been unquestionably excellent this year from a results standpoint netting a 2.44 ERA in his first nine starts of the season, but the component skills are a little light. His 17% strikeout and 8% walk rates are below the 19% and 7% league averages and he’s garnering a lot of success from an 81% LOB rate which is tough to sustain over the long-term (league average is 72%). But honestly, this is mostly about the venue. I do like that he has a 47% groundball rate and has limited homers brilliantly this year, but Coors Field is only about homers. The park inflates all hit types with its spacious dimensions so it’s a dangerous venue for any pitcher.
John Danks, CWS (v. DET) – I like Danks a decent bit overall, but the Tigers destroy lefties and they were able to trounce southpaw Hector Santiago (6 R, though only 3 ER) even without Miguel Cabrera last night. There’s just no upside when you’re picking someone against the Tigers.
Andy Pettitte, NYY (at TEX) – He’s just been so “blah” this year. He’s given up at least four runs in eight of his last night, though some was due to shoddy defense in a few of the games so he has some 3 ER games mixed in. More importantly and worse yet, he’s allowed at least six hits in eight of nine, too. Texas is not a spot to get well when you’re struggling.
Ricky Nolasco, LAD at Esmil Rogers, TOR – I’ve avoided this series all week and I’ll continue to do so as the two teams are just teeing off on each other in the launching pad that is the Rogers Centre. Both Nolasco and Rogers have been good this year, but the downside is too big to mess with either here. The Dodgers are the hottest team going and while the Jays can’t win a game (5-13 in July), they’re still putting up 4.4 R/G this month including 5.1 at home.
Ian Kennedy, ARI (v. CHC) – I realize it’s the Cubs, but Kennedy is just not good this year. He hasn’t won since facing Samardzija and the Cubs back on June 1st and he still allowed four earned in seven innings. He has a 6.11 ERA in 45.7 IP since then.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
John Lannan, PHI (at STL) – The Cards are only 14th in OPS v. LHP for the season (708), but they’re surging with an 884 mark in the last calendar month.
Jake Westbrook, STL (v. PHI) – The 2.88 ERA is a total mirage. He’s pitched more like a 5.00 ERA pitcher than a 3.00 ERA one.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
- Sean O’Sullivan
ADVANCED METRICS: July 24th, 2013
| VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS | OPP vs L/R | OTHER ADVANCED STATS | |||||||||||
| PITCHER | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% | ||
| Liriano | 0.165 | 1.56 | 0.306 | 2.17 | 0.212 | 0.621 | 0.295 | 2.80 | 0.223 | 95.69 | 61.8% | ||
| Strasburg | 0.314 | 3.97 | 0.278 | 2.26 | 0.243 | 0.702 | 0.274 | 3.41 | 0.217 | 97.89 | 62.6% | ||
| Nolasco | 0.337 | 4.36 | 0.283 | 3.14 | 0.251 | 0.742 | 0.304 | 3.50 | 0.260 | 99.29 | 62.5% | ||
| Rogers | 0.342 | 3.19 | 0.314 | 4.41 | 0.263 | 0.715 | 0.294 | 4.37 | 0.266 | 38.88 | 62.7% | ||
| Hudson | 0.304 | 4.91 | 0.291 | 3.14 | 0.234 | 0.682 | 0.283 | 3.56 | 0.246 | 94.95 | 65.1% | ||
| Hefner | 0.369 | 4.63 | 0.248 | 2.44 | 0.254 | 0.744 | 0.275 | 4.27 | 0.248 | 86.85 | 64.0% | ||
| Price | 0.288 | 4.42 | 0.329 | 3.90 | 0.257 | 0.734 | 0.312 | 3.77 | 0.270 | 95.15 | 68.1% | ||
| Doubront | 0.355 | 2.86 | 0.320 | 4.13 | 0.289 | 0.791 | 0.308 | 3.57 | 0.247 | 100.72 | 61.4% | ||
| Pettitte | 0.243 | 3.25 | 0.359 | 4.89 | 0.252 | 0.706 | 0.309 | 3.90 | 0.272 | 95.29 | 65.0% | ||
| Garza | 0.294 | 3.35 | 0.306 | 3.03 | 0.247 | 0.699 | 0.266 | 3.78 | 0.227 | 99.45 | 62.8% | ||
| Sanchez | 0.308 | 3.77 | 0.262 | 2.15 | 0.256 | 0.701 | 0.319 | 2.43 | 0.230 | 100.50 | 64.7% | ||
| Danks | 0.374 | 5.60 | 0.302 | 3.83 | 0.264 | 0.762 | 0.272 | 4.73 | 0.260 | 95.55 | 66.7% | ||
| Chen | 0.268 | 3.00 | 0.295 | 2.77 | 0.264 | 0.694 | 0.282 | 3.46 | 0.249 | 93.10 | 65.1% | ||
| Santana | 0.280 | 2.61 | 0.327 | 4.47 | 0.275 | 0.789 | 0.259 | 3.76 | 0.229 | 101.16 | 65.2% | ||
| O’Sullivan | 0.523 | 10.80 | 0.147 | 0.00 | 0.255 | 0.716 | 0.440 | 3.34 | 0.367 | 68.50 | 62.0% | ||
| Lohse | 0.305 | 3.93 | 0.319 | 3.45 | 0.242 | 0.677 | 0.269 | 4.30 | 0.255 | 90.95 | 66.9% | ||
| Lannan | 0.317 | 3.38 | 0.327 | 3.98 | 0.244 | 0.706 | 0.295 | 3.45 | 0.262 | 91.44 | 62.7% | ||
| Westbrook | 0.410 | 3.68 | 0.264 | 2.42 | 0.262 | 0.719 | 0.284 | 4.16 | 0.263 | 94.62 | 60.7% | ||
| Turner | 0.249 | 2.19 | 0.299 | 2.60 | 0.269 | 0.770 | 0.266 | 3.39 | 0.226 | 96.67 | 63.9% | ||
| De La Rosa | 0.248 | 1.31 | 0.323 | 3.77 | 0.227 | 0.642 | 0.290 | 3.60 | 0.249 | 92.95 | 61.2% | ||
| Samardzija | 0.342 | 4.18 | 0.316 | 4.07 | 0.256 | 0.711 | 0.303 | 3.66 | 0.242 | 104.85 | 63.0% | ||
| Kennedy | 0.371 | 6.04 | 0.328 | 4.89 | 0.248 | 0.715 | 0.295 | 4.62 | 0.258 | 101.95 | 63.6% | ||
| Leake | 0.320 | 2.81 | 0.265 | 2.45 | 0.262 | 0.706 | 0.259 | 4.10 | 0.239 | 94.47 | 64.2% | ||
| Gaudin | 0.326 | 2.55 | 0.231 | 2.35 | 0.252 | 0.723 | 0.253 | 3.02 | 0.203 | 42.92 | 63.5% | ||
- Opp Avg vs. L/R – Opponent Batting Average vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- Opp OPS vs. L/R – Opponent On Base + Slugging Percentage vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- wOBA-L and wOBA-R – Pitcher Weighted On Base Percentage Against vs. Left/Right Handed Batters
- ERA-L and ERA-R – Pitcher Earned Run Average against Left/Right Handed Batters
- BABIP – Pitcher Batting Average Against on Balls In Play
- FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
- Pit/G – Average Pitches Thrown Per Game
- Strk% – Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Starting Pitcher Salaries: July 24th, 2013
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window