Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 3, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-05-03 19:37:11

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

For a description of each stat below and the tiers used for them, check out this pop up window FAQ Page by clicking here

Performance and Talent Statistics: May 3rd, 2013

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Clayton Kershaw, LAD (at SF) – I don’t know how Kershaw ever gives up runs let alone loses games (he’s 3-2). His secondary stuff is so stupid-good that it’s basically unfair. Batters are 4-for-46 against his curveball and slider (.087 AVG) with four singles, three walks, and 25 strikeouts (51% K rate). Does it even matter what the Giants do against those two pitches as a team? Even if they were tops in the league against them (they’re not, lower-third of the league against both), the ones they would’ve beat up certainly don’t compare to Kershaw’s and we saw him dice the team up on Opening Day when he threw a shutout allowing just four hits and fanning seven. If he’s not the most expensive arm at every site, they’ve messed up and you should pounce on the inefficiency. Hell, even with him being the most expensive arm, you should still probably jump on him.

Doug Fister, DET (at HOU) – The Tigers have seven straight games where they have struck out the opponent at least 10 times, an American League, and there is a good chance that Fister goes a long way toward helping them tie the 2012 Brewers in his start tonight. His stuff is overlooked on the team because he is in the same rotation as Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, but he can miss plenty of bats, especially when he’s on.

He has tons of movement on his change and his curveball is just nasty. The Astros are strikeoutiest (new word, go with it) team in the league – though Atlanta is chasing them down – and they are terrible against curveballs striking out 46% of the time against them (5% worse than Atlanta) which plays right into Fister’s hands. They’ve done some damage against changeups with a 766 OPS (fifth in baseball), but they’ve also fanned on them 33% of the time, second-worst just ahead of Atlanta.

Felix Hernandez, SEA (at TOR) – Too often baseball people spend time talking about Hernandez’s declining velocity and worrying about years down the road instead of focusing on the amazing pitcher who stands before them delivering season after season of excellence. Yes, the velo is on a straight decline since coming into the league, it’s called aging. His process may’ve been a touch more aggressive than the normal curve, but the refinement of his incredible secondary arsenal has rendered the lost velocity moot. He’s gone from thrower to pitcher and become one of the unquestioned superstars in the game.

His changeup is a cheat code while his curveball and slider are both formidable weapons as well. Expect the heart of Toronto’s lineup to get a healthy dose of off-speed stuff tonight. Against righties off-speed stuff neither Jose Bautista (577 OPS), Edwin Encarnacion (416), nor Melky Cabrera (305) is over a 600 OPS. In fact, only J.P. Arencibia (931) and Adam Lind (810) are among those active (Jose Reyes is, too).

Matt Moore, TB (at COL) – None of Moore’s three offerings is allowing a .200 AVG and neither of his off-speed pitches is even yielding better than a 250 OPS. His fastball (.180 AVG, 628 OPS), curveball (.071, 250), and changeup (.000, 053) have been virtually unhittable through five starts. That’s why you can have some confidence with him stepping into the lion’s den that is Coors Field. Furthermore, there has been just one implosion start for visiting starters in Coors Field so far this year out of 12 and they weren’t all as good as Moore. There may be a buying opportunity if any sites build even a modest discount for Coors Field.

A.J. Burnett, PIT (vs. WAS) – Did you know that Burnett leads the NL in strikeout rate at 33%? He’s a late-career rebirth with Pittsburgh as his demise with the Yankees was greatly overstated. He’s aged remarkably well holding 97% of his peak velocity (95.6 MPH at age 28) at the age of 36. More than that, he’s leaned heavily on one of the best curveballs in the game and it is currently generating 60% of his punchouts.

For all the talk about how great the Nats were going to be this year, the bats have struggled. I was fully bought in coming into the season and I remain so, but there is no question that they’ve sputtered out of the gate against expectations and the hitting to blame. Their 531 OPS and 35% strikeout rate against righty curveballs will be tested tonight, especially with their only asset against the pitch being a bit hobbled. Bryce Harper has a .385/.429/.615 line again righty curves, but he’s battling a left side injury. Don’t sleep on Burnett as an option tonight.

Mike Minor, ATL (vs. NYM) – Minor has been plagued by home runs throughout his career with a career 1.2 HR/9 rate coming into the season. He has held it in check this year at 0.85 and it has helped him carry over the success from his hot finish to the 2012 season en route to one of the best Aprils in baseball. He has exactly one job tonight: don’t let John Buck beat you. Buck has four of his 800 nine homers against lefties in just eight hits.

Don’t let David Wright beat you, either, but honestly if he does you tip your hat as he’s one of the game’s best, but letting a 32-year old decent-at-best catcher who is in the midst of his best run ever beat you? That’s on you. If Minor wants to become one of the better arms in the game as many believe he can, he needs to show he can maneuver around a lineup that has one or two bats that can beat you and little else.

Jeremy Guthrie, KC (vs. CWS) – This one is easy and it goes like this:

• Guthrie as a Royal against non-White Sox teams: 4.21 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 14% K, and 7% BB in 87.7 innings of work dating back to the middle of last year when he was traded over.
• Guthrie as a Royal against the White Sox: 0.50 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 21% K, 2% BB in 35.7 IP in five starts.

I wouldn’t normally put him anywhere near the cream of the crop, but that kind of success in such a short period of time against one team can’t be blind luck, can it? I’m still a touch worried because it’s Jeremy freakin’ Guthrie, but the price alone will make the upside worth it as most sites aren’t pricing that success in today from what I’ve seen.

BEST THE REST:

CC Sabathia, NYY (vs. OAK) – Every time Sabathia comes close to struggling, there is a rush to panic about him, but then he turns around and throws a gem or two. The velocity drop is the main concern and there is some merit to it considering that it’s going from 92.3 to 89.8 MPH and batters have gone from having success against it (852 OPS in 2012) to pummeling it (959 in 2013). Making matters worse is that Oakland’s offense has been fantastic this year, especially against lefties with an AL-best 816 OPS (second overall to Milwaukee’s 850). Sabathia is still an ace with a trio of excellent secondary pitches so he could roll the A’s over for eight scoreless with 10 Ks in the blink of an eye, but the odds aren’t high for that tonight and this is probably a stay away since the price is certain to be high at every outlet. There are better options, especially when you factor in cost.

Ross Detwiler, WAS (at PIT) – It could be a pitcher’s duel as Detwiler faces off against the third-worst team against lefties according to OPS as the Pirates have a mere 609. If Detwiler had a bit more strikeout aptitude (12.2%), he might’ve made the cream of the crop, but he’s a pitch-to-contact guy relying on a bevy of groundballs (50%) to be turned into outs. Despite the poor overall team performance against southpaws, both Gaby Sanchez (1249 OPS) and Starling Marte (981) have had more than their fair share of success against them. The real shock is that Andrew McCutchen torched lefties last year (1140), but has floundered early on with a meager 600 in a short 24 PA sample.

Wade Miley, ARI (at SD) – I think there is a still feeling of disbelief tied to Miley whether in his daily fantasy prices or how he was priced in standard fantasy leagues back in March, but he has continued plugging away even raising his strikeout rate up to 21% after last year’s 18% mark. Outside of noted lefty-killer Chris Denorfia, the Padres haven’t done too much against southpaws so far this year, plus they’ll be in Petco Park making the start even more appealing for Miley.

Kyle Lohse, MIL (vs. STL) – Lohse doesn’t have one dominant pitch that he relies on, instead he uses his fastball half the time and a pair of his secondary pitches (the change and slider) over 20% of the time each. The curveball gets mixed in here there at seven percent of the time. That kind of mix keep hitters off balance and his impeccable command of all three has allowed them to play up to a level beyond what they would be graded as by a scout. In fact, his command just keeps getting better as he has gone from 5.4% walks in 2011 to 4.4 last year to just 1.7 so far this year. No, he doesn’t rack up many strikeouts, but you don’t have to when you’re in command like this and as pitch-efficient as Lohse.

Shelby Miller, STL (at MIL) – Speaking of command, Miller’s isn’t quite as Lohse’s level, but it is exceptional for a fire-balling rookie known for his strikeout potential. Miller has walked just 8.2% of batters while fanning an impressive 27% in his 30.7 innings so far. He matched Lohse pitch-for-pitch in their April 12th matchup and bested him with seven shutout innings allowing just a single hit with eight strikeout and no walks (Lohse went 7 IP allowing 2 ER on 6 H w/0 BB and 2 K).

So why does Lohse get the slotting over Miller? The toughest thing for a rookie is giving a team a second look so the probability that he gets knocked around in the rematch is higher. Not high, just higher. If anything, they are neck-and-neck as his strikeout potential is so much higher than Lohse that it almost mitigates the implosion risk.

Derek Holland, TEX (vs. BOS) – I love Holland, I really do, but his potential for flaming out is beyond maddening and the Red Sox have been mashing. They have scored the second-most runs in baseball, but the reason I left Holland here and not in the use caution section is because they have been middle of the pack against lefties. Against lefty sliders – Holland’s best pitch – they’ve been even worse with a paltry 227 OPS (second-worst in MLB) striking out 35% of the time. That bodes well for Holland who has held opponents to a .100/.140/.250 line on his slider with a 54% strikeout rate.

USE CAUTION:

Jonathan Pettibone, PHI (vs. MIA) – The rookie’s career is off to a solid start and he gets to face the worst offense in baseball, but he’s still a rookie and these are still major leaguers. Not to mention the fact that he isn’t likely to go deep into the game even if he is succeeding. I like him a bit as a secondary pitcher, but don’t just blindly start because he’s facing the Marlins. Consider that he has a 4.35 ERA in his two starts facing the Pirates and Mets who aren’t exactly the ’27 Yankees.

Justin Masterson, CLE (vs. MIN) – Masterson’s Achilles heel (lefties) has returned with a vengeance in his last three starts. After holding southpaws to a 417 OPS in his first three starts during which he posted 0.41 ERA in 22 innings, he has seen that jump to 1062 in his last three while allowing a 6.38 ERA in 18.3 innings. Minnesota can stack up to eight lefties in their lineup when you consider natural lefties and switch-hitters.

Shaun Marcum, NYM (at ATL) – In a couple of weeks he’d rate higher, but I just don’t know how long they’ll let him pitch as he works his way back from injury. He only has one start and an impromptu relief appearance so far totaling 5.7 innings. He may only go five, but he could log 7-8 strikeouts.

Felix Doubront, BOS (at TEX) – He’s like an earlier version of Holland, who he faces tonight. He can be great at times, but too inconsistent to trust inherently, especially against a tough lineup. His secondary stuff mixes well with the Rangers who hit just .207 against lefty curves and changeups (Doubront allows just a .148 AVG and 389 OPS on the pair combined), but if Doubront brings his poor command tonight, then they leave the yard on him three or four times.

Ricky Nolasco, MIA (at PHI) – He could be a sneaky low-dollar option if you’re looking to pair someone with a Kershaw, Hernandez, or Fister without completely blowing your budget. He’s been solid, if unspectacular in each of his six starts allowing more than three runs just once (4 ER to WAS), but also going more than six innings just once. The Phillies are susceptible to righty sliders, which is Nolasco’s best secondary pitch for strikeouts (though it’s worth noting that he logged just one punchout against the Phils back on April 12th).

*YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

• Jason Vargas, LAA

• Barry Zito, SF

• Dylan Axelrod, CWS

• Jason Marquis, SD

• Miguel Gonzalez, SEA

• A.J. Griffin, OAK

• Bud Norris, HOU

• Pedro Hernandez, MIN

• Jeff Francis, COL