Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 9th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wacha | STL | PIT | 42.1 | 2.55 | 2.94 | 1.16 | 57.1% | 28.1% | 7.3% | 0.64 | 1.24 |
| Liriano | PIT | STL | 37.2 | 4.54 | 3.83 | 1.42 | 14.3% | 22.3% | 10.2% | 0.96 | 1.65 |
| Feldman | HOU | BAL | 26.2 | 1.69 | 5.04 | 0.95 | 75.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Chen | BAL | HOU | 34 | 4.24 | 3.76 | 1.56 | 33.3% | 18.4% | 5.3% | 0.53 | 1.33 |
| Richards | LAA | TOR | 38 | 2.84 | 3.58 | 1.13 | 50.0% | 25.8% | 11.6% | 0.24 | 1.92 |
| McGowan | TOR | LAA | 30 | 4.80 | 4.99 | 1.43 | 50.0% | 15.2% | 9.9% | 0.90 | 0.73 |
| Hughes | MIN | DET | 34.1 | 4.72 | 3.72 | 1.32 | 33.3% | 19.9% | 4.1% | 1.05 | 0.73 |
| Verlander | DET | MIN | 47 | 2.68 | 4.34 | 1.32 | 57.1% | 19.1% | 9.6% | 0.19 | 0.85 |
| Kluber | CLE | TBR | 45 | 3.60 | 3.11 | 1.36 | 42.9% | 24.5% | 6.1% | 0.60 | 1.49 |
| Odorizzi | TBR | CLE | 27.2 | 6.83 | 4.35 | 1.84 | 16.7% | 20.2% | 10.9% | 1.30 | 0.91 |
| Hernandez | PHI | NYM | 34 | 4.50 | 3.81 | 1.41 | 33.3% | 19.2% | 9.3% | 1.06 | 2.43 |
| Mejia | NYM | PHI | 32.2 | 5.23 | 3.83 | 1.55 | 33.3% | 23.3% | 11.6% | 1.38 | 2.00 |
| Chacin | COL | CIN | 5 | 7.20 | 6.25 | 2.60 | 15.4% | 19.2% | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Cueto | CIN | COL | 55 | 1.31 | 2.74 | 0.73 | 100.0% | 29.3% | 7.3% | 0.98 | 1.59 |
| Hammel | CHC | ATL | 40.2 | 2.43 | 3.57 | 0.82 | 50.0% | 21.2% | 6.0% | 1.11 | 1.14 |
| Teheran | ATL | CHC | 50 | 1.80 | 3.96 | 0.88 | 85.7% | 17.5% | 4.8% | 1.08 | 0.95 |
| Buchholz | BOS | TEX | 32 | 5.63 | 4.16 | 1.59 | 50.0% | 16.2% | 6.1% | 1.13 | 1.20 |
| Darvish | TEX | BOS | 37.2 | 2.87 | 3.24 | 1.26 | 50.0% | 26.3% | 6.9% | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| Tanaka | NYY | MIL | 42.2 | 2.53 | 2.22 | 0.97 | 66.7% | 30.4% | 3.6% | 1.48 | 1.66 |
| Gallardo | MIL | NYY | 43.2 | 2.47 | 4.14 | 1.20 | 71.4% | 14.4% | 6.1% | 0.62 | 1.67 |
| McCarthy | ARI | CWS | 44.1 | 4.67 | 3.06 | 1.29 | 28.6% | 21.3% | 5.3% | 1.42 | 2.34 |
| Rienzo | CWS | ARI | 18 | 4.50 | 5.56 | 1.56 | 33.3% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 1.50 | 0.92 |
| Fister | WAS | OAK | |||||||||
| Milone | OAK | WAS | 27.2 | 5.86 | 5.08 | 1.58 | 20.0% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 1.30 | 1.11 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | LAD | 39.2 | 3.18 | 3.30 | 1.58 | 42.9% | 25.3% | 7.7% | 0.91 | 1.19 |
| Maholm | LAD | SFG | 30.2 | 4.70 | 5.02 | 1.59 | 40.0% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 1.47 | 1.73 |
| Vargas | KCR | SEA | 46.1 | 3.50 | 4.51 | 1.26 | 71.4% | 13.5% | 5.2% | 1.17 | 0.97 |
| Maurer | SEA | KCR | 13 | 6.92 | 4.47 | 1.54 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 1.38 | 0.85 | |
| Fernandez | MIA | SDP | 46.2 | 1.74 | 2.09 | 0.91 | 85.7% | 35.7% | 6.6% | 0.39 | 1.46 |
| Ross | SDP | MIA | 43.2 | 3.30 | 3.67 | 1.39 | 42.9% | 19.9% | 8.6% | 1.03 | 2.15 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups. If a guy isn’t listed, it’s just kind of a neutral – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either. For example, Roberto Hernandez against the Mets on Friday.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Jose Fernandez, MIA (at SD) – Oh now this could be special. This is one of the most obvious picks of the season to date given the pitcher and matchup, plus it’ll cost a ton, and yet you might have to have it on your team to contend in any GPP.
Michael Wacha STL (at PIT) – Wacha is no longer just a two-pitcher as the curve and cutter have both become weapons. He uses each 11% of the time and it’s helped him be better than he was last year, at least from an ERA (2.55, up from 2.78) and strikeout percentage (28%, up from 25%) standpoint. This might be a bona fide ace sooner than later.
Justin Verlander DET (v. MIN) – Verlander hasn’t been otherworldly this year, but he’s certainly not getting enough love for his 2.68 ERA. He’s gone at least seven in five of his even starts and he’s allowed just two earned in the two starts where he didn’t. The strikeouts are down without a doubt, but he’s got 33 in his last five starts spanning 33 innings.
Julio Teheran ATL (v. CHC) – Speaking of low strikeouts, that’s the only knock against Teheran thus far. He’s been excellent otherwise and perhaps his last three starts are sign of the strikeouts coming up. He’s had outings of 8, 5, and 7 giving him 20 in 2 IP. He has a great shot to stay pile up some more facing a Cubs team that leads baseball with a 24.4% strikeout rate.
Yu Darvish TEX (v. BOS) – I believe there was something going around this preseason where Darvish was going to focus on more low-pitch ABs even if it cost him some strikeouts. It has come to fruition has he’s dropped alllll the way to 10.0 K/9. That is down from 11.9, but it’s still elite so there’s no reason for concern.
Masahiro Tanaka NYY (at MIL) – Tanaka’s absurd splitter has buoyed him to an excellent start in his MLB debut, much better than I thought he’d pitch. It’s not even the 2.53 ERA that really surprises me, but rather the insane strikeout rate (30.4%) – 33 of 51 have come on the splitter. A Braun-less Brewers lineup isn’t nearly as threatening, especially with Aramis Ramirez, Khris Davis, and Jean Segura sputtering badly.
Johnny Cueto CIN (v. COL) – Cueto is matchup-proof at this point, but there are plenty of other viable superstars with better matchups to use today if you’re going the expensive route. For example, at DraftDay you can get Cueto for $19,200, but I’d rather spend the extra $1,600 on Fernandez and figure it out with a cheaper hitter. The difference between the Padres and Rockies is worth way more than $1,600.
Tyson Ross SD (v. MIA) – If Ross is on, then this could rival the Fernandez-Wood battle from a couple weeks ago. Ross has been really inconsistent, but his best has been fantastic complete with deep outings and plenty of strikeouts. The Marlins go from the 27 Yankees at home to the 03 Tigers on the road, plus it’s Petco.
Jason Hammel, CHC (at ATL) – I’m buying Hammel’s fast start. He’s almost certainly not this good, but he is a good arm. He’s gone at least six in each outing and he’s yet to allow three earned in a single outing. His strikeout rate has returned from 2012 and he looks much healthier after an injury-plagued 2013. He hasn’t been a huge strikeout asset, but he could set a season-high (currently at 7) against the whiff-happy Braves.
Francisco Liriano PIT (v. STL) – Liriano has been just OK this year. He was excellent last year thanks to an absolute demolition of lefties (321 OPS). That has regressed to 764 this year thanks in large part to a .421 BABIP, so it should come down, but it’s not headed back to 321. The Cards has been brutal against southpaws dating back to last year, so this is a good matchup for Liriano.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Garrett Richards, LAA (at TOR) – Richards might be in the midst of a breakout season as he is finally turning his intriguing stuff into results. He’s missing plenty of bats (40 in 38 IP) and he’s had one bad start this year (7 IP, 5 ER v. OAK) which wasn’t even that bad when you look it over. Heading to Toronto is a tough matchup, but he is still cheap relative to the early results so there is still some nice value here.
Doug Fister WAS (at OAK) – He is so cheap tomorrow! I expected a discount with him just making his 2014 debut after an injury to start the season, but this is way better than I would’ve guessed. I’m OK starting really good pitchers in their first outing off of the DL, though not everyone feels that way. I’ll be interested to see how popular he is tomorrow, but I’ll definitely be having him in a lineup, even against a solid A’s team.
Corey Kluber CLE (v. TB) – When Kluber is right, he’s fantastic just as we saw in his latest outing – an eight-inning destruction of the White Sox during which he fanned 13 including seven in a row at one time. The problem has been consistency, particularly with the fastball. For the kind of upside that has delivered two games north of 39 points at DraftKings, he’s still very much priced to buy.
Brandon McCarthy ARI (v. CWS) – McCarthy has the biggest strikeout rate surge in the league at a whopping 61%, jumping from 13% to 21% so far this season. His velocity is way up and aiding the surge. After three ugly starts to open the season, he has a 2.19 ERA in his last four including a 12-K outing against the Phillies.
Jason Vargas, KC (at SEA) – Vargas returns to his old stomping grounds to battle the offense that so often left him frustrated and under-supported. Of course the Royals offense does the same, but he has a career ERA of 3.33 in Safeco over 376 IP with a 1.17 WHIP and 2.6 K/BB ratio.
Jenrry Mejia, NYM (v. PHI) – He’s a huge risk as he’s been completely boom or bust this season, but he gets a nice offense to go boom against after a massive bust in Colorado. The Phillies’ 666 OPS is 25th in the league against righties and they are prone to the strikeout. As I mentioned, McCarthy dropped 12 on ‘em.
Wei-Yin Chen, BAL (v. HOU) – After a pair of uninspired starts to open the season, Chen has found his footing with four straight strong outings yielding a 3.09 ERA in 23.3 IP. He also has a 20/8 K/BB ratio in that span helping boost career-best K and BB rates. The Astros are obviously always a team to pick on with pitchers, especially ones who come cheaply like Chen.
USE CAUTION:
A mixed bag of guys you just have to be really careful with, especially on a full slate when there are plenty of other viable options. That said, they present enough intrigue to gamble on in the right situation.
Madison Bumgarner SF (at LAD) – That huge WHIP is alarming (1.56) and this isn’t a great matchup. I’m not worried long-term, but the price is still high so there isn’t much value with him today, especially with better studs available at equal or lesser cost.
Yovani Gallardo MIL (v. NYY) – The results are great, but little to support it. The Yankees aren’t hitting that well against righties, but five of seven outings with four or fewer strikeouts has me leery of YoGa.
Dustin McGowan TOR (v. LAA) – He’s put up two solid outings fighting for his rotation spot, but this is a really tough matchup that I have hard time going against with almost any pitcher, much less a middling option like McGowan.
Scott Feldman HOU (at BAL) – He returns from the DL to face his old team. He had a 5.60 ERA in 9 starts in Camden last year.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
Jhoulys Chacin COL (at CIN)
Tommy Milone OAK (v. WAS)
Jake Odorizzi TB (v. CLE)
Phil Hughes, MIN (at DET)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wacha | 0.247 | 1.93 | 0.302 | 3.42 | 0.230 | 0.659 | 0.306 | 2.87 | 0.224 | 95.43 | 66.9% |
| Liriano | 0.188 | 2.14 | 0.309 | 3.71 | 0.202 | 0.574 | 0.299 | 3.96 | 0.243 | 87.57 | 62.3% |
| Feldman | 0.300 | 3.69 | 0.283 | 3.45 | 0.273 | 0.716 | 0.195 | 4.01 | 0.176 | 100.50 | 63.4% |
| Chen | 0.335 | 3.77 | 0.337 | 4.24 | 0.249 | 0.651 | 0.377 | 2.93 | 0.313 | 100.33 | 63.5% |
| Richards | 0.314 | 3.96 | 0.279 | 3.97 | 0.255 | 0.749 | 0.253 | 2.85 | 0.184 | 102.83 | 58.2% |
| McGowan | 0.326 | 3.95 | 0.297 | 3.58 | 0.256 | 0.746 | 0.290 | 4.68 | 0.259 | 85.00 | 61.8% |
| Hughes | 0.360 | 4.86 | 0.352 | 5.44 | 0.277 | 0.739 | 0.330 | 3.55 | 0.281 | 97.17 | 71.4% |
| Verlander | 0.293 | 2.81 | 0.322 | 4.14 | 0.256 | 0.746 | 0.298 | 2.98 | 0.239 | 111.29 | 63.2% |
| Kluber | 0.327 | 3.94 | 0.310 | 3.70 | 0.259 | 0.734 | 0.348 | 2.71 | 0.268 | 99.00 | 65.8% |
| Odorizzi | 0.379 | 5.64 | 0.329 | 5.19 | 0.243 | 0.695 | 0.376 | 4.63 | 0.313 | 91.00 | 61.0% |
| Hernandez | 0.382 | 5.89 | 0.313 | 3.94 | 0.221 | 0.628 | 0.291 | 4.26 | 0.25 | 97.33 | 62.8% |
| Mejia | 0.292 | 3.42 | 0.325 | 4.32 | 0.243 | 0.660 | 0.315 | 4.67 | 0.258 | 87.00 | 64.4% |
| Chacin | 0.328 | 4.17 | 0.292 | 3.10 | 0.258 | 0.714 | 0.471 | 4.51 | 0.381 | 86.00 | 58.1% |
| Cueto | 0.212 | 1.79 | 0.266 | 2.37 | 0.291 | 0.822 | 0.153 | 3.16 | 0.132 | 109.86 | 64.4% |
| Hammel | 0.370 | 5.59 | 0.282 | 3.11 | 0.226 | 0.645 | 0.181 | 3.80 | 0.169 | 101.00 | 62.9% |
| Teheran | 0.337 | 3.95 | 0.262 | 2.05 | 0.224 | 0.631 | 0.207 | 3.95 | 0.196 | 95.29 | 65.7% |
| Buchholz | 0.260 | 2.46 | 0.300 | 2.93 | 0.243 | 0.660 | 0.345 | 4.17 | 0.304 | 90.83 | 65.3% |
| Darvish | 0.295 | 3.08 | 0.253 | 2.53 | 0.247 | 0.711 | 0.324 | 2.95 | 0.245 | 102.00 | 61.6% |
| Tanaka | 0.224 | 2.82 | 0.346 | 2.21 | 0.248 | 0.694 | 0.272 | 3.34 | 0.217 | 105.17 | 68.5% |
| Gallardo | 0.314 | 4.01 | 0.313 | 3.77 | 0.246 | 0.695 | 0.273 | 3.64 | 0.244 | 99.14 | 60.5% |
| McCarthy | 0.325 | 4.15 | 0.344 | 5.03 | 0.267 | 0.761 | 0.305 | 4.03 | 0.264 | 93.57 | 67.3% |
| Rienzo | 0.353 | 4.81 | 0.342 | 4.68 | 0.249 | 0.674 | 0.254 | 6.00 | 0.25 | 109.33 | 58.2% |
| Fister | 0.305 | 4.05 | 0.329 | 3.20 | 0.259 | 0.757 | |||||
| Milone | 0.344 | 5.31 | 0.324 | 4.20 | 0.313 | 0.887 | 0.290 | 5.46 | 0.274 | 90.60 | 62.7% |
| Bumgarner | 0.240 | 2.09 | 0.288 | 3.12 | 0.212 | 0.618 | 0.373 | 3.16 | 0.286 | 98.29 | 64.0% |
| Maholm | 0.262 | 2.40 | 0.376 | 5.24 | 0.258 | 0.773 | 0.305 | 5.62 | 0.303 | 100.20 | 58.3% |
| Vargas | 0.337 | 2.76 | 0.332 | 4.34 | 0.249 | 0.660 | 0.282 | 4.38 | 0.265 | 106.00 | 63.9% |
| Maurer | 0.406 | 7.04 | 0.351 | 5.85 | 0.260 | 0.693 | 0.317 | 4.72 | 0.283 | 76.00 | 60.5% |
| Fernandez | 0.263 | 2.98 | 0.207 | 1.25 | 0.212 | 0.576 | 0.272 | 1.65 | 0.176 | 101.00 | 68.3% |
| Ross | 0.318 | 3.74 | 0.277 | 2.75 | 0.272 | 0.781 | 0.307 | 4.07 | 0.26 | 98.00 | 61.7% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window