Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 5th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-06-05 20:26:22

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: June 5th, 2013

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

This was shaping up to be a solid crop of arms when I first glanced at the slate, but then I saw all the day games and realized that they ate up several worthwhile selections including Hisashi Iwakuma, Corey Kluber, Cole Hamels (struggling, but facing Miami), CC Sabathia, and even Wandy Rodriguez and Julio Teheran who face eachother and are both having strong seasons. Not to mention the upside of guys like R.A. Dickey and Yovani Gallardo.

Yesterday wasn’t too bad with Sanchez showing that the strong offense that Tampa Bay displayed in May was no match for him. Peavy was the only bust of the top end and he left due to injury. The “Best of the Rest” pool really came through as Tillman, Bailey, and Pettibone all threw well, though only Tillman got the ever important win. I’ll take my medicine on suggesting you not sleep on Lilly and you should sleep on Feldman, but I also said pass entirely on Moore and gave you Hefner. I don’t feel at all bad about missing with Phelps, Lincecum, or even Harrell as the risk was just too severe to play with that fire and Grimm showed you how bad the downside can be with those matchup risks.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Clayton Kershaw, LAD (v. SD) – How deep do you really need me to go here? He is no worse than the game’s second-best pitcher and checks out as the very best for many folks plus he gets to face the Padres – a team he dominates.

Johnny Cueto, CIN (v. COL) –

UPDATE: JOHNNY CUETO SCRATCHED FROM TODAY’S START – PEDRO VILLAREAL IS STARTING (Put in your Rockies bats!)

The starters have gotten progressively more difficult for the Rockies in this series. Bronson Arroyo was excellent against them and he is the worst of the trio. Homer Bailey had a rough start giving up three in the second before settling down and now Cueto gets his shot. He’s jumped right back into form after an injury that cost him a month. The competition hasn’t been tough, but he’s posted a 1.80 ERA and 0.75 WHIP against the Mets, Cubs, and Pirates. The Rockies will provide a bigger challenge, but their success on the road has died down after a fast start in April.

BEST THE REST:

Jason Vargas, LAA (v. CHC) – Vargas is positively on fire right now. He’s gone seven-plus and allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last four yielding a 1.91 ERA in 28.3 innings. He had an early May hiccup in Houston where the Astros got him for five in 5.7 innings, but that didn’t stop him from having a 2.30 ERA in 43 May innings. If you stretch back to his final two starts of April, he has a 2.48 ERA in his last 58 innings. He’s been especially dominant at home with a 2.53 ERA and as if he needed anymore aspects working in his favor, the Cubs have a 604 OPS on the road against lefties this year – second-worst in MLB.

Doug Fister, DET (v. TB) – While the Rays can definitely hit, this matchup does set up well for Fister given one of his strengths: facing lefties. He’s allowed just a 569 OPS against them and the Rays offense is predicated on their left-handed bats excelling. Kelly Johnson, Matt Joyce, and James Loney (somehow) have all posted 900+ OPS marks against righties with Joyce leading the charge at 930. If Fister can neutralize them, he has a great shot at putting up several goose eggs tonight.

Alex Cobb, TB (at DET) – Similar to his counterpart Fister, Cobb smothers lefties to the tune of a sub-600 OPS. It’s not quite as advantageous for him as it is Fister, though, as the Tigers have just one primary bat from the left side: Prince Fielder. Andy Dirks and Alex Avila are southpaws as well, but neither is hitting particularly well nor carries the same magnitude of Fielder (or even an equivalent level of importance to the three Rays lefties mentioned earlier). Since that weird start against the Padres where he fanned 13 but lasted just 4.7 IP, Cobb has steamrolled through the AL East posting a 1.71 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in 21 innings over three starts against the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Yankees. The Tigers ran roughshod over Matt Moore last night thanks in large part to six walks in his two innings of work. Cobb yields just a 5% BB rate so the free passes won’t be so frequent. We could see a real pitcher’s duel here tonight.

Dan Haren, WAS (v. NYM) – Haren has long been one of my favorite pitchers in the game, but he has become tough to figure out the last two years thanks in large part to a balky back that flares up from time-to-time. He’s working off of back-to-back strong starts including one against the potent O’s lineup and now he can run it to three against the Mets who are fourth-worst in MLB with a 670 OPS against righties. It all comes down to keeping the ball in the park because his component stats remain excellent. His 5.7 K/BB is fifth in baseball as his 3.2% BB rate is tied for third with teammate Jordan Zimmermann. Watch his command in the zone early and that will give you an indication of the night you are in for, but I like him here, especially with his prices low.

USE CAUTION:

John Lackey, BOS (v. TEX) – Lackey has been tremendous for the Sox this year and he’s been especially filthy at home with a 0.90 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 20 innings over three starts. The Rangers got him a bit in Texas back on May 4th when he squared off against Ogando as they scored three in five innings on nine base runners, but he’s been lights out since with a 2.67 ERA in five starts. I still think the Texas bats can explode and do to the Sox what was done to them yesterday so I don’t love this matchup, but the price for Lackey is still low which makes him at least somewhat appealing.

Matt Garza, CHC (at LAA) – He’s been solid in his first three starts with two good and one bad. The strikeout rate is at a career-high 24% level and even though it’s a small sample, it’s not much higher than last year (22.6%) or 2011 (23.5%). Since the start of May, the Angels are pounding right-handers to the tune of an 810 OPS, including an 803 at home. The potent Angels offense is what worries me most about Garza here as he’s actually looked sharp. Plus the Angels are actually throwing one of their few good starters which cuts into Garza’s win probably which is already low just by virtue of his being a Cub.

Alexi Ogando, TEX (at BOS) – Even if the Red Sox hadn’t dropped 17 runs last night, I would preach caution with this outing for Ogando. It’s his first off the DL in a tough venue and against a tough opponent. He was great against the Red Sox at home in early May limiting them to just a run in six innings and the price is nice given his overall talent, but I think the risk associated with him today is still a little too high. I would feel better if it weren’t his first start back from a DL trip.

Wade Miley, ARI (at STL) – Miley has struggled badly of late as back-to-back 7 ER outings pushed his ERA from 3.67 to 5.01 in just 10.7 innings of work. In fact, he gave up 6 ER on May 13th meaning he’s allowed 22 of his 36 ER in a four-start stretch. He entered that May 13th outing with a 2.93 ERA so something changed to set him on this path of destruction to everyone’s fantasy team ERA. He has an opportunity to get back on track today facing a Cardinals lineup that has just a 649 OPS against southpaws – 26th in the league.

And that isn’t just built on one bad month as they had a 640 OPS or worse in April and May. A 723 OPS surge in a short June sample has pushed them up to their current mark. Miley’s breaking stuff is the key tonight. Prior to May 13th he allowed a 457 OPS with it and that ballooned to a NSFW 1215 in the four-start stretch of destruction. This is your big money-saving upside play of the day.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

Jeremy Guthrie, KC (v. MIN) – I realize his composite numbers aren’t too bad and he was sharp against a solid Cardinals lineup last time out, but his season breaks down as a 0.50 ERA in 15 IP against the White Sox and a 4.68 ERA in 57.7 IP against everyone else. The Twins studs absolutely own him, too.

• Joe Kelly, STL
• Freddy Garcia, BAL
• Jason Marquis, SD
• Dillon Gee, NYM
• Jon Garland, COL
• P.J. Walters, MIN
• Dallas Keuchel, HOU

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PARK FACTORS: June 5th, 2013

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: June 5th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.