Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, August 12th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gausman | BAL | SEA | 166.2 | 3.89 | 4.03 | 1.28 | 37.5% | 18.8% | 7.4% | 0.76 | 1.12 |
| Iwakuma | SEA | BAL | 242.1 | 3.75 | 3.03 | 1.06 | 60.0% | 21.3% | 3.1% | 1.19 | 1.77 |
| Nola | PHI | ARI | 24.2 | 3.65 | 3.44 | 1.05 | 21.0% | 5.0% | 1.46 | 1.57 | |
| Anderson | ARI | PHI | 226.1 | 4.06 | 4.02 | 1.31 | 40.0% | 18.8% | 7.2% | 1.11 | 1.23 |
| Iglesias | CIN | SDP | 53.1 | 4.72 | 3.60 | 1.31 | 22.8% | 6.9% | 0.84 | 1.11 | |
| Shields | SDP | CIN | 373.1 | 3.42 | 3.48 | 1.22 | 42.9% | 21.9% | 6.1% | 1.13 | 1.34 |
| Feldman | HOU | SFG | 265 | 3.97 | 4.31 | 1.31 | 47.1% | 13.8% | 6.2% | 0.92 | 1.64 |
| Heston | SFG | HOU | 140 | 3.54 | 3.72 | 1.21 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 0.45 | 2.42 | |
| Rodriguez | BOS | MIA | 73.1 | 4.17 | 4.13 | 1.24 | 19.7% | 8.4% | 1.10 | 1.23 | |
| Conley | MIA | BOS | 13.1 | 4.05 | 5.06 | 1.05 | 11.1% | 7.4% | 1.35 | 0.83 | |
| Brooks | OAK | TOR | 21.1 | 7.59 | 3.90 | 1.45 | 17.9% | 4.2% | 0.84 | 0.81 | |
| Buehrle | TOR | OAK | 350 | 3.37 | 4.36 | 1.27 | 60.0% | 13.0% | 4.7% | 0.80 | 1.38 |
| De La Rosa | COL | NYM | 288.1 | 4.37 | 4.08 | 1.30 | 40.0% | 19.1% | 9.5% | 1.06 | 1.73 |
| Degrom | NYM | COL | 280 | 2.41 | 3.07 | 1.02 | 50.0% | 25.9% | 6.1% | 0.58 | 1.30 |
| Wisler | ATL | TBR | 52 | 4.85 | 4.83 | 1.48 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 1.21 | 0.85 | |
| Odorizzi | TBR | ATL | 278.1 | 3.59 | 3.71 | 1.21 | 36.8% | 22.8% | 7.4% | 0.94 | 0.77 |
| Sabathia | NYY | CLE | 169 | 5.33 | 3.52 | 1.43 | 25.0% | 20.6% | 5.1% | 1.81 | 1.46 |
| Salazar | CLE | NYY | 235.1 | 3.79 | 3.16 | 1.22 | 12.5% | 26.8% | 7.1% | 1.11 | 1.02 |
| Garza | MIL | CHC | 287 | 4.20 | 4.22 | 1.31 | 35.0% | 17.4% | 7.7% | 0.97 | 1.29 |
| Hammel | CHC | MIL | 298.1 | 3.35 | 3.42 | 1.09 | 47.4% | 23.0% | 5.8% | 1.12 | 1.00 |
| Martinez | TEX | MIN | 257.2 | 4.26 | 5.07 | 1.43 | 27.3% | 13.0% | 8.8% | 1.08 | 0.90 |
| Pelfrey | MIN | TEX | 145.2 | 4.70 | 4.94 | 1.54 | 10.6% | 8.5% | 0.74 | 1.91 | |
| Norris | DET | KCR | 40.2 | 4.43 | 4.81 | 1.45 | 16.9% | 10.1% | 1.33 | 0.77 | |
| Volquez | KCR | DET | 331.2 | 3.07 | 4.28 | 1.24 | 50.0% | 17.4% | 8.8% | 0.73 | 1.48 |
| Heaney | LAA | CHW | 80.2 | 3.68 | 3.98 | 1.13 | 25.0% | 17.1% | 4.6% | 1.23 | 1.11 |
| Danks | CHW | LAA | 314 | 4.76 | 4.57 | 1.44 | 50.0% | 15.8% | 8.0% | 1.15 | 1.00 |
| Cole | PIT | STL | 281.1 | 3.01 | 3.13 | 1.16 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 6.3% | 0.61 | 1.70 |
| Wacha | STL | PIT | 239.1 | 3.05 | 3.69 | 1.13 | 53.3% | 20.9% | 6.6% | 0.60 | 1.31 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | LAD | 341 | 2.98 | 3.47 | 1.13 | 52.6% | 20.7% | 3.9% | 0.66 | 1.11 |
| Kershaw | LAD | WAS | 352.1 | 2.09 | 2.14 | 0.90 | 66.7% | 32.3% | 4.5% | 0.54 | 1.86 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (vs. WAS) – The hip that flared up recently will keep DFS audiences on the lookout for a late scratch, but assuming he pitches then Kershaw earns the nod as top dog tonight. He’s back to being the top dog on most nights that he pitches and has replanted himself firmly in the conversation for NL Cy Young. He’s coming off of a rough outing, having given up four runs in six innings while notching just five strikeouts against the Pirates, but his previous 10 games covered 75.7 innings of a 1.07 ERA with 102 strikeouts against 11 walks. Kershaw will try to silence the left-handed bat of Bryce Harper, who is just one-for-nine in his brief career against Kershaw, though that one hit left the yard.
Jacob deGrom NYM (vs. COL) – deGrom has essentially matched his workload from last year and the strikeout similarities are uncanny: 140.3 innings with 144 strikeouts in 2014, and 139.7 frames with 142 K’s this season. He has also been a reliable source of strikeouts recently, with seven to ten punchouts in each of his last five games. The Rockies have been the most strikeout-prone team in baseball over the last seven days with a 27.1-percent rate at the plate, setting the stage for a big K count when met with deGrom’s strikeout-per-inning consistency. deGrom is a joy to watch, and he is a near-lock to post a score of 20 or more points tonight on DraftKings.
Gerrit Cole PIT (at STL) – We pretty much know what to expect from Cole at this point: one-to-three runs allowed (accomplished in 20 of 22 starts this season), five-to-eight strikeouts (17 of 22 starts), and three or fewer walks (all 22 turns). Even when he strays outside the lines, it’s not by much. Consider that his outlier games in terms of run prevention were one with seven shutout frames and another with five tallies before the fifth inning was out, and that his game-to-game strikeout peak hasn’t spiked above 10 K’s in a contest this season (even the 10-K threshold was crossed just a single time). What was once a four-pitch repertoire has whittled down the change-up usage while trading out most of his curves for sliders, leaving Cole as a two-pitch pitcher who survives on command, movement, and velocity (in that order).
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Danny Salazar CLE (vs. NYY) – An argument could be made for just about any ordering of the three Raise candidates. Salazar edges out the competition given the strikeout upside, but be warned that he has by far the most difficult opponent of the bunch and things could go south quickly. The Yankees have a team wOBA of .327 and a 753 OPS this season, and Salazar’s greatest weakness (homers) happens to be the Bombers biggest strength – the Yankees 149 home runs rank as the third-highest total in baseball.
Jake Odorizzi TB (vs. ATL) – Odorizzi draws the Triple-A lineup of the Freeman-less Braves, and the soft opponent nearly covers the perceived talent gap between Odorizzi and the other Raise candidates. The Braves are an easy target no matter how you slice the data, with blue squares all over the matchup chart at the Daily SP Hub. The stats for Wacha and Odorizzi are remarkably similar this season when looking at ERA and strikeouts per nine innings (7.6 apiece), numbers that would suggest to go with the pitcher whose opponent offers the best chance of success.
Michael Wacha STL (vs. PIT) – Wacha is the steady option within the Raise category, but that steadiness has kept him under the level of the top pitchers on a game-to-game basis. For example, he has struck out five-to-seven hitters in 10 of his last 12 ballgames, a decent total that will keep the point total afloat but isn’t good enough to make up for any DFS holes on offense. His opponent typically falls into a similar mid-tier category, but the Pirates offense has been en fuego, with a .399 wOBA and 927 OPS in their last seven days.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gausman | 0.306 | 4.77 | 0.326 | 4.59 | 0.235 | 0.698 | 0.296 | 3.62 | 0.251 | 80.83 | 18.8% |
| Iwakuma | 0.267 | 3.93 | 0.292 | 3.89 | 0.253 | 0.739 | 0.282 | 3.56 | 0.245 | 91.13 | 21.3% |
| Nola | 0.266 | 4.30 | 0.304 | 4.61 | 0.262 | 0.725 | 0.250 | 4.36 | 0.226 | 91.75 | 21.0% |
| Anderson | 0.344 | 4.32 | 0.344 | 4.53 | 0.249 | 0.674 | 0.302 | 4.16 | 0.262 | 91.95 | 18.8% |
| Iglesias | 0.267 | 2.67 | 0.341 | 6.20 | 0.242 | 0.674 | 0.320 | 3.51 | 0.256 | 83.18 | 22.8% |
| Shields | 0.303 | 3.24 | 0.322 | 3.65 | 0.252 | 0.710 | 0.299 | 3.84 | 0.251 | 103.43 | 21.9% |
| Feldman | 0.334 | 4.90 | 0.312 | 3.61 | 0.274 | 0.755 | 0.293 | 4.19 | 0.268 | 101.14 | 13.8% |
| Heston | 0.266 | 2.68 | 0.307 | 4.43 | 0.245 | 0.739 | 0.297 | 3.37 | 0.246 | 85.72 | 18.5% |
| Rodriguez | 0.290 | 4.03 | 0.289 | 2.86 | 0.278 | 0.749 | 0.267 | 4.22 | 0.232 | 92.77 | 19.7% |
| Conley | 0.331 | 5.59 | 0.329 | 6.75 | 0.255 | 0.715 | 0.195 | 5.28 | 0.204 | 39.20 | 11.1% |
| Brooks | 0.419 | 8.38 | 0.796 | 94.50 | 0.255 | 0.760 | 0.357 | 3.57 | 0.303 | 57.83 | 17.9% |
| Buehrle | 0.319 | 3.34 | 0.307 | 3.29 | 0.242 | 0.679 | 0.298 | 3.83 | 0.272 | 95.15 | 13.0% |
| De La Rosa | 0.330 | 4.58 | 0.314 | 4.40 | 0.222 | 0.647 | 0.273 | 4.36 | 0.237 | 94.73 | 19.1% |
| Degrom | 0.234 | 2.47 | 0.275 | 3.19 | 0.280 | 0.799 | 0.274 | 2.66 | 0.211 | 101.47 | 25.9% |
| Wisler | 0.304 | 4.97 | 0.398 | 5.93 | 0.240 | 0.679 | 0.314 | 4.60 | 0.289 | 90.89 | 14.0% |
| Odorizzi | 0.316 | 3.78 | 0.356 | 5.23 | 0.260 | 0.689 | 0.282 | 3.58 | 0.232 | 97.31 | 22.8% |
| Sabathia | 0.391 | 5.39 | 0.356 | 4.66 | 0.256 | 0.708 | 0.333 | 4.73 | 0.292 | 94.17 | 20.6% |
| Salazar | 0.312 | 3.92 | 0.300 | 3.78 | 0.257 | 0.751 | 0.306 | 3.49 | 0.239 | 98.20 | 26.8% |
| Garza | 0.306 | 4.44 | 0.337 | 5.41 | 0.237 | 0.688 | 0.285 | 4.08 | 0.251 | 93.56 | 17.4% |
| Hammel | 0.289 | 3.80 | 0.299 | 3.84 | 0.259 | 0.709 | 0.270 | 3.69 | 0.227 | 92.45 | 23.0% |
| Martinez | 0.354 | 4.67 | 0.338 | 4.14 | 0.244 | 0.693 | 0.286 | 4.89 | 0.267 | 88.98 | 13.0% |
| Pelfrey | 0.356 | 4.86 | 0.389 | 6.24 | 0.262 | 0.744 | 0.315 | 4.60 | 0.292 | 90.96 | 10.6% |
| Norris | 0.327 | 3.94 | 0.318 | 2.49 | 0.270 | 0.711 | 0.287 | 5.02 | 0.259 | 62.00 | 16.9% |
| Volquez | 0.296 | 3.13 | 0.316 | 3.29 | 0.274 | 0.758 | 0.266 | 4.01 | 0.23 | 95.02 | 17.4% |
| Heaney | 0.334 | 4.61 | 0.342 | 4.76 | 0.235 | 0.624 | 0.270 | 4.24 | 0.247 | 81.33 | 17.1% |
| Danks | 0.363 | 4.99 | 0.371 | 5.59 | 0.240 | 0.686 | 0.300 | 4.55 | 0.271 | 99.81 | 15.8% |
| Cole | 0.290 | 3.65 | 0.298 | 2.94 | 0.261 | 0.724 | 0.310 | 2.96 | 0.24 | 100.32 | 24.5% |
| Wacha | 0.289 | 3.06 | 0.287 | 3.55 | 0.258 | 0.711 | 0.275 | 3.18 | 0.225 | 93.93 | 20.9% |
| Zimmermann | 0.267 | 2.76 | 0.311 | 3.58 | 0.255 | 0.760 | 0.306 | 2.95 | 0.252 | 92.27 | 20.7% |
| Kershaw | 0.240 | 2.14 | 0.260 | 2.53 | 0.250 | 0.704 | 0.284 | 2.00 | 0.199 | 101.86 | 32.3% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Andrew Heaney LAA (vs. CHW) – Heaney has been a revelation for a Halo rotation that was badly in need of an intervention. He has registered 16 or more outs and allowed two or fewer walks in each of his eight starts this season, though the inning-eating efficiency has gotten worse with just 17.0 innings in his last three turns following a four-start stretch of finishing the seventh inning. The strikeouts have also been disturbingly low, with just nine K’s over the aforementioned trio of ballgames, and his fantasy value comes into question on the heels of just 36 punchouts through his first 51.0 innings of work this season. Fortunately, he faces a Chicago team that is weak against southpaws, having managed just a .275 wOBA and 627 OPS against lefties this season.
Jordan Zimmermann WAS (at LAD) – Speaking of finding success with limited strikeouts, Zimmermann’s the poster boy for that particular ad campaign. He survives by instigating weak contact, leaving him vulnerable to misplaced pitches or batters who can get a hold of a pitch whether or not it was a mistake, an area where his opponents tonight happen to excel. The Dodgers have a .332 wOBA on the season, a .332 wOBA against right-handed pitchers, and a .357 wOBA over their last seven games; the wOBA machine says to avoid Zimm when constructing tonight’s DFS rosters.
Jason Hammel CHC (vs. MIL) – Given last season’s cratering of performance, the fact that he’s given up two or fewer runs in three of his four starts post-break is encouraging; but it’s also troubling that he’s lasted such a short time in each outing, having topped out at 5.7 innings pitched during that stretch. Hammel left his last start after just four innings and 76 pitches, and I would stay away from his services today in case there is an underlying reason to his abbreviated outings.
CC Sabathia NYY (at CLE) – Sabathia is coming off of his best start of the season (a game score of 67), with 6.0 innings of one-run baseball against the Red Sox, surrendering six baserunners and punching out eight hitters. The problem is that the two starts prior were each five-run performances that lasted less than six frames for the southpaw. Tonight he’s facing a Cleveland club that has been ripping the cover off the ball to the tune of a .389 wOBA over the last seven days, this despite the absence of Jason Kipnis and a couple of trade casualties. He has been consistently subpar this season, exemplified by an ERA that (since April) has sat between 5.25 and 5.67 for all but one week.
Edinson Volquez KC (vs. DET)
Matt Wisler ATL (at TB)
Jorge De La Rosa COL (at NYM)
Aaron Brooks OAK (at TOR)
Nick Martinez TEX (at MIN)
Daniel Norris DET (at KC)
Mike Pelfrey MIN (vs. TEX)
John Danks CHW (at LAA)
Matt Garza MIL (at CHC)
R.A. Dickey TOR (vs. OAK)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
None. Every hand plays.
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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