Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 24th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heaney | MIA | PHI | |||||||||
| Buchanan | PHI | MIA | 28.2 | 5.97 | 3.84 | 1.38 | 16.8% | 4.0% | 2.20 | 1.29 | |
| Quintana | CWS | BAL | 83.2 | 3.98 | 3.76 | 1.36 | 46.2% | 19.3% | 7.0% | 0.43 | 1.59 |
| Gonzalez | BAL | CWS | 63.1 | 4.41 | 4.06 | 1.43 | 40.0% | 19.9% | 8.3% | 1.42 | 0.94 |
| Phelps | NYY | TOR | 58.1 | 4.32 | 4.18 | 1.43 | 14.3% | 19.4% | 9.7% | 0.77 | 1.11 |
| Buehrle | TOR | NYY | 94.2 | 2.28 | 4.46 | 1.23 | 76.9% | 14.2% | 6.7% | 0.38 | 1.28 |
| Locke | PIT | TBR | 20.1 | 3.98 | 2.84 | 0.95 | 50.0% | 21.8% | 1.3% | 0.44 | 1.61 |
| Archer | TBR | PIT | 79.1 | 3.40 | 3.83 | 1.38 | 53.8% | 20.8% | 9.4% | 0.34 | 1.81 |
| Kazmir | OAK | NYM | 88 | 2.05 | 3.47 | 0.98 | 61.5% | 20.9% | 5.8% | 0.51 | 1.44 |
| Colon | NYM | OAK | 84.2 | 4.15 | 3.66 | 1.27 | 41.7% | 18.8% | 3.6% | 1.06 | 1.02 |
| Bailey | CIN | CHC | 84.2 | 4.68 | 3.56 | 1.44 | 30.8% | 20.7% | 7.6% | 1.28 | 1.89 |
| Arrieta | CHC | CIN | 43 | 2.09 | 3.16 | 1.26 | 28.6% | 24.6% | 7.8% | 0.21 | 2.10 |
| Smyly | DET | TEX | 60.1 | 3.58 | 4.10 | 1.33 | 44.4% | 20.1% | 9.1% | 1.34 | 0.91 |
| Lewis | TEX | DET | 63.1 | 5.97 | 4.59 | 1.87 | 16.8% | 8.6% | 0.99 | 0.73 | |
| Zimmermann | WAS | MIL | 84.2 | 2.98 | 3.26 | 1.18 | 38.5% | 20.7% | 4.4% | 0.64 | 1.68 |
| Gallardo | MIL | WAS | 84.2 | 3.51 | 3.82 | 1.25 | 46.2% | 19.2% | 7.9% | 1.17 | 1.73 |
| Kershaw | LAD | KCR | 55.1 | 2.93 | 1.89 | 1.07 | 50.0% | 32.0% | 3.6% | 0.65 | 2.38 |
| Duffy | KCR | LAD | 54 | 2.83 | 4.41 | 1.11 | 42.9% | 18.8% | 9.9% | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| Harang | ATL | HOU | 84.1 | 3.20 | 3.86 | 1.27 | 76.9% | 22.5% | 9.1% | 0.43 | 0.88 |
| Feldman | HOU | ATL | 61 | 3.98 | 4.36 | 1.31 | 50.0% | 12.3% | 6.0% | 0.89 | 1.78 |
| Miller | STL | COL | 84.1 | 3.42 | 4.70 | 1.31 | 23.1% | 17.0% | 10.7% | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| De La Rosa | COL | STL | 74.1 | 4.12 | 4.15 | 1.27 | 38.5% | 18.9% | 10.3% | 1.21 | 1.79 |
| Masterson | CLE | ARI | 82 | 5.05 | 3.98 | 1.52 | 42.9% | 20.1% | 11.7% | 0.55 | 2.82 |
| Miley | ARI | CLE | 93.2 | 4.71 | 3.57 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 21.6% | 7.1% | 1.54 | 1.42 |
| Gibson | MIN | LAA | 76 | 3.55 | 4.55 | 1.26 | 50.0% | 11.9% | 7.8% | 0.47 | 1.89 |
| Wilson | LAA | MIN | 92.2 | 3.50 | 3.58 | 1.18 | 53.8% | 23.3% | 9.6% | 0.87 | 1.83 |
| Peavy | BOS | SEA | 87.1 | 4.53 | 4.37 | 1.45 | 38.5% | 17.7% | 8.7% | 1.34 | 1.01 |
| Ramirez | SEA | BOS | 42.2 | 5.27 | 4.55 | 1.66 | 25.0% | 19.2% | 11.4% | 1.90 | 0.93 |
| Hahn | SDP | SFG | 9.2 | 3.72 | 3.45 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 11.9% | 1.86 | 1.43 | |
| Hudson | SFG | SDP | 89.1 | 1.81 | 3.25 | 0.98 | 75.0% | 17.0% | 3.7% | 0.40 | 2.40 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (at KC) – What can I really say that is going to sway you to use him? Basically if you have some budget bats you’re looking to use, then it’s a great time deploy them so you can afford Kershaw. He takes his crack at Johnny Vander Meer in KC against a team hitting .244 against lefties (22nd in MLB) with a .291 wOBA (27th).
Scott Kazmir OAK (at NYM) – This is just insane. His career was dead! Unquestionably dead… or so it seemed. Now he’s leading the AL in ERA, WHIP, and hits per nine with a 9-2 record. That’s why this game is so amazing. And now we get a fun matchup which pits two guys against their former teams. Kaz never pitched for the Mets, but he was drafted by them. Meanwhile, he essentially replaced Colon as Oakland’s out-of-nowhere stud. Kazmir hasn’t shown the elite strikeout rate he used to have, but I think everything else he does has more than made up for it.
Jake Arrieta CHC (v. CIN) – Whoa, where’d this come from? Once a blue-chip prospect for Baltimore, the 28-year old did some solid work for the Cubs last year after his trade over, but he has ramped it up significantly so far this season with a 1.98 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 50 IP. He has career-bests across the board which is justifying a lot of this early excellent work even though it also comes with a sparkling 84% LOB rate. He has a 0.45 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, and 27 Ks in his last three starts spanning 20 IP. This Reds lineup is whole and playing better of late, but Arrieta has been unfazed by any competition lately.
Tim Hudson SF (v. SD) – Man, we’ve got some microscopic ERAs going on Tuesday, huh? That said, I trust Hudson’s least of all as I just don’t see a 2.39 ERA as sustainable with his skills. None of his metrics are particularly egregious – 0.6 HR/9, .271 BABIP, and 80% LOB rate – but he just allows too much contact (15.8% K rate) to really stay that low ERA-wise. Any regression shouldn’t be too severe, though, as he plays to a low-3.00s ERA if you look at the skills indicators (3.21 FIP, 3.37 SIERA) and if the regression is in fact coming, it’s likely to stay away for at least another outing as he gets the inept Padres. He’s dropped a 2.30 ERA on them in 15.7 IP so far this season.
Bartolo Colon NYM (v. OAK) – Colon dug himself a large hole, but he’s really starting to climb out of it. Since the last of his three disasters this year (5.7 IP/6 ER in the Bronx), he’s gone six straight without allowing more than 2 ER. In that time he has a 1.66 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 3.9 K:BB ratio powered by just eight walks in that span.
SOLID BUYS:
Jordan Zimmermann WAS (at MIL) – After an un-Zimm-like May during which he allowed 10, 8, 7, and 8 hits in a four start span where he didn’t go more than 6 IP in any outing, he’s rebounded in June to allow 17 H in 32 IP yielding a 0.84 ERA with 27 Ks and just 3 BBs. In short, he’s back. The Brewers can be tough on righties, but JZ is matchup-proof when he’s right. The tough matchup definitely bumped him down a few spots, but I’d still trust him here.
Chris Archer TB (v. PIT) – This Pittsburgh offense is surging of late as they’ve continued that trend against Alex Cobb early on Monday night (through 3 IP when this was written) so Archer isn’t a lock to dominate on Tuesday. He’s been on a major roll of late with a 0.89 ERA in his last seven starts which includes four scoreless outings. Even if you add the five unearned runs from his outing in Houston, he’s still only at 1.99 in 40.7 IP along with 43 Ks and a 1.15 WHIP. I’d only use Zimm or Archer if I had to adjust my lineup after building the foundation – maybe one of your hitters isn’t in the lineup or you get to your last pick or two and realize you don’t have enough money to get anyone meaningful so you have to trim some cash on the mound and go from Kershaw to Zimmermann or Kazmir to Archer (or whatever the scenario would be at your preferred outlet).
Homer Bailey CIN (at CHC) – He has been better lately, but still not at the level we expected coming into the season. He died out a bit late in each of his last two starts, but he still has a passable 3.69 ERA in his last six with 35 Ks in 39 IP of work. He’s handled the Cubs well since 2012 with a 2.58 ERA in 52.3 IP of work.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Jeff Locke PIT (at TB) – The Rays have been dumped by lesser lefties than Locke this year such as Randy Wolf and Vidal Nuno not to mention guys like Wei-Yin Chen, Drew Pomeranz, Roenis Elias, and Jason Vargas, who Locke is probably on a par with at the very least. He struggled in his season debut in a spot start against SF, but he’s returned in June with three gems yielding a 2.14 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in 21 IP. He’s never missed many bats, but he keeps the ball down and so far this year he’s allowing nothing for free with just two walks.
Danny Duffy KC (v. LAD) – If you like to focus on the pitcher win when you’re picking your arms, then you might want to look elsewhere with Duffy’s teammates having to face Kershaw, but if you want a quality outing on the cheap, Duffy should be able to deliver. Plus, he has the upside for a huge outing like his 7 IP/0 ER gem against the White Sox with 9 Ks back on June 14th. The Dodgers are 24th in the league against lefties with a .296 wOBA and their 22% strikeout rate is 8th-highest in the league.
Andrew Heaney MIA (at PHI) – Heaney held his own in his MLB debut, though he was overshadowed by a Zack Wheeler masterpiece. We are going to see ups and downs with Heaney if he stays up the rest of the year, but a Mets-Phillies two-step to start your career is what we like to call a soft landing. Heaney should still be quite cheap at most outlets, even with six scoreless under his belt.
Erasmo Ramirez SEA (v. BOS) – He’s been far from perfect, but Ramirez is riding a streak of three scoreless starts in a row. He’s walked entirely too many with 11 in 15.7 IP, but he’s only allowed 9 hits which is why he’s been able to survive with so many free passes. He hasn’t been going deep into these outings, either, but you don’t need 7-8 IP from value plays. Five strong will get the job done when you’re buying one of the five or six cheapest arms for the day.
Drew Smyly DET (at TEX) – I’m surprised his price has remained depressed as he’s gotten back on track in June after a rough finish to his May. He has a 1.89 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in three June starts, going at least six in all of them. He’s only fanned 12, but still has a healthy 3.0 K:BB ratio in his 19 IP of work. A trip to Texas isn’t as scary as it used to be as they continue to hemorrhage starters from their lineup.
Wade Miley ARI (v. CLE) – As good as Cleveland is against righties, they’re almost equally as bad against lefties making this is a nice spot to jump on a cheap Miley. Miley’s had a rough year, allowing too many homers for anybody’s liking, but an 18% HR/FB rate is at least partly to blame. His 3.45 xFIP says better days are likely ahead. Meanwhile, his career-best 22% strikeout rate has been overshadowed by his poor results elsewhere.
Jesse Hahn SD (at SF) – A tough debut didn’t deter Hahn, who has bounced back with back-to-back scoreless* efforts with 14 Ks in 13 IP. The impressive righty gets a nice challenge spot here against the Giants. While they aren’t a powerhouse offensively, they are markedly better than the Mets and Mariners. They are pretty close to the Pirates, who smacked Hahn around in that debut, but I think we can give him a pass to MLB debut jitters there. I’ll be interested to see how he handles a tougher test with some success under his belt. (*OK, he allowed 1 R to SEA, but it was unearned)
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Shelby Miller STL (at COL)
- Kyle Gibson MIN (at LAA)
- Miguel Gonzalez BAL (v. CWS)
- Colby Lewis TEX (v. DET)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heaney | 0.260 | 0.739 | |||||||||
| Buchanan | 0.327 | 6.17 | 0.399 | 5.82 | 0.256 | 0.722 | 1.360 | 5.97 | 0.128 | 92.00 | 64.1% |
| Quintana | 0.321 | 3.88 | 0.301 | 3.61 | 0.264 | 0.724 | 1.350 | 3.98 | 0.123 | 103.86 | 61.8% |
| Gonzalez | 0.313 | 3.49 | 0.337 | 4.40 | 0.261 | 0.733 | 1.420 | 4.41 | 0.116 | 90.08 | 62.8% |
| Phelps | 0.312 | 3.86 | 0.362 | 5.87 | 0.263 | 0.766 | 1.420 | 4.32 | 0.097 | 58.76 | 60.8% |
| Buehrle | 0.313 | 3.75 | 0.325 | 3.52 | 0.265 | 0.705 | 1.230 | 2.28 | 0.075 | 101.07 | 63.0% |
| Locke | 0.334 | 4.67 | 0.297 | 3.40 | 0.239 | 0.673 | 0.930 | 3.98 | 0.205 | 80.33 | 70.5% |
| Archer | 0.318 | 3.73 | 0.270 | 2.76 | 0.258 | 0.715 | 1.370 | 3.40 | 0.114 | 95.93 | 62.4% |
| Kazmir | 0.269 | 3.12 | 0.309 | 3.43 | 0.252 | 0.674 | 0.980 | 2.05 | 0.151 | 93.00 | 65.7% |
| Colon | 0.306 | 3.37 | 0.286 | 2.75 | 0.256 | 0.754 | 1.260 | 4.15 | 0.152 | 100.77 | 67.8% |
| Bailey | 0.347 | 4.22 | 0.275 | 3.58 | 0.223 | 0.640 | 1.430 | 4.68 | 0.131 | 101.71 | 64.2% |
| Arrieta | 0.285 | 3.27 | 0.315 | 4.11 | 0.248 | 0.687 | 1.260 | 2.09 | 0.168 | 91.38 | 62.7% |
| Smyly | 0.205 | 1.93 | 0.342 | 3.57 | 0.286 | 0.786 | 1.330 | 3.58 | 0.11 | 84.62 | 63.9% |
| Lewis | 0.433 | 6.61 | 0.350 | 5.52 | 0.276 | 0.765 | 1.860 | 5.97 | 0.083 | 96.17 | 62.7% |
| Zimmermann | 0.302 | 3.40 | 0.278 | 2.99 | 0.264 | 0.732 | 1.170 | 2.98 | 0.163 | 89.07 | 68.8% |
| Gallardo | 0.314 | 4.14 | 0.316 | 3.90 | 0.235 | 0.673 | 1.240 | 3.51 | 0.113 | 100.79 | 60.5% |
| Kershaw | 0.196 | 1.24 | 0.249 | 2.18 | 0.246 | 0.665 | 1.070 | 2.93 | 0.284 | 90.44 | 69.5% |
| Duffy | 0.195 | 0.49 | 0.295 | 3.24 | 0.221 | 0.656 | 1.110 | 2.83 | 0.09 | 62.29 | 61.8% |
| Harang | 0.352 | 5.17 | 0.317 | 4.47 | 0.229 | 0.681 | 1.270 | 3.20 | 0.134 | 102.14 | 64.1% |
| Feldman | 0.304 | 3.85 | 0.308 | 3.92 | 0.238 | 0.659 | 1.310 | 3.98 | 0.063 | 92.55 | 64.2% |
| Miller | 0.335 | 4.03 | 0.273 | 2.57 | 0.280 | 0.783 | 1.300 | 3.42 | 0.062 | 94.21 | 61.9% |
| De La Rosa | 0.236 | 2.65 | 0.350 | 4.33 | 0.233 | 0.650 | 1.260 | 4.12 | 0.087 | 90.29 | 59.7% |
| Masterson | 0.335 | 4.21 | 0.259 | 3.64 | 0.257 | 0.706 | 1.520 | 5.05 | 0.084 | 91.13 | 61.4% |
| Miley | 0.307 | 4.47 | 0.332 | 3.83 | 0.241 | 0.648 | 1.290 | 4.71 | 0.145 | 99.07 | 64.4% |
| Gibson | 0.339 | 4.25 | 0.290 | 4.84 | 0.257 | 0.731 | 1.260 | 3.55 | 0.041 | 92.69 | 60.1% |
| Wilson | 0.234 | 2.61 | 0.324 | 3.72 | 0.240 | 0.671 | 1.180 | 3.50 | 0.136 | 111.43 | 59.2% |
| Peavy | 0.330 | 4.49 | 0.316 | 4.23 | 0.234 | 0.678 | 1.440 | 4.53 | 0.09 | 102.79 | 63.7% |
| Ramirez | 0.361 | 5.05 | 0.346 | 5.17 | 0.244 | 0.686 | 1.640 | 5.27 | 0.078 | 85.78 | 60.8% |
| Hahn | 0.245 | 3.18 | 0.360 | 4.50 | 0.253 | 0.708 | 1.240 | 3.72 | 0.167 | 83.00 | 62.0% |
| Hudson | 0.309 | 3.68 | 0.273 | 2.98 | 0.218 | 0.616 | 0.97 | 1.81 | 0.133 | 93.77 | 67.0% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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