Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 30th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montero | NYM | PHI | 16.1 | 4.96 | 4.17 | 1.43 | 33.3% | 23.6% | 12.5% | 2.20 | 0.70 |
| Burnett | PHI | NYM | 66.2 | 3.51 | 4.23 | 1.44 | 45.5% | 18.2% | 10.6% | 0.81 | 1.98 |
| Nolasco | MIN | NYY | 60.1 | 6.12 | 4.31 | 1.58 | 10.0% | 15.0% | 6.0% | 1.49 | 1.09 |
| Nuno | NYY | MIN | 41 | 5.49 | 4.47 | 1.51 | 28.6% | 17.2% | 9.4% | 1.32 | 0.89 |
| Nicasio | COL | CLE | 57.1 | 3.61 | 4.39 | 1.28 | 50.0% | 15.4% | 7.9% | 1.41 | 1.30 |
| Kluber | CLE | COL | 72.2 | 3.10 | 2.78 | 1.27 | 54.5% | 27.0% | 5.5% | 0.50 | 1.39 |
| Lewis | TEX | WAS | 42.1 | 5.10 | 4.09 | 1.76 | 18.7% | 7.6% | 0.85 | 0.89 | |
| Strasburg | WAS | TEX | 68.1 | 3.42 | 2.71 | 1.29 | 54.5% | 27.9% | 6.2% | 0.66 | 1.64 |
| Vargas | KCR | TOR | 71 | 3.55 | 4.00 | 1.20 | 72.7% | 17.9% | 6.2% | 1.27 | 1.02 |
| Happ | TOR | KCR | 29.2 | 3.34 | 4.51 | 1.61 | 40.0% | 20.3% | 12.8% | 1.52 | 0.89 |
| Teheran | ATL | MIA | 76.1 | 1.77 | 3.75 | 0.95 | 81.8% | 20.5% | 6.4% | 0.94 | 0.88 |
| Koehler | MIA | ATL | 61 | 3.10 | 4.54 | 1.16 | 70.0% | 15.9% | 9.5% | 0.89 | 1.31 |
| Price | TBR | BOS | 77.1 | 4.42 | 2.61 | 1.18 | 36.4% | 26.3% | 2.5% | 1.40 | 1.18 |
| Workman | BOS | TBR | 11.1 | 3.18 | 3.51 | 1.17 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 0.79 | 1.45 | |
| Kennedy | SDP | CWS | 67.2 | 3.59 | 2.94 | 1.15 | 45.5% | 26.0% | 5.8% | 0.80 | 1.29 |
| Danks | CWS | SDP | 60.2 | 4.90 | 4.59 | 1.43 | 30.0% | 16.9% | 9.8% | 1.19 | 0.89 |
| Wood | CHC | MIL | 62 | 4.35 | 3.90 | 1.26 | 50.0% | 20.2% | 7.5% | 0.87 | 0.91 |
| Estrada | MIL | CHC | 61 | 3.98 | 3.46 | 1.13 | 30.0% | 23.4% | 6.6% | 2.36 | 0.80 |
| Gonzalez | BAL | HOU | 51.2 | 4.35 | 3.95 | 1.43 | 33.3% | 20.4% | 8.4% | 1.39 | 0.94 |
| Oberholtzer | HOU | BAL | 44 | 5.32 | 3.80 | 1.52 | 25.0% | 19.7% | 6.1% | 1.02 | 0.90 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | STL | 65.2 | 3.15 | 2.95 | 1.33 | 45.5% | 26.3% | 6.0% | 0.82 | 1.17 |
| Wainwright | STL | SFG | 81 | 1.67 | 2.98 | 0.85 | 81.8% | 25.2% | 5.2% | 0.33 | 1.25 |
| Leake | CIN | ARI | 71 | 2.92 | 3.47 | 1.06 | 60.0% | 16.3% | 5.0% | 0.76 | 2.35 |
| Arroyo | ARI | CIN | 60.2 | 4.15 | 3.90 | 1.31 | 50.0% | 13.3% | 5.1% | 1.04 | 2.14 |
| Richards | LAA | OAK | 66 | 3.00 | 3.53 | 1.12 | 50.0% | 23.4% | 9.1% | 0.14 | 1.60 |
| Pomeranz | OAK | LAA | 32.2 | 1.38 | 3.66 | 1.18 | 22.9% | 10.7% | 0.83 | 1.47 | |
| Verlander | DET | SEA | 71.1 | 4.04 | 4.67 | 1.52 | 45.5% | 15.8% | 9.5% | 0.38 | 0.98 |
| Iwakuma | SEA | DET | 37.2 | 2.39 | 3.15 | 0.83 | 60.0% | 17.7% | 1.5% | 0.96 | 1.78 |
| Liriano | PIT | LAD | 58.2 | 5.06 | 3.77 | 1.51 | 18.2% | 22.1% | 10.7% | 1.07 | 1.98 |
| Beckett | LAD | PIT | 55.2 | 2.43 | 3.62 | 1.03 | 44.4% | 23.3% | 9.0% | 1.13 | 1.22 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Adam Wainwright STL (v. SF) – I feel like he’s somewhat underrated on the ace landscape. Everyone recognizes that he is a great pitcher, but I’m not sure he’s appreciated for just how great he is and now he’s got an MLB-best 1.67 ERA and NL-best eight wins. The Giants offense is definitely better than in years past, but Waino is 100% matchup-proof so I have no problem spending big to use him here.
Julio Teheran ATL (at MIA) – After getting pushed around by SF a couple starts ago, some may have thought he was headed for some ERA regression, but instead he’s reeled off 15 straight scoreless innings including a shutout against the Brewers and six strong against the Rockies. The Marlins are still playing well, but he already has a 7 IP/1 ER gem against them earlier this year. They’re tougher at home, but Teheran is a beast.
Corey Kluber CLE (v. COL) – Kluber’s 3.10 ERA might be selling him a bit short as all of his ERA indicators are below 3.00, including his 2.78 SIERA. He has an excellent 27% strikeout rate (10.3 K/9 for those of you who prefer K/9) and just a 5.5% walk rate (2.1 BB/9) in his 72.7 IP of work. The Rockies have been better on the road in May, but they still aren’t close to what they are at home. Kluber can be trusted just about anywhere and against anybody, but I really like him at home where he has a 2.70 ERA and 6.1 K/BB ratio.
Stephen Strasburg WAS (v. TEX) – While the Rangers continue to hemorrhage players, they’ve actually been playing quite well of late with four-game series wins in Detroit and Minnesota, but I still have no problem running Strasburg out there against them. He’s been white-hot since that shellacking in Miami on April 15th with a 2.28 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 5.3 K/BB ratio in 47.3 IP. He’s gone at least seven in five of the seven of the outings and no fewer than six in any of them.
Madison Bumgarner SF (at STL) – After a hit-happy April (45 in 33.7 IP), MadBum has regained his form with just 25 allowed in 32 May IP en route to a 2.53 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 9.5 K/BB ratio. The Cards haven’t really hit their stride offensively, though they’ve been better against lefties in May.
Mike Leake CIN (at ARI) – Leake is quietly having a huge season. He’s amped his groundball tendencies to help curb his home run issue and he’s even added a few strikeouts (though still has a below average 16.3%), but the Reds haven’t given him much support as evidenced by his 2-4 record with a 2.79 ERA. He hasn’t won since April 15th, but don’t let that dissuade you from using the righty here. He’s yet to allow more than 4 ER in a single start, either, so his blowup potential has been low, and the career-best 0.8 HR/9 will help him continue that trend.
Ian Kennedy SD (at CWS) – Kennedy has actually done his best work on the road this season with a 2.88 ERA away from Petco compared to a 4.01 ERA in San Diego. The skills have been fantastic regardless of venue, though, with more than a strikeout per inning and a career-best 5.8% walk rate. The White Sox have dipped to a league average offense against righties in May with “Jose Abreu(player-profile)”:/players/Jose_Abreu-17437’s injury no doubt playing a major role.
Garrett Richards LAA (at OAK) – The 26-year old is having a fantastic breakout season with improvements pretty much across the board, including a huge jump in strikeouts to 23.4% (previous high was 16.3%). His obscene 0.1 HR/9 is unlikely to last as it’s fueled by a 1.9% HR/FB rate, but Oakland isn’t exactly the place where regression is most likely to strike so despite a pretty tough offense, I still like him here. They got to him for 5 ER in mid-April, but he still managed to go seven innings and mitigate the damage.
SOLID BUYS:
David Price TB (at BOS) – I love Price the rest of the way in a season-long league, but I’m a little lukewarm on him in this particular outing after getting ripped by the Sox his last time out. He’s allowed 5 ER in each of his last two outings despite a 14/2 K/BB ratio, but even with that he still has a passable 4.04 ERA in May with a 37/3 K/BB ratio in 35.7 IP. If he’s coming at a discount at your favorite outlet, I’d be more inclined to take a shot, but I think he’s still being priced in the ace class at most spots and I’m not looking to pay that right now.
Josh Beckett LAD (v. PIT) – I’ll be interested to see how used Beckett is on the heels of his no-no. His price is running high, not just because of the no-hitter but also because he has a 2.43 ERA this season. That’s going to go up, though, as his .211 BABIP and 85.4% LOB rate won’t hold. Pittsburgh isn’t a bad matchup, but I’d be a little careful with Beckett in these next couple of starts.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Francisco Liriano PIT (at LAD) – The upside is obvious. We haven’t seen much of it this year, but we saw it throughout 2013 and the Dodgers have been brutal against lefties dating back to last year with a .301 wOBA – 24th in the league. It’ll be nerve-wracking to click his name into your lineup, but at least he’s priced to buy now as opposed to earlier in the season when his price was still on the high end, especially after a relatively decent start through his first four outings.
Bronson Arroyo ARI (v. CIN) – Arroyo has turned things around brilliantly in May with a 1.73 ERA in his five starts with a 24/5 K/BB ratio in 36.3 IP. The Reds, meanwhile, are not good. I’ve never been much of an Arroyo fan, but I can’t completely pass him up in this spot especially since he rarely costs much at all.
Tom Koehler MIA (v. ATL) – He’s been a total boom-bust pick this month with three shutout efforts of 7, 7, and 8 IP and duds of 3.7 IP/4 ER and 5 IP/7 ER. The Braves have become a team to pick on as they strike out a ton and only Justin Upton, Freddie Freeman, and Evan Gattis are really doing anything.
Rafael Montero NYM (at PHI) – We saw the big upside from Montero is his last outing (6 IP/1 ER/10 K) and while I suspect we’ll still see some volatility throughout the year, the Phillies offer a great opportunity for him to stay hot. The run support will be light, but if you’re just looking for a quality start to pair with one of the aces going on Friday, he’s a solid bet.
John Danks CWS (v. SD) – By now you’re used to just about anyone facing SD landing on the list and even with an ERA near 5.00, Danks is a nice bargain bin option on Friday. He’s coming off of eight shutout innings against the Yankees, too, his third quality start in four. Unfortunately, his volatility means that a bad night usually spells the end for your lineup, but at his price it’s hard to ignore him in a juicy matchup.
Drew Pomeranz OAK (v. LAA) – Until he can log more than 5 IP, I can’t really put him in the Best Buys category. I love the 5 IP/0 ER gems he had in three straight outings before a hiccup in Toronto, but we need someone who can go deeper because you can’t always bet on the 0 ER portion of that equation. Additionally, the Angels are tough on lefties so I don’t love him here. I can understand the desire to use him given the low price (especially at DraftKings), but he’s not my top choice in any scenario.
J.A. Happ TOR (v. KC) – Happ hasn’t been too bad since joining the rotation despite a couple of shaky 4 ER outings in between his three strongest efforts during which he’s allowed just 1 ER in 18 IP including seven shutout innings against Oakland his last time out. The punchless Royals have a meager .287 wOBA against lefties with just six home runs in 525 PA (fewest in the AL).
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
Marco Estrada MIL (v. CHC) – Homers are the quickest way to trouble and Estrada is allowing them at a hilariously massive rate right now so I can’t even trust him against a weak Cubs offense (a team he’s already allowed 2 HR to in two different starts)
Ricky Nolasco MIN (at NYY) – He’d gone on a bit of a run with 3 ER in four straight starts and a 4.0 K/BB ratio in 26 IP before getting hammered to the tune of 7 ER in 4.7 IP against SF his last time out. He’s just too inconsistent to trust.
- Vidal Nuno NYY (v. MIN)
- Juan Nicasio COL (at CLE)
- Brandon Workman BOS (v. TB)
- Jason Vargas KC (at TOR)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montero | 0.472 | 7.71 | 0.255 | 2.89 | 0.234 | 0.653 | 1.410 | 4.96 | 0.111 | 106.00 | 59.4% |
| Burnett | 0.354 | 4.74 | 0.252 | 2.31 | 0.226 | 0.636 | 1.430 | 3.51 | 0.075 | 103.00 | 59.5% |
| Nolasco | 0.345 | 4.58 | 0.308 | 4.01 | 0.251 | 0.714 | 1.570 | 6.12 | 0.09 | 99.00 | 63.3% |
| Nuno | 0.417 | 8.68 | 0.316 | 3.66 | 0.234 | 0.649 | 1.510 | 5.49 | 0.078 | 65.40 | 63.8% |
| Nicasio | 0.341 | 5.38 | 0.348 | 4.21 | 0.262 | 0.763 | 1.270 | 3.61 | 0.075 | 95.20 | 62.4% |
| Kluber | 0.322 | 3.93 | 0.307 | 3.29 | 0.286 | 0.805 | 1.270 | 3.10 | 0.214 | 99.73 | 67.4% |
| Lewis | 0.385 | 5.11 | 0.360 | 5.51 | 0.232 | 0.660 | 1.750 | 5.10 | 0.111 | 93.88 | 63.2% |
| Strasburg | 0.285 | 3.25 | 0.274 | 3.07 | 0.256 | 0.697 | 1.290 | 3.42 | 0.217 | 97.91 | 66.9% |
| Vargas | 0.317 | 2.86 | 0.332 | 4.29 | 0.251 | 0.755 | 1.200 | 3.55 | 0.117 | 103.09 | 63.3% |
| Happ | 0.349 | 4.50 | 0.327 | 4.10 | 0.249 | 0.657 | 1.580 | 3.34 | 0.075 | 65.88 | 62.6% |
| Teheran | 0.322 | 3.69 | 0.267 | 2.05 | 0.257 | 0.747 | 0.940 | 1.77 | 0.141 | 97.91 | 65.6% |
| Koehler | 0.290 | 4.03 | 0.349 | 4.11 | 0.223 | 0.625 | 1.160 | 3.10 | 0.064 | 95.40 | 61.5% |
| Price | 0.262 | 3.54 | 0.312 | 3.76 | 0.241 | 0.714 | 1.180 | 4.42 | 0.238 | 107.82 | 70.2% |
| Workman | 0.310 | 4.94 | 0.331 | 4.32 | 0.247 | 0.683 | 1.150 | 3.18 | 0.128 | 43.75 | 66.3% |
| Kennedy | 0.340 | 4.94 | 0.325 | 4.30 | 0.264 | 0.737 | 1.140 | 3.59 | 0.202 | 102.91 | 66.3% |
| Danks | 0.339 | 4.42 | 0.345 | 4.99 | 0.225 | 0.659 | 1.420 | 4.90 | 0.071 | 107.40 | 61.5% |
| Wood | 0.254 | 2.80 | 0.303 | 3.62 | 0.239 | 0.704 | 1.260 | 4.35 | 0.127 | 102.20 | 65.6% |
| Estrada | 0.282 | 3.40 | 0.332 | 4.42 | 0.224 | 0.638 | 1.130 | 3.98 | 0.168 | 101.20 | 63.3% |
| Gonzalez | 0.305 | 3.47 | 0.339 | 4.35 | 0.219 | 0.667 | 1.410 | 4.35 | 0.12 | 88.40 | 62.4% |
| Oberholtzer | 0.301 | 3.52 | 0.318 | 3.90 | 0.253 | 0.719 | 1.520 | 5.32 | 0.136 | 93.88 | 65.4% |
| Bumgarner | 0.230 | 1.99 | 0.292 | 3.18 | 0.238 | 0.667 | 1.320 | 3.15 | 0.204 | 100.27 | 65.4% |
| Wainwright | 0.275 | 3.17 | 0.262 | 2.11 | 0.244 | 0.715 | 0.850 | 1.67 | 0.199 | 102.91 | 67.8% |
| Leake | 0.317 | 3.38 | 0.299 | 3.10 | 0.247 | 0.680 | 1.060 | 2.92 | 0.113 | 99.40 | 63.9% |
| Arroyo | 0.345 | 4.46 | 0.296 | 3.30 | 0.245 | 0.684 | 1.300 | 4.15 | 0.082 | 88.20 | 66.4% |
| Richards | 0.307 | 3.84 | 0.277 | 3.92 | 0.253 | 0.754 | 1.120 | 3.00 | 0.143 | 102.40 | 60.7% |
| Pomeranz | 0.217 | 1.84 | 0.369 | 3.86 | 0.263 | 0.758 | 1.160 | 1.38 | 0.122 | 44.23 | 61.4% |
| Verlander | 0.299 | 3.08 | 0.332 | 4.41 | 0.228 | 0.667 | 1.510 | 4.04 | 0.063 | 111.64 | 61.6% |
| Iwakuma | 0.267 | 2.30 | 0.280 | 3.02 | 0.275 | 0.758 | 0.820 | 2.39 | 0.162 | 92.80 | 68.3% |
| Liriano | 0.210 | 2.65 | 0.315 | 3.89 | 0.217 | 0.648 | 1.500 | 5.06 | 0.114 | 90.27 | 61.7% |
| Beckett | 0.343 | 4.60 | 0.299 | 2.82 | 0.246 | 0.685 | 1.02 | 2.43 | 0.144 | 100.56 | 61.7% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window