Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Dodgers vs. Padres Odds
| Dodgers Odds | -194 |
| Padres Odds | +165 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Date | Wed, Mar. 20 |
| Time | 6:05 a.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
On Wednesday, Major League Baseball fans will be treated to the first 2024 regular season game when the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres meet at the Gocheok Sky Dome in Korea – that is, if they are willing to wake up for the 6:05 a.m. ET first pitch. Newly-acquired Tyler Glasnow will be on the bump for the Dodgers to begin the new campaign, with Yu Darvish toeing the rubber for the Padres.
Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Dodgers as heavy -194 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 8.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Los Angeles Dodgers
What to expect from Tyler Glasnow
Among 127 pitchers to throw at least 100 innings last season, there were only 11 who threw at least 65% first-pitch strikes and induced higher than a 45% ground ball rate. Tyler Glasnow was one of only two pitchers on that list who struck out more than 27% of the batters he faced in 2023, putting him in rarefied air when talking about the best starting pitchers in Major League Baseball.
Glasnow ended last year ranked 15th in xERA, 3rd in FIP, 11th in WHIP, 2nd in K%, 5th in first-pitch strike%, and 11th in ground ball rate out of 127 pitchers to throw 100 innings.
Health is an obvious concern for a player who missed all of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery and then missed a big chunk of 2023 with an oblique ailment. However, there’s little doubt that he’s one of the most talented, if not the most talented pitchers in the game today. He will be elite when healthy for the Dodgers this season. Similar to Yamamoto, his only red flag is a highly unreliable infield defense playing behind him. That defense becomes particularly worrisome against high-contact lineups such as the Padres.
Shohei Ohtani to make Dodgers debut
After signing a record-breaking $700 million contract with the Dodgers this past winter, Shohei Ohtani will make his long-awaited Dodgers debut on Wednesday in Korea, batting second behind Mookie Betts.
In 2023, the Dodgers scored the 2nd-most runs of any team in the big leagues en route to winning 100 games, and now have last year’s American League leader in OPS joining the top of their lineup. Last year, there were only 11 hitters in the MLB to post a top-50 xwOBA against all pitch types – fastballs, offspeed, breaking. The Dodgers now have 3 players from that list in the top-3 of their batting order in addition to the talented Will Smith, Max Muncy, James Outman, and others.
It’s hard to envision a scenario in which this lineup is anything other than a juggernaut in 2024.
Los Angeles bullpen hoping to replicate 2023 success
The Dodgers’ bullpen was a mild concern during the first half of last season, ranking 11th in FIP, 20th in WHIP, and 13th in K%. However, no team in baseball had a better arm barn after the All-Star Break. From July 12 to the end of the regular season, the Los Angeles bullpen ranked 1st in FIP, 1st in WHIP, and 7th in K%. They will look to pick up right where they left off when they take the field on Wednesday.
San Diego Padres
Yu Darvish gets Opening Day nod
In 2023, Yu Darvish had his worst full-season of his career, at least on the surface. His 4.56 ERA ranked 90th out of 127 pitchers to throw at least 100 innings, and his 1.30 WHIP ranked 76th. Yet his 3.74 xERA ranked 23rd and his FIP ranked 58th, indicating that he was probably more unlucky than bad last year.
Only 18 pitchers allowed a higher BABIP than Darvish despite the fact that he ranked in the 64th percentile in average exit velocity allowed and 57th percentile in Hard-Hit%. Though not elite numbers by any means, he was rarely demolished when he took the mound, which makes it all the more unlucky that his surface-level numbers were so poor. In fact, only 9 starting pitchers had a larger discrepancy between their ERA and xERA than Darvish did in 2023.
Last year, Darvish still struck out 24.6% of the batters he faced and walked fewer batters than the league-average starter, making him one of only 36 pitchers to have a K% and BB% better than the league-average. From that list, 31 pitchers had a 4.13 FIP or better and 16 had a 3.55 FIP or better.
Even in his worst season in recent memory, Darvish ranked 16th in Stuff+ and 45th in Location+. If he’s truly healthier in 2024, there is no reason why he shouldn’t be able to produce another strong campaign for the Padres.
Fernando Tatis leads star-studded San Diego offense
The Padres’ lineup is certainly top-heavy heading into 2024, but teams could do a lot worse than having Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis, and Manny Machado lead their lineup. Even the less impressive names projected to be in Wednesday’s lineup are mostly high-contact bats, each of whom should at least make the new-look Los Angeles infield defense make some plays to begin the season.
Following the All-Star Break last season, only 3 teams struck out less frequently against right-handed pitching than the Padres, and only 2 teams walked at a higher rate in such situations. During that stretch, San Diego ranked 3rd in overall contact percentage, 2nd in contact percentage on pitches out of the strike zone, and 6th in contact percentage on pitches in the strike zone.
If the Padres use the same lineup on Wednesday that they deployed Sunday in an exhibition game, they will have 6 players who struck out less frequently than the league average hitter against right-handed pitching in 2023, in addition to the high-contact Jackson Merrill, who struck out in only 13% of his plate appearances in Double-A last year. This offense isn’t as bad as some people think.
All hands on deck in relief for the Padres to open the season
San Diego doesn’t project to have an elite bullpen this summer, but they will benefit from having an expanded relief unit in this two-game mini-series to begin the year. Reportedly, Michael King and other starters will be available out of the arm barn behind Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove the next two days, which should help manager Mike Shildt avoid having to dig into his less-talented middle-relief options against the potent Dodgers lineup.
Dodgers vs. Padres – Picks & Predictions
Tyler Glasnow is one of the most talented starting pitchers in Major League Baseball, but he’s not immune to a clunker on the mound from time to time. In his 21 starts last season, he allowed 3+ earned runs 9 times. The San Diego Padres traded away Juan Soto this past winter, but this is still a low market number for a team that scored 3+ runs in 112 of their 162 (69.1%) regular season games in 2023. There is also a possibility that the Los Angeles Dodgers have an adjustment period defensively to begin 2024, with Max Muncy anchored at 3rd base, Mookie Betts at shortstop, and Teoscar Hernandez in left field. One untimely error could get the job done for us in this spot.
PICK: Padres Team Total Over 3 (-133, Caesars)