Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 29th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
table(sortable).
h3. Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weaver | LAA | BAL | 118.1 | 3.50 | 4.05 | 1.14 | 52.4% | 19.3% | 6.9% | 1.22 | 0.76 |
| Tillman | BAL | LAA | 111.2 | 4.11 | 4.85 | 1.39 | 42.9% | 14.3% | 9.2% | 0.97 | 1.04 |
| Iwakuma | SEA | CLE | 88.0 | 3.07 | 2.81 | 1.05 | 60.0% | 21.1% | 2.4% | 1.02 | 2.09 |
| Bauer | CLE | SEA | 66.0 | 4.23 | 3.99 | 1.39 | 38.5% | 21.1% | 8.5% | 1.23 | 0.77 |
| Quintana | CWS | DET | 112.1 | 3.20 | 3.50 | 1.24 | 50.0% | 21.5% | 6.9% | 0.48 | 1.59 |
| Sanchez | DET | CWS | 87.2 | 3.18 | 3.97 | 1.03 | 41.2% | 19.0% | 7.1% | 0.31 | 1.12 |
| Strasburg | WAS | MIA | 119.1 | 3.47 | 2.59 | 1.21 | 52.4% | 28.2% | 4.8% | 0.91 | 1.55 |
| Alvarez | MIA | WAS | 115.0 | 2.27 | 3.65 | 1.24 | 50.0% | 14.7% | 4.6% | 0.39 | 2.40 |
| Stroman | TOR | BOS | 49.2 | 3.44 | 3.43 | 1.17 | 66.7% | 20.9% | 5.8% | 0.72 | 1.43 |
| De La Rosa | BOS | TOR | 32.1 | 2.51 | 3.09 | 1.02 | 57.1% | 24.0% | 6.4% | 0.84 | 1.87 |
| Cahill | ARI | CIN | 41.1 | 5.66 | 3.96 | 1.74 | 20.0% | 23.0% | 13.1% | 0.87 | 1.65 |
| Leake | CIN | ARI | 121.0 | 3.42 | 3.37 | 1.20 | 45.0% | 19.0% | 4.8% | 0.97 | 1.96 |
| Garza | MIL | TBR | 116.2 | 3.78 | 4.07 | 1.22 | 35.0% | 18.4% | 7.4% | 0.62 | 1.15 |
| Cobb | TBR | MIL | 69.1 | 4.28 | 3.50 | 1.25 | 42.9% | 20.8% | 7.5% | 0.91 | 1.95 |
| Hamels | PHI | NYM | 100.1 | 2.87 | 3.39 | 1.23 | 58.8% | 24.5% | 8.5% | 0.63 | 1.54 |
| Gee | NYM | PHI | 52.2 | 2.73 | 4.42 | 1.06 | 50.0% | 15.6% | 7.1% | 1.03 | 1.03 |
| McCarthy | NYY | TEX | 109.2 | 5.01 | 3.01 | 1.38 | 35.0% | 20.0% | 4.3% | 1.23 | 2.56 |
| Martinez | TEX | NYY | 67.0 | 5.10 | 5.85 | 1.69 | 27.3% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 1.61 | 0.65 |
| De La Rosa | COL | CHC | 96.2 | 4.75 | 4.40 | 1.31 | 40.0% | 17.0% | 10.2% | 1.12 | 1.67 |
| Jackson | CHC | COL | 101.2 | 5.05 | 4.07 | 1.52 | 15.0% | 21.1% | 10.1% | 0.80 | 1.22 |
| Samardzija | OAK | HOU | 115.0 | 2.74 | 3.23 | 1.17 | 60.0% | 22.8% | 6.8% | 0.55 | 1.94 |
| Feldman | HOU | OAK | 84.0 | 3.86 | 4.27 | 1.29 | 47.1% | 14.3% | 5.8% | 0.96 | 1.41 |
| Gibson | MIN | KCR | 95.0 | 4.17 | 4.36 | 1.25 | 52.6% | 12.6% | 7.1% | 0.57 | 1.90 |
| Shields | KCR | MIN | 123.2 | 3.71 | 3.59 | 1.29 | 42.9% | 19.3% | 5.1% | 1.09 | 1.44 |
| Harang | ATL | LAD | 110.1 | 3.67 | 4.08 | 1.40 | 75.0% | 19.8% | 8.5% | 0.65 | 1.02 |
| Beckett | LAD | ATL | 103.2 | 2.26 | 3.53 | 1.03 | 52.9% | 23.1% | 7.8% | 1.04 | 1.25 |
| Lynn | STL | SDP | 108.0 | 3.17 | 3.86 | 1.31 | 60.0% | 21.0% | 8.6% | 0.50 | 1.35 |
| Ross | SDP | STL | 122.2 | 2.93 | 3.23 | 1.19 | 66.7% | 23.1% | 8.3% | 0.73 | 2.49 |
| Liriano | PIT | SFG | 72.1 | 4.60 | 3.69 | 1.45 | 12.5% | 24.0% | 11.2% | 1.00 | 2.02 |
| Hudson | SFG | PIT | 113.2 | 2.53 | 3.28 | 1.05 | 68.4% | 16.3% | 3.5% | 0.48 | 2.46 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Lance Lynn STL (at SD) – He always seems good for that random dud in the midst of a hot streak (like his 2 IP/6 ER game at LAD on June 28th), but when you factor in the eight starts surrounding that one, he’s got a 2.47 ERA with 54 Ks in his last 54.7 IP. The Padres have risen up and popped some guys lately because regression said they couldn’t possibly stay that bad ALL year, but I’m still having no problem picking on them regularly.
Tyson Ross SD (v. STL) – Ross is incredible at home (and he’s improved his road work quite a bit, but that’s for another day) with a 1.89 ERA in 76.3 IP with 9.2 K9 and 0.94 WHIP. He had a 3.68 ERA in April, which is hardly bad, but he has revved it up nicely the last three months with a 2.29 ERA in 106 IP. The Cards, meanwhile, are probably avoided due to reputation, but their offense has been thoroughly unimpressive this year.
Stephen Strasburg WAS (at MIA) – I’m not really sure what his deal is this year. The skills are still fantastic (as evidenced by his 2.64 SIERA), but his 3.67 ERA is downright pedestrian. His price is starting to drop which actually makes him more appealing even though the results have been uninspiring. The Ks are just about automatic and definitely temper his downside more often than not (except in Coors where he allowed 12 base runners).
James Shields KC (v. MIN) – He’s back on track after about a month and a half lull (5.66 ERA in 8 starts from May 24-Jul 1), posting a 2.03 ERA and 28 Ks (against just 3 BB) in 26.7 IP with 7 IP in three of the four. The Minnesota offense has fallen back to earth after a nice start, sitting around league average against righties.
Marcus Stroman TOR (at BOS) – His 3.21 ERA is great, but it doesn’t even tell the whole story. He has a 2.21 ERA in his 10 starts with 55 Ks and a 3.9 K:BB ratio over 61 IP. He dropped seven shutout, one-hit innings on the Red Sox his last time out, his second straight start of seven scoreless.
Alex Cobb TB (v. MIL) – Cobb appears to be starting a big run. He deserved better than the 4.20 ERA we saw in his first 11 starts anyway, so the 2.59 mark in his last four isn’t a huge surprise. He’s got 24 Ks and a 4.0 K:BB ratio in 24.3 IP over these four, including seven against the impossible-to-strikeout Royals. This Brewers lineup is very susceptible to righties with seven of their eight regulars batting right-handed.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (at CLE) – He had back-to-back 5 ER outings to close June causing some panic about him, but he’s quickly erased that with a huge July. He was just OK last time, allowing 4 ER in 7 IP, but that only moved his July ERA to 2.25 in 35.7 IP with 33 Ks and… are you ready for this? … zero walks!!!! So why is he a silver, Paul?! Cleveland kills righties. They are lefty/switchy loaded which has helped them post the fourth-best OPS against righties this year. Iwakuma isn’t bad versus lefties, but his .697 OPS is much worse than his .536 against righties.
Jeff Samardzija OAK (at HOU) – I wish he was missing more bats with Oakland (6.0 K9), but if he’s going to continue walking virtually nobody (0.6 BB9), I can live with the dip. I actually suspect both numbers will jump up as he continues with his new team. His 1.2 HR9 with Oakland is worth keeping an eye on, but with only four starts so far, it’s hardly a bonafide problem just yet. That said, Houston is fourth in baseball against homers, seventh against righties.
Francisco Liriano PIT (at SF) – He missed a month and looked rough in his first start back, but he’s been great in his next two, allowing just one earned (two total) in 12 IP with 12 Ks. Walks are an issue this year, but if he can leave ‘em stranded then he can outrun their hit on his scores with his big strikeout totals. SF doesn’t hit lefties terribly well, either, giving Liriano a great chance to stay hot (24th OPS for season; 29th this month).
Matt Garza MIL (at TB) – This could one of two of ways: he’s either dialed in to shut down his old franchise and teammates or he’s overly-amped and gets pounded. The latter happened last year when he allowed 6 ER in 4.3 IP. Be careful here, but he’s done enough this year to still earn a look. Even with that horrific 0.3 IP/5 ER at Washington, Garza still has a 2.88 ERA in 25 July IP.
Cole Hamels PHI (at NYM) – His history of trouble against the Mets says to be careful, especially at the premium he costs (I play a lot at DraftKings and he’s the most expensive arm on Tuesday). They popped him in his second start of the season (4.7 IP/6 ER), but he’s hit ‘em with back-to-back 7 IP/1 ER gems since then with 18 Ks, but also 7 BB. If I did a Bronze Category, he’d be there. In short, I wouldn’t be surprised he owned them, but there’s enough risk that you should probably look elsewhere (though I wouldn’t go stacking Mets, either).
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Anibal Sanchez DET (v. CWS) – My DK playing influences Sanchez’s slotting here. He might still be expensive at other outlets, but he’s dropped to the 17th-most expensive arm there. Frankly, it’s because of the way he has performed, so I get it, but his talent is well beyond the 17th-best arm on the board.
Brandon McCarthy NYY (at TEX) – His surge isn’t because he was traded. Many believed he had some quality coming regardless. In fact, I recommended him repeatedly (to mixed results) in this very space. He’s continued his excellent component numbers (17 K, 3 BB in 18.7 IP as a Yank) and the results are following (1.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) despite a .327 BABIP. The “facing a team back-to-back” is always a dice roll whether the first start went well or poorly (his went well), but I’m willing to jump in at this price.
Henderson Alvarez MIA (v. WAS) – The prototypical volatile value play, Alvarez’s price never really skyrocketed even carrying a low-to-mid 2.00s ERA for the bulk of the year. Using Bill James’ Game Score (where 50 is average), Alvarez has five starts under 40 points (three of which are at 30 or lower), but also six 65+ efforts including a pair of 80s (two of his three shutouts). At DK, he’s the 22nd most expensive arm. He’s almost a no-brainer as an SP2 in at least one lineup.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Jered Weaver LAA (at BAL) – Wouldn’t necessarily stack against him, but I’m not messing with him on the road (4.45 ERA, 5.9 K9, 2.6 K:BB compared to 2.66, 7.9, and 3.1 at home)
- Jorge de la Rosa COL (at CHC) – Cubs actually smoke lefties while DLR has a 5.37 ERA on the road
- Edwin Jackson CHC (v. COL) – Fool me once, shame on you; fool me for 12 straight years; still shame on you… what is your deal, E-Jax?
- Kyle Gibson MIN (at KC)
- Trevor Cahill ARI (at CIN)
- Scott Feldman HOU (v. OAK)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weaver | 0.299 | 3.50 | 0.288 | 3.15 | 0.269 | 0.742 | 1.140 | 4.24 | 0.125 | 95.42 | 61.6% |
| Tillman | 0.326 | 4.12 | 0.310 | 3.53 | 0.257 | 0.730 | 1.390 | 4.55 | 0.051 | 100.00 | 62.3% |
| Iwakuma | 0.277 | 2.46 | 0.273 | 3.13 | 0.259 | 0.739 | 1.050 | 3.23 | 0.188 | 93.54 | 68.8% |
| Bauer | 0.337 | 3.73 | 0.334 | 4.58 | 0.241 | 0.691 | 1.390 | 4.21 | 0.127 | 103.18 | 63.0% |
| Quintana | 0.299 | 3.48 | 0.296 | 3.42 | 0.286 | 0.794 | 1.240 | 2.88 | 0.146 | 105.56 | 62.4% |
| Sanchez | 0.279 | 3.36 | 0.259 | 2.13 | 0.253 | 0.719 | 1.030 | 2.99 | 0.119 | 98.93 | 64.0% |
| Strasburg | 0.285 | 3.53 | 0.286 | 3.06 | 0.254 | 0.706 | 1.210 | 2.78 | 0.233 | 98.37 | 67.3% |
| Alvarez | 0.312 | 3.22 | 0.281 | 2.94 | 0.234 | 0.670 | 1.240 | 3.17 | 0.101 | 88.33 | 66.6% |
| Stroman | 0.300 | 3.86 | 0.287 | 3.20 | 0.239 | 0.670 | 1.170 | 3.28 | 0.151 | 69.58 | 63.2% |
| De La Rosa | 0.308 | 2.13 | 0.319 | 4.15 | 0.266 | 0.768 | 1.020 | 3.21 | 0.176 | 102.40 | 63.3% |
| Cahill | 0.361 | 4.63 | 0.316 | 4.20 | 0.250 | 0.688 | 1.740 | 4.13 | 0.1 | 40.95 | 57.1% |
| Leake | 0.336 | 3.57 | 0.301 | 3.38 | 0.258 | 0.702 | 1.200 | 3.66 | 0.142 | 98.00 | 65.0% |
| Garza | 0.308 | 4.11 | 0.299 | 3.77 | 0.247 | 0.688 | 1.220 | 3.42 | 0.11 | 99.78 | 66.0% |
| Cobb | 0.290 | 3.38 | 0.303 | 3.12 | 0.263 | 0.732 | 1.250 | 3.84 | 0.133 | 91.75 | 64.4% |
| Hamels | 0.298 | 4.63 | 0.306 | 3.04 | 0.258 | 0.705 | 1.230 | 3.15 | 0.16 | 105.47 | 64.1% |
| Gee | 0.348 | 4.28 | 0.283 | 2.86 | 0.235 | 0.646 | 1.060 | 4.31 | 0.085 | 96.38 | 64.1% |
| McCarthy | 0.335 | 4.15 | 0.345 | 5.09 | 0.256 | 0.690 | 1.380 | 3.80 | 0.157 | 90.83 | 68.0% |
| Martinez | 0.413 | 5.94 | 0.348 | 4.41 | 0.250 | 0.693 | 1.690 | 5.97 | -0.007 | 74.69 | 58.4% |
| De La Rosa | 0.225 | 2.63 | 0.349 | 4.27 | 0.265 | 0.755 | 1.310 | 4.74 | 0.068 | 92.33 | 60.0% |
| Jackson | 0.378 | 6.18 | 0.330 | 4.64 | 0.280 | 0.775 | 1.520 | 3.83 | 0.11 | 96.72 | 61.9% |
| Samardzija | 0.332 | 4.15 | 0.301 | 3.60 | 0.224 | 0.657 | 1.170 | 3.02 | 0.16 | 99.72 | 65.7% |
| Feldman | 0.318 | 4.26 | 0.311 | 3.79 | 0.259 | 0.739 | 1.290 | 4.38 | 0.085 | 95.93 | 63.6% |
| Gibson | 0.347 | 4.90 | 0.304 | 5.05 | 0.267 | 0.693 | 1.250 | 3.80 | 0.055 | 88.47 | 61.1% |
| Shields | 0.301 | 3.29 | 0.325 | 3.51 | 0.243 | 0.686 | 1.290 | 3.89 | 0.142 | 106.26 | 63.7% |
| Harang | 0.350 | 4.68 | 0.314 | 4.26 | 0.271 | 0.754 | 1.400 | 3.49 | 0.113 | 103.00 | 63.6% |
| Beckett | 0.338 | 4.22 | 0.277 | 2.19 | 0.240 | 0.660 | 1.030 | 3.83 | 0.153 | 96.53 | 63.0% |
| Lynn | 0.334 | 4.44 | 0.287 | 3.16 | 0.218 | 0.611 | 1.310 | 3.24 | 0.123 | 101.94 | 62.3% |
| Ross | 0.295 | 3.25 | 0.272 | 2.64 | 0.250 | 0.668 | 1.190 | 3.37 | 0.148 | 100.32 | 62.5% |
| Liriano | 0.231 | 2.63 | 0.310 | 3.79 | 0.248 | 0.710 | 1.450 | 4.00 | 0.128 | 89.79 | 61.0% |
| Hudson | 0.311 | 3.88 | 0.275 | 2.91 | 0.259 | 0.718 | 1.05 | 3.05 | 0.128 | 92.82 | 67.1% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window