Million Dollar Musings: Tuesday, June 26th (FREE)
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Tuesday, June 26th
Happy Tuesday! We’ve got a loaded 14-game slate on tap tonight with some high end offenses in good matchups and a top-heavy pitching group as well. Choosing between paying for bats or arms will be the key to roster construction tonight. You’ll be able to tell my lean early on, but we’ll discuss both paths tonight.
If you’re reading this article for the first time, welcome! (welcome to the rest of you too!). This article is designed to give you an in-depth look at each slate, digging into stats and trends that can help you better learn to do your own research and understand some of the different angles you can use in breaking down a slate. I will walk through the pitching options, separating them into tiers, and then look at the top spots for hitters. I will wrap up each section with a ‘Cliff Notes’ section to help focus my thoughts, since I tend to get a little wordy. While I will tell you who I like and why, this is not intended to a ‘picks’ article. The goal is more to show you the thought process behind why I like the plays I like, so you can add some of these tools to your own daily process. There are usually some really bad puns included as well, but you’ll grow to love them. Let’s jump right in with the five aces at the top of the pitching pool.
TUESDAY NIGHT PITCHING
THE FIVE ACES OF TUESDAY NIGHT
Corey Kluber at Cardinals
Luis Severino at Phillies
James Paxton at Orioles
Ross Stripling vs Cubs
Charlie Morton vs Blue Jays
This is a fantastic group of pitchers, and yes, Stripling is a part of this tier. In fact, if we need to kick someone out, it would be Morton before Stripling. Let’s start with the stats on these five guys (mmm, Five Guys!) for the 2018 season so far:
Kluber – 27.2% K, 2.9% BB, 49% GB, 2.10 ERA, 2.87 SIERA
Paxton – 31.5% K, 7.4% BB, 38% GB, 3.72 ERA, 3.06 SIERA
Severino – 30.2% K, 6.4% BB, 45% GB, 2.24 ERA, 3.02 SIERA
Stripling – 29.6% K, 3.8% BB, 47% GB, 1.99 ERA, 2.73 SIERA
Morton – 29.6% K, 10.1% BB, 52% GB, 2.74 ERA, 3.43 SIERA
These are all great pitchers with a lot going for them, but certainly we can see just from this the flaw in Morton as compared to the rest of the group. These high walks have been trending up disturbingly recently with 14 walks in his last three starts. In addition, his ground balls are down to 45.7% over the past month and his strikeouts have come and gone. Of course he’s playable if you’re doing enough lineups, but I want to make some cuts, and he’s the easiest one, so adios Mr. Morton.
The next pitcher to discuss is the somewhat curious case of James Paxton. He is the only guy on this list who has an ERA higher than his SIERA this season. He hasn’t been exceedingly unlucky, but his fly balls leave him a little more susceptible than the rest of this group, and his hard hits have been creeping up to 45% over the past month. Two starts ago he was looked at by a trainer for forearm cramping, and we never heard another thing about it. But, since then, his velocity is just a slight tick down and he has been hit hard. I don’t know if there’s anything wrong here, but I am a little concerned. On the good side, Baltimore is an easier opponent than most of what he’s seen recently, and the last time he faced anyone besides the Yankees, Red Sox or Astros, he was striking out 10 Tampa batters in seven innings. Paxton has no trouble striking out right-handed batters, but he does allow fly balls and hard hits, adding some risk in this ballpark. Even though the numbers for Baltimore against lefties are not inspiring, it’s still not an ideal matchup, likely to see 8-9 righties and a few good power bats. The Orioles have also seen their strikeout rate come down a good bit against lefties this season, with four righties with K rates under 14% against lefties this season. I’m not giving him the boot by any means, but I’m looking for any reason to focus on a couple of these aces, and I can find a reason to move Paxton down the list.
Ross Stripling continues to have his salary just barely inch up, and while it seems a little funny to just consider him one of the aces, he still just hasn’t done a single thing to make us doubt him. In nine starts since May 12th, he has a 61:2 K:BB ratio. That is so good I can’t even put it into words. That is all-time great stuff right there. On top of the ridiculous K:BB numbers, Stripling has the lowest hard hit rate of anyone on this list, by a lot. He’s allowed just 25.7% hard contact.
We can wait for all the sample size in the world, but what more can we ask this guy to do? He is clearly underpriced for these skills. It’s not a great matchup, but not nearly tough enough to move him down my list. He has been other-worldly against lefties with 31.6% K and 18% hard contact, and if Kris Bryant is out again, there’s only one righty of consequence in this whole Cubs lineup. On DK/FDRFT, he’s at a 12-20% discount from the other four aces, and I can’t find any reason for it. If everyone on this list were the same salary, I would still have high exposure to Stripling. Make him walk like one guy or something before trying to find a reason to stop playing him.
Corey Kluber is just really good. There’s no debating that at this point. He has 15 quality starts in 16 outings, a 2.10 ERA and a 2.9% walk rate. I think it’s safe to say that he is not worried about how many strikeouts he has, that is not his game. And yet, he’s just so good that the strikeouts come along for the ride anyway. It’s more about the innings effectively making his strikeout rate better than it appears. He had his one “bad” start of the season 10 days ago against the Twins, but has otherwise been in top form recently with 29.9% K and 1.7% BB over the past month. He has faced some weak opponents over that time, but also had back-to-back strong starts against Houston when the numbers started perking up. The matchup with St. Louis doesn’t give him any extra strikeout upside, but it doesn’t downgrade him at all either with his 52% ground ball rate to righties. The way I see it is that he is the safest pitcher on this slate, but we’re paying a premium for safety when there are other aces with arguably more upside and are pretty darn safe themselves. If money were no object, I would use Kluber in cash games, but I don’t think he needs to be forced in if the salary is not there.
I will also note that there are some weather concerns in St. Louis that could make it easier to skip over Kluber in cash games and move right onto the next guy. I’ll be on Crunch Time with Kevin Roth tonight at 6:30 ET to get the final verdict on the weather.
That leaves us with Luis Severino, who was my preferred pitcher at first glance. Let’s dig in and see if that holds up on further inspection. The skills looks like a little bit of the best of all worlds. His strikeout rate is a tad above Kluber, his walks lower than Paxton and his hard contact lower than anyone but the GOAT Stripling. Everything is trending the right direction recently with K’s up to 32.1%, walks down to 4.6% and hard hits down to 30%. He has only allowed more than three runs once all season, and that’s with a tough schedule and half his games at Yankee Stadium. Now he gets a Phillies team with the highest strikeout rate in all of baseball against right-handed pitching, and faces a bunch of hitters that have never seen him before. He is definitely my #1 pitcher on FanDuel, and on DK/FDRFT, I think it looks correct that he’s a couple bucks more expensive than Kluber. I would put Stripling first in points per dollar, but I prefer the raw points upside for Severino over any of these aces tonight.
CLIFF NOTING THE ACES
If you are multi-entering, there is plenty of case to be made to just use all five of these guys in different combinations. It’s likely all of them have good outings, with at least a couple huge scores. But, if we try and get picky and narrow the field, I would be looking to start with Luis Severino and Ross Stripling as my main targets in all formats. On FanDuel, it’s a pretty easy fit for Severino in cash games and on DK/FDRFT, I don’t think it’s overly prohibitive to use a Severino/Stripling combo in cash. That leaves you with $3,300 per bat on DK, certainly not an exciting amount, but it’s do-able. We’ll find some cheaper arms to consider as the cash game SP2 if that’s the way you want to go. Corey Kluber looks unnecessary at his FanDuel salary, but on DK/FDRFT, I would say it’s perfectly reasonable to rotate him and Severino. And I don’t think it’s any mistake at all to use Kluber ahead of Severino in cash games there, that’s just not the way I’m leaning. I’m not telling you to stay away from Paxton and Morton by any means, but I strongly prefer the other three. I like the Paxton salary on FanDuel, but with the affordability of Severino and Stripling, he’s still just third there. I would be 25+ lineups deep before I landed on Morton tonight, which means I won’t have any.
A BIG DROP TO ALL THE REST
The top tier is a long ways ahead of the rest of the field tonight. There are going to be some bats worth spending on, but it’s a tough fade on those aces tonight with the big drop off to this next tier.
Freddy Peralta vs Royals – If someone in this mid-tier is going to end up being popular, I would expect this to be it. He has 25 strikeouts in his first 16 career innings after posting a 34% K rate in Triple-A, after the same 34% rate in Double-A last year. The strikeouts are eye popping, but so are the walks, with a walk rate above 11% at every level of the minors all the way back to Single-A. In two of his three starts, the control has been there and the strikeouts have shined. In the other, he walked six batters in four innings. This is just what it’s going to be on him this season until we see how he adjusts to the major leagues. There is no way to guess at this point if he’s going to be able to limit walks. But, there is a silver lining in this matchup. Though the Royals are not a big strikeout team, they also have one of the lowest walk rates in the league against righties, with only one batter in the lineup over 10% BB. In addition to that, there is very little power to be concerned about outside of Moustakas, so there could be some easy outs in here. I hate the idea of a pitcher with this sort of inexperience and control problems being chalky, but still, for his salary this is clearly the points per dollar upside play for tournaments.
Zack Godley at Miami – The strikeouts and ground balls have started perking up a bit recently with a 25.6% K rate over the past month, but the walks and hard hits are still an issue. It’s a strong matchup in a good park against a team with limited right-handed power and I would not be surprised to see one of his better starts here, but he’s priced in no-man’s land, especially on DK/FDRFT, where he’s no enough of a savings from Stripling to make up for the skills gap, and he’s too far ahead of Peralta and some other cheap choices to warrant an overweight approach. I’m fine with Godley, but I’d rather spend up or spend down.
David Price vs Angels – Price simply looks like a pretty good pitcher at this point. There’s nothing ace-worthy about 23% strikeouts and 8.7% walks. He doesn’t get hit too hard but allows enough fly balls to righties to cause some issues in his home ballpark. He’s quite matchup dependent, and this is not an ideal matchup. The high strikeout games have been few and far between and there’s not a lot of reason to expect one tonight. Between the power risk at the top of the lineup and a number of high contact bats (that number depends on the lineup), Price falls in the Godley group, probably will be fine but tough to use.
Lance Lynn at White Sox – Ugh. It’s the White Sox, so Lynn is likely to get some traction tonight. It’s certainly understandable with the White Sox carrying the second-highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitching. But, Lynn has such awful control that I am never going to be confident recommending a guy like this. Against left-handed batters this season, Lynn has 23 walks and just 21 strikeouts in 29 innings. Even against righties, where he has some strikeout ability at 27%, he is still walking 11.9% of batters. He also allows a lot of hard contact, 41% to lefties and 35% to righties. I expect we’ll see five lefties for the White Sox tonight, with two of them having some power and the other three not being high strikeout batters. On the plus side here, the same thing holds for Lynn as what I said with Peralta against Kansas City. The White Sox are a low walk lineup, so perhaps Lynn gets some help here. As much as I like pitchers against the White Sox, the skills of the pitcher still come first for me, and that leaves me underweight on Lynn tonight. I basically see this as a choice between Lynn and Peralta for a mid-range SP2. They both have risk from their control, I would much prefer to take a shot on the guy with obvious upside ahead of the guy with the 22.1% strikeout rate in 73 innings.
NOTE – The White Sox have just three lefties in the lineup with Daniel Palka sitting. Six righties is a nice boost for Lynn’s upside, and I would move him up a notch. He still doesn’t reach Peralta on my list, but I guess he’d be the next tournament option if the rain holds off.
Kevin Gausman vs Mariners –This is a pretty good pitcher who throws a lot of strikes, has enough talent for the occasional big strikeout game, but for the most part just can’t get out of his own way with the home runs long enough to be a DFS play on most slates. He sits at an average 21.9% strikeout rate, solid 6.3% walks with better than average ground balls and soft contact. All that would be good enough if it weren’t for the never-ending barrage of home runs. Even as his ground ball rate continues to creep up against righties, the home runs are all the way up at 2.02 HR/9 against righties this season with a career mark of 1.51. He is always going to be a risk for power in his home ballpark, and there is plenty of power in this Seattle lineup to hurt him. In addition, there are not a lot of strikeouts to go around here, with only one Mariners bat carrying an above average strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. I don’t see much reason to love Gausman tonight.
Jake Junis at Milwaukee – This is similar to Gausman as a strike throwing pitcher with huge home run risk. The strikeout and walk numbers are virtually identical to Gausman at 21.4% K and 6.2% BB, but his home runs are easier to see coming. He allows high fly balls to both right and left-handed batters and has not been able to limit hard contact. When he’s at home, this pitching style can work out, as a mixture of low walks and high fly balls leads to a lot of easy innings, but travelling to a hitter friendly park to face a team with good power is not a recipe for success.
Carlos Martinez vs Indians – Since coming off the DL four starts ago, Martinez has looked completely lost on the mound. He has walked 20 batters with 17 strikeouts in 17 innings. There is nothing OK about those numbers. Even pre-injury, the control was out of control. Like, no control. His 14% walk rate is the highest of any pitcher on this slate, and his 21.6% strikeout rate is just middle of the pack. We know there’s a lot of talent in this arm, and it should bounce back at some point, and when it does, this salary would be a steal. But against a good Indians team, there’s no reason to expect it to happen tonight. I would tell you to grab a share or two if you were max entering, just in case, but in most scenarios, I would stay far, far away until he shows signs of improvement.
Tyson Ross at Rangers – Ross is an underdog in the highest total game of the night. Whether you generally use Vegas totals or not, that should be a red flag. His strikeouts are down to 18% over the past month and he has long had issues with left-handed bats, where most of the Rangers power comes from. With Andrus and Beltre back in the fold around all the lefty power, the Rangers strikeout rate isn’t as high as it was earlier in the season. This is a pretty easy pass for me.
Jake Arrieta, Chad Kuhl, Steven Matz – I’m just going to lump these three guys together as pitchers who are cheap enough that I have no issue mixing them in the bucket of multi-entry GPP, but I have no interest in going out of my way to target. Arrieta is a pitcher with well below average strikeout who facing the Yankees in a power friendly ballpark. He gets ground balls and soft contact, but this is a lineup that has too much power to want to risk a low strikeout pitcher against. Kuhl and Matz face off in New York with two mediocre offenses, enough to put them on the map. The problem with Kuhl is his rough splits against lefties and the Mets being a much better team against righties. If Brandon Nimmo is back in the lineup, that’ll be at least five lefties to take advantage of his 43% hard hit rate. It’s the same issue on the other side for Matz. He faces a low strikeout Pirates team that can load up with right-handed bats to take advantage of his 42% hard hit rate against righties. Neither of these pitchers have a strikeout rate above average, both sitting at 21-22% on the season and 20% over the past month. There’s moderate risk and not much upside, not an ideal combo.
CHEAP LONG SHOTS, REALLY LONG
On DK/FDRFT, there’s always some merit in scraping the bottom of the barrel and seeing if we can find a near minimum salary option that can give us just enough to not lose the slate. If you can 12-15 DK points out of a sub-$5,500 pitcher, that allows you to pay up for a high end stack that is not otherwise affordable. Of course, these guys are cheap because they aren’t good, but let’s see what we can scrape up.
Chad Bettis at San Francisco – Bettis has been a victim of his home ballpark this season, but on the road he has a sparkling 2.70 ERA in 50 innings. There has been a lot of good luck in that ERA, with a low .225 BABIP on a 37% hard hit rate. His 4.45 xFIP is a more accurate description of what to expect from a guy with a 17.3% strikeout rate, 9.1% walks and no batted ball skills beyond a moderate 50% ground ball rate. He is basically completely dependent on his defense to make plays or the opposing batters to get themselves out. He’s not so bad that he’s out there beating himself, so maybe with the help of this ballpark he can extend his good fortune on the road this season. There is very little upside here with his low strikeouts and the below average strikeout lineup for San Francisco, so he’s going to have balls in play tonight. There is more downside than upside, but this is also the case with most of the guys priced $2-$3K ahead of him, so I don’t mind a share or two, but don’t go overboard with a low upside pitcher who has been lucky so far.
Austin Bibens-Dirkx vs Padres – A right-handed pitcher who costs $4,600 on DK and $9,300 on FDRFT against the Padres is worth a look, but there is not much to see here. In 87 career innings in the majors, we are looking at a pitcher with a 13% strikeout rate and no ability to control batted balls. His lone skill is throwing strikes. Yes, San Diego is a bad team against right-handed pitching, but they really aren’t so bad that we can use just anyone against them. Depending on how they set up this lineup, there may not be as many strikeouts as their reputation would suggest. Their projected lineup has a 22.8% K rate against righties, and while that’s high, it’s not nearly enough to boost Bibens-Dirkx into any kind of upside. I would side with Bettis in this cheap long shot tier if siding anywhere, but maybe Bibens-Dirkx can back his way into another 10-12 points if everything goes right.
PITCHING CLIFF NOTES
Well, as you could probably tell with all those mid-tier write-ups, I am not a fan of these options below the aces tonight. As we get into the bats, we’re going to find a lot that we want to pay up for, but in cash games, I am not going to mess around at pitcher tonight. The gap between the aces and rest is too big to risk. On FanDuel, Luis Severino and Ross Stripling are cheaper than they should be, and I will be using one of them in cash games, and will have heavy exposure to both in tournaments. I may end up skipping Corey Kluber all together on FD with his salary, but certainly play him as the third high end piece if you have the salary. I am nervous about James Paxton, but his FD salary puts him firmly in play for GPPs.
On DK/FDRFT, the savings on Stripling make him my cash game pairing with one of Severino/Kluber. I lean Severino, but wouldn’t blame you one bit to roll with Kluber there. I’ll be heavily invested in all three in tournaments. The salaries have me likely skipping Paxton and Charlie Morton completely.
As much as I love those top pitchers, using them will lock us out of some great bats, so when you start looking lower, here’s what I see. Freddy Peralta is the top tournament option in the mid-tier, but I do think he’s going to be very popular, and there is blowup risk. For me, the Royals lack of power and patience outweighs their strikeouts, and I’ll lean on the obvious talent of Peralta and hope the control shows up. Lance Lynn is the other guy in that same boat. He has a matchup in his favor, but a skill set with tremendous risk. As mentioned above, I just vastly prefer the upside of Peralta, since I’m taking on risk with either guy. If only making a few tournament lineups, I would just stick with Freddy, but I would sprinkle in a few shares of Lynn as you build out more combos.
Zack Godley and David Price are hanging around a difficult pricing range. If everyone were priced (Price-d?) the same past the aces, I guess I would have these guys ranked 2nd-3rd, just behind Peralta. I do like the matchup for Godley and the fact that his strikeouts and ground balls are up recently, so if you have the salary, I would want a tournament share or two, but it’s hard to go too strong here since you can spend just a bit more and get up to Stripling.
Everyone else in that mid-tier has obvious risk and not a tremendous amount of upside. At that point, I think I’d rather just go all the way down to Chad Bettis. I don’t like Bettis much either, but if you’re just going cheap and hoping to get fortunate on balls in play, take the guy in San Francisco at the lower salary.
I wish I could give you a stronger endorsement on some cheap pitchers tonight, but this is the slate we have. There is a tremendous gap between the five aces and the rest of the field, with the potential of Peralta being the guy who can jump up into that top tier.
TUESDAY NIGHT BATS
On a 14-game slate with a lot of questionable pitching, there is a ton of offense worth considering. I am not going to break down every single spot that has any merit at all, so if you find something in your own research that is not mentioned here or elsewhere, don’t be afraid to roll with it. I’ll talk through my favorites, with the most attackable pitchers first and then some spots for one-off home run upside. I’ll point out some potential values that can help us afford the high end pitching if you’re going that way, but also check back into the Cliff Notes section closer to lock tonight, where I will highlight any unexpected values that pop up as lineups are released.
Atlanta Lefties vs Matt Harvey – Despite a good start last week, this is still just one of the worst pitchers in the league against left-handed batters. Lefties continue to put a Dent in Harvey, the once dark knight. He has an awful 15.4% strikeout rate with 41% fly balls and 39% hard hits allowed to lefties. That has resulted in a .386 wOBA and .268 ISO against.
A Potentially Dark Night for Harvey
For a pitcher who struggles with lefties, you can’t get a much worse matchup than the top of this Braves lineup with four high contact lefties, led by the hard hits and line drives of Freddie Freeman. If you can only spend on one batter in cash games tonight, you can’t ask for much better than Freeman. Pairing him with Ozzie Albies is costly, but gives you all kinds of upside with Albies knocking out his 17th home run in extra innings last night. Nick Markakis continues to pile up multi-hit games and RBI, with elite contact skills hitting behind Albies and Freeman. Ender Inciarte is the fourth member of this nightmare stretch for Harvey as another low strikeout batter to put the ball in play against the low strikeouts of Harvey. With the salaries where they are, it’s tough to force these guys into cash games, but if you have the ability, this is where I would start. For some savings, we can look lower down in this Atlanta lineup with Johan Camargo carrying a strong .387 OBP with more walks than strikeouts. Harvey is better against righties, but certainly not so good that we can’t add Tyler Flowers to the stack on DK with his 53% fly balls and 45% hard hits against righties.
Boston Righty Power vs John Lamb – We are going to run into a lot of expensive bats with limitless upside tonight that cost a pretty penny. Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez are at the top of that list. John Lamb hasn’t pitched more than a handful of innings sprinkled back to 2015, so there’s still a lot of guesswork in his splits, but this is a guy who had trouble limiting home runs even in the minor leagues, with a 1.27 HR/9 in Triple-A this season and 1.15 in 2017. For his major league career, we’re looking at a 6.12 ERA with 1.76 HR/9. He has some moderate strikeout ability, but Betts in particular is unlikely to be swayed by that with his 11.9% strikeout rate and .373 ISO against lefties. The results haven’t been as elite yet this season for Martinez against lefties, but with his history and a 47% hard hit rate, there is plenty to love here. Because he’s striking out so much more than Betts, he is second on this list for me. If you want Boston exposure but can’t pay top dollar, Xander Bogaerts is affordable on FanDuel at $3,800 and Eduardo Nunez, while nothing special, is a solid contact bat that should get a good lineup spot at a low salary. I would also consider a full Boston stack with some lefties added in with the likelihood of several bullpen innings here, but Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Moreland didn’t get enough of a discount to stand out.
Houston Righty Power and Stack vs Ryan Borucki – It’s a tough draw for a kid to get his first major league start as a lefty against Houston. You might say this could get Bor-yucky in a hurry. At the lower levels of the minors, Borucki showed good control and ground ball ability, and he doesn’t look like a bad pitcher at all. But, once he moved up to Triple-A this season, his strikeouts dropped to 18.4% and his walks went up to 8.9%. His ground balls remained a solid 51.6%, but if you can’t strike out minor league batters, it’s going to be tough sledding against one of the best lineups in baseball.
As is the case with Freeman/Albies and Betts/Martinez, you’re not going to be able to just load these guys up at their salaries, but as a full stack, Houston is way up at the top of the list tonight. Borucki is going to see six straight low strikeout righties, all of whom have power. I will most often side with George Springer and Carlos Correa against lefties, but with the potential ground balls, I have a little more interest in Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve here. Bregman and Altuve have lower strikeouts than Springer/Correa and higher fly ball leans against lefties. That is not to downgrade Springer/Correa at all, I love all four of these guys, but in looking for any reason to separate them, if I can get higher contact and higher fly ball ability, I’ll start there. On FanDuel, we get a salary drop when we get to Yulieski Gurriel and Evan Gattis, while on DK/FDRFT, we have to wait until we get all the way down to Marwin Gonzalez and Max Stassi for some savings. After Springer, Gattis has the most home runs and highest ISO on the team against lefties this season and is an elite catcher option if you can afford him. Gurriel has the same elite contact as Bregman and Altuve, but lacks the hard hit ability, hence the salary drop. With so much unknown in a rookie pitcher and such even skills throughout the lineup, this is a much better spot for a full stack then hoping you can pick out the one right individual bat.
San Diego at Texas – Tyson Ross at Austin Bibens-Dirkx
It will be nearing 100 degrees in Arlington tonight, and we’ve got a low strikeout pitcher on one side facing a pitcher with problematic splits on the other.
It’s never thrilling to roster Padres bats against right-handed pitching, but this is not much of a right-handed pitcher. Against left-handed batters in his two seasons in the bigs, Biben-Dirkx has only managed a strikeout rate 8.3% better than my strikeout rate as a major league stater. (Mine is 0%, but that is close to as good as Bibens-Dirkx). That is such a dangerously low strikeout rate even if he had the ability to control batted balls, which he does not. Against righties, the strikeouts are a slightly more reasonable 16.4%, but he also has shown no ability whatsoever to limit hard contact. This is just not a good pitcher, and the low strikeouts knocks out a lot of the risk normally associated with San Diego. Travis Jankowski and Eric Hosmer are good contact hitters from the top of the lineup and affordable enough to consider in cash games. We’ve also got Wil Myers still priced as if he’s on the DL on FanDuel at just $2,600. With strikeouts being his only problem, I’m on board there. The rest of this lineup is so cheap that they can be filitered in as needed, but none of them stand out as top plays against righties. Jose Pirela is where I would go next, but I’m not going to build around any of these guys past the top three.
For Texas, it’s left-handed power and speed to start with against Tyson Ross. He is at a decent 20.2% strikeout rate to lefties, but he has not regained his old ground ball ability and has not been able to limit hard contact. He’s essentially an average pitcher, and in this hitting environment, that is good enough for me to attack in tournaments. As always, Joey Gallo is the high risk power option that will almost certainly strike out, but has a team-leading 50% hard hit rate and .254 ISO against righties. Shin-Soo Choo continues to be the best all-around hitter on this team against righties with a .237 ISO and .405 wOBA. Choo and Nomar Mazara give a nice mix of contact and power from the top of the lineup and I would not want to stack Texas without them. Rougned Odor is in the Gallo category of high risk power, and someone that I would only take the occasional GPP shot on. Jurickson Profar is the high contact lefty that makes more sense in the middle infield. Right-handed bats are a lesser priority against Ross, but with his propensity for allowing stolen bases, Elvis Andrus and Delino Deshields get a boost here. The mix of contact and speed from Andrus make his salary very appealing on all sites.
Cleveland Stack at Carlos Martinez – At full strength, Martinez would be a pitcher to avoid playing against, but as mentioned in the pitcher section, he has looked way out of sorts and all kinds of Jabroni since coming off the DL. If he can’t figure out his command in a hurry, this game could get ugly quick. Because there is still a lot of talent here, I can’t make much case to pay up for these Indians bats on their own. It would be Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez to pay for, but I don’t want to pay top dollar for a one-off that is most likely to end up getting walked. But for a full stack, it doesn’t get much better than an elite offense with power, contact and speed throughout going against a pitcher who may just be broken. If Martinez keeps the walks going, we could end up in the bullpen early, and any and all parts of this Cleveland lineup belong in a stack.
Twins at White Sox Lefties – Lance Lynn at Reynaldo Lopez
Reynaldo Lopez continues to live on the edge, and he’s fallen off of it a couple times already. There is still a huge gap between his 3.59 ERA and 5.18 SIERA and with his hard hits creeping up, there is still a lot of room for his .257 BABIP and 7.1% HR/FB rate to regress. He has an awful 14.6% K rate and 10.6% walks to lefties with 51% fly balls this season. He has done an OK job of limiting hard contact at 32.6%, but that’s nothing elite enough to overcome those low strikeouts and fly balls in the long run.
The Twins projected lineup tonight has all nine batters with a hard hit rate above 37% this season against righties and six of them with strikeout rates below 20%. The standouts here are Eddie Rosario (.290 ISO, .422 wOBA) and Eduardo Escobar (.328 ISO, .414 wOBA). They each have home run power, as does Logan Morrison with his 42% hard hits, 49% fly balls and improved contact. Robbie Grossman and Max Kepler have only two home runs apiece this season against righties, but the contact and hard hit ability are there to be worth a shot at their low salaries. This is a team I’ll be looking to in order to help me fit those aces.
For Lance Lynn, with all the walks, there will be baserunners, so if someone gets a bit hit, there are likely to be multiple runs along with it. His one skill this season has been ground balls to lefties up at 60%, but both Yoan Moncada and Daniel Palka are hitting the ball hard and in the air against righties, and their strikeout risk is lowered against the 14.5% K rate of Lynn. I don’t love the White Sox, but will have a few shares of those two lefties and possibly Jose Abreu in tournaments.
HOME RUN HUNTING
Seattle Power at Kevin Gausman – Gausman has allowed right-handed power throughout his career, and regardless of how well he’s pitching, those homers always seem to show up. He is throwing a tremendous amount of strikes, with just 3.7% walks to righties, and that is actually a good thing of searching for one-off power. If paying for a power bat like Nelson Cruz (.249 ISO) or Mitch Haniger (.243 ISO), you want to know they’ll get a pitch to hit. Both guys hit the ball hard and in the air with Haniger at 14 HR in 200 AB against righties and Cruz at 13 HR in 177 AB. We can also add Ryon Healy to the mix with 10 HR in 166 AB and a 40% hard hit rate. If Mike Zunino is back in the lineup, he’s the catcher version of Joey Gallo with big power but a ton of strikeout risk. Gausman doesn’t allow as much power to lefties, but enough to put Kyle Seager on the list as well with his 46% fly ball rate against righties. I would rank these guys Cruz, Haniger, Healy, Seager, Zunino.
Milwaukee Power vs Jake Junis – Like Gausman, Junis throws a ton of strikes, and even when he’s pitching well, there can be some home runs in the mix. He is allowing 49% fly balls and 38% hard hits to lefties and 40% fly balls with 40% hard hits to righties. That has saddled him with a 1.87 HR/9 despite half of his games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. There is a lot of power here, but it starts with the trio of Travis Shaw (.296 ISO), Eric Thames (.352 ISO) and Jesus Aguilar (.296 ISO). With Junis having moderate strikeout ability, I would put Shaw first on that list with the highest contact ability of that trio. Christian Yelich (.191 ISO), Lorenzo Cain (.112 ISO) and Ryan Braun (.174 ISO) are fine, but this game is far enough down the list, that I’m mostly just targeting the top couple options here. The Brewers lineup is somewhat in flux, so it’s not a lock that we’ll get Aguilar in there tonight, so keep an eye on the starting lineups page.
NOTE – Travis Shaw is out with a wrist injury tonight, but that does give us Jesus Aguilar in the lineup. Lorenzo Cain has also hit the DL. I would now go with Aguilar and Thames for Brewers power, and you can also consider Brad Miller as another GPP salary saver batting 5th for his new team.
NY Yankees Power at Jake Arrieta – This is a tricky spot. On the one hand, we have obvious power against a low strikeout pitcher, but on the other hand, we have a pitcher in Arrieta who piles up ground balls and soft contact. Given the salaries of these high end bats, I have to put the Yankees behind teams like Houston, Boston and Atlanta, but certainly there is big upside in bats like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Didi Gregorius. I would add Gleyber Torres to that list as he and Gregorius have the highest fly ball rates in this lineup. If I were going to pick out one bat here for tournaments, it would be Aaron Judge. His only flaw is the strikeouts and that is the one thing Arrieta doesn’t have. I’m not concerned about his ability to hit the ball hard, it’s just getting the bat on it.
Oakland Righty Power at Blaine Hardy – Hardy isn’t really an awful pitcher, but he’s certainly below average with 18.4% strikeouts and 40% fly balls allowed to right handed-batters. Against the power of Oakland, moderate skills are not enough to drown out the power of bats like Khris Davis (42% hard hits, 42% fly balls, .211 ISO) and Chad Pinder (64% hard hits, .169 ISO). It’s still relatively early to have enough batted ball sample size on splits, but surpisingly, the highest ISO on this team against lefties belongs to Mark Canha at .359 to go with his 40% hard hits and 48% fly balls. Marcus Semien and Jed Lowrie can go on the list as well, especially given the weak Detroit bullpen. This is not a place I’ll be going overweight tonight, but Pinder and Canha are affordable one-offs and Davis should be a far less popular high end bat than some of the previously mentioned spots.
Arizona Power at Elieser Hernandez –We’ve got just 31 innings of sample size on Hernandez, but it has not been pretty. He was a fly ball pitcher in the minors, and so far he’s at 49% fly balls and 38% hard hits with just a 10.2% strikeout rate. Low strikeouts and high fly balls is a recipe to look for power. Though the ballpark is a bummer, Paul Goldschmidt (.207 ISO), Jake Lamb (.191 ISO), David Peralta (.264 ISO) and Daniel Descalso (.229 ISO) all line up, with all four carrying hard hit rates above 42% against righties this season. Lamb, Peralta and Descalso are all affordable on FanDuel, and Lamb and Descalso fit as one-offs on DK/FDRFT. Goldschmidt will probably miss my cut based on the salary, but I do like him. If Alex Avila gets the start, he is a nice cheap catcher punt on DK.
Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story at Derek Holland – If this game were in Coors Field, Arenado and Story would be mega-chalk. If the game were in a neutral ballpark, they would probably be moderately popular. Being in the last game of the night in a pitchers park, I would expect virtually no ownership on these guys, but they would be a mistake to overlook. Almost nobody allows hard hits and fly balls to righties like Derek Holland. He’s at 43% FB and 43% HH with a .239 ISO this season. He has improved his strikeouts to righties which adds plenty of risk to Story, but it’s not an issue for Arenado with his 12.8% K rate to go along with .462 ISO and .574 wOBA against lefties. Story is almost as impressive with power and his .333 ISO and 52% fly balls. It will be tough to fit Story with guys like Lindor and Correa hanging around his price range, but Arenado is a standout even in this ballpark.
Dodgers Righty Power vs Jon Lester – I’m happy for Jon Lester and his friends and family that he has a 2.10 ERA. Clearly he’s doing some things right, and even though he’s had a tremendous amount of good luck, he’s probably better than his 4.55 SIERA, but not this much better. Over the past month, the good luck has gotten out of control with a .185 BABIP on 43% hard hits. For the season he has an 18.4% K rate to righties with 38% fly balls and 38% hard hits. Those are below average skills. I do not plan to load up against him, but I do have a lot of love for Justin Turner at his salary with his elite plate skills picking up where they left off last season. Enrique Hernandez just keeps hitting, and carries a .256 ISO against lefties at a low salary. And then there’s Matt Kemp with a team-leading 50% hard hit rate, .316 ISO and .428 wOBA against lefties. Lester’s luck can’t last forever, and even if it regresses slowly, these righties should be able to get something done tonight.
Mets Lefty Power vs Chad Kuhl – The last spot I’ll mention is the top of the Mets order against Chad Kuhl. Kuhl is once again struggling with hard hits to lefties, up at 43% this season leading to a .259 ISO against. If Brandon Nimmo gets back in the lineup, he joins Asdrubal Cabrera and Michael Conforto as very affordable FanDuel plays. They are a little overpriced on DK/FDRFT, but I would consider all three in cash games or as a mini stack on FD.
HITTING CLIFF NOTES
Well, I said I wouldn’t talk about every game, and I didn’t quite talk about them all, you’re welcome! It really is a wide open slate for bats. All of these spots have plenty to like, but let me sort it out as best as I can. Check back this afternoon for some further thoughts on lineup construction.
Several of the high end offenses are more stack or fade, some are better for one-offs, some contain values. If you’re looking for full stacks in tournaments, I have the Astros, Braves and Indians at the top of my list. The Astros and Indians in particular are very much in that stack or fade category. We’ve got an unknown pitcher against Houston and a guy that has ace upside against Cleveland, so there’s risk as well as difficulty in picking out the right one off there. For Atlanta, that would be a spot I would also add the top of the order lefties to cash games if you can afford them.
Some high-end GPP mini stacks include the Red Sox Betts/Martinez, the Twins lefties, and the Rangers lefties. In that San Diego-Texas game, you can also head to the Padres side for some values, which we also have with the Twins.
The rest of the list is more about individual power bats, with Seattle and Milwaukee topping the list, specifically Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger and Travis Shaw. You can spend your big salary in the outfield on guys like Aaron Judge or Khris Davis, or in the infield with the likes of Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt or Yoan Moncada.
If you’re paying up for the pitching, you will need to take some chances on cheaper bats like Chad Pinder and Mark Canha, the Mets or Arizona lefties on FanDuel, Enrique Hernandez and Justin Turner out west or going lower in the order on some of the high end teams with plays like Logan Morrison and Max Kepler, Johan Camargo, Marwin Gonzalez or the Padres.
AFTERNOON LINEUP THOUGHTS
I mentioned at the top that my preference is to pay up for two pitchers on DK/FDRFT in cash games. That is still the way I am going, and that means I’ll be hunting for value bats. But, I think the common build is going to include Freddy Peralta as the SP2, and I’m completely fine with that, it allows you to do a lot of other things with your hitters. I do want to caution that Peralta is going to be very popular tonight in tournaments. He is the clear upside mid-tier arm, but he is still far from safe. He’s still the only guy in that range that I want to be in on, but I’m not going all-in on a wild rookie with no track record.
On FanDuel, I am personally not even considering anyone other than Severino or Stripling in cash games. We’ve gotten several of the values I was hoping for to make the pitching work, with Chad Pinder batting 2nd, Logan Morrison batting cleanup with Max Kepler 6th, some Pirates min priced righties like David Freese and Jose Osuna (though they are pinch hit risks), Michael Conforto on FD and every single Padres batter under $3k on FD, and only Wil Myers above $3,800 on DK. We’re still waiting on the Dodgers, but I assume we’ll get Enrique Hernandez up near the top.
If you’re stacking one of the high end offenses, you’re basically stuck going with the crowd on Stripling/Peralta or one of the other mid-tier risks like Lance Lynn. I’ll also note a matchup boost for Lynn with only three lefties in the White Sox lineup. That is enough where I’ll end up with a share or two more than I started with. You could also hope that none of the aces have big games, and start with Godley or Price as your SP1, but I feel much better about spending up at pitcher and grabbing some cheap bats. Once I start chasing cheaper pitching, I’m just as happy going all the way down to Chad Bettis and hoping for 15 DK points. For this reason, my lineup builds have left me without the expensive stacks tonight. If I had more lineups, I would take a couple stabs at non-ace lineups with Atlanta, Houston, Boston, Cleveland, etc, but in a limited lineup scenario, I always want to start by making sure I’m focusing on whatever it is I feel most certain of on a slate. Tonight, that is the pitching for me.