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Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 9th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-07-09 19:10:50

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: July 9th, 2013

PLAYER PERFORMANCE TALENT
PITCHER TM IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Jordan WAS 10.0 2.70 4.39 1.30 0.0% 8.7% 4.4% 0.00 2.20
Hamels PHI 113.0 4.38 3.63 1.27 50.0% 22.4% 6.9% 1.04 1.13
Straily OAK 73.2 4.52 4.17 1.15 46.0% 19.3% 7.5% 0.73 0.83
Cole PIT 29.2 3.94 4.13 1.31 40.0% 12.9% 4.0% 0.30 1.78
Perez TEX 24.1 1.85 4.34 1.40 50.0% 11.7% 5.8% 0.37 2.14
Britton BAL 29.0 4.03 5.04 1.55 20.0% 9.2% 9.2% 0.62 1.95
Johnson TOR 53.1 4.89 3.79 1.61 30.0% 21.5% 8.0% 1.35 1.36
Jimenez CLE 88.2 4.67 4.30 1.47 29.0% 22.7% 12.7% 1.32 1.27
Shields KCR 122.2 3.23 3.73 1.21 61.0% 21.3% 7.0% 0.88 1.32
Sabathia NYY 124.0 4.06 3.56 1.21 39.0% 20.7% 5.1% 1.31 1.31
Quintana CWS 100.0 3.69 4.08 1.20 35.0% 18.7% 7.2% 0.99 1.21
Verlander DET 112.0 3.54 3.52 1.36 44.0% 24.8% 8.6% 0.64 1.28
Teheran ATL 100.1 3.23 3.53 1.21 50.0% 21.1% 4.6% 1.08 1.16
Alvarez MIA 5.0 5.40 4.26 1.00 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% 0.00
Gibson MIN 11.1 7.94 3.69 1.76 50.0% 13.2% 1.9% 0.00 1.83
Archer TBR 36.2 4.17 4.76 1.42 43.0% 18.6% 13.0% 1.23 1.77
Blanton LAA 103.1 5.14 3.64 1.49 35.0% 19.0% 4.1% 1.57 1.33
Wood CHC 110.1 2.69 4.34 0.98 71.0% 18.5% 7.6% 0.65 0.75
Cingrani CIN 53.0 3.40 3.26 1.15 38.0% 28.7% 9.7% 1.53 0.87
Peralta MIL 97.1 5.27 4.65 1.57 28.0% 12.6% 8.8% 0.92 2.12
Norris HOU 109.0 3.22 4.45 1.37 50.0% 16.6% 7.6% 0.58 1.05
Wainwright STL 133.2 2.36 2.94 1.00 61.0% 22.6% 2.5% 0.34 1.78
Nolasco LAD 112.1 3.85 3.80 1.22 44.0% 19.2% 5.3% 0.88 1.24
Kennedy ARI 96.0 5.16 4.13 1.33 38.0% 20.4% 8.4% 1.41 0.84
Chacin COL 101.0 3.74 4.49 1.25 44.0% 14.0% 7.5% 0.27 1.69
Stults SDP 112.0 3.70 4.34 1.17 50.0% 15.1% 4.8% 0.64 1.01
Webster BOS 24.0 7.88 4.77 1.75 40.0% 16.8% 10.6% 1.88 1.35
Iwakuma SEA 121.1 2.60 3.27 0.88 61.0% 22.4% 3.9% 1.26 1.21
Gee NYM 97.0 4.45 3.83 1.43 41.0% 19.8% 6.1% 1.30 1.16
Zito SFG 95.1 4.44 4.78 1.62 35.0% 14.6% 8.2% 0.66 1.04

STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Adam Wainwright, STL (v. HOU) – The perception is that the Astros have been better of late and part of that is because technically they have been, though 14-20 isn’t exactly good. Meanwhile, that “improvement” has been driven entirely by their pitching as their hitting has actually gotten worse. They are second-worst in OPS against righties at 655 on the season and it’s down to an MLB-worst 606 since June 1st. This could get ugly. Waino will cost you, but he will be worth it.

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Justin Verlander, DET (v. CWS) – JV looked great in his latest outing against Toronto and even when he has struggled, the stuff has still been crisp. His issues have been mechanical and he said recently on the radio that those have been identified and fixed. I’m willing to trust the guy we all thought was the unquestioned best starter in baseball as recently as mid-May before the Rangers tattooed him for eight earned in just 2.7 IP.

Julio Teheran, ATL (at MIA) – Is he the current ace of the Braves? It seems like a revolving position that started with Paul Maholm then moved to Mike Minor then over to Kris Medlen for a brief moment, but now it appears to be Teheran. Of course none of them are your prototypical “ace”, but they are all very good. Teheran has developed much quicker than anticipated and he’s paying tremendous dividends on his lofty prospect status from the last few years. He carried a 7.31 ERA out of his third start of the season despite facing the Cubs and Pirates in two of those three. Since then: 2.45 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 6.3 K/BB in 84.3 IP of brilliant work. He was solid, though unspectacular last time out against these Marlins going five, allowing three, and fanning seven, but now he gets them on the heels of a 14-inning game.

Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA (v. BOS) – He now has four straight 4 ER games yielding a 5.54 ERA, but his 1.12 WHIP and 4.0 K/BB show that he hasn’t really been getting smashed. In fact, it’s been mostly home run damage as he’s allowed SEVEN in that 26-inning span. He’d allowed 10 the 95.3 IP before that. He just needs to iron out some command issues so that he’s not getting beat so badly within the zone and then he’ll be back to the stud we saw in those first 14 starts. By the way, despite this lull, he still leads the AL in ERA. In other words, there is no reason to panic. The Red Sox are a very tough matchup, but he’s beyond the level of freaking out over opponent. That said, I’ll say as I did with Felix yesterday: you wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he went out and shut them down, but there are almost certainly better investments out there that offer the same upside with less risk.

BEST THE REST:

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Cole Hamels, PHI (v. WAS) – Despite the overall struggles of Hamels, I still like him today for a couple of reasons. Chief among them being the fact that his skills are still strong: 22% K rate, 7% BB rate, 3.2 K/BB, and 42% GB rate, but also the fact that the Nats struggle against lefties. I mentioned as much yesterday with John Lannan, though I was still a little cautious because of their lineup composition changing so much recently (and because Lannan isn’t exactly a Hamels-level arm skill-wise). This is a nice chance for Hamels to get some momentum going into the All-Star break.

Dillon Gee, NYM (at SF) – Gee has a 2.47 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in his last seven spanning 47.3 IP including 47 strikeouts and just nine walks (5.2 K/BB). That stretch even includes a 5 IP/5 ER outing in Philly which tells you just how good he was in the other six. He gets a floundering Giants offense coming off of a 16-inning marathon. They are down to 699 OPS on the season against righties (24th) and it’s even worse recently with their 609 OPS (29th) just narrowly edging Houston’s 606 to avoid the basement.

James Shields, KC (at NYY) – After being criminally under-supported by his lineup, Shields has some self-inflicted damage of late with a 6.48 ERA in his last three thanks in part to a 1.6 HR/9. Hilariously he didn’t get a single win during a 10-start stretch of 2.87 ERA, but he’s 1-0 during this latest three-game run. The Yankees’ ineptitude offensively is well-chronicled and I like Shields to get back on track against them tonight.

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CC Sabathia, NYY (v. KC) – Sabathia has been quite far from his usually consistent self which has made it extremely difficult to forecast which version we are going to get on a given night. Plus the 4.06 ERA isn’t that far from his 3.92 FIP so it’s not like he’s outpitching his results that much, either. He still has a strong K/BB ratio (4.1), but homers have been a big issue this year as he has just three homer-less outings over his last 15 (1.6 HR/9). Homers are the quickest way to implode an ERA, but thankfully he gets a Royals team that has the fewest HRs in MLB against lefties (13). He also fares much better at home. We could see a pitching duel between he and Shields tonight. I had to bump both down a bit because of this potential as it drops their win probability.

Travis Wood, CHC (v. LAA) – Wood’s allowed more than three earned just once this year against a slate that includes St. Louis (twice), Oakland, Milwaukee, and Texas so even facing the Angels isn’t an automatic stay-away, especially since most of their damage comes against righties. They have just a 696 OPS against lefties (22nd), though they are on the rise with a 747 since June 1st. Wood has shown enough in his 110.3 IP that I would trust him in the right situation. There are several viable options today so I probably wouldn’t gravitate toward him in this particular instance, but I’m completely fine with those selecting him.

eric-stults-300x200

Eric Stults, SD (v. COL) – Stults has stumbled a bit in his last two after an amazing 11-start run that ran through May and most of June (2.34 ERA in 77 IP) so he can’t wait to get another start in Petco where he has a 2.85 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 6.0 K/BB in 47.3 IP (compared to 4.31, 1.39, and 2.1 in 64.7 on the road). The Rockies have been league average on the road this year across the board, including against lefties where their 688 OPS is just below the 701 midpoint.

Jhoulys Chacin, COL (at SD) – We could have a really nice pitcher’s duel on our hands in San Diego as Chacin does his best work away from Coors Field while Stults does his best at home. Chacin has a 2.05 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 30.7 IP on the road (4.48, 1.29 in 70.3 at home). He was OK in this very venue during his third start of the season when he threw five innings of two run ball allowing six base runners and striking out three. The Padres’ 680 OPS against righties is tied with Mets for baseball’s third-worst and it’s actually been worse of late at 655.

Bud Norris, HOU (at STL) – This is a tough assignment for Norris, but he’s been brilliant since May posting a 2.85 ERA in 79 IP across 12 starts with only the Tigers really getting to him as they dropped seven earned in five innings against him on May 13th. That was after he’d already thrown seven strong against them 10 days prior and he’s answered the bell against several other tough opponents including Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and the Angels about 700 times (OK, just three, but he has a 0.43 ERA in 21 IP against them during this run). I think there are better low-dollar options to choose over Norris given the difficulty of facing the Cards especially since the Astros are facing Wainwright which cuts deep into Norris’ win probability, but he’s been unquestionably awesome this season.

USE CAUTION:

Ricky Nolasco, LAD (at ARI) – Nolasco makes his Dodger debut against a D’Backs team that he dominated earlier this year when he allowing just one earned over eight innings with 11 strikeouts back on May 19th. He’s been really good this year mixing in just a couple of ugly starts, but posting great component skills throughout the season with a 19% K rate and 3.6 K/BB ratio in 112.3 IP of work. The D’Backs are 12th in OPS on the season (726), but they’re floundering of late with a 699 since June 1st that places them 22nd in MLB.

tony-cingrani-300x200

Tony Cingrani, CIN (at MIL) – Cingrani has been in and out of the rotation approximately 412 times this year and he’s done some nice things, particularly with his strikeouts (28% K rate as a starter). The Brewers got to him a bit back on May 10th as he lasted just four allowing two runs and seven base runners on 85 pitches. The counter to his strikeout goodness has been a home run issue (1.8 HR/9 as SP) and the Brewers scored both runs on solo homers during that outing. They are a good example of why I show the composite numbers as well as the recent work, though. They have the eighth-best OPS v. LHP this year at 723, but they are baseball’s third-worst at 632 since June 1st.

Dan Straily, OAK (at PIT) – Straily has gone the normal ups and downs you’d expect from a young pitcher going through his first full season in the majors. He will have a trio of gems interrupted by a complete dud only to start another run of quality work shortly thereafter. He’s had gems against good teams, duds against weak ones, and everything in between. The Pirates are far from a tough matchup (704 OPS v. RHP, 20th), but they have been better of late with a 738 OPS at home.

Joe Blanton, LAA (at CHC) – After posting a horrid 6.62 ERA through his first nine starts, Blanton has a 3.74 ERA in his last eight plus a tremendous 8.8 K/BB ratio in 53 innings. He has 53 strikeouts and just six walks. He is still allowing far too many homers (1.7 HR/9) in that span, but limiting base runners has severely lessened the damage of them. The Cubs have a 703 OPS against righties (23rd), but it’s down to 655 since June 1st – tied for fourth-worst.

Gerrit Cole, PIT (v. OAK) – Cole has been impressive early on, but it’s been more from a “real baseball” standpoint as his fantasy numbers – whether season-long or daily – have been rather mediocre. The Pirates are protecting him from going too deep into games (season high of 94 pitches, no more than 6.3 IP in any start) and the strikeouts aren’t there yet, either. Meanwhile he’s given up seven hits or more in four of his five starts. The A’s have a real offense, especially on the road where their 756 v. RHP ranks fourth in MLB.

Martin Perez, TEX (at BAL) – The Orioles get a lefty for the second day in a row and while Derek Holland is better than Perez on a pure basis, Perez is off to a great start this year posting a 1.85 ERA in his first four starts. His 1.40 WHIP suggests there has been some good fortune there as he’s allowing hits at a 10.4 per nine clip and the strikeouts haven’t really materialized (11.7%), but with the O’s being a subpar (686 OPS compared to 704 league average) team against lefties Perez could be decent budget option especially at sites using multiple starters.

Barry Zito, SF (v. NYM) – It’ll be interesting to see how much offense these two teams can muster after playing 16 last night. The Mets are just as bad as the Giants offensively, in fact their talent is even worse as they have basically just one guy in David Wright and then parts. Marlon Byrd has been surprisingly good, too, but he should never be your second-best hitter.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

ADVANCED METRICS: July 9th, 2013

VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS OPP vs L/R OTHER ADVANCED STATS
PITCHER wOBA L ERA L wOBA R ERA R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Jordan 0.300 2.08 0.331 3.18 0.261 0.717 0.289 3.47 0.262 42.00 57.1%
Hamels 0.306 4.97 0.336 4.25 0.215 0.612 0.302 3.66 0.249 97.33 65.8%
Johnson 0.363 3.77 0.394 6.45 0.255 0.747 0.345 4.18 0.287 95.00 61.8%
Jimenez 0.318 4.35 0.354 5.17 0.250 0.744 0.288 4.68 0.240 90.35 61.5%
Perez 0.355 0.00 0.304 2.45 0.248 0.708 0.321 3.36 0.289 64.00 66.0%
Britton 0.439 3.86 0.312 4.09 0.253 0.705 0.298 4.48 0.280 73.80 58.0%
Quintana 0.329 3.55 0.300 3.79 0.274 0.776 0.265 3.87 0.233 94.71 61.7%
Verlander 0.299 2.65 0.336 4.95 0.249 0.686 0.333 3.03 0.255 101.94 65.9%
Shields 0.268 2.70 0.337 3.93 0.245 0.703 0.293 3.55 0.244 102.28 62.4%
Sabathia 0.275 3.81 0.334 4.15 0.269 0.703 0.294 3.93 0.256 104.50 66.7%
Straily 0.308 4.84 0.277 4.34 0.245 0.707 0.263 3.63 0.223 81.15 65.6%
Cole 0.343 4.05 0.270 4.11 0.249 0.719 0.330 3.14 0.291 68.60 64.4%
Gibson 0.442 10.80 0.366 5.68 0.248 0.730 0.442 2.63 0.380 45.50 70.3%
Archer 0.355 5.32 0.280 2.08 0.243 0.704 0.252 5.09 0.225 82.29 59.7%
Teheran 0.326 4.09 0.308 2.47 0.235 0.627 0.309 3.68 0.261 90.19 68.2%
Alvarez 0.563 18.00 0.138 2.25 0.255 0.752 0.294 2.27 0.263
Blanton 0.360 4.98 0.389 5.36 0.244 0.704 0.349 4.27 0.306 92.35 66.2%
Wood 0.188 1.98 0.268 2.94 0.241 0.696 0.216 3.52 0.188 91.29 64.0%
Cingrani 0.277 3.94 0.327 3.22 0.265 0.723 0.254 4.24 0.207 71.85 61.7%
Peralta 0.386 5.15 0.327 5.40 0.248 0.719 0.307 4.49 0.281 89.94 60.4%
Norris 0.368 4.61 0.270 1.88 0.286 0.763 0.315 3.50 0.270 95.78 64.7%
Wainwright 0.263 2.63 0.268 2.08 0.228 0.655 0.303 2.17 0.239 97.83 68.1%
Nolasco 0.340 4.45 0.276 3.20 0.262 0.728 0.299 3.52 0.255 100.83 62.8%
Kennedy 0.358 5.44 0.329 4.93 0.262 0.716 0.286 4.71 0.249 94.44 63.4%
Chacin 0.308 4.38 0.296 3.22 0.241 0.680 0.287 3.26 0.249 86.56 64.0%
Stults 0.262 3.52 0.308 3.68 0.263 0.727 0.284 3.41 0.252 89.22 64.9%
Webster 0.488 10.13 0.310 6.39 0.240 0.699 0.333 5.95 0.303 64.00 61.3%
Iwakuma 0.264 2.37 0.267 2.88 0.291 0.837 0.224 3.66 0.202 88.50 69.4%
Gee 0.396 5.36 0.315 3.81 0.258 0.699 0.334 4.14 0.287 84.47 65.2%
Zito 0.440 3.60 0.348 4.67 0.232 0.672 0.352 3.92 0.307 97.41 62.4%

Starting Pitcher Salaries: July 9th, 2013

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

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About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.