Dominican Republic vs. Venezuela: World Baseball Classic Odds, Picks and Predictions
Dominican Republic vs. Venezuela Odds
| Dominican Republic ML | -320 |
| Venezuela ML | +240 |
| Over/Under | 9 |
| Date | Sat, Mar. 11 |
| Time | 7:00 p.m. |
| TV | FS1 |
On Saturday evening, the Dominican Republic and Venezuela will each play their first pool play game of the 2023 World Baseball Classic. The two teams will meet at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida at 7:00 p.m. on FS1.
The Dominican Republic has never finished worse than ninth in this tournament. In 2013, they won the championship, but finished fifth in 2017. Looking for a better outcome in 2023, the team will hand the ball to Sandy Alcantara in their opener. Venezuela is coming off of an eight place finish in 2017, and will turn to Martin Perez in this spot.
Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have the Dominican Republic priced as -320 favorites on the moneyline in this matchup, with the over/under on the total set at nine runs.
Dominican Republic
Alcantara on the bump
Sandy Alcantara won the National League Cy Young award in 2022 after finishing with a 2.28 ERA, 2.92 xERA, 2.99 FIP, 0.98 WHIP, 23.4% strikeout percentage, and a 5.6% walk rate in 228.2 innings of work.
Alcantara was excellent against both right- and left-handed batters, but was at his deadliest against righties, with a 2.85 FIP and a 26.8% strikeout percentage. Facing left-handed hitters, Alcantara’s strikeout percentage decreased dramatically, and his FIP ballooned slightly to 3.10.
Dominican Republic lineup
Simply, the Dominican Republic has one of the most star-studded lineups in this tournament. Per Jeff Passan, Julio Rodriguez will bat atop an order that also features Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Teoscar Hernandez, Rafael Devers, Wander Franco, Jeremy Pena, Jeimer Candelario, an Gary Sanchez.
Yet, despite all of the glamor in this lineup card, this is an offense that is much better equipped to handle right-handed pitching. Notably, Soto, Devers, Candelario, and Sanchez each had a .739 OPS or worse against southpaws in 2022.
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Venezuela
Martin Perez gets the start
Martin Perez is not often thought of as one of the better pitchers in the MLB, but he was outstanding in 2022 – finishing with a 2.89 ERA, 3.59 xERA, 3.27 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 20.6% strikeout percentage, and an 8.4% walk rate.
Perez was able to make major strides against right-handed batters in 2022, elevating his sinker and changeup usage at the expense of his cutter, fastball, and curveball, each of which was hit well by opposing batters.
Among pitchers with at least 145 innings of work last season, Perez ranked eighth in ground ball as a result of his emphasis on his sinker, paired with his ability to induce weak contact on a regular basis.
What to expect from Venezuela’s bats
The Venezuelan offense has a difficult task against Sandy Alcantara, but this will not be a walk in the park for Alcantara against these hitters either. Jose Altuve will bat leadoff, with Ronald Acuna Jr., Luis Arraez, Salvador Perez, Gleyber Torres, Andres Gimenez, Anthony Santander, Eugenio Suarez, and David Peralta rounding out the lineup card.
Still, it is worth noting that this lineup is far better equipped to hit left-handed pitching than they are to hit right-handed pitching.
Dominican Republic vs. Venezuela – Picks & Predictions
Last season, Martin Perez had a 2.25 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in the first inning of contests. Sandy Alcantara was similarly outstanding, with a 1.69 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP in the opening frame of his 32 starts.
Though both of these lineups possess an impressive amount of power potential and star reputation, both of these starting pitchers are also extremely good at what they do, especially early in games. Both Perez and Alcantara are adept at inducing ground balls and keeping the ball in the park when the ball is hit in the air.
It might not be the most fun wager to make in a game with this much offensive talent, but the NRFI has value in this spot.
PICK: No Run First Inning (+110, Bet365)
Image Credit: Getty Images