Daily Pitcher Breakdown: September 10th, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Performance and Talent Statistics: September 10th, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cashner | SDP | 151.1 | 3.45 | 4.02 | 1.24 | 43.5% | 17.0% | 7.3% | 0.65 | 1.80 | |
| Cloyd | PHI | 45.1 | 3.57 | 5.10 | 1.50 | 57.1% | 14.1% | 10.6% | 0.79 | 1.05 | |
| Guthrie | KCR | 184.2 | 4.19 | 4.81 | 1.40 | 48.3% | 12.7% | 7.0% | 1.27 | 1.20 | |
| McAllister | CLE | 113.1 | 3.97 | 4.42 | 1.35 | 50.0% | 18.0% | 8.4% | 0.87 | 0.87 | |
| Nova | NYY | 113.1 | 3.02 | 3.57 | 1.28 | 43.8% | 21.0% | 7.6% | 0.48 | 1.94 | |
| Gonzalez | BAL | 147.0 | 3.98 | 4.38 | 1.28 | 41.7% | 17.1% | 7.7% | 1.22 | 1.04 | |
| Williams | LAA | 146.2 | 4.60 | 4.40 | 1.38 | 42.9% | 15.3% | 7.8% | 1.23 | 1.42 | |
| Buehrle | TOR | 185.1 | 3.88 | 4.18 | 1.29 | 51.7% | 16.1% | 6.0% | 0.97 | 1.35 | |
| Buchholz | BOS | 84.1 | 1.71 | 3.47 | 1.02 | 83.3% | 24.9% | 8.9% | 0.21 | 1.62 | |
| Price | TBR | 151.1 | 3.51 | 3.47 | 1.12 | 50.0% | 20.2% | 3.6% | 0.89 | 1.30 | |
| Jackson | CHC | 155.2 | 4.91 | 4.02 | 1.43 | 29.6% | 17.7% | 7.7% | 0.75 | 1.82 | |
| Cingrani | CIN | 103.0 | 2.80 | 3.35 | 1.08 | 41.2% | 28.9% | 10.2% | 1.14 | 0.76 | |
| Teheran | ATL | 161.1 | 3.01 | 3.65 | 1.20 | 53.8% | 21.9% | 6.2% | 1.06 | 0.98 | |
| Koehler | MIA | 118.2 | 4.70 | 4.43 | 1.42 | 26.3% | 16.2% | 9.3% | 0.99 | 1.68 | |
| Zimmermann | WAS | 185.1 | 3.30 | 3.67 | 1.11 | 60.7% | 18.4% | 4.8% | 0.87 | 1.61 | |
| Gee | NYM | 173.1 | 3.53 | 4.16 | 1.28 | 53.6% | 16.9% | 5.9% | 1.14 | 1.16 | |
| Liriano | PIT | 136.0 | 2.98 | 3.45 | 1.23 | 63.6% | 24.7% | 9.4% | 0.40 | 2.08 | |
| Perez | TEX | 95.0 | 3.41 | 4.22 | 1.28 | 53.3% | 15.7% | 6.5% | 1.04 | 1.51 | |
| Porcello | DET | 153.0 | 4.76 | 3.57 | 1.33 | 26.9% | 17.9% | 6.1% | 1.00 | 2.35 | |
| Johnson | CWS | 6.0 | 4.50 | 6.11 | 1.67 | 0.0% | 3.6% | 10.7% | 1.50 | 1.86 | |
| Parker | OAK | 176.1 | 3.57 | 4.44 | 1.19 | 53.6% | 16.8% | 7.9% | 0.97 | 1.06 | |
| Hendriks | MIN | 30.2 | 5.28 | 5.19 | 1.53 | 33.3% | 9.3% | 5.7% | 1.76 | 1.04 | |
| Peralta | MIL | 165.2 | 4.51 | 4.32 | 1.43 | 34.5% | 15.4% | 8.5% | 0.92 | 2.02 | |
| Miller | STL | 149.2 | 3.19 | 3.45 | 1.21 | 37.0% | 25.2% | 7.7% | 1.14 | 0.92 | |
| Lyles | HOU | 129.1 | 5.08 | 4.36 | 1.45 | 31.8% | 14.9% | 7.1% | 1.11 | 1.59 | |
| Saunders | SEA | 167.1 | 4.95 | 4.66 | 1.61 | 41.4% | 12.0% | 7.6% | 1.24 | 1.83 | |
| Cahill | ARI | 124.0 | 4.35 | 4.20 | 1.43 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 9.7% | 0.94 | 2.54 | |
| Volquez | LAD | 147.1 | 6.05 | 4.47 | 1.66 | 35.7% | 17.6% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 1.55 | |
| De La Rosa | COL | 165.2 | 3.31 | 4.40 | 1.36 | 51.7% | 15.8% | 8.4% | 0.54 | 1.71 | |
| Vogelsong | SFG | 81.2 | 5.62 | 4.51 | 1.59 | 20.0% | 16.4% | 8.4% | 1.43 | 1.16 | |
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
TOP FIFTEEN:
Julio Teheran, ATL (at MIA) – The Braves gave Teheran a nice long break (he last started on Aug. 30th) and it perfectly coincided with another outing against the Marlins. He had a 6.3 IP/1 ER outing with 8 Ks against them on the 30th and despite a pair of 4 ER outings in August, he was still excellent with a 2.80 ERA and 42 Ks in 35.3 IP. It’s the same old story with the Marlins offense – they’re terrible. Teheran will be a popular pick today.
Jordan Zimmermann, WAS (at NYM) – Remember that lull for Zimm? He had outings of 5, 7, and 8 ER in a six-start stretch and panic was setting in, but he’s gone 7+ IP in each of his last three allowing 2, 3, and 2 ER with 18 Ks in 22.3 IP including a 7.7 IP/3 ER against the Mets. The Mets are hitting a bit of late with a .332 wOBA against righties the last two weeks, but they are just league average over the last month (.311).
Jorge de la Rosa, COL (at SF) – DLR has quietly had an amazing year posting a 3.31 ERA and league-leading 16 wins in 165.7 IP. His 1.36 WHIP is a bit high, but it’s hard to deny his quality. He’s actually better at home with a 10-1 record and 2.76 ERA, but his 3.86 ERA on the road is plenty capable. He has a 6 IP/3 ER outing in SF earlier this year, but he has a great 2.84 ERA and 1.17 WHIP there for his career.
Jarrod Parker, OAK (at MIN) – Speaking of quiet, I think Parker’s season has been a bit off the radar. He started so poorly with a 7.36 ERA in April which has skewed the perception on him because he has a 2.82 ERA in his 22 starts since spanning 147 IP. He’s my #1 guy for you DraftDay players because they haven’t adjusted his price to match the excellence of the last four-plus months, but I still like him just fine at the other outlets that have him priced at a level commensurate with his work.
Dillon Gee, NYM (v. WAS) – Gee’s 2.14 ERA in the second half is seventh in all of baseball and he’s only allowed more than 2 ER in two of his nine outings (4 ER in each). He’s not much of a strikeout guy (35 in 63 second half IP), but he keeps the ball on the ground and doesn’t walk anybody. He had a 7.7 IP/2 ER outing against these Nats on August 30th, too.
Ivan Nova, NYY (at BAL) – Nova’s having an excellent season and helping keep the Yankees afloat in a season when they honestly should be buried based on some of their superstars falling back and injuries besetting the lineup. He’s owned the O’s with a 1.52 ERA and 0.59 WHIP in 23.7 IP. He also has a filthy 20/2 K/BB ratio against them. He was a little shaky against the Red Sox with a 4 IP/3 ER outing in a no decision, but that’s almost a quality start against the hard-hitting Red Sox these days.
Francisco Liriano, PIT (at TEX) – How amazing was that Cole-Darvish battle? I think the two lefties could do a reasonable job replicating it tonight, too. Liriano has given fantasy owners two of the worst outings in baseball during the second half allowing 7 and 10 ER in separate outings, but he has several great starts surrounding those duds making it hard to distance yourself from him entirely. In fact if you look at his second half gamelog, he’s either been brilliant or awful: 5, 0, 1, 0, 10, 1, 0, 4, 0 and 7 ER in 10 starts yielding a 4.25 ERA. When you consider that he’s allowed 17 ER in two starts, a 4.25 ERA is actually impressive. The Texas offense remains rather impotent, especially at home which is definitely a surprise.
Tony Cingrani, CIN (v. CHC) – What he lacks in innings, he makes up with gaudy strikeout totals registering 7, 5, 9, 1 and 7 in his last five. The one strikeout outing was an injury-shortened dud that led to a DL stint so we can kind of pass him for that. He’s been very good against the Cubs this year with a 3.60 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, and 19 Ks in 20 IP.
David Price, TB (v. BOS) – He’s looking a bit like pre-injury Price in his last two outings with some command issues (2 BB so the control is fine, but the spotting of pitches in the zone has been off thus 17 hits in 14 IP). We’ve seen him tame this tremendous Boston offense with back-to-back gems in Fenway to close out July (9 and 7.3 IP allowing 1 ER in each), but I’d be a bit more cautious today. He is among the most expensive arms and rightfully so, but there is real downside facing the Sox so you’re better off looking elsewhere.
Martin Perez, TEX (v. PIT) – Our fourth straight lefty, the youngster has been great lately. He was really sharp in August with a 3.06 ERA and he opened September with a 7 IP/1 ER gem in Oakland. He’s actually been much better at home with a 2.20 ERA and 3.0 K/BB ratio, though only five of his 15 starts have been in Arlington.
Shelby Miller, STL (v. MIL) – He’s having a brilliant season overall, but he’s kind of sputtering to the finish. He hasn’t even finished six in three of his last four going 1-1 with a 4.43 ERA. The Brewers have been ice cold lately with a .275 wOBA against righties the last two weeks and Miller has a 1.47 ERA and 0.98 WHIP against them in three starts.
Mark Buehrle, TOR (v. LAA) – Another lefty!! I don’t think many people realize how good he’s been this year. He was brutal into May hitting a high of 7.02 with his ERA that month, but since mid-May he has a 2.99 ERA in 22 starts spanning 144.3 IP. He’s certainly not the reason they are terrible. I mean, he didn’t exactly help them off to a great start, but he’s been great for four months now and he’s almost been better than last year in Miami when you consider the competition and home ballpark. The Angels fare pretty well against lefties so I would say there is a tier drop in between Miller and Buehrle, but he’s a passable secondary option, especially at sites where his price is still pretty low.
Ryan Vogelsong, SF (v. COL) – Vogelsong had an excellent August with a 2.93 ERA in 30.7 IP, but the 1.27 WHIP as a little high and he wasn’t much for strikeouts with just 18. He’s been much better since returning from the DL, though after posting a 7.19 ERA in nine starts before getting hurt. He had a 4.7 IP/4 ER outing to open September which derailed his run of three straight quality starts. He’s a solid secondary option, especially if you want to start off with an ace atop your lineup.
Rick Porcello, DET (at CWS) – He just can’t avoid the outright disaster start and it usually hits 3-4 times a year. He has outings of 7, 8, and 9 ER this year in just 10 total innings of work. Those three outings have pushed his ERA from 3.59 to 4.76. None of the three have come against the White Sox, though. In fact, he’s been great against them with a 2.36 ERA in four starts spanning 26.7 IP of work. All four starts have come since July, too, so the work is recent. The Sox have a .278 wOBA against righties the last couple of weeks despite their shelling of Max Scherzer yesterday.
Zach McAllister, CLE (v. KC) – He’s hit the skids a bit against Detroit and Baltimore his last two outings, but those are two very tough offenses while the Royals… well, they aren’t. They aren’t terrible like in years past, but his fortunes should be better. Even still, I wouldn’t use him as more than a secondary option today.
SPECIAL BUCHHOLZ NOTE:
Clay Buchholz, BOS (at TB) – Honestly, I’m at a bit of a loss here. He hasn’t pitched since June 8th and had about 20 times when he was “supposed” to come back so who really knows how healthy he is entering this game? He’s not even available on every site and he’s overpriced on the one’s where he is available. I couldn’t slot him in the top 15 and I don’t recommend him at all today.
ADVANCED METRICS: September 10th, 2013
| VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS | OPP vs L/R | OTHER ADVANCED STATS | |||||||||||
| PITCHER | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% | ||
| Cashner | 0.324 | 4.03 | 0.287 | 2.99 | 0.254 | 0.702 | 0.285 | 3.57 | 0.246 | 84.75 | 64.1% | ||
| Cloyd | 0.351 | 2.49 | 0.345 | 4.56 | 0.244 | 0.677 | 0.297 | 4.35 | 0.266 | 96.50 | 61.0% | ||
| Guthrie | 0.388 | 4.98 | 0.286 | 3.38 | 0.248 | 0.723 | 0.294 | 4.80 | 0.279 | 102.17 | 63.3% | ||
| McAllister | 0.340 | 4.26 | 0.321 | 3.65 | 0.257 | 0.687 | 0.294 | 3.97 | 0.253 | 98.70 | 63.8% | ||
| Nova | 0.305 | 3.18 | 0.302 | 2.93 | 0.271 | 0.777 | 0.319 | 3.24 | 0.254 | 90.11 | 62.9% | ||
| Gonzalez | 0.326 | 3.88 | 0.318 | 4.01 | 0.244 | 0.687 | 0.276 | 4.41 | 0.250 | 89.65 | 64.5% | ||
| Williams | 0.365 | 5.59 | 0.320 | 3.69 | 0.255 | 0.748 | 0.289 | 4.57 | 0.266 | 69.12 | 63.3% | ||
| Buehrle | 0.290 | 3.86 | 0.333 | 3.97 | 0.243 | 0.714 | 0.294 | 3.97 | 0.262 | 102.59 | 63.1% | ||
| Buchholz | 0.248 | 1.94 | 0.242 | 1.45 | 0.253 | 0.739 | 0.258 | 2.47 | 0.193 | 103.75 | 64.7% | ||
| Price | 0.249 | 3.44 | 0.316 | 3.59 | 0.254 | 0.726 | 0.298 | 3.22 | 0.253 | 98.27 | 68.9% | ||
| Jackson | 0.357 | 5.85 | 0.331 | 4.26 | 0.251 | 0.723 | 0.318 | 3.70 | 0.271 | 95.70 | 60.7% | ||
| Cingrani | 0.249 | 3.25 | 0.297 | 2.70 | 0.230 | 0.689 | 0.237 | 3.66 | 0.188 | 80.86 | 62.0% | ||
| Teheran | 0.367 | 4.42 | 0.262 | 1.91 | 0.232 | 0.619 | 0.291 | 3.77 | 0.243 | 96.81 | 66.3% | ||
| Koehler | 0.332 | 5.50 | 0.350 | 4.11 | 0.253 | 0.737 | 0.300 | 4.38 | 0.266 | 76.20 | 61.4% | ||
| Zimmermann | 0.314 | 3.09 | 0.285 | 3.59 | 0.237 | 0.679 | 0.272 | 3.47 | 0.237 | 96.25 | 68.6% | ||
| Gee | 0.371 | 4.40 | 0.283 | 2.92 | 0.253 | 0.711 | 0.291 | 4.11 | 0.261 | 93.36 | 65.8% | ||
| Liriano | 0.180 | 2.32 | 0.309 | 3.21 | 0.266 | 0.747 | 0.295 | 2.75 | 0.223 | 95.45 | 62.3% | ||
| Perez | 0.369 | 3.52 | 0.302 | 3.41 | 0.260 | 0.740 | 0.284 | 4.11 | 0.257 | 94.07 | 63.6% | ||
| Porcello | 0.371 | 5.86 | 0.272 | 3.72 | 0.253 | 0.691 | 0.316 | 3.81 | 0.275 | 92.70 | 63.6% | ||
| Johnson | 0.589 | 6.00 | 0.195 | 3.00 | 0.286 | 0.787 | 0.261 | 6.38 | 0.280 | 105.00 | 57.1% | ||
| Parker | 0.319 | 4.03 | 0.282 | 3.12 | 0.238 | 0.695 | 0.256 | 4.15 | 0.230 | 94.50 | 62.7% | ||
| Hendriks | 0.392 | 5.29 | 0.353 | 5.40 | 0.244 | 0.710 | 0.295 | 5.62 | 0.298 | 92.17 | 62.7% | ||
| Peralta | 0.354 | 4.56 | 0.330 | 4.55 | 0.284 | 0.766 | 0.299 | 4.26 | 0.266 | 92.83 | 61.4% | ||
| Miller | 0.342 | 3.74 | 0.275 | 2.78 | 0.251 | 0.713 | 0.289 | 3.66 | 0.233 | 95.26 | 66.1% | ||
| Lyles | 0.346 | 5.40 | 0.374 | 4.80 | 0.248 | 0.728 | 0.307 | 4.53 | 0.278 | 91.04 | 60.6% | ||
| Saunders | 0.262 | 3.00 | 0.420 | 5.68 | 0.246 | 0.697 | 0.328 | 4.85 | 0.308 | 97.69 | 59.1% | ||
| Cahill | 0.346 | 4.43 | 0.325 | 4.30 | 0.271 | 0.728 | 0.297 | 4.39 | 0.262 | 89.91 | 59.7% | ||
| Volquez | 0.371 | 6.54 | 0.360 | 5.58 | 0.257 | 0.716 | 0.337 | 4.21 | 0.287 | 91.72 | 60.8% | ||
| De La Rosa | 0.247 | 1.64 | 0.339 | 3.82 | 0.255 | 0.670 | 0.302 | 3.65 | 0.261 | 93.72 | 62.0% | ||
| Vogelsong | 0.341 | 4.73 | 0.409 | 6.69 | 0.266 | 0.749 | 0.330 | 4.95 | 0.296 | 94.07 | 62.2% | ||
- Opp Avg vs. L/R – Opponent Batting Average vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- Opp OPS vs. L/R – Opponent On Base + Slugging Percentage vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- wOBA-L and wOBA-R – Pitcher Weighted On Base Percentage Against vs. Left/Right Handed Batters
- ERA-L and ERA-R – Pitcher Earned Run Average against Left/Right Handed Batters
- BABIP – Pitcher Batting Average Against on Balls In Play
- FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
- Pit/G – Average Pitches Thrown Per Game
- Strk% – Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Starting Pitcher Salaries: September 10th, 2013
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window