Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 31st, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-05-31 18:46:18

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: May 31st, 2013

NOTE: The Implosion Percentage stat is being reworked and will return next week

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Note: Implosion Percentage is being taken off the board for now. It needs a revamp to properly capture failure and including only games where a pitch yields five earned runs wasn’t doing that.

Stephen Strasburg, WAS (at ATL) – Huge slate of studs with most of them on the road. Since the big freak-out of eight runs in two games (even though all four against the Cubs were unearned), Strasburg has allowed just three runs in three outings good for a 1.17 ERA in 23 innings. That comes with a 0.82 WHIP, 24% strikeout rate, and 7% walk rate. In other words, he’s been Strasburgian. The competition wasn’t overwhelmingly fierce, but the Giants are hitting better than the Braves and the Padres aren’t too far behind them. His other opponent – the Phillies – are terrible and he made them look like it, too. The Braves still strike out most in the NL and trail only the Astros in the MLB. I think it’s to the point where Strasburg is slightly overlooked right now given the emergence of some other young aces in the NL.

Jon Lester, BOS (at NYY) – This will actually be Lester’s second-easiest matchup of May as he faced the Indians and the second (Tampa Bay), third (Texas), and fourth (Toronto) ranked teams in OPS for the month of May. His easiest matchup was against the White Sox and yet they did the most the damage. Funny how baseball works sometimes, huh? The lefty-focused lineup of the Yanks has just a 666 OPS against southpaws – 24th in MLB. It jumps to 699 at home, but that’s still only 20th. Lester had at least five strikeouts in each of his May outings except the White Sox one, but the big key to his success has been the limiting of home runs with just a 0.62 HR/9 this year.

Johnny Cueto, CIN (at PIT) – As great as the Pirates have been this year, it isn’t because of their offense. They are 23rd in OPS against right-handers at home (690) and fell to 27th in May (627). The Tigers just held them to 12 runs in four games striking them out 35% of the time (though they did take the series 3-1 including a pair of 1-0 11-inning wins). Cueto’s changeup has been brilliant this year with a 409 OPS against and the Pirates play right into his hands there with a meager 532 OPS against righty changes, 29th in MLB.

Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA (at MIN) – The only team to get to Iwakuma is the Indians who hit him for five runs in six innings thanks in large part to two home runs. Only one other team has even reached three runs off of him (the White Sox in eight innings) and he bounced back from the dud with an excellent outing against the Rangers going eight innings with two runs allowed on five hits with eight strikeouts. The Twins haven’t exactly been terrible against righties or at least not as terrible as you might assume given their 21-28 record. They have the 21st-best OPS at 697 and they strike out 22% of the time. While Iwakuma has been markedly better at home (1.34 ERA, 0.59 WHIP), it’s not as if he’s flailed on the road with a 3.23 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He has a mixed bag of prices, but at the outlets where he is pushed down a bit thanks to the thick slate, he is a great option.

Derek Holland, TEX (v. KC) – Holland hit a little wall in the middle of May yielding eight runs in 10.3 innings over two starts, but he bounced back against the Mariners in his last outing for 6.7 scoreless (well none earned, he did allow two unearned) innings with 10 strikeouts. The Royals have floundered at the plate lately leading to a change of hitting coach this week. Their 658 OPS against lefties is 21st in the league for May and they are one of seven teams hitting a homer in less than 2% of their at-bats against them. I like this matchup for Holland.

Shelby Miller, STL (v. SF) – As great as Miller’s been this year, this may not be the best matchup for you to utilize his services. First off, it’ll cost you so you need a great outing, but also the perception is still out there that the Giants can’t hit which hasn’t been true since 2011. Even last year they were league average. Worse yet for Miller is that they are second in OPS against righty curveballs with a 796 OPS and it’s been at 920 during the month of May. They are only 23rd against the fastball, Miller’s other pitch, with a 772 OPS, but they don’t strike out against the pitch.
Their 13% strikeout rate is sixth-lowest in MLB against righty fastballs and it was at 11% (second-lowest) during May. Remember that they put eight on in 5.3 innings against Miller during his season debut. He still fanned four, allowed two runs, and got the win, but it wasn’t easy and that kind of outing won’t be worth the money invested if that’s all he does tonight.

Max Scherzer, DET (at BAL) – This is a strength v. strength matchup in Baltimore. Scherzer’s slider has been excellent this year yielding a 396 OPS with a 42% strikeout rate, but the O’s have baseball’s best OPS against righty sliders at 765. Scherzer is the kind of pitcher who can handle this potent offense, the question is do you want to invest top dollar to see if he does? I’d say no. You need bang for your buck with today’s slate and he doesn’t really offer that given his tough opponent and steep cost. Neither does this next guy…

Clayton Kershaw, LAD (at COL) – …so despite the fact that he is no worse than baseball’s second-best pitcher, he just doesn’t make a ton of sense today. He’s going into Colorado with the top price tag at most outlets. Not only can he not falter, but he needs to extraordinary to pay dividends. He has a 6.53 ERA in his last three outings in Coors Field dating back to 2011 and a 5.91 ERA in 10 career starts there. It just doesn’t make sense to use the money on him today. I wouldn’t even bat an eye if he threw eight scoreless with 10 Ks, but he basically MUST do that and win to be worth the price.

BEST OF THE REST:

Cole Hamels, PHI (v. MIL) – Only his outing against the Indians kept him from a really strong month of May as he allowed three or fewer runs in each of his other five starts. Of course his inept offense has scored 0, 1, 4, 1, and 1 in his outings leaving him with a 0-5 record during the month. It feels like we haven’t seen a lot of Vintage Hamels this year, but apart from two rough starts to open his season and the Cleveland outing in May during which he allowed 18 runs in 15.7 innings, he has a 2.70 ERA in his other 53.3 innings. Some outlets have pushed his price down in response to the 4.43 ERA, but he’s better than that.

Wandy Rodriguez, PIT (v. CIN) – He’s an inning away from five straight quality starts (only went five innings against Milwaukee in his last outing). The Reds are seventh in the MLB against lefties with a 750 OPS, but it drops to 673 on the road. Wandy’s incredible at home with a 1.93 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 23% K rate, and 3% BB rate; he could be a solid little play today. My concern is that he throws well, but leaves with a no-decision as his teammates struggle to put up runs against Cueto.

CC Sabathia, NYY (v. BOS) – My biggest issue with CC this year has been the hits allowed. He’s at a career-worst 9.9 H/9. He allowed eight or more hits in each of his May starts except one, which was a rain-shortened outing in Colorado (though he only allowed one hit in four innings). The Red Sox are striking out at a 23% clip against southpaws this year, second to the Astros. Perhaps Sabathia can parlay their lack of contact into a lack of hits for once. Apart from the rain-shortened outing, he has allowed fewer than six hits just once all year. Be careful.

USE CAUTION:

Yovani Gallardo, MIL (at PHI) – This could be a sneaky value pick if you want to move away from the ace pool and pick up some cash for offense. The Phillies have the third-worst OPS against righties this season while striking out 20% of the time. After a depressed strikeout rate in April (14%), Gallardo recaptured his excellence with a 24% rate in May including a 30% rate in his last two outings. A lot of players looking for a value pick will look to Shaun Marcum because he’s facing the Marlins, but I think the real upside is here with Gallardo.

Shaun Marcum, NYM (at MIA) – As I mentioned, he will be the obvious zig to everyone’s zagging with aces because of his opponent. His skills are that of a pitcher who is much better than a 5.77 ERA thanks to a 22% strikeout rate and 5% walk rate, but it’s worth noting that his strikeout rate moved up seven percentage points with his 12-K outing against the Braves his last time out. The problem is that he basically needs to replicate that Braves outing with a win (which would be his first of the season) to pay off.

Matt Cain, SF (at STL) – I simply don’t trust Cain against this potent lineup. He’s looked better in his last two including one against the Rockies, but I don’t see the upside at his price. And that’s before I even consider the fact that he’s facing Miller on the other end so he needs to pitch well and his teammates need to solver Miller to get him a win.

Julio Teheran, ATL (v. WAS) – Teheran’s had an excellent May (1.15 ERA, 1.00 WHIP), but he’s done with just a 13% strikeout rate as he hasn’t notched more than five strikeouts in any outing during the month (and he’s only six once all year). The Nats offense has underperformed, but not enough to make this a great pick. Plus his offense has to face Strasburg which puts a win in serious doubt.

Corey Kluber, CLE (v. TB) – Since getting crushed by the Tigers back on May 10th, Kluber has baseball’s best strikeout rate at 31% in his three starts including two of those starts against Detroit and Boston. He has quality starts in all three allowing three, three, and one runs to the Phillies, Tigers, and Red Sox in 19 innings of work. He gets yet another tough opponent on Friday night as he faces May’s top scoring team in the Rays. Their 157 runs top Kluber’s own Indians by 13 for first place.

Matt Moore, TB (at CLE) – As great as Moore’s results have been, his skills portend an ERA about two runs higher than his 2.21 mark. His 23% strikeout rate is nice, but it’s barely enough to cover his horrid 11% walk rate. He’s living by escaping any and all trouble with a 91% LOB rate. You couldn’t pay me to use him against the Indians, especially since he costs just as much as the aces who have been much better this year. By the way, the Indians have an MLB-best 822 OPS against lefties this year. They are the only team north of 800 (Detroit is second at 786). Avoid.

Bartolo Colon, OAK (v. CWS) – If Colon could give a repeat performance of what he did in Houston (seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts) then he’d be a solid play at several outlets today given his price, but there is of course no way to guarantee that. Anyone can rack up strikeouts against the Astros. Apart from that outing, he has more than four just twice. At least you know he won’t implode via the walk as his 1.7% walk rate is an MLB-best.

Dylan Axelrod, CWS (at OAK) – The problem with selecting someone like Axelrod on the big tourney day is that so many of your opponents will be rolling with a stud and getting a major strikeout edge on you. It puts a severe burden on Axelrod as he has to go deep and limit his runs allowed. He’s gone more than six just once this season and he didn’t strike out anyone in that particular outing. Sure, he’s cheap and would allow you to stack an impressive offense, but at what cost? I just don’t see a path to success using him today.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

• Jason Marquis, SD
• Tommy Hanson, LAA
• Miguel Gonzalez, BAL
• Jacob Turner, MIA
• Wade Davis, KC
• Mike Pelfrey, MIN
• Jon Garland, COL
• Dallas Keuchel, HOU
• Chad Jenkins, TOR*

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PARK FACTORS: May 31st, 2013

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: May 31st, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.