Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 1st, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
For a description of each stat below and the tiers used for them, check out this pop up window FAQ Page by clicking here
Performance and Talent Statistics: May 1st, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | IMP% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diamond | MIN | 16.2 | 4.32 | 4.02 | 1.56 | 0.3 | 0 | 14.5% | 2.9% | 1.08 | 1.37 |
| Sanchez | DET | 33.2 | 1.34 | 2.71 | 1.04 | 0.8 | 0 | 30.6% | 6.7% | 0.00 | 1.21 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | 36 | 2.00 | 4.08 | 0.86 | 0.8 | 0 | 13.7% | 5.0% | 0.50 | 1.97 |
| Maholm | ATL | 30 | 3.30 | 3.66 | 1.20 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 22.2% | 8.7% | 0.30 | 1.91 |
| Wilson | LAA | 29.1 | 4.30 | 4.51 | 1.53 | 0.2 | 0 | 20.3% | 12.8% | 0.92 | 1.55 |
| Milone | OAK | 32 | 3.38 | 3.83 | 1.22 | 0.6 | 0 | 19.3% | 4.4% | 0.84 | 0.88 |
| Gee | NYM | 25.2 | 5.96 | 4.59 | 1.52 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 15.7% | 7.8% | 1.75 | 1.03 |
| LeBlanc | MIA | 24.2 | 6.20 | 4.77 | 1.78 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 15.7% | 7.8% | 1.46 | 0.70 |
| Lee | PHI | 35.2 | 3.03 | 3.52 | 1.04 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 21.0% | 3.5% | 0.76 | 0.89 |
| Bauer | CLE | 5 | 5.40 | 9.58 | 1.80 | 0 | 0 | 8.7% | 30.4% | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Gomez | PIT | 13.2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.57 |
| Burgos | MIL | 11 | 3.27 | 5.16 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 | 9.1% | 4.6% | 0.82 | 0.94 |
| Bedard | HOU | 14.2 | 10.32 | 3.88 | 2.21 | 0 | 0.25 | 28.8% | 13.6% | 3.97 | 0.67 |
| Phelps | NYY | 17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.21 |
| Bailey | CIN | 32 | 2.81 | 3.15 | 1.06 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 25.4% | 7.1% | 0.84 | 1.67 |
| Lynn | STL | 29 | 3.10 | 3.49 | 1.14 | 0.6 | 0 | 28.1% | 10.7% | 0.62 | 1.00 |
| Buchholz | BOS | 37.2 | 1.19 | 3.27 | 1.01 | 1 | 0 | 27.1% | 9.0% | 0.24 | 1.56 |
| Buehrle | TOR | 28.1 | 6.35 | 4.33 | 1.52 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 14.6% | 4.6% | 1.91 | 1.11 |
| Cashner | SDP | 19.1 | 2.70 | 2.68 | 0.90 | 0.5 | 0 | 27.0% | 5.4% | 0.90 | 1.56 |
| Feldman | CHC | 20.2 | 3.92 | 5.24 | 1.65 | 0.25 | 0 | 12.1% | 12.1% | 1.31 | 1.95 |
| Sale | CWS | 33 | 4.09 | 3.70 | 1.15 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 22.2% | 7.4% | 1.36 | 1.17 |
| Tepesch | TEX | 21.1 | 2.53 | 3.44 | 1.08 | 0.5 | 0 | 16.3% | 3.5% | 0.84 | 2.17 |
| Lincecum | SFG | 29.2 | 3.64 | 4.12 | 1.35 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 24.8% | 13.2% | 0.91 | 1.45 |
| McCarthy | ARI | 27.2 | 7.48 | 4.12 | 1.77 | 0 | 0.4 | 13.6% | 3.0% | 0.98 | 1.48 |
| Hellickson | TBR | 31.1 | 4.31 | 3.93 | 1.09 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 1.44 | 1.06 |
| Mendoza | KCR | 14 | 6.17 | 4.57 | 1.29 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 18.0% | 12.0% | 0.00 | 1.67 |
| Nicasio | COL | 25.1 | 4.62 | 5.28 | 1.50 | 0.2 | 0 | 12.3% | 11.4% | 1.78 | 1.52 |
| Beckett | LAD | 30.1 | 4.75 | 3.95 | 1.35 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 2.37 | 1.03 |
| Chen | BAL | 32 | 2.53 | 5.38 | 1.00 | 0.4 | 0 | 13.2% | 7.4% | 0.56 | 0.49 |
| Harang | SEA | 12.2 | 11.37 | 4.08 | 1.97 | 18.8% | 6.3% | 4.26 | 0.86 | ||
THE CREAM OF THE CROP:
Jordan Zimmermann, WAS (vs. ATL) – Zimm’s strikeouts are down, but it hasn’t stopped him from being excellent so far this season. In fact, the decrease has made him more pitch efficient and helped him to a pair of complete games including a shutout of the Reds in his last outing. He is doing it with baseball’s best fastball which is yielding a meager 361 OPS in 101 plate appearances. The next best fastball to log 100+ PAs is “Clayton Kershaw(player-profile)”:/players/Clayton_Kershaw-10905’s and he has allowed a 589 OPS on his, still excellent, but pales in comparison.
It’s going to be the proverbial “unstoppable force meets an immovable object” with Zimm and Justin Upton as Upton has logged a 1204 OPS – seventh-best in baseball – against heaters so far this year. If Zimmermann can get ahead with the fastball, he has the slider to put him away. Upton is hitting .167 against sliders with just one of his homers. This will be the most interesting battle of the evening in Atlanta.
Clay Buchholz, BOS (vs. TOR) – The Jays can’t rip both Red Sox aces can they? Of course we also didn’t think the worst OPS in the league against lefties would rip one of the best southpaws in the game so far this year and they did just that. That’s baseball, though. We’re working with probabilities. Buchholz has been brilliant at avoiding the longball this year (0.2 HR/9) which is the quickest way to get beat by the Jays. Expect plenty of cutters to righties and lefties to keep the Jays in the yard.
Cooling the red hot Edwin Encarnacion will be key, too. He’s hitting .333 with a 1033 OPS during an eight game hitting streak with seven homers in 10 hits. All of his Buchholz’s secondary pitches (cutter, change, curve) have given Encarnacion fits so he needs to not get beat with his sinker early in counts as Encarnacion jumps on first pitch fastballs going 7-for-11 with four homers. Buchholz has held EE to a 1-for-15 mark historically, so we’ll see how that trend plays out today.
Wei-Yin Chen, BAL (vs. SEA) – Chen’s flyball tendencies are perfectly suited for a park like Safeco Field, especially this year as he is avoiding the home run (0.56 HR/9 after 1.4 last year) and sending most of the straight up as popups with a 19.6% infield flyball rate. It helps that he’s also facing the 20th-best offense against lefties with one of their big lefty-killers, Franklin Gutierrez, on the disabled list.
Chen hasn’t given up more than three runs yet this year despite facing Oakland (baseball’s top offense by runs), Boston in Fenway (fourth by runs, fifth-most at home), the Dodgers who have the second-best OPS against lefties at 823, and the Yankees who have inexplicably been good, though not quite as much against southpaws. In short, he isn’t getting fat on cupcakes yet he gets one today in the Mariners.
Andrew Cashner, SD (vs. CHC) – The former Cub takes on his old squad and even gets to face the guy he was traded for, Anthony Rizzo. Cashner is throwing the fourth-hardest fastball as a starter at 94.8 MPH behind only Stephen Strasburg, Garrett Richards, and Matt Harvey. He also has movement on it make it tough to square up, but just to make it touch more difficult he’s mixed in his 86 MPH changeup more often this year to keep hitters off balance.
He only has two starts this year, both against the Giants, as he was worked in the bullpen for most of April. He went six innings and threw 83 pitches in his last outing, so he should be given a longer leash this time around of something in the 90s as long as he’s not laboring. As a strikeout pitcher, he can do more damage in six innings than most can, especially against an offense ranked in the lower third of the league. I like him against his former mates.
Cliff Lee, PHI (vs. CLE) – This is a very interesting matchup, not just because Lee is facing his former club, but because they’ve had great success against his two best pitches: the change and cutter. They are baseball’s best against the change with a 932 OPS with league average at 647. Of course, this isn’t just any old changeup, it’s Cliff freakin’ Lee’s. Still, this offense ripped Roy Halladay apart last night and despite their 10-13, they can score with anyone (120 runs, seventh in baseball). The team is also fifth against fastballs with an 860 OPS. Lee is a great pitcher so no one is going to be surprised if he shuts them down, especially on the heels of a 14-run explosion, but he’s got his work cut out for him.
Chris Sale, CWS (vs. TEX) – Sale’s 4.09 ERA is a bit misleading as it might lead some to think he’s had a shaky start in the follow up to his breakout 2012, but it’s really been four great outings and one implosion (8 ER at those hard-hitting Indians). He has a 2.20 ERA in 28.7 innings in his other four starts. He’s made mistakes with his slider too often this year leading to four home runs after allowing three with the pitch all of last year. The Rangers are hitting a meager .174 with a 511 OPS against sliders, but they will crush a mistake so he needs to be sharp. The Rangers fare relatively well against southpaws with a 757 OPS (league average 719), but Sale isn’t a run of the mill lefty. In most spots, his price will be too high for the matchup, but he has the talent to tame the Rangers.
BEST THE REST:
Paul Maholm, ATL (vs. WAS) – If you were buying Maholm at all before his last start, then one bad start against a very potent offense shouldn’t entirely dissuade you. He wasn’t locating anything well and got batted around the yard. That is going to happen to everyone at some point this year, most will have it happen a couple of times. The curveball is going to be Maholm’s best bet from a secondary standpoint against the Nats. If the slider and change are on, then he can have a lot of success, but if either is off, the Nats will rail it. Bryce Harper has been tamed by lefties so far this season hitting a paltry .167 and fanning 26% of the time. In fact, as a team they have a 616 OPS against lefties, 28th in the league. Look for Maholm to get back on track today.
Jeremy Hellickson, TB (vs. KC) – Hellickson has been a bit uneven this year with three strong starts sandwiched by two implosions. He faced a pretty tough slate of Baltimore, at Texas, at Boston, Oakland, and at the White Sox. He has a chance to get back on track facing the 24th-best OPS against righties in the Royals (684). If he can avoid trouble from Billy Butler and Salvador Perez, we should see the Hellickson we’ve grown used to today.
USE CAUTION:
Tim Lincecum, SF (vs. ARI) – You know the risks here. You also know the upside. He’s crushed the Padres in back-to-back outings, but it’s the Padres and it was in the two most favorable parks in the league.
Nick Tepesch, TEX (vs. CWS) – Tepesch has been a bit of fool’s gold running through the Rays, Twins, and Mariners twice. However, the White Sox aren’t exactly good with a 680 OPS against righties. The key will be avoiding trouble with his modest fastball (89-91 MPH from the right side) to get into counts where he can work his curveball and slider.
Josh Beckett, LAD (vs. COL) – The dangerous part about the Rockies this year is that they are raking even outside of Coors Field (787 road OPS) with the most road runs in the National League. Beckett has been mostly solid with only one extremely rough outing (6 ER at Baltimore), but he has only gone more than six once so I’d probably stay away here. The Rockies hit cutters to a 936 OPS, over 200 points better than the 724 league average and that is one of Beckett’s favorite secondary pitches. They crush curveballs (861 OPS, first in MLB) and he has struggled a bit with his at times this year yielding a .296 AVG.
David Phelps, NYY (vs. HOU) – The Astros have shown that you can’t just trot out any old arm against them as they’ve even ripped some solid ones like Phelps’ teammate Andy Pettitte back on Monday. Pettitte is far more talented than Phelps so I wouldn’t necessarily see Phelps an auto-start here. This is also his first start of the season as he’s logged all 17 of his innings out of the bullpen.
Brandon McCarthy, ARI (vs. SF) – He has been brutal this giving up an unthinkable 14.6 H/9, but he’s had the Cardinals, Yankees, Pirates, and Rockies twice for his first five. All of those teams are dangerous, yes even the Pirates (11th in OPS vs. righties). The Giants aren’t known for offense, but McCarthy can make anyone look sharp right now. He’s too good to stay this bad for much longer, but understand the significant risks associated with him.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
- Luis Mendoza, KC
- Juan Nicasio, COL
- Scott Feldman, CHC
- Trevor Bauer, CLE
- Mark Buehrle, TOR
- Erik Bedard, HOU
- Aaron Harang, SEA