Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 4th, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Performance and Talent Statistics: July 4th, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedy | ARI | 89 | 5.36 | 4.21 | 1.35 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 1.52 | 0.88 | ||
| Gee | NYM | 90 | 4.60 | 3.87 | 1.46 | 19.4% | 6.1% | 1.40 | 1.39 | ||
| Cain | SFG | 109 | 4.29 | 3.63 | 1.07 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 1.32 | 0.89 | ||
| Leake | CIN | 103.2 | 2.52 | 3.92 | 1.13 | 15.9% | 5.0% | 0.69 | 1.85 | ||
| Stults | SDP | 107.2 | 3.51 | 4.26 | 1.13 | 15.9% | 5.1% | 0.59 | 1.00 | ||
| Webster | BOS | 18 | 9.50 | 4.42 | 1.83 | 17.4% | 9.3% | 2.50 | 0.60 | ||
| Hamels | PHI | 106 | 4.58 | 3.74 | 1.30 | 21.9% | 7.3% | 1.10 | 1.20 | ||
| Cole | PIT | 24.1 | 3.70 | 4.37 | 1.23 | 10.9% | 4.0% | 0.37 | 0.00 | ||
| Archer | TBR | 30.2 | 4.40 | 4.76 | 1.53 | 18.0% | 13.0% | 1.17 | 2.00 | ||
| Lyles | HOU | 67.2 | 3.99 | 3.94 | 1.37 | 16.7% | 6.4% | 0.67 | 1.70 | ||
| Phelps | NYY | 76.1 | 4.95 | 4.01 | 1.44 | 21.1% | 9.6% | 0.83 | 1.18 | ||
| Gibson | MIN | 6 | 3.00 | 2.95 | 1.33 | 19.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Britton | BAL | 22 | 4.50 | 5.44 | 1.73 | 8.7% | 10.6% | 0.82 | 2.17 | ||
| Quintana | CWS | 93 | 3.97 | 4.30 | 1.26 | 17.0% | 7.3% | 1.06 | 1.00 | ||
| Jimenez | CLE | 83.2 | 4.63 | 4.15 | 1.46 | 23.4% | 12.1% | 1.29 | 1.43 | ||
| Shields | KCR | 117.1 | 2.99 | 3.64 | 1.17 | 21.9% | 6.9% | 0.84 | 1.31 | ||
| Wood | CHC | 104.1 | 2.85 | 4.38 | 1.00 | 18.3% | 7.8% | 0.69 | 0.83 | ||
| Straily | OAK | 66.2 | 5.00 | 4.19 | 1.22 | 18.8% | 7.1% | 0.81 | 0.89 | ||
| Verlander | DET | 105 | 3.77 | 3.49 | 1.40 | 25.1% | 8.6% | 0.69 | 1.34 | ||
| Rogers | TOR | 60.2 | 3.12 | 4.25 | 1.25 | 15.2% | 7.2% | 0.89 | 0.89 | ||
| Alvarez | 0 | 0.00 | |||||||||
| Teheran | ATL | 95.1 | 3.12 | 3.56 | 1.19 | 20.5% | 4.3% | 1.04 | 1.42 | ||
| Iwakuma | SEA | 115.1 | 2.42 | 3.19 | 0.88 | 23.2% | 3.9% | 1.17 | 1.13 | ||
| Perez | TEX | 19 | 2.37 | 4.50 | 1.26 | 10.3% | 5.1% | 0.47 | 2.00 | ||
| Capuano | LAD | 47.2 | 4.72 | 4.05 | 1.43 | 17.7% | 6.7% | 1.32 | 1.35 | ||
| Chacin | COL | 95.1 | 3.59 | 4.45 | 1.20 | 14.0% | 7.3% | 0.19 | 1.71 | ||
| Wainwright | STL | 125.2 | 2.22 | 2.84 | 0.99 | 23.4% | 2.5% | 0.29 | 1.78 | ||
| Blanton | LAA | 97.2 | 5.07 | 3.70 | 1.47 | 18.5% | 4.1% | 1.57 | 1.52 | ||
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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
The Grand Finale
The best and brightest
Adam Wainwright – playing in the last game of the night on Independence Day, most of you gamers will be Patriotically in bed by the time this game gets started on the West Coast in Anaheim. The Los Angeles Angels of Disneyland are swinging well at home this season (.281) and vs RHP (.277), however I am here to tell you that they have not seen Adam Wainwright stuff and he of the 11 wins and four complete games is gonna announce his presence with authority! (Vegas likes the STL Cards on the road at -140 8 o/u)
Julio Teheran – -240 per the oddsmakers vs the Miami Ks err I mean Marlins. This is the definite anchor if you are playing H2H, 50/50s or DONs…any other analysis is silly!
James Shields – can’t get run support to save his life, but even at 3-6 with a 2.99 ERA facing Ubaldo Jiminez (which I just found out is Espanol slang for batting practice) I am banking on a Grand 4th of July victory and a Shields on the mound celebration with Roman Candles after securing the win.
Minute Men
SPs have landed in this category since it takes less than a minute to realize that they are the second tier on a day lacking in Aces. Use these guys as 2nd pitchers in multi SP format or for the Ol’ (GPP) Glory
Mike Leake – yea I know, he is not a sexy pick, but this is all about winning the cash! With a 1.31 ERA over his last nine games and facing the recently NO HIT Giants this is a great spot for him.
Gerrit Cole – home vs Philly with wins in his first four starts, yes a long shot to get #5, however he is the first Buc pitcher with four wins in his first four starts in 105 years…our glorious country is 237 years old so hey, there is room for Cole to make the Phillies submit for one more win with both a .259 avg vs RHP AND road batting average.
Cole Hamels – yeah, I just busted on the Phillies bats, but I think Hamels will give Pittsburgh fits in return (.244 home avg and .231 vs LHP….how long can the Pirate magic last?!?!?)
Baby, You’re a Firework
Damn (Yankee) right, you take bats against these SPs
Donovan Hand – the Washington Nationals at home on July 4th…really you need more incentive than that?!?
Allen Webster – sorry Ethan (the RG resident Boston fan) but he is terrible, I did pan Carlos Quentin on the Tuesday GL Happy Hour and he went 0-4, I am endorsing him vs Webster (.281 vs RHP) and the rest of the Friars today as well if you are seeking salary cap relief.
Eric Stults – not even trying to make it up to Ethan, but if you want to go BIG or go home, take a Red Sox stack or mini-stack (they are 10th as a team vs LHP this season)
Taylor Jordan – hehehehehahahahehehe go with the Brewers
Joe Blanton – STL is #3 in the league vs RHP at .286.
Esmil Rogers – Facing Verlander is tough enough, but the Detroit Bats too…in honor of Wimbleton Game Set AND Match!
Ian Kennedy – Even the #LOLMETS will look good vs Kennedy and that is with a .219 home avg (and I am not thrilled to go against a fave and No. 1 All-time modern era by most accounts President name today)
OUR FOREIGN FRIENDS
Hey now, in the USA we are a melting pot
Hisashi Iwakuma – yeah vs Texas is tough, but so is finding reputable pitchers today…good GPP or multi SP play with K potential
Martin Perez – very sneaky play, but it is the Mariners that he is facing, see above for caveats
Jhoulys Chacin – hey Vegas likes him at -140 and the LAD are 29th vs RHP with Puig a likely scratch after the late game exit with a bruised left hip
Jose Quintana – not sure we will be on good terms with Columbia after two turns of the Oriole lineup
Henderson Alvarez – not looking good against ATL
Yankee Doodle Dandies
Some home grown good ol’ US of A talent
Matt Cain – underdog vs Leake, but SF needs some payback after getting “no-hit” and Cain has a solid history
Chris Archer – a solid -160 @Hou but he has a short track record…will nicely fill out our rosters on multi SP sites and save some cash.
David Phelps – really, you are gonna question me putting the NY YANKEE SP in this category?!?!? Shame on you!
Kyle Gibson – yeah, I went there…this is for the Yankee bats!
Ground Flowers
Hell, do we ever really know what is gonna happen with them?
Chris Capuano – who wants to take a SP in Coors Field (btw I hope you loyal readers enjoy some original “banquet beer” or your personal favorite beverage of choice tomorrow!)
Jordan Lyles – heck Maddon may have a random drawing to select one of the first 5,000 fans in the park over age 12 win a chance to bat leadoff if he thinks there is a mathematical edge
Dillon Gee – um not to state the obvious, but Gee, why would you take him? And if you do, please pick up one of my H2H games!
Only in America
Zach Britton – uh, not to state the obvious AGAIN so soon but…this is called Independence Day for a reason, DUH!!!! As they say in real football PUNT!
Travis Wood – yeah, he has Quality Starts in 15 of his last 16 games, but even Al Smizzle agrees that in a democratic move, all of the Oakland starting nine will get hits today…EQUALITY!!!! FADE HIM
Dan Straily – from AAA rags to MLB riches, count on a solid 5+ innings from Dan the Man (is there a better ‘Merican nickname?) Multi SP Start!
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PARK FACTORS: July 4th, 2013
| PITCHER | PARK | PARK-HR | PARK-LHB | PARK-RHB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedy | Citi Field | 0.92 | 0.963 | 0.896 | |
| Gee | Citi Field | 0.92 | 0.963 | 0.896 | |
| Cain | Great American Ball Park | 1.278 | 0.967 | 1.068 | |
| Leake | Great American Ball Park | 1.278 | 0.967 | 1.068 | |
| Stults | Fenway Park | 0.91 | 1.073 | 1.108 | |
| Webster | Fenway Park | 0.91 | 1.073 | 1.108 | |
| Hamels | PNC Park | 0.587 | 0.919 | 0.924 | |
| Cole | PNC Park | 0.587 | 0.919 | 0.924 | |
| Archer | Minute Maid Park | 1.456 | 1.061 | 1.090 | |
| Lyles | Minute Maid Park | 1.456 | 1.061 | 1.090 | |
| Phelps | Target Field | 0.896 | 1.057 | 1.053 | |
| Gibson | Target Field | 0.896 | 1.057 | 1.053 | |
| Britton | U.S. Cellular Field | 1.081 | 0.920 | 1.012 | |
| Quintana | U.S. Cellular Field | 1.081 | 0.920 | 1.012 | |
| Jimenez | Kauffman Stadium | 0.89 | 0.978 | 0.981 | |
| Shields | Kauffman Stadium | 0.89 | 0.978 | 0.981 | |
| Wood | O.co Coliseum | 0.78 | 0.985 | 0.948 | |
| Straily | O.co Coliseum | 0.78 | 0.985 | 0.948 | |
| Verlander | Rogers Centre | 1.439 | 1.106 | 1.071 | |
| Rogers | Rogers Centre | 1.439 | 1.106 | 1.071 | |
| Alvarez | Turner Field | 0.891 | 0.954 | 0.953 | |
| Teheran | Turner Field | 0.891 | 0.954 | 0.953 | |
| Iwakuma | Rangers Ballpark | 0.98 | 0.991 | 1.042 | |
| Perez | Rangers Ballpark | 0.98 | 0.991 | 1.042 | |
| Capuano | Coors Field | 0.965 | 1.121 | 0.984 | |
| Chacin | Coors Field | 0.965 | 1.121 | 0.984 | |
| Wainwright | Angel Stadium | 0.833 | 1.074 | 1.009 | |
| Blanton | Angel Stadium | 0.833 | 1.074 | 1.009 | |
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Starting Pitcher Salaries: July 4th, 2013
Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
| Site | FANDUEL | DRAFTSTREET | DAILYJOUST | DRAFTDAY | DRAFTKINGS | FANTASYFEUD | STARSTREET | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Salary | Top | Salary | Top | Salary | Top | Salary | Top | Salary | Top | Salary | Top | Salary | Top |
| Kennedy | $6,300 | 64% | $11,244 | 61% | $229K | 52% | $13,800 | 76% | $7,800 | 60% | $61K | 44% | $26,000 | 78% |
| Gee | $7,000 | 71% | $10,883 | 59% | $346K | 78% | $12,500 | 69% | $7,400 | 57% | $84K | 61% | $23,600 | 71% |
| Cain | $8,000 | 82% | $14,655 | 79% | $375K | 85% | $13,800 | 76% | $9,200 | 71% | $109K | 79% | $32,400 | 97% |
| Leake | $6,900 | 70% | $13,400 | 72% | $397K | 90% | $12,000 | 66% | $7,100 | 55% | $116K | 84% | $24,700 | 74% |
| Stults | $6,100 | 62% | $10,209 | 55% | $324K | 73% | $10,550 | 58% | $6,900 | 53% | $77K | 56% | $20,000 | 60% |
| Webster | $4,300 | 44% | $6,386 | 34% | $154K | 35% | $6,000 | 33% | $5,000 | 39% | $20K | 14% | $15,000 | 45% |
| Hamels | $7,100 | 72% | $13,133 | 71% | $279K | 63% | $15,250 | 84% | $9,800 | 76% | $70K | 51% | $30,100 | 90% |
| Cole | $4,700 | 48% | $9,706 | 52% | $288K | 65% | $9,850 | 54% | $6,000 | 47% | $107K | 77% | $24,600 | 74% |
| Archer | $5,400 | 55% | $11,078 | 60% | $248K | 56% | $9,750 | 54% | $8,300 | 64% | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Lyles | $5,700 | 58% | $8,212 | 44% | $263K | 59% | $7,200 | 40% | $6,700 | 52% | $62K | 45% | $18,400 | 55% |
| Phelps | $4,700 | 48% | $7,008 | 38% | $197K | 44% | $10,100 | 56% | $5,000 | 39% | $62K | 45% | $16,000 | 48% |
| Gibson | $4,200 | 43% | $8,776 | 47% | $295K | 67% | $10,150 | 56% | $5,000 | 39% | $20K | 14% | $16,200 | 49% |
| Britton | $5,200 | 53% | $8,917 | 48% | $236K | 53% | $7,200 | 40% | $5,900 | 46% | $74K | 54% | $18,500 | 56% |
| Quintana | $5,200 | 53% | $9,086 | 49% | $186K | 42% | $11,350 | 63% | $7,400 | 57% | $64K | 47% | $17,000 | 51% |
| Jimenez | $6,700 | 68% | $11,528 | 62% | $282K | 64% | $11,500 | 63% | $7,100 | 55% | $88K | 64% | $23,700 | 71% |
| Shields | $7,600 | 78% | $14,704 | 79% | $290K | 65% | $14,600 | 80% | $9,900 | 77% | $88K | 64% | $27,300 | 82% |
| Wood | $6,600 | 67% | $12,814 | 69% | $281K | 63% | NA | NA | $7,300 | 57% | $86K | 62% | $22,300 | 67% |
| Straily | $6,000 | 61% | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | $6,300 | 49% | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Verlander | $8,500 | 87% | $14,750 | 79% | $333K | 75% | $16,600 | 91% | $12,900 | 100% | $89K | 65% | $33,300 | 100% |
| Rogers | $4,500 | 46% | $8,750 | 47% | $302K | 68% | $5,600 | 31% | $5,000 | 39% | $72K | 52% | $15,500 | 47% |
| Alvarez | $5,000 | 51% | $9,195 | 50% | $215K | 49% | $5,000 | 28% | $5,000 | 39% | NA | NA | $18,300 | 55% |
| Teheran | $7,500 | 77% | $16,838 | 91% | $416K | 94% | $16,600 | 91% | $9,300 | 72% | $116K | 84% | $29,700 | 89% |
| Iwakuma | $7,800 | 80% | $14,168 | 76% | $336K | 76% | $14,000 | 77% | $10,500 | 81% | $119K | 86% | $24,200 | 73% |
| Perez | $4,300 | 44% | $7,943 | 43% | $341K | 77% | $10,200 | 56% | $5,000 | 39% | $58K | 42% | $18,800 | 56% |
| Capuano | $5,400 | 55% | $8,075 | 43% | $285K | 64% | $6,450 | 36% | $6,000 | 47% | $63K | 46% | $21,000 | 63% |
| Chacin | $6,400 | 65% | $12,710 | 68% | $424K | 96% | $9,400 | 52% | $8,300 | 64% | $106K | 77% | $29,200 | 88% |
| Wainwright | $9,800 | 100% | $18,570 | 100% | $443K | 100% | $18,150 | 100% | $10,700 | 83% | $138K | 100% | $33,100 | 99% |
| Blanton | $6,300 | 64% | $10,938 | 59% | $329K | 74% | $11,100 | 61% | $6,800 | 53% | $65K | 47% | $29,700 | 89% |