Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 5th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Happ | TOR | PHI | 4.1 | 4.15 | 6.26 | 1.95 | 19.1% | 23.8% | 2.08 | 1.25 | |
| Kendrick | PHI | TOR | 30.2 | 3.52 | 3.93 | 1.42 | 40.0% | 13.9% | 5.1% | 1.47 | 2.00 |
| Gibson | MIN | CLE | 29 | 4.34 | 5.05 | 1.55 | 40.0% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 0.00 | 1.89 |
| McAllister | CLE | MIN | 33 | 3.82 | 4.07 | 1.27 | 50.0% | 20.0% | 8.6% | 0.27 | 1.05 |
| Petit | SFG | PIT | 20.2 | 2.61 | 2.51 | 1.09 | 24.4% | 4.9% | 0.44 | 2.31 | |
| Locke | PIT | SFG | |||||||||
| Greinke | LAD | WAS | 35.1 | 2.04 | 2.19 | 1.05 | 66.7% | 32.4% | 4.2% | 1.53 | 1.31 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | LAD | 33 | 3.27 | 3.11 | 1.33 | 50.0% | 24.8% | 5.7% | 0.82 | 1.33 |
| Cosart | HOU | DET | 31 | 5.52 | 4.31 | 1.29 | 33.3% | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.45 | 1.81 |
| Scherzer | DET | HOU | 39 | 2.08 | 2.44 | 1.05 | 83.3% | 33.1% | 7.1% | 0.92 | 1.32 |
| Niese | NYM | MIA | 32.2 | 2.20 | 3.79 | 1.06 | 18.8% | 6.3% | 0.83 | 1.48 | |
| Eovaldi | MIA | NYM | 38.1 | 2.58 | 2.89 | 1.02 | 66.7% | 23.0% | 3.3% | 0.23 | 1.61 |
| Miller | STL | ATL | 34.1 | 3.15 | 5.11 | 1.47 | 16.7% | 17.6% | 14.2% | 1.83 | 1.17 |
| Harang | ATL | STL | 36.1 | 2.97 | 3.71 | 1.08 | 83.3% | 25.3% | 9.6% | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| Quintana | CWS | CHC | 36 | 4.00 | 3.51 | 1.33 | 50.0% | 21.3% | 6.0% | 1.00 | 1.38 |
| Samardzija | CHC | CWS | 41 | 1.98 | 3.88 | 1.24 | 83.3% | 18.5% | 7.7% | 0.44 | 1.79 |
| Bolsinger | ARI | MIL | 18.2 | 5.79 | 2.94 | 1.70 | 33.3% | 21.4% | 5.6% | 0.96 | 2.77 |
| Garza | MIL | ARI | 36 | 5.00 | 4.03 | 1.33 | 33.3% | 19.2% | 7.7% | 1.00 | 1.12 |
| Perez | TEX | COL | 42.2 | 2.95 | 3.86 | 1.09 | 50.0% | 16.4% | 7.6% | 0.00 | 2.31 |
| Lyles | COL | TEX | 36.2 | 2.70 | 4.00 | 1.08 | 66.7% | 13.0% | 6.2% | 0.49 | 2.58 |
| Phelps | NYY | LAA | 11.2 | 3.86 | 3.27 | 1.52 | 29.6% | 13.0% | 2.31 | 0.63 | |
| Weaver | LAA | NYY | 36 | 4.00 | 4.34 | 1.22 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 1.50 | 0.68 | |
| Young | SEA | OAK | 23.2 | 3.04 | 6.31 | 1.38 | 25.0% | 12.9% | 13.9% | 1.14 | 0.40 |
| Kazmir | OAK | SEA | 38.1 | 2.11 | 3.00 | 0.94 | 66.7% | 23.2% | 4.6% | 0.23 | 1.71 |
| Ventura | KCR | SDP | 30 | 1.50 | 3.38 | 1.07 | 60.0% | 25.4% | 9.0% | 0.30 | 1.48 |
| Stults | SDP | KCR | 28.2 | 5.34 | 4.94 | 1.70 | 16.7% | 9.9% | 5.3% | 2.20 | 1.15 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Yordano Ventura, KC (at SD) – There are some obvious big picks for Monday and it starts with Ventura. First off, while his price is on the rise, you’re still not paying ace-level salaries as you are with the likes of Scherzer or Greinke for example. Then you have a heavy strikeout pitcher facing the league’s worst offense in their spacious home ballpark. Add it up and Ventura’s usage rates are likely to soar. Now you might be inclined to look elsewhere so as not to be with the pack, but with someone like Ventura against this poor of a team, he might put up a score so high that you have to be on board to be in the hunt for the bigger GPPs.
Max Scherzer, DET (v. HOU) – Am I crazy or has Scherzer’s Cy Young follow-up been somewhat quiet? I mean, you can only drop a 2.08 ERA with 51 Ks in 39 IP so quietly for a month, but he’s not exactly being raved about so far. He’s fanned at least seven in each of his first six outings and it’d be quite an upset if the Astros and their 24.9% K rate against righties stopped the streak. The price is high, but the results are there and they should continue to be on Monday evening.
Scott Kazmir, OAK (v. SEA) – Well one of the second-half surgers from Cleveland has carried over his excellence with a new team as Kazmir continues his storybook return to prominence. The slider remains dominant, but increased reliance on a strong sinker and changeup have helped him turn into Oakland’s ace. And at a time they desperately needed someone to step up with Jarrod Parker and A.J. Griffin going down almost simultaneously. The Mariners have been susceptible to offensive droughts to pitchers good and bad; Kazmir definitely lives on the former end of that spectrum.
Zack Greinke, LAD (at WAS) – Greinke used to have a problem letting issues snowball. Bad calls against him, errors by his teammates, or plain old mistakes he himself made, it’d all get to him and snowball into these 5-6 ER outings. That has not been a problem with the Dodgers. Greinke snuffs out trouble immediately and he’s just been a dominant force the last seven months of action, especially during April. The only real chink in the armor has been a 1.5 HR/9 rate, but there are so few baserunners on that they’ve inflicted minimal damage. Few pitchers are more expensive right now, but few are as reliable, either.
Nathan Eovaldi, MIA (v. NYM) – While he’s no longer than bargain bin steal he was at the beginning of the year, Eovaldi’s price still isn’t on the level of the skills and results we’ve seen to date. Eovaldi is finally using that huge fastball as a weapon. His mid-to-high 90s heater didn’t miss nearly enough bats last year, but he’s improved both the swing and swing-and-miss rates with the pitch yielding big results. Additionally, his command of both the fastball and slider has improved dramatically and led to a 63% drop in walk rate to a 3.3% BB rate. He’s also starkly improved his groundball rate to 55.5%, a career-high after living in the 41-46% range during his first three seasons. Eovaldi’s hot start has a lot of legitimacy to it and it’s set to continue with the lowly Mets coming into down with their .279 wOBA against righties – tied for the 2nd-lowest with the Cubs.
Jordan Zimmermann, WAS (v. LAD) – Zimm is doing the one thing everyone has been waiting for: missing bats. His 24.8% strikeout rate is a career-best and it hasn’t really cost him elsewhere. His hit rate is high, but that’s driven by the seven he allowed in 1.7 IP to Miami. He’s at 8.3 H/9 in his other outings, not far off of his 8.1 from last year. The Dodgers aren’t an easy matchup, but JZ is matchup-proof and this might be a nice time to jump on him as others will be more inclined to veer away given the tough matchup.
Jose Quintana, CWS (at CHC) – His 4.00 ERA/1.33 WHIP don’t jump off the page as particularly strong, but his skills portend better results. His strikeout and walk rates are career-bests thus far, but his left on base rate has dipped from 77% last year to just 68% this year – below league average. To have a 4.00 ERA after four of six outings coming in Colorado, Texas, and Detroit plus a home start against Detroit is actually an achievement. The Cubs will be his easiest opponent to date.
Jeff Samardzija, CHC (v. CWS) – Samardzija has kinda gone the other way from Zimm. His strikeout rate has dipped considerably, but his 1.98 ERA is easily a career-best and his 1.24 WHIP isn’t far from his career-best 1.22 mark from 2012. Meanwhile, the strikeout potential is still there as we’ve seen with his eight and seven strikeout efforts in April. He’s gone at least seven innings in five of seven starts so if he can bring back the strikeout rate, he’s going to be a monster. The White Sox aren’t an easy matchup with the fifth-highest wOBA, but they also have the fifth-highest strikeout rate so when they struggle, they can yield a big score for the opposing pitcher.
Jon Niese, NYM (at MIA) – A great example of why K% tells more than K/9: Niese has the same 6.6 K/9 in both 2013 and 2014, but his K% has jumped from 16.9% to 18.8% thanks to his hit and walk rates dropping significantly. Niese has been succeeding via the poor contact route. His groundball rate is the worst we’ve seen from him at 45.3%, but he’s got a whopping 17.2% infield flyball rate – eighth best in baseball. The Marlins are tough at home so don’t just assume it’ll be smooth sailing for the lefty, but he’s not a bad gamble if you’re looking to save some money.
Eric Stults, SD (v. KC) – Stults has been a stud in Petco with a 3.18 ERA in 152.7 IP there since joining the Padres back in 2012, including a 3.06 ERA and 1.05 WHIP there in 100 IP last year. He’s definitely a command-and-control guy who succeeds on inducing weak contact, but this year has been particularly weak from a strikeout perspective with just a 9.9% strikeout rate. That’s unthinkably horrible and the Royals aren’t likely to help in that area as they don’t strikeout very often. They do bring the second-worst wOBA against lefties to Petco so there is definitely some potential value in Stults as a second or third starter, but that weak strikeout ability will limit his upside.
USE CAUTION:
Matt Garza, MIL (v. ARI) – Just because they are 11-23 on the season, these D’backs aren’t exactly a cakewalk for opposing pitchers. It’s opposing hitters who have caused that poor record. Garza’s been better than his 5.00 ERA, but he’s struggled with consistency. He’s not an awful gamble because there is legitimate upside, but as he showed with his 3 IP/5 ER effort in St. Louis last time out, he can end your night in a hurry, too.
Martin Perez, TEX (at COL) – Looks like Perez’s regression decided to flood in at once with a 4.7 IP/8 ER dud against Oakland just six days after he shut ‘em out (his second straight shutout, in fact). Perez needs to go deep to score big for us in daily because he doesn’t really bring strikeouts, instead opting for a heavy groundball approach to succeed. His 56.3% GB rate is a career-high and while his 16.4% K rate is, too; it’s still quite low. He has the skillset to escape Coors Field relatively unscathed, but I just worry a bit about how much contact he allows.
Jordan Lyles, COL (v. TEX) – He’s basically been Martin Perez-lite except he often has to pitch in Coors. He’s been very impressive to date, but I trust him less than Perez because I don’t think he much in the way of swing-and-miss stuff while I think Perez’s has growth potential to miss more bats going forward.
Zach McAllister, CLE (v. MIN) – McAllister has been solid so far this season albeit not overly impressive in doing so. He misses a fair number of bats, has a slight groundball lean, and doesn’t allow homers, but he’s lasting fewer than six innings per start and because he doesn’t miss a lot of bats, it keeps his scores modest. The Twins have cooled a bit offensively after several hot, unsustainable starts, but McAllister isn’t a high upside play even a well-priced value option.
Shelby Miller, STL (at ATL) – He has all but ditched the curveball the last couple of outings after struggling to get the most out of it in his first four outings. He’s using it just 11% of the time during his last two outings and still yielding an 861 OPS. Miller isn’t right at present so don’t let the 1.59 ERA in his last three fool you as it comes with 12 Ks and 12 BBs in 17 IP.
Aaron Harang, ATL (v. STL) – Harang showed how slight his margin for error with his last effort against the Marlins. While no one really pitches to a 0.85 ERA like he had through five starts, he was definitely pitching well. It wasn’t just some .100 BABIP and 98% LOB rate, but instead he had a 27% K rate and 2.5 K/BB ratio. Of course any night of missing spots as he was in Miami is going to lead to trouble. There just isn’t any room for imprecision when you’re throwing 88-90 MPH from the right side and leaving your slider fat. Tread very carefully here.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Kyle Kendrick, PHI (v. TOR) – Brutal matchup for this hit machine (and HR machine, at least so far this season)
J.A. Happ, TOR (at PHI) – First start of the season, not sure he’d go deep enough even if we wanted to pick him.
Jarred Cosart, HOU (at DET) – He’s equally scary and enticing for the daily gamers. He’s never going to be heavily used so you can really get the jump on the competition if you catch one of his good nights, but he can also free up your night from staring at the boxscores by the third inning. His outings to date: 5 IP/0 ER, 6 IP/5 ER, 7 IP/3, 0.3 IP/7 ER, 6.7 IP/2 ER, and 6 IP/2 ER. At DraftDay, he scored 27 in that seven inning outing followed by -27 in that third of an inning massacre. That’s the volatility you’re inviting.
Mike Bolsinger, ARI (at MIL) – I need to see more to know if this 3.8 K/BB ratio (with more than strikeout per inning) has any legitimacy because if so then his 5.79 ERA is headed way down. The Brewers aren’t exactly crushing the ball, especially with a rash of injuries that has decimated their lineup so Bolsinger might be a fun longshot play for an alternate, stab-in-the-dark lineup.
Jeff Locke, PIT (v. SF) – Making his 2014 debut against a team that is raking lefties right now (.410 wOBA) plus he had a 5.04 ERA in Triple-A.
Kyle Gibson, MIN (at CLE) – I’m not going near him until he greatly improves the 1.0 K/BB ratio.
Chris Young, SEA (at OAK) – He couldn’t even be bothered to have a 1.0 K/BB ratio, instead toting a 0.93 around. That 3.04 ERA is in big trouble.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Happ | 0.351 | 4.39 | 0.318 | 4.48 | 0.301 | 0.808 | 0.182 | 7.75 | 0.188 | 55.2% | |
| Kendrick | 0.314 | 4.07 | 0.347 | 4.95 | 0.254 | 0.742 | 0.292 | 4.70 | 0.277 | 98.00 | 62.0% |
| Gibson | 0.375 | 5.48 | 0.328 | 6.11 | 0.247 | 0.704 | 0.310 | 3.55 | 0.27 | 97.80 | 58.3% |
| McAllister | 0.330 | 4.00 | 0.311 | 3.55 | 0.266 | 0.784 | 0.293 | 2.92 | 0.234 | 92.67 | 67.1% |
| Petit | 0.260 | 3.00 | 0.304 | 3.48 | 0.218 | 0.630 | 0.298 | 2.41 | 0.231 | 282.00 | 68.4% |
| Locke | 0.341 | 4.81 | 0.302 | 3.26 | 0.252 | 0.761 | |||||
| Greinke | 0.328 | 3.07 | 0.253 | 2.13 | 0.236 | 0.679 | 0.298 | 3.25 | 0.228 | 102.33 | 66.1% |
| Zimmermann | 0.312 | 3.58 | 0.271 | 2.98 | 0.264 | 0.765 | 0.355 | 3.10 | 0.275 | 88.67 | 67.3% |
| Cosart | 0.273 | 2.38 | 0.339 | 4.59 | 0.264 | 0.705 | 0.233 | 5.26 | 0.216 | 91.33 | 62.4% |
| Scherzer | 0.284 | 3.06 | 0.232 | 2.47 | 0.197 | 0.635 | 0.295 | 2.70 | 0.21 | 107.67 | 65.3% |
| Niese | 0.269 | 3.21 | 0.334 | 3.53 | 0.259 | 0.702 | 0.247 | 3.59 | 0.217 | 98.60 | 64.1% |
| Eovaldi | 0.324 | 3.82 | 0.273 | 2.69 | 0.213 | 0.607 | 0.303 | 2.19 | 0.234 | 98.67 | 68.9% |
| Miller | 0.344 | 3.73 | 0.275 | 2.64 | 0.226 | 0.648 | 0.237 | 6.19 | 0.23 | 94.83 | 59.9% |
| Harang | 0.337 | 4.96 | 0.322 | 4.83 | 0.258 | 0.705 | 0.247 | 2.97 | 0.189 | 103.83 | 63.7% |
| Quintana | 0.332 | 3.51 | 0.303 | 3.66 | 0.276 | 0.758 | 0.333 | 3.55 | 0.277 | 103.17 | 63.0% |
| Samardzija | 0.343 | 4.29 | 0.303 | 3.78 | 0.275 | 0.783 | 0.298 | 3.28 | 0.247 | 105.83 | 65.0% |
| Bolsinger | 0.436 | 6.75 | 0.259 | 5.06 | 0.258 | 0.717 | 0.381 | 3.29 | 0.31 | 110.33 | 68.3% |
| Garza | 0.329 | 4.27 | 0.300 | 3.86 | 0.246 | 0.675 | 0.291 | 3.91 | 0.25 | 92.00 | 68.1% |
| Perez | 0.307 | 2.63 | 0.310 | 3.75 | 0.321 | 0.872 | 0.281 | 2.76 | 0.231 | 99.33 | 61.4% |
| Lyles | 0.323 | 5.48 | 0.359 | 4.50 | 0.244 | 0.667 | 0.246 | 3.70 | 0.222 | 92.83 | 61.6% |
| Phelps | 0.336 | 4.08 | 0.336 | 5.90 | 0.255 | 0.752 | 0.259 | 5.79 | 0.217 | 59.9% | |
| Weaver | 0.292 | 3.51 | 0.313 | 3.29 | 0.238 | 0.671 | 0.255 | 4.83 | 0.235 | 94.33 | 60.6% |
| Young | 0.313 | 1.80 | 0.299 | 5.63 | 0.264 | 0.773 | 0.211 | 5.46 | 0.207 | 102.50 | 57.8% |
| Kazmir | 0.263 | 3.40 | 0.325 | 3.80 | 0.252 | 0.655 | 0.267 | 2.43 | 0.206 | 95.17 | 66.7% |
| Ventura | 0.259 | 2.22 | 0.282 | 2.12 | 0.217 | 0.587 | 0.256 | 2.70 | 0.191 | 99.00 | 63.8% |
| Stults | 0.257 | 3.68 | 0.350 | 4.22 | 0.237 | 0.598 | 0.324 | 6.13 | 0.328 | 80.00 | 64.8% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window