Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Team Preview: San Diego Padres
Baseball is almost here! With an eventful offseason in the books and spring training underway, it’s time to preview all 30 teams in Major League Baseball. With the help of RotoGrinders PlateIQ Premium, DFS ownership trends from Chris Gimino, and our resident Premium MLB guru Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood), we take a look at some information that is definitely interesting and possibly helpful for the upcoming 2019 MLB season.
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San Diego Padres Preseason Overview
— Vegas Win Total O/U: 76.5
— World Series Odds: 50/1
— Key Additions: Ian Kinsler, Manny Machado
Other Noteworthy Players for DFS: Fernando Tatis Jr., Travis Jankowski, Francisco Mejia, Greg Garcia, Franchy Cordero
— Overview: Every San Diego Padres 2019 team preview must start with a discussion of their new star infielder Manny Machado. His 2018 ranks is wOBA (13th), wRC+ (9th), HR (9th), and Hard Hits (19th) are among the many impressive numbers that help him earn his new fortune. Machado is not an instant ticket to the playoffs, but adding him to the top of the order virtually assures additional wins (6.2 WAR, rank 9th). He’s a huge boost to the organizations chances in the long term, but they have a plethora of other holes to fill in the mean time.
The Padres have plenty of talent surrounding Machado on offense, and that won’t be their problem in 2019. Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers, Ian Kinsler, and Hunter Renfroe pack some significant punch in the middle of this lineup. Manuel Margot, Luis Urias, Austin Hedges, and (later this summer) Fernando Tatis Jr. represent young talents who could ascend. From 2016 to 2018, 5 hitters in this group delivered a 103 or better wRC+. The Padres are hoping this is enough to keep them in the hunt, but sadly they are destined to fall short for reasons you will soon understand.
The Pitching situation in San Diego leaves much to be desired. The 4.08 ERA of Joey Lucchesi reminds me of the movie Animal House, when Dean Wormer calls in the entire Delta Leadership to advise them of their Grade Point Averages. Congratulations, Joey. You’re at the top of Delta Pledge Class. Advanced indicators were more generous than ERA for both he and Robbie Erlin (both under a 3.7 SIERA), but let’s be clear on what I am trying to say here: The Padres pitching situation absolutely stinks, and there isn’t much light at the end of the tunnel.
Most of this rotation can’t miss bats and that is going to be a problem in the NL West. They compounded that issue in 2018 by allowing tons of hard hits. Luis Perdomo surrendered the second worst exit velocity in baseball over 153 batted ball events. Without a real ace on hand or really any reliable pitching at all for this team, win are going to be a rare commodity.
— DFS Ownership Trends: Machado was the 13th most popular hitter on Draftkings last season, and perhaps the good news is that this could tumble a few spots in San Diego. He’ll still be a mega-star with high ownership, but if the team is stacked less often he’ll be available a minor ownership discount.
San Diego was just the 28th most popular ball park despite a poor pitching staff, but that could be on the rise as the bats will be more popular overall. It’s not like they can go any lower: The Padres ranked dead last in batter popularity a season ago.
Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes
— Manny Machado has led MLB or tied for the lead in each of the past two seasons at hard-hit outs. His 247 hard-hit outs over that span is 43 more than second-place Christian Yelich. Machado, famously maligned for not running out a grounder in Game 2 of last year’s NLCS. Maybe $300 million is enough to make him run out some ground balls.
— Only 11 pitchers in MLB (min. 40 IP) had a strikeout rate above 30 percent from August onward last season, and most of them are the obvious names: Verlander, deGrom, Snell, Scherzer, etc. etc. etc. And then you get to Joey Lucchesi, a clear outlier on the list. Lucchesi was impressive in his inaugural campaign, and while Derek Carty’s THE BAT projection system thinks he’s more of a slightly above average strikeout pitcher next year, reports indicate he’s added a cutter this offseason. He’s a pitcher worth watching, which is more than you can say for the rest of the Padres’ even-blander-than-their-uniforms rotation.