DraftKings Week 2 Salary Analysis and Picks: Daily Fantasy RSI
An Introduction to Fantasy RSI
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a commonly used financial technical indicator that measures the average gain during times when a company’s stock is trading up and compares it with the average loss when a company’s stock is trading down.
While the RSI is not predictive, an RSI above 50 is considered to mean that a stock is overvalued, while an RSI below 50 is considered to mean that a stock is undervalued.
This same indicator could be applied to DFS to help visualize salary momentum, and better yet, to assist in determining undervalued/overvalued players in relation to their salary.
Heading into Week 2, we possess a much better understanding of NFL player and team situations, which will aid us greatly in placing our DFS salary analysis into proper context to determine the best plays and fades on DraftKings.
DraftKings Most Overvalued Week 2 Players Based on Fantasy RSI
Preston Williams – $4800
Against New England, Williams only caught 2/6 targets for an abysmal 18.8 passer rating when targeted. After seeing a $300 salary increase ahead of Week 2, he now ranks as the most overvalued player according to Fantasy RSI. Facing a challenging Bills defense in a low total game doesn’t do Williams any favors either. Only a drastically improved performance from Ryan Fitzpatrick can make the 2nd-year WR worth a DraftKings roster spot again.
DeSean Jackson – $5100
Jackson played just 54% of the Eagles snaps while disappointing fantasy owners with 6.4 DraftKings points. After the game, head coach Doug Pederson said the WR’s snaps will “increase each week”, and despite the poor fantasy performance, Jackson’s DraftKings salary increased as well. The downfield nature of Jackson’s routes always makes him a compelling tournament play, but concerns over playing time, and usage (4th in PHI targets Week 1) make him a solid fade candidate at the increased salary.
Logan Thomas – $3600
Thomas saw an $800 salary increase after leading Washington in targets and playing 74% of the team’s snaps. As the unquestioned starter at TE, Thomas should assume a good portion of Washington’s 16% TE target rate from 2019. With such little competition for targets, Thomas is likely to remain priced in the $3000-$3800 range for the remainder of the season.
T.J. Hockenson – $5200
The $1000 price increase comes as no surprise after Hockenson caught 5/5 targets for 56 yards and one TD. Despite the 16.6 DraftKings points, Hockenson presents major playing time and usage concerns, especially at his current price tag. The sophomore TE tied for fourth on the Lions in targets on Sunday, and worse yet, only out-snapped TE Jesse James 50-39. Clearly a talented player, Hockenson will need a significantly higher target share and snap % in order to pay off any price above $5000.
Malcolm Brown – $5700
In one of the offseason’s most unknown backfield situations, Malcolm Brown helped the Rams to a Sunday night victory while leading the RBs in snaps (60%), carries (18), and targets (4) on his way to a $1200 price increase and a spot on the Fantasy RSI’s most overvalued list. Fantasy players can’t get too ahead of themselves on Brown, as the 27-year-old is likely to cede carries to rookie Cam Akers as the season progresses. With the recent price increase, Brown is simply too expensive to roster on DraftKings this week while in a three-man RB committee.
DraftKings Most Undervalued Week 2 Players Based on Fantasy RSI
Patrick Mahomes – $7700
Mahomes, and essentially the entire Chiefs passing offense, all pop as Fantasy RSI values after a dominant Week 1 victory against Houston. Heading halfway across the country to play the Chargers won’t slow Mahomes, who has averaged an incredible 27.7 DraftKings points on the road in his career. In DFS, it’s important not to overthink the layups: Mahomes is a top-tier Week 2 play any way you slice it.
Ezekiel Elliott – $8200
Zeke handled 22 carries and 4 targets in the Cowboys Week 1 loss to the LA Rams and is the week’s top Fantasy RSI value. The star rusher has a dream Week 2 matchup at home against Atlanta, a game that boasts Week 2’s second-highest total, at 52. High-total home games have been friendly to Zeke in the past, as he’s averaged 22.2 DraftKings points in home contests with an over/under of 46 or higher in his career. Elliot is one of the slate’s top options at RB.
Deshaun Watson – $6400
Watson has been cheaper than $6400 just once since the 2019 season. While his performance against Kansas City in the season opener didn’t do his fantasy owners any favors, Watson sets up as a DraftKings darling in Week 2. Houston’s home matchup with Baltimore offers the slate’s highest total with the Texans currently a touchdown underdog. The Ravens borderline unstoppable offense should force Deshaun Watson to drastically increase his passing volume just to keep up. Furthermore, Watson has averaged 25 DraftKings points at home in his career and was 6-0 following a loss in 2019. The Texans field general is the DraftKings top QB value this week.
Christian Kirk – $4300
The Arizona WR saw a $700 salary reduction after recording just one reception in the team’s upset victory over San Francisco. Kirk won’t earn the 23% target share he did in 2019 with DeAndre Hopkins in the mix, but he did play 76% of the team’s snaps in Week 1, so the Cardinals obviously view him as an important piece of the offense. Kirk led 2019 Arizona with 17 targets 20+ yards down the field, making him a compelling tournament ceiling play at a modest $4300 price tag.
Keenan Allen – $5700
Tyrod Taylor’s first game under center didn’t provide much usage for Allen, who ended Week 1’s contest against Cincinnati with 7.7 DK points and a $700 salary reduction for Week 2. Facing off against the Chiefs as touchdown underdogs should boost Allen’s target floor significantly this week. He hasn’t been cheaper than $5700 on DraftKings since Week 10 of 2017 and has averaged 19.5 DraftKings points as a 5+ point underdog in his career. Allen is as close as you’ll get to a ‘free square’ at the WR position this week.
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