DraftKings Week 17 Salary Analysis and Picks: Daily Fantasy RSI
An Introduction to Fantasy RSI
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a commonly used financial technical indicator that measures the average gain during times when a company’s stock is trading up and compares it with the average loss when a company’s stock is trading down.
While the RSI is not predictive, an RSI above 50 is considered to mean that a stock is overvalued, while an RSI below 50 is considered to mean that a stock is undervalued.
This same indicator can be applied to DFS to help visualize salary momentum, and better yet, to help determine undervalued/overvalued players in relation to their salary.
With the final week of the regular season upon us, it’s time to run through our weekly salary analysis to see where we can identify values on Week 17’s 15-game slate.
DraftKings Most Overvalued Players Based on Fantasy RSI 
David Montgomery – $7700
After leading all RBs in fantasy points from Weeks 12-15, D-Mont posted a rather pedestrian 20.1 DraftKings points on 25 total touches against Jacksonville on Sunday. With a 15-touch floor, moderate receiving work, and goalline carries, Montgomery offers a tempting floor, but not quite the ceiling most tournament players are looking for. Montgomery has exceeded 30 DraftKings points just once this season, despite 5 games with 20+ touches. With an upcoming game against an opposing Packers’ defense that held Derrick Henry to 98 yards on 23 carries, Monty is a full-fade in a tough matchup as the Week 17’s 5th-most expensive RB.
David Johnson – $6800
Coming off the best two games of his Texans’ career, Johnson has been running hot with backup RB Duke Johnson sidelined with a neck injury. Even if Duke Johnson sits in Week 17, there are certainly reasons to fade David Johnson, especially at a season-high price tag of $6800. Just looking at David Johnson’s game logs tells you his last two weeks were serious outliers when compared to any other fantasy performance of his this season. He needed a career-high 11 receptions in Week 15 against IND to get to 27.3 DK points, and his monster outing in Week 16 was against one of the NFL’s worst defenses in Cincinnati. In the first 7 weeks of the season, David Johnson saw 15 or more touches in every game, and never scored more than 19.9 DraftKings’ points. Unless he’s sipped from the fountain of youth, it doesn’t make sense to chase these recent outlier performances now that he’s $6800.
Ben Roethlisberger – $6500
The starting QB of the team that throws the ball at the NFL’s 2nd-highest rate should be a top-10 fantasy asset, right? Not quite, unfortunately. Big Ben has more pass attempts than any other QB in the league but ranks 12th in QB DraftKings points. The reason? A major dip in Roethlisberger’s average depth of target (ADoT).
In 2017 Roethlisberger posted a 9.8 ADoT, which ranked t-7th in the NFL that season. 2018 saw a dip down to 8.1, good for t-22nd in the league. After missing the 2019 season with an injury, Roethlisberger’s ADoT fell again in 2020 to a meager 7.4, ranking 29th among QBs who have played at least 25% of their teams’ snaps. With such a high concentration of passes near the line of scrimmage, it’s no wonder Big Ben has only managed a single 30+ point DK performance this year. We know the volume is there for Roethlisberger, but his upside, relative to other similarly priced players, just isn’t worth $6500.
DraftKings Most Undervalued Players Based on Fantasy RSI 
Josh Jacobs – $6200
One of the NFL’s most game script sensitive RBs didn’t do much with his 13 carries against Miami on Sunday, scoring just 6.9 DraftKings points. With an upcoming matchup against a Broncos team that’s largely given up, Jacobs sets up well at his lowest price-point of the 2020 season. In his first matchup with Denver, Jacobs had his 2nd-best fantasy outing of the season, running for 112 yards and two TDs. More importantly, the Raiders are currently 2.5-point favorites, and Jacobs has averaged 19.0 DraftKings points in games the Raiders are favored in over the last two seasons. This is an excellent opportunity to grab the sophomore RB at a relative discount in a strong matchup.
Jalen Guyton – $3400
If Keenan Allen can’t suit up in Week 17, it’s Jalen Guyton time. Guyton led all LAC WRs in snaps in Week 16, thanks to the absence of Keenan Allen. While Guyton’s 3 reception, 43-yard performance in Week 16 didn’t turn any heads, he’s an every snap player who runs some of the deepest routes on the team (16.5 ADoT). Tied with Hunter Henry for 3rd on the team in target share since Week 13, Guyton shouldn’t go overlooked in what is likely to be a pass-happy matchup with KC in Week 17.
Amari Cooper – $5800
Andy Dalton seems to have gotten out of his slump, and the Cowboys offense finally looks competent as a result. Arguably the biggest benefactor: Amari Cooper. Cooper enters Week 17 at just $5800, which is only the 6th time since 2019 that he’s been cheaper than $6000. As the team leader in targets in a must-win game against the Giants, Cooper should get peppered with passes facing PFF’s 23rd highest-graded coverage defense. Cooper has also crushed when the Cowboys are favored over the last two seasons, averaging 18.7 DraftKings points. With most fantasy players chasing the big Week 16 outings of Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb, Cooper offers massive upside at around 10-15% ownership.
DK Metcalf – $7300
The 2nd-year WR has seen a $1300 price drop over the last two weeks after a shadow date with Jalen Ramsey in Week 16 and a poor outing against Washington in Week 15. Even so, Metcalf is arguably the biggest physical freak we’ve ever seen at the position and is just the 10th-most expensive WR in Week 17. Metcalf has proven he’s one of the highest upside fantasy WRs out there, with his best performance (43.1 DraftKings points) coming against the Seahawks’ Week 17 opponent in SF. The 49ers are middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs, but are bottom-5 in FPTs allowed on throws of 20+ yards, something Metcalf specializes in. Since Week 1, just 5 players have been targetted on more 20+ yard throws than Metcalf, and he’s recorded a league-high 480 receiving yards on those throws. For one reason or another, Metcalf seems largely forgotten about in fantasy discourse as of late. That should change in Week 17.
Kenyan Drake – $5400
Drake’s lack of receiving involvement has soured many fantasy players from rostering him, especially on a site that values receiving work as heavily as DraftKings. With backup RB Chase Edmonds recently suffering a hip injury, Drake may have the backfield all to himself in a matchup with the Rams in Week 17. Even if Edmonds can play, Drake ranks top-10 among RBs in carries inside the 5, red zone carries, TDs, and rushing yards. Goal-line work in the NFL’s 10th highest-scoring offense is pretty valuable, especially at a $5400 salary. With the added potential for Chase Edmonds receiving work, Drake should be in the conversation this week as a top-10 RB.