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Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 10th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-06-10 19:52:35

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: June 10th, 2013

PLAYER PERFORMANCE TALENT
PITCHER TM IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% IMP% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Weaver LAA 23 3.13 4.32 1.17 75.0% 18.4% 7.1% 0.78 0.78
Garcia BAL 38.1 4.70 4.82 1.17 42.9% 11.0% 5.2% 2.58 1.20
Lackey BOS 51.2 2.79 3.24 1.14 55.6% 23.3% 6.5% 1.22 2.06
Cobb TBR 75.1 2.39 2.98 1.06 54.5% 22.9% 5.6% 1.08 2.38
Gallardo MIL 73.2 5.25 4.01 1.47 23.1% 18.6% 8.4% 1.10 1.76
Nolasco MIA 82.1 3.61 3.82 1.13 46.2% 19.9% 6.0% 0.87 1.19
Bailey CIN 75 3.84 3.22 1.17 58.3% 24.4% 6.5% 0.48 1.50
Feldman CHC 66.2 2.84 3.91 1.17 63.6% 18.6% 7.1% 0.95 1.53
Kazmir CLE 46.1 5.24 3.74 1.58 33.3% 23.2% 8.2% 1.55 1.02
Lindblom TEX 4.2 7.71 4.77 1.93 0.0% 17.4% 8.7% 1.93 0.56
Fister DET 77 3.27 3.02 1.18 50.0% 20.3% 3.7% 0.23 2.79
Guthrie KCR 78.2 3.66 4.77 1.33 58.3% 13.2% 7.5% 1.72 1.28
Dickey TOR 83 4.66 4.49 1.31 46.2% 18.2% 9.7% 1.30 1.06
Axelrod CWS 70 3.73 4.74 1.27 41.7% 13.7% 7.2% 0.90 1.06
Keuchel HOU 53.2 4.70 4.01 1.55 50.0% 14.0% 8.1% 1.17 2.57
Iwakuma SEA 88.1 1.94 3.11 0.83 76.9% 24.0% 4.0% 1.02 1.13
Teheran ATL 71 3.30 3.80 1.21 45.5% 18.6% 5.1% 1.01 1.42
Marquis SDP 70 3.73 4.93 1.43 50.0% 15.1% 12.5% 1.54 1.94
Miley ARI 71.1 4.92 4.15 1.42 41.7% 17.0% 7.8% 1.01 1.52
Kershaw LAD 93.1 1.93 3.33 0.96 61.5% 25.1% 7.2% 0.48 1.22

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

clayton kershaw

Clayton Kershaw, LAD (v. ARI) – With a 1.93 ERA, I’d have honestly suspected more than a 62% gem rate for Kersh. If you can find a low-budget offense, then you can invest here and feel confident about what you’re going to get with him. There isn’t really any “upside” when buying the top guy, but he does have legitimate shutout potential every time out. It helps that the D’Backs have been below average against lefties this year including just four runs scored in 14.3 IP against Kershaw already this year.

Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA (v. HOU) – After 13 fantastic starts that include a 1.94 ERA and MLB-best 0.83 WHIP, all outlets have adjusted to Iwakuma pricing him as elite. I’m not saying they just realized with his salary since he’s been excellent all year, but I did notice that he’s not an underrated value anywhere. Facing Houston of course adds to his profile for the day, but it also makes him one of the “obvious” picks. Iwakuma is fanning 24% of the batters he’s facing and the Stros are striking out 26% of the time. That’s a match made in strikeout heaven.

alex%20cobb

Alex Cobb, TB (v. BOS) – His last four starts have been against the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Yankees, and Tigers. That’s three of the top nine offenses in baseball by OPS with Yankees in the middle of the pack at 15 and he posted a 1.26 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 28.7 innings against them. Oddly enough, the Yankees hit him the “hardest” posting a pair of earned runs against him in 8.3 strong innings. The saddest thing is that he only went 2-0 in the run.

Doug Fister, DET (at KC) – If you’re looking value on a slate of stars, Fister is your guy. He isn’t exactly “cheap”, but his price, talent, and opponent add up to a great start compared to the investment in a Kershaw, Cobb, or our next guy who are facing much tougher competition while using more of your budget. The Royals have the second-worst slugging in baseball against righties at .357 and it’s been even worse in that last month at a horrific .333 over 29 games.

Jered Weaver, LAA (at BAL) – You want to be cautious with tough teams and tough environments, but those factors can sometimes get over-emphasized when you’re dealing with star talents. Weaver hasn’t missed a beat since returning from injury and though it’s only been a pair of starts, his 12/1 K/BB ratio is particularly impressive in his 12 innings. With a deep pool of options, Weaver isn’t my favorite because the O’s are tough, but I wouldn’t run from him altogether, especially at DraftDay where he’s priced very nicely.

BEST THE REST:

john%20lackey

John Lackey, BOS (at TB) – The toxicity associated with his name after the 2011 season was in stasis in 2012 since he didn’t pitch due to injury and now the community has been slow to trust him even after a great nine-start run that has seen him post a career-best 23.3% strikeout rate. The Rays floundered a bit toward the end of May after a hot start. They were the best team against righties three weeks into the month with an 855 OPS, but they’ve sputtered along with a 636 in the two and a half weeks since. Lackey has the third-best righty fastball in the game with a 592 OPS-against behind just Jordan Zimmermann (542) and teammate Clay Buchholz (574). Pulling a win will be tough for either starter and we could something similar to Cobb’s last outing where he and Fister battled for nearly eight full innings and the bullpen pulled the win for TB.

Homer Bailey, CIN (at CHC) – He had a nice bounce back after getting smashed by Cleveland by allowing just three over seven innings to the Rockies. All three came in the second inning and then he threw five more sharp innings. Sadly the bullpen gave away his win. Bailey handled the Cubs back on May 25th, allowing two runs on five hits and three walks in six innings of work with eight strikeouts. They aren’t a terrible offense against righties as the left-handed side of their platoons have excelled this year, but middle of the lineup would-be threats like Starlin Castro and Alfonso Soriano have massively disappointed this year.

Julio Teheran, ATL (at SD) – His near-no-hitter earned the attention, but he’s now gone eight starts since allowing more than three runs and the strikeouts have ramped up in his last three with 25 in just 21.3 innings. The one-time uber-prospect is showing why he was so highly touted in the minor leagues. The Padres give Teheran a fifth straight friendly matchup and they pair it with a friendly environment at Petco Park.

r.a.%20dickey

R.A. Dickey, TOR (at CWS) – He was brilliant in San Francisco last time out, but this is more about his facing the anemic White Sox offense than it is putting a ton of stock in one outing against a struggling offense. Not every outlet has adjusted Dickey’s price to something commensurate with his 4.66 ERA and 1.8 K/BB making it tough to invest, especially with so many quality options. I think a lot of his issues are tied to the back/neck soreness and the problem with something like that is we simply won’t know when it crops up. It’s like Dan Haren last year with his back/hip. He’d be excellent for a spell and then getting his face smashed in for a start or two. Big talent and quality opponent, but I’d be less-inclined to dive in at those aforementioned sites that still have his price up near the top.

Ricky Nolasco, MIA (v. MIL) – Since his worst of the year on May 14th when he allowed six earned in five innings to the Reds: 2.17 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 25% K, 6% BB, and 4.0 K/BB rate in 29 innings. Of course he is just 1-1 in those four starts thanks to an awful supporting cast both in the bullpen and the lineup. With Giancarlo Stanton and Logan Morrison returning, hopefully the latter is getting some more punch and can support the good outings the lowly Marlins do get, including those from Nolasco. He has some sneaky upside, but I would be careful with him at the sites that heavily reward wins because they can be so sketchy with Miami.

USE CAUTION:

Scott Feldman, CHC (v. CIN) – Feldman has undoubtedly been impressive this year with a sub-3.00 ERA, but he has one bad outing in his last nine and yes, it was against Cincy. I’m still having trouble fully trusting him despite some solid component stats. He’s got a great groundball rate, too, but he is still allowing home runs at a decent clip (0.95 HR/9). I just prefer him against more favorable matchups than this one.

Jason Marquis, SD (v. ATL) – He can rip off a great start at any given moment against any type of opponent which makes him incredibly risky. He’s only given up more than three runs twice, but his component stats are terrible with a 15% K rate and 13% BB rate in 70 innings. Each of his pitches is allowing at least a 780 OPS except his seldom-used changeup. But he is at home and his season ERA is still just 3.73 so there is at least some appeal.

Yovani Gallardo, MIL (at MIA) – After only striking out more than three batters once in his first five outings (good for a 13% K rate), Gallardo hasn’t dipped below four in any single outing with 43 in his last 44.7 innings (22% K rate). Of course, the ERA has been terrible throughout. If he can’t thwart the Marlins handily, then we have a serious problem. His price is heavily depressed at a few outlets, but everyone will probably jump on him at those places so that mitigates the potential upside. I’m still treating him as a wait-and-see.

Wade Miley, ARI (at LAD) – Miley had a decent bounce back after back-to-back 7 ER outings as he held the Cards to three in 6.7 innings, but they did get 11 hits. I’d find more upside here if his teammates weren’t facing Kershaw on the other end. I love the price and the talent, but both disasters were against weak hitting teams (SD, CHC) so I can’t even take solace in him facing the Dodgers and bank on a decent quality start even if he doesn’t win.

Dylan Axelrod, CWS (v. TOR) – File him away as a decent upside play going forward, but probably not tonight against the Jays. Axelrod doesn’t miss many bats and this is the last team you want to offer plenty of contact to as they have a top 10 SLG and OPS against righties.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

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PARK FACTORS: June 10th, 2013

PITCHER PARK PARK-R PARK-HR PARK-LHB PARK-RHB
Weaver Camden Yards 1.012 1.243 1.120 1.001
Garcia Camden Yards 1.012 1.243 1.120 1.001
Lackey Tropicana Field 1.007 0.865 1.016 0.959
Cobb Tropicana Field 1.007 0.865 1.016 0.959
Gallardo Marlins Park 0.867 0.806 0.996 0.837
Nolasco Marlins Park 0.867 0.806 0.996 0.837
Bailey Wrigley Field 1.39 1.187 1.089 0.994
Feldman Wrigley Field 1.39 1.187 1.089 0.994
Kazmir Rangers Ballpark 0.941 1.066 1.019 1.005
Lindblom Rangers Ballpark 0.941 1.066 1.019 1.005
Fister Kauffman Stadium 0.974 0.955 0.961 0.974
Guthrie Kauffman Stadium 0.974 0.955 0.961 0.974
Dickey U.S. Cellular Field 0.878 1.022 0.898 0.847
Axelrod U.S. Cellular Field 0.878 1.022 0.898 0.847
Keuchel Safeco Field 0.923 0.676 0.981 0.953
Iwakuma Safeco Field 0.923 0.676 0.981 0.953
Teheran Petco Park 0.882 0.945 1.072 0.876
Marquis Petco Park 0.882 0.945 1.072 0.876
Miley Dodger Stadium 0.878 0.957 0.978 0.930
Kershaw Dodger Stadium 0.878 0.957 0.978 0.930

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: June 10th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.

Site FANDUEL DRAFTSTREET DAILYJOUST DRAFTDAY DRAFTKINGS FANTASYFEUD STARSTREET
Name Salary Top Salary Top Salary Top Salary Top Salary Top Salary Top Salary Top
Weaver $7,700 83% $15,022 81% $372K 87% $12,850 66% $9,500 77% $102K 76% $30,600 82%
Garcia $4,900 53% $8,313 45% $293K 69% $6,050 31% $5,000 41% $62K 47% $17,100 46%
Lackey $6,300 68% $12,691 68% $312K 73% $12,250 63% $8,200 67% $97K 72% $25,900 70%
Cobb $7,800 84% $15,176 82% $413K 97% $14,750 76% $9,500 77% $116K 87% $31,000 84%
Gallardo $6,700 72% $11,616 63% $217K 51% $13,350 69% $11,000 89% $72K 54% $29,400 79%
Nolasco $6,800 73% $12,452 67% $317K 74% $10,200 53% $7,800 63% $99K 74% $25,800 70%
Bailey $7,300 78% $13,278 72% $336K 79% $15,200 78% $8,800 72% $93K 70% $26,400 71%
Feldman $6,100 66% $10,446 56% $289K 68% $10,300 53% $7,100 58% $88K 66% $18,800 51%
Kazmir $5,700 61% $8,259 45% $238K 56% $6,950 36% $7,300 59% $67K 50% $21,900 59%
Lindblom $3,000 32% NA NA $166K 39% $6,900 36% $5,000 41% NA NA NA NA
Fister $7,000 75% $14,836 80% $331K 78% $14,400 74% $8,700 71% $96K 72% $30,400 82%
Guthrie $5,900 63% $8,447 46% $302K 71% $8,250 43% $7,000 57% $63K 47% $21,900 59%
Dickey $7,000 75% $11,963 64% $329K 77% $12,700 65% $9,500 77% $100K 75% $25,100 68%
Axelrod $5,300 57% $7,564 41% $255K 60% $9,600 49% $5,000 41% $70K 52% $19,400 52%
Keuchel $5,200 56% $8,690 47% $263K 62% $7,200 37% $5,000 41% $84K 63% $19,100 51%
Iwakuma $8,100 87% $18,556 100% $426K 100% $17,400 90% $12,200 99% $134K 100% $33,100 89%
Teheran $6,900 74% $14,266 77% $350K 82% $13,850 71% $7,100 58% $121K 91% $29,500 80%
Marquis $5,500 59% $9,131 49% $260K 61% $8,750 45% $7,100 58% $80K 60% $18,200 49%
Miley $6,200 67% $8,362 45% $181K 42% $9,050 47% $6,800 55% $69K 52% $23,000 62%
Kershaw $9,300 100% $18,098 98% $364K 85% $19,400 100% $12,300 100% $122K 91% $37,100 100%

About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.